Office for National Statistics’

Subnational Population Projections:

2014-based

- HARTLEPOOL Report

Analysis of the official population projections over the next

20 years, including the future age structure and the

components of change.

(produced January 2017)

1) Aim of report

2) Things to know

3) Key points summary

4) Population size and recent growth

5) Future population size and growth

6) Components of growth

7) Sex and age structure of projected population

8) Assessment of the projections in the first year

9) Comparison to previous projections

10) ONS’s variant projections

11) Links to the sources and contact details for more information

CONTENTS

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• This report is aimed at those making local-level policy and planning decisions.

• Under the policy of devolution, Tees Valley has been given more powers to determine policies that can impact the local economy; crucial to the success of these policies is understanding the dynamics of the current and future population. Total population growth (and the components of that growth), the future working age population, and the flows of younger workers, all influence the local economy. Different demographic composition is one of the reasons why emerging local economic and social policies differ across the country.

• This report includes analysis of the ONS 2014-based projections for Hartlepool, concentrating on the changes over the next 20 years, including information on the changing age profile.

• The components of population change are examined, including comparisons with the previous set of projections and the latest population estimates, showing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting the future population and the impact changes to fertility, mortality and migration have.

• ONS have produced some variant projections for the first time and these are included in this report.

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1) AIM OF REPORT

• The latest Office for National Statistics‘ (ONS) Subnational Population Projections for England (SNPP) were released on 25th May 2016. The projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population at local authority level. ONS publish projections every 2 years.

• They are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government (such as changes to migration law) or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographics.

• The projections take the 2014 mid-year population estimates as their starting point*. For each year of the projections, the population is aged on by one year, assumed local fertility and mortality rates are applied for the number of projected births and deaths, and then adjusted for migration into and out of each local authority. Assumed levels of fertility, mortality and migration for each local authority are derived from observed values during the previous 5 years (6 years for international migration). The projections are then constrained to the 2014-based national population projections for England, which are also informed by expert advice on future changes to births, deaths and migration.

• Projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward due to the inherent uncertainty of demographic behaviour. This is particularly so for smaller geographical areas and detailed age and sex breakdowns.

• Alternative scenarios can be produced by TVCA to show the possible variation in population size, most commonly based upon different trend periods, such as over the last 10 years, or based upon different assumptions, i.e. if fertility rates fall, net gains from migration. ONS have published some variant projections.

• The Department for Communities and Local Government’s household projections are formed from the population projections; these are then used by local authorities as a starting point for their Local Plans.

*The mid-2015 population estimates have since been released.

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2) THINGS TO KNOW

Future population size

• Hartlepool’s population is projected to grow steadily, by between 100-210 per annum.

• The projections are lower than previous iterations: 2034 population = 96,000 in 2014-SNPP, 97,100 in 2012-SNPP, 97,300 in 2010-SNPP.

• The projections performed well in the first year, with just a slight over-projection (200) compared with the ONS mid-2015 population estimates.

Components of growth

• Projected growth is expected to be mainly from migration due to reduced growth from natural change being projected, resulting in population loss from natural change from 2030.

Migration by age

• The largest net loss is projected to be of 19-21 year olds to other parts of the UK and the largest net gains are of 22-29 year olds. Some of these will be students who leave Hartlepool for university and then return when their studies are completed.

3) KEY POINTS SUMMARY

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Age structure of projected population

Aged 0-15s:

• The number of 0-15 year olds is projected to continue to increase until 2021 [mainly due to the higher number of births in the mid 2000s/early 2010s]. The numbers are then expected to decrease gradually each year.

Aged 65+:

• By 2034, over 1 in 4 of the population is projected to be aged 65+. The considerable increase seen in the number of over 65s is projected to continue by an average of 400 per annum, reaching 25,000 by 2034 (increase of 47%/8,000). The number of over 85s is projected to more than double by 2034 to reach 4,600.

