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OFFICE OF SCIENCE Energy Sources, Uses and Trends Teaching About Energy Teaching About Energy April 2011 Nicholas B. Woodward Geosciences Research Program Office of Basic Energy Sciences

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2 What Kind of Energy? Transportation Light Heat Other ? Where? Why?

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3 Energy Objectives? Energy Security: Issues Domestic Coal; Significant hydrocarbon imports; Uranium? Answers Hybrid Vehicles, Coal to Liquids, Oil/Tar Sands Environmental Quality: Pollution Control Issues Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act Answers NG fired power plants, CAF standards, Hybrid Vehicles, Zero Emissions Vehicles Climate Change Issues Greenhouse Gas Emissions/Decarbonation Answers Non-Greenhouse gas emitting power, Zero Emission Vehicles Industrial Approach over 40 Years Efficiency pollution/emissions not created need not be cleaned up or have cost penalties.

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World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 1990-2035 ( quadrillion Btu) http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html 250 200 150 100 50 0 History Projections Liquids Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear 1990 2000 2007 2015 20252035 ~ 500 Quads total

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World Oil Consumption 2009 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/world-oil-consumption-001.jpg Thousands of barrels a day China 8,625 Total World 84,077 US 18,686 Japan 4,396 Russia 2,695

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6 Recoverable Resource Depends on Price Energy-Reserve Revisions, Dec 16th, 2008, by John Donovan THE WALL STREET JOURNAL John Donovan Falling Oil, Natural-Gas Prices Render Certain Proved Stockpiles as Uneconomic Many companies will likely be forced to declare that big chunks of their oil and gas reserves are uneconomic. That could have wide-ranging implications for oil companies, which need to show increasing reserves to attract investors and, in some cases, to serve as collateral on loans. Oil and gas producers must report annually the size of their proved reserves that is, how much oil and gas they believe they can produce from the fields they control. Under securities rules, they can include only oil that can be produced economically a calculation based on oil and gas prices at the end of their year, usually Dec. 31.

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U.S. Energy Flow, 1950 (Quads) U.S. Energy Flow, 1950 (Quads) At midcentury, the U.S. used 1/3 of the primary energy used today and with greater overall efficiency ~ 34 Quads of Energy 12 TV, no interstate system ~50% Efficiency

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8 8 Energy sources and consumption sectors in the U.S.

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Domestic Production: 71.7 Quads Imports: 34.6 Quads Consumption: 101.6 Quads Adjustments ~1 Exports 5.4 Quads Energy Supply (Quads) Energy Consumption U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 About 1/3 of U.S. primary energy is imported ~ 100 Quads of Energy (Quads = Quadrillion BTU = 10 15 BTU)

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10 Supply 107 Quads U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 (Quads) U.S. Energy Flow, 2007 (Quads) 85% of primary energy is from fossil fuels Domestic 67% Imports 33% Residential Commercial Industrial Consume 102 Quads Nuclear 8% Renewable 7% Fossil 85% Transportation 10

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U.S. Energy Flow, 2006 (Quads) U.S. Energy Flow, 2006 (Quads) >70% of primary energy for the transportation sector and >60% of primary energy for electricity generation/use is lost Source: LLNL 2008; data are based on DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to LLNL and DOE. 11 ~44% Efficiency

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US Transportation Challenge Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release Overview Release Date: December 16, 2010 | Full Report Release Date: April 26, 2011 | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2011); http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/executive_summary.cfmReport Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2011) http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/executive_summary.cfm Crude Oil Production: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.htm http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.htm Annual US Oil Production (Barrels per day) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5,102 5,064 4,950 5,361 5,512 Annual US Oil Imports all countries (Barrels per day) 13,707 13,468 12,915 11,691 11,753 12

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CAF Standards History 13 MODEL YEAR 1977198019851990199520002001200220032004 FUEL ECON. STAND. MPG N/A2028 27.5 CAFE, MPG 192428 29 3029.1 NEW PASSENGER CAR FLEET AVERAGE CHARACTERISTICS http://www.nhtsa.gov/cars/rules/cafe/NewPassengerCarFleet. htm We are making progress. Are we making progress fast enough? Are hybrid vehicles/electric vehicles the answer? Fleet turnover of about 10 years.

