office of coast survey 2013 nos coastal modeling development and performance office of coast...
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Office of Coast Survey
2013 NOS Coastal Modeling Development and Performance
Office of Coast Survey/Development Laboratory,Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services
Jesse C. Feyen ([email protected])4 December 2013
Office of Coast Survey
NOS’ Operational Coastal Modeling
• Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Laboratory / Marine Modeling and Analysis Programs– Focused on research and development– POCs: [email protected], [email protected]
• Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services / Oceanographic Division / Planning Monitoring and Analysis Branch– Focused on transition, operations, and delivery– POC: [email protected]
• Work with NCEP, particularly NCO and EMC, on operations• Collaboration with academic developers of FVCOM, ROMS, and
ADCIRC models
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http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html
Office of Coast Survey
Existing NOS OFS Running on WCOSS
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OFS Name Model Domain NCO Implementation
CBOFS Chesapeake Bay 03/2011
DBOFS Delaware Bay 03/2011
TBOFS Tampa Bay 03/2011
NGOFS Northern Gulf of Mexico 03/2012
CREOFS Columbia River 09/2012
GLOFS 5 Great Lakes 12/2010
ESTOFS Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico extratropical storm surge
09/2012
Office of Coast Survey
FY13 Accomplishments
• All NOS “Oceanographic Operational Forecast Systems” (OFS) transitioned to WCOSS• OFS output disseminated in SHEF format at
NOS water level gauge locations
• Inundation• Expanded coverage of HFIP-supported
experimental tropical surge predictions using ADCIRC Surge Guidance System
• East Coast and Gulf Coast coverage
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Office of Coast Survey
FY14 Plans
• NOS OFS to be transitioned to NCEP– 2 nested Northern Gulf of Mexico models: NWGOFS and
NEGOFS– San Francisco Bay (SFBOFS)
• Inundation– Extratropical Storm Surge (ESTOFS) – Pacific
transitioned to operations– Experimental real-time tropical storm surge ensemble
predictions coupled to experimental hurricane guidance
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Office of Coast Survey
FY15-16 Planned Implementations • NOS OFS to be transitioned to NCEP
– Cook Inlet, AK (CIOFS)– Great Lakes OFS upgrades– NE Shelf/Gulf of Maine OFS (support for HAB pred.)
• Inundation– Sandy Supplemental: Development and Transition of
ADCIRC Surge Ensemble for Atlantic Tropical and Extratropical Inundation
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Office of Coast Survey
Office of Coast Survey
NWGOFSNEGOFS
NGOFSCoastal/Shelf Models
(Bridge between Global model and Estuarine/Bay
models)
Bay/Estuarine Models (high-resolution to
resolve navigational needs)
Nested Operational Forecast Systems for the Northwest and Northeast Gulf of Mexico
Operational FY14 Q3
Office of Coast Survey
NEGOFSElement Size: 45 m – 2160 mVertical Sigma Layers: 20
Pascagoula: 45 – 1050 m Mobile Bay: 45 m – 1.5 kmGulfport: 56 m – 986 m
Office of Coast Survey
Galveston Bay: 80 – 530 m Sabine Neches: 60 – 540 m
Lake Charles/Lake Calcasieu: 70 – 560 m
Houston/Galveston PORTS
Sabine Neches PORTSLake Charles PORTS
Matagorda Bay PORTS
Element Size: 60 m – 3.5 kmRivers: 2220 Sigma Vertical Layers
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Office of Coast Survey
Products from NWGOFS
Water Level
Surface Temperature Surface Salinity
Surface Currents
Office of Coast Survey
Products from NEGOFS
Water Level
Surface Temperature Surface Salinity
Surface Currents
Office of Coast Survey
San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System (SFBOFS)
Horizontal Resolution: 15 m – 1500 m20 Vertical Sigma Layers
Bathymetry in meters
Operational FY14 Q2
Office of Coast Survey
Products from SFBOFSTidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/sfbofs/sfbofs.html
Water Level
Surface Temperature
Surface Salinity
Surface Currents
Office of Coast Survey
Products from SFBOFSTidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/sfbofs/sfbofs.html
Water Level
Surface TemperatureSurface Salinity
Surface Currents
Office of Coast Survey
Storm Surge Modeling Efforts• Using ADCIRC model for extratropical (e.g.,
nor’easter) and tropical (e.g., hurricane)– State of the art model in development and use by
academia, private industry, USACE, FEMA, Navy– Uses large scale unstructured triangular grids
with efficient localized resolution – Can combine surge, tides, rivers and wave input– Uses latest modeling physics– Surge model upgrades coordinated with NWS
(e.g., Sandy Supplemental) to augment probabilistic approach with faster, simpler SLOSH model
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Office of Coast Survey
• Computes ET surge and tides for forecasting and coupling to NWS’ WAVEWATCHIII® wave model
• Coastal resolution averages 3 km• Hourly output of 6 hr nowcast + 180
hr forecast 4X per day• East Coast operational in 2012• Pacific model in development,
operational in FY14 Q3
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml
http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/
Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS)
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Office of Coast Survey
-123 -122.5 -122 -121.537
37.5
38
38.5
Longitude
Latit
ude
Total WL RMSE (m)
9415144
9437540
9440569
9440910
9442396
9444090 9444900
9446484
9447130
9449424
9449880
9450460
9452210
9452400
9452634
9454050
9454240
9455090
9455500
9455760