Working age population:

• The number of 16-64 year olds is projected to continue to decrease by an average of 200 per annum, from 57,800 in 2014 to 53,900 in 2034 (-7%).

• Meanwhile the numbers of 65-74 year olds is projected to increase. These will become more economically active as State Pension Age (SPA) rises [women’s SPA is increasing gradually to be same as for men in 2018, then both to 66 in 2020, and 67 in 2026].

• The higher SPA is projected to increase labour supply by 4,200 in 2034. SPA changes maintain the number of working age residents at between 56,300 and 58,300 over the 20 year period.

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3) Key Points Summary continued…

4) POPULATION SIZE AND RECENT GROWTH

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The base population used in the projections is at mid-2014 (92,600). The mid-2015 population has since been released and is estimated to be 92,500; showing a slight decrease in population as was also seen between 2013 & 2014.

Change in population between 2011 and 2014 –

ordered by percentage change

Change (in

000’s) % change

London 334.3 4.1%

East 156.0 2.7%

South East 221.0 2.6%

South West 122.5 2.3%

England 1,209.4 2.3%

East Midlands 100.0 2.2%

West Midlands 104.6 1.9%

Yorkshire and the Humber 71.8 1.4%

Stockton-on-Tees 2.3 1.2%

North of England 171.1 1.1%

North West 77.0 1.1%

Wales 28.2 0.9%

North East 22.3 0.9%

Hartlepool 0.5 0.5%

Middlesbrough 0.7 0.5%

Tees Valley 3.2 0.5%

Redcar and Cleveland - 0.2 -0.1%

Darlington - 0.2 -0.2%

The population of Hartlepool has grown slightly since 2011, by 500. Hartlepool had the second highest growth rate in Tees Valley, however it was much lower than the growth in the North and England as a whole.

After seeing a declining population through the de-industrialisation of the 1980s and 1990s, the number of people living in Hartlepool has generally been on an upward trend since the turn of the millennium.

Population started to grow primarily due to increased natural change and no longer experiencing an outwards net migration flow with the rest of the UK.

Link to TVCA mid-2015 population report

5A) FUTURE POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH

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The population is projected to increase by 1,900 by 2024, and then an additional 1,400 by 2034. Total projected population growth is 3.6% across the 20 year period, with an average annual growth rate of 0.18% per annum.

The low population growth in Hartlepool is projected to continue.

Mid 2004 Mid 2014 Mid 2024 Mid 2034

90,300 92,600 94,500 96,000

Hartlepool’s population is projected to grow by a slightly smaller annual amount than in the mid 2000s-early 2010s. It is projected to grow by between 100-210 per annum.

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5B) POPULATION ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES

Growth is projected in all Tees Valley local

authorities apart from Redcar and Cleveland

6A) COMPONENTS OF GROWTH

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The projected key differences which impact the future population are:

• Reduced growth from natural change and losses from natural change from 2030 – mainly due to a slight decrease in the expected number of births; and

• Increased gains from migration.

Migration makes up 48% of the expected growth in England by 2034 (the remainder being from natural change), and 43% in the North of England. Whereas in Hartlepool 70% of the projected growth is expected to be from migration due to the increasingly adverse effect on population size from natural change.

Hartlepool

Crude rates per 1,000

population 2004 2014 2024 2034

Births 12.2 11.9 10.6 10.4 Deaths 11.1 9.7 10.6 10.4

Migration 1.1 -3.2 1.1 2.1

6B) DRIVERS OF GROWTH

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The main cause of the declining population through the 1990s was the net outflows of residents.

Small net inflows were seen in the 2000s with almost balanced migration being seen in the early part of this decade; net migration flows in the last two years have differed. A small net migration inflow is projected, which increases slightly over time.

Reducing growth from natural change is projected, with losses from 2030.