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14 Energy Storage Challenge breakthroughs needed x2-5 increase in battery energy density x10-20 increase through chemical storage + fuel cells Energy/weight Energy/volume 0 10 20 30 010203040 Energy Storage Density gasoline batteries super capacitors Electrify transportation - plug-in hybrids and electric cars Batteries: 30-50x less energy density than gasoline Beyond batteries: chemical storage + fuel cells = electricity Impossible dream: x10 improvement ethanol combustion electrical storage methanol hydrogen compounds (target) compressed hydrogen gas chemical + fuel cells = electricity electro-chemical storage chemical storage http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/BES AC/Meetings.html#0209 http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/BES AC/Meetings.html#0209 Crabtree presentation ALSO: Storage needed to handle intermittent solar and wind electricity generation

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15 In the News NY Times Lithium: February 3, 2009 In Bolivia, Untapped Bounty Meets Nationalism By SIMON ROMEROSIMON ROMERO UYUNI, BOLIVIA In the rush to build the next generation of hybrid or electric cars, a sobering fact confronts both automakers and governments seeking to lower their reliance on foreign oil: almost half of the worlds lithium, the mineral needed to power the vehicles, is found here in Bolivia a country that may not be willing to surrender it so easily. Japanese and European companies are busily trying to strike deals to tap the resource, but a nationalist sentiment about the lithium is building quickly in the government of President Evo Morales, an ardent critic of the United States who has already nationalized Bolivias oil and natural gas industries.

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US Electricity Profile EIA:http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat2p2.html Energy Source # of Generators Nameplate Capacity Coal 1,470 336,040 Petroleum3,743 62,394 Natural Gas5,439 449,389 Other Gases 105 2,663 Nuclear 104 105,764 Hydroelectric3,992 77,644 Wind 389 16,596 Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic38 503 Wood and Wood Derived Fuels346 7,510 Geothermal2243,233 Other Biomass1,299 4,834 Pumped Storage 151 20,355 Other42 866 Total 17, 342 1,087,791 Baseload Power ~ Capacity ~ 2/3 Coal always on A new fossil fueled power plant costs from $1-2 Billion; Nuclear $10 B +

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US Electricity Challenge - Can This Change? EIA:http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat2p2.html Energy Source # of Generators Nameplate Capacity Coal 1,470 336,040 Petroleum3,743 62,394 Natural Gas5,439 449,389 Other Gases 105 2,663 Nuclear 104 105,764 Hydroelectric3,992 77,644 Wind 389 16,596 Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic38 503 Wood and Wood Derived Fuels346 7,510 Geothermal2243,233 Other Biomass1,299 4,834 Pumped Storage 151 20,355 Other42 866 Total 17, 342 1,087,791 Baseload Power ~ Capacity ~ 2/3 Coal A new fossil fueled power plant costs from $1-2 Billion; Nuclear $10 B +

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18 Trends in Energy Bulk Commodity Based Energy to Technology Based Energy Distributed Energy to Centralized Energy to Distributed Energy Fireplaces to 1000Mw Electric Power Plants to Solar Cells or Ground Source Heat Pumps on Homes Distributed Energy to Centralized Energy Horses to Cars to Mass Transit

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19 Example of energy lost during conversion and transmission. Imagine that the coal needed to illuminate an incandescent light bulb contains 100 units of energy when it enters the power plant. Only two units of energy eventually light the bulb. The remaining 98 units are lost along the way, primarily as heat. Overall Efficiency of an Incandescent Bulb 2% Lighting accounts for 22% of all electricity usage in the U.S. No energy loss value assigned to getting the coal from the ground to the power plant (mining, transportation, etc) Waste heat

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Updating the Electricity System? Fleet turnover maybe over 50 years Number of Generating Units in Portfolio (59) Age of Duke Energy Generating Capacity (41,000 MW) 57% of Generation Capacity is Greater than 30 Years Old

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Source: LLNL 2008; data are based on DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to LLNL and DOE. 21 Fuel Switching End-use Efficiency Carbon Capture and Sequestration Electric Energy Storage Zero-net-emissions Electricity Generation Conservation Key Research and Development Areas Climate/Environment Impacts Electricity Distribution

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22 Earth Resources and Alternate Energy? ElementWorld Production Material Needs for 20GW/yr % of Current Prodcution Indium250Mt/a400Mt/a160% Selenium2,200 MT/a800 MT/a36% Gallium150 MT/a70 MT/a47% Tellurium450 MT/a (2000 MT/a unused today) 930 MT/a38% of total Cadmium26,000 MT/a800 MT/a3% Also of interest are Neodymium (for high performance permanent magnets in motors), Indium (transparent conducting oxide for flat panel displays, etc.), Gallium (used in a variety of solid state lighting devices), Gadolinium (potentially of use in high performance magnetic refrigeration), Cobalt (also used in some Li ion batteries), Samarium (used in SaCo permanent magnets with better temperature characteristics than NdFeB), etc. Elemental Needs for large scale Photovoltaic production in the U.S.