9455920
9459881
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
-125 -124 -123 -122 -121
46
47
48
49
50
Longitude
Latit
ude
Total WL RMSE (m)
9415144
9437540
9440569
9440910
944239694440909444900
9446484
9447130
9449424
9449880
9450460
9452210
9452400
9452634
9454050
9454240
9455090
9455500
9455760
9455920
9459881
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
-138 -136 -134 -132 -130
52
54
56
58
60
Longitude
Latit
ude
Total WL RMSE (m)
9415144
9437540
94405699440910
944239694440909444900
94464849447130
94494249449880
9450460
9452210
9452400
9452634
9454050
9454240
9455090
9455500
9455760
9455920
9459881
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
-180 -160 -140 -120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Longitude
Latit
ude
Total WL RMSE (m)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
-154 -152 -150 -148 -14654
56
58
60
62
Longitude
Latit
ude
Total WL RMSE (m)
9415144
9437540
94405699440910
944239694440909444900
94464849447130
94494249449880
9450460
9452210
9452400
9452634
9454050
9454240
9455090
9455500
9455760
9455920
9459881
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Water Level Skill Assessment
• 15-month period (11/16/2004 - 2/28/2006) covers two winter seasons
• GFS wind and pressure every 6 hrs
Office of Coast Survey
Water Level Skill Assessment
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
TotalTidalSurge
CO-OPS Station Number
Hawaii
So Cali
Port C
hicag
o
Cook I
nlet
Puget Sd/SE AK
Testing showed that tidal accuracy did not improve with increased resolution, adjusted bottom friction, or increased tidal potential term.
Office of Coast Survey
-180 -160 -140 -120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Longitude
Latit
ude
Surge WL RMSE (m)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
-155 -150 -145
54
56
58
60
62
64
Longitude
Latit
ude
Surge WL RMSE (m)
9440569
94557609455920
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
-125 -124 -123 -12246
46.5
47
47.5
48
48.5
49
LongitudeLa
titud
e
Surge WL RMSE (m)
9440569
9455760
9455920
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Water Level Skill Assessment
Skill in surge WL close to goal of 0.20 m RMSE
Office of Coast Survey
Sandy Supplemental: ADCIRC Ensemble Tropical Surge Prediction• Development of operational ensemble of
ADCIRC surge+tide predictions of coastal inundation for TC and ET storms
• Predict tropical and extratropical inundation– TC ensemble members based on track perturbation– Potential ET ensemble members: GEFS, NDFD,
NAM, ECMWF, SREF
• Experimental in FY15, operational in FY16
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Potential coverage
Office of Coast Survey 22
Office of Coast Survey
1.Graphics on CO-OPS Web Site: 1.Time Series Plots (24 hour nowcast and 48 forecast) of water levels,
currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds at selected locations (all PORTS and NWLON stations and more)
2.Contour and vector map plots and animation of water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds
2.Model data set on OPeNDAP and NOAA’s WOC:
station/point NetCDF files (6-minute output): time series model nowcast and forecast at selected stations for water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, surface winds
Field/gridded model output NetCDF file (hourly output) 2-D water levels and surface winds, 3-D currents, temperature and salinity on every model grid.
Deliverable Modeling Products:
Office of Coast Survey
Objectives of NOS Operational Forecast Systems• Support of safe & efficient navigation
• Water levels for under-keel clearance• Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability
• Emergency response • Oil spills (OR&R)• Search & Rescue• Homeland Security
• For environmentally sound management of the coastal zone
• Ecological: hypoxia, HABs, pathogens, …• Marine geospatial applications
Salinity
SST Sea Nettles
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Office of Coast Survey
Customer Feedback on OFS
• MD Pilots (J. Smith)– “Pilots are delighted with the modeling, forecasting, and real time
PORTS data… We do our voyage planning with a heavy reliance on CBOFS forecasting and modeling…”
• DE Bay/River Pilots (S. Roberts)– “(DBOFS) allows us to identify tidal and wind conditions that may
prevent the safe passage of deep loaded tankers before they are scheduled to get underway. It also allows our customers to identify conditions which may necessitate adjusting the draft of a ship to allow for less than adequate depths in advance saving them costs due to delays and aborted passages.”
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Office of Coast Survey
Customer Feedback on OFS
• USCG (A. Allen)– “… using NGOFS… to assist in the search for CG personnel lost
in the crash of CG6535 in Mobile Bay… planning underwater searches based on the bottom currents from NGOFS”
• NWS (B. Schneider, WFO Portland)– “Receiving accurate model output for the Columbia River Bar
and Tillamook River Bar is central to WFO Portland’s effort to improving forecasts for these areas”
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Office of Coast Survey
Experimental High Res Surge Ensemble• ADCIRC Surge Guidance System
– Automated system for ADCIRC
• NOAA tested in Gulf of Mexico in 2012 on experimental HFIP computer “tjet”– 5 to 10 member ensemble
• Expanded coverage in 2013 to prepare for transition to operations– Tested during Karen– Output delivered via CSDL
OPeNDAP and VizTool
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Model grid
Model topobathy in Chesapeake
http://coastalmodeldev.data.noaa.gov/thredds/catalog.html