6C) FERTILITY

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Over the past 10 years, fertility rates have generally been rising faster among women in their thirties and forties than for women in their twenties, so mean age at childbirth has continued to rise. Mean age at motherhood nationally is projected to increase from 28.4 years for women born in 1965 to its long-term level of 30.6 years for those born from 2015 onwards. However Hartlepool and Tees Valley experiences much higher fertility in the younger age group (15-29) than nationally and much lower in the older age group (30+). The projections retain these relative differences in standardised fertility rates. The differences mean that the timings of the peaks and troughs of births in Tees Valley may vary compared to the national picture.

For England, the long-term average number of children per woman is assumed to be 1.90, this is also known as the total fertility rate (TFR). Historically (apart from in the last couple of years) there have been more births per woman in Hartlepool than nationally. In the last couple of years the TFR has been as low as it was in the late 1990s/early 2000s (1.80 in 2013/14) in contrast with the highs in the mid to late 2000s of 2.00-2.10. The reduction is mainly due to the decrease in fertility rates of the under 24 year olds. In the projections TFR increases to 1.88 in 2023 & then remains at around this rate. In Hartlepool the younger age groups are projected to see further decreases in fertility rates but not to the same extent as in previous years. The fertility rates of the over 30 age groups are projected to increase slightly.

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Link to TVCA Fertility Analysis

Latest data for TV LAs and comparators available under Health on Interactive Area Profile

6D) MORTALITY

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Hartlepool has higher mortality rates than those nationally and these have not generally converged over time. Improvements to mortality have been seen in Hartlepool in line with national trends and have increased faster for men, leading to a narrowing in the differences in life expectancy.

The assumptions used in the national 2014-based projections are that annual rates of improvement in mortality rates would converge to 1.2% for most ages in 2039, mirroring the improvements seen over the last 50 years. Assumptions are that national improvements will be seen locally but that the relative difference in standardised death rates will remain.

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Link to TVCA Mortality Analysis

Latest data for TV LAs and comparators available under Health on Interactive Area Profile

6E) MIGRATION Migration is the most difficult component to project, with often quite large variations each year. Future international migration assumptions were made before the EU referendum. The long-term migration forecasts made by experts will be revised in the 2016-based projections.

Migration trends with the rest of the UK have varied over time, from large net outflows in the 1990s, small inflows in the 2000s, to small outflows in more recent years. Almost balanced flow is projected over the next 5 years, and then a small net gain from internal migration, increasing over time.

Hartlepool has generally seen small gains of international migrants since the introduction of freedom of movement for EU Accession Countries in 2004. Projections are for very small net IN flows.

Net migration is projected to be consistently into Hartlepool. There are projected to be net losses of

19-21 year olds to other parts of the UK (around 150 per annum) but net gains of 22-29 year olds (150 per annum). Many of these are likely to be students.

Link to TVCA Migration Analysis

Projected migration trends are heavily impacted by the age profile of the existing population, i.e. less outwards flows with an older population. The age profile of future migrants are based upon past trends.

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7A) PROJECTED POPULATION BY SEX

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The number of males has increased at a faster rate, 3.4% more males in 2014 than 2004 compared with 1.7% females. This is in part due to greater improvements in male life expectancy and thus the number of males to females aged over 65 has increased. Future population growth of males is projected to be much greater than females, resulting in the number of males and females being similar in 2034 (5.9% more males and only 1.5% more females by 2034). This is partly due to a projected greater net flow inwards of males than females, especially international migration.

Male to female ratio

Mid 2004

Mid 2014

Mid 2024

Mid 2034

0-15 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.07

16-64 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.02

65+ 0.75 0.82 0.88 0.90

All ages 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.00

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While the changing age profile is affected by the components of change, a major factor is the size of each age cohort as they move through the human lifespan, i.e. there are more people at some ages than others. This is influenced by both recent and historic levels of births, migration and deaths.

Higher numbers of older people, due to improvements in life expectancy and the large cohort born in the 1960s [children of the post WWII baby boom] moving up into this age group.

Reduced numbers aged 45-60 in 2034 as the large cohort born in the 1960s move up out of this age group.

Smaller numbers of primary school aged and larger numbers of secondary school aged children, following the low births in the late 90s/early 00s and higher births until 2012.