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Source: LLNL 2008; data are based on DOE/EIA-0384(2006). Credit should be given to LLNL and DOE. 23 Fuel Switching Carbon Capture and Sequestration How Will Earth Sciences Influence Energy? Climate/Environment Impacts Water Resources for Electricity Generation New Energy Minerals Find New Resources, ex. Coal Bed Methane, Methane Hydrates Water for biofuels Waste Disposal Computers Solar cells Fuel Rods Produced Water CO2

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A lot of CO 2 Sequestration Sites Will Be Required for Decarbonation of Fossil Fuel Power Plants Options for storing CO 2 in underground geological formations for 330,000 MW of electric energy generation. After Benson and Cook (2005).

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25 They exist only because of a regulatory requirement They are not required for the normal functioning of an engine They affect how an internal combustion engine now can operate There have been several generations of improvements They have created a new business opportunity where none existed CCS - Carbon Capture and Sequestration From the energy source Into the environment

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Cost ($ per ton CO 2 ) 321 US CO 2 emission avoided (gigatons/year) 40 0 -40 -80 electronics and lighting efficient cars and trucks efficient new buildings combined heat/power power generation/industry other other incl. nuclear agriculture, forestry, land use improve existing buildings renewable energy carbon sequestration 40% of current US emissions! http://mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/pdf/US_ghg_final_report.pdf Scalability ? Estimated Cost of Carbon Reductions

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27 For details on the assumptions underlying the options, go to www.wri.org/usenergyoption Power Sector (this size corresponds to 20 B kWh) Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 100,000 barrels of oil per day) Conclusions: Energy Security Vs Climate Impact 27

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28 Conclusions: Improving Energy Education Create an Informed Public on the different roles to be played by: Energy efficiency and conservation Green energy technologies Improvements of existing energy (fossil fuel, hydropower and nuclear) power systems Greenhouse gas emission reductions Traditional disciplinary system at University level (such as Geology) versus a more integrated, multidisciplinary approach (Energy Systems) Provide training and inspiration for the next generation of scientists, engineers, policymakers, and citizens. CURE NIMBY

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29 Conclusions: Key Science Education Questions What do we want our students to know ? Why do we want them to know it ? General Education vs Science Majors How do we provide context? Do we provide maximum information and hope some sticks? or Do we provide the bare bones and demand it all sticks? Undergraduate level objectives ? Graduate level objectives? Career level objectives?

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Illumination of the Night Sky 2/3 of the U.S population has lost naked-eye visibility of the Milky Way http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=1438l 30 Conclusion -Where to from here? The current energy grid has the brain of a worm multiple ganglion without central direction.and wastes more than half of its energy

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31 Web resources: http://www.science.doe.gov/SC-2/Deputy_Director-speeches-presentations.htm http://www.science.doe.gov/SC-2/Deputy_Director-speeches-presentations.htm http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/bes.html http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/bes.html http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/archives/summaries.html http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/archives/summaries.html http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/reports/list.html http://www.sc.doe.gov/bes/reports/list.html http://www.fossil.energy.gov/ http://www.fossil.energy.gov/ http://www.eere.energy.gov/ http://www.eere.energy.gov/ http://www.eia.doe.gov/ http://www.eia.doe.gov/ http://www.energy.gov/sciencetech/carbonsequestration.htm http://www.energy.gov/sciencetech/carbonsequestration.htm Other Reports; Grand Challenges for Earth Resources Engineering Engineering applied to the discovery, development and environmentally responsible production of subsurface earth resources. NAS BESR - November 2010 (not yet available on the web) Grand Challenges for Engineering, National Academy of Engineering report 2008 Facing the Hard Truths about Energy, National Petroleum Council report 2007 Our Common Future, World Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford University Press 1987 Source Material