Larger numbers aged 35-42 in 2034 than in 2014.

Notes refer to trends seen for both male and females regardless of where arrow is pointing 7B) SHAPE OF HARTLEPOOL IN 20 YEARS

Due to immigration, the pyramid for England is wider in 2034 for those aged 20-45 compared with the same cohort (aged 0-25) in 2014. The majority of cohorts in Hartlepool reduce in size as they age but the 39-45 cohort in 2034 is expected to be larger.

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7C) BROAD AGE STRUCTURE

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As well as the local differences in age-specific

fertility, mortality and migration rates, the age

structure of the population is an important

influence on future population growth. For

example, a younger age structure, such as in

London, means accelerated growth from more

births and less deaths, but is affected more by

changes in migration trends.

2004 2014 2024 2034

% of pop aged 0-15 21% 19% 19% 18%

% of pop aged 16-64 62% 62% 59% 56%

% of pop aged 65+ 17% 18% 22% 26%

Median Age 39.2 41.8 42.5 44.2

Dependency ratio (per 1,000 working age pop) 670 648 644 742

In 2014, there were 17,100 over 65s, 3,500 (26%) higher than 20 years ago. The increase is projected to continue at a faster rate - average of 400 per annum, reaching 25,000 by 2034 (increase of 47%/8,000). The growth is expected due to comparatively large cohorts ageing and moving into this age group, as well as increases in life expectancy.

The number of 16-64 year olds is assumed to have peaked in mid-2011, the numbers have fallen since (by 800) and are estimated at 57,800. The decline is projected to continue by an average of 200 per annum to be 53,900 in 2034 (loss of 7%/3,900 compared with 2014). The decrease is due to large cohorts ageing and moving up out of this age group. This age group is expected to grow over the next 20 years in all regions apart from the North East and North West.

0-15 year olds continue to make up just under 1 in 5 of the population. In 2014, there were 17,600 0-15s, which is 2,900 (14%) lower than 20 years ago. A 2% (300) increase is projected by 2021 [mainly due to the higher number of births in the mid 2000s/early 2010s]. The numbers are then expected to decreasing gradually each year.

The number of dependents (children & those over retirement age) per 1,000 working age is similar in 2024 as in 2014 due to the changes to State Pensionable Age. There is a dramatic increase between 2024 and 2034 due to the growing older population and as of yet no announcements of changes to the State Pensionable Age after 2026.

Median age is getting older.

By 2034, 1 in 4 of the population is projected to be aged 65+.

7D) DETAILED AGE STRUCTURE

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7E) CHANGES IN SIZE OF AGE GROUPS

– CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE

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A major factor in the changing size of age groups is the original cohort size at birth; this can be seen on the population pyramid by the still large cohorts from the post-war baby boom.

Projections for births are low compared with the peak seen in the mid to late 2000s, and are expected to reduce in number over time. The small decrease in births and consistent migration flows mean the number of 0-4s is projected to decrease slightly over time.

Secondary school aged - projected to increase to a peak in 2024 but not reach the same highs as in the 1990s and 2000s.

17-18 year olds - projected to decrease to a low in 2020, then increase, but not to the highs seen in the 2000s.

Primary school aged - projected to increase to a peak in 2017 but not to the highs seen in the 1990s to mid 2000s.

19-21 year olds - projected to decrease to a low in 2023, then increase, but not to the highs seen in the last 10 years.

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7F) CHANGES IN SIZE OF AGE GROUPS

– 22-64 YEAR OLDS

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30-44 year olds – the numbers in this age group has been on the decline for the last 10 years, and is projected to reach low of 16,100 in 2016. The numbers post 2017 are projected to rise, reaching 17,800 in 2026), before falling but not to the current low.

45-64 year olds – the numbers in this age group has increased in the last 10 years and is expected to peak in 2016 at 25,400. The numbers post 2019 are projected to gradually decline as the large cohorts following baby booms in the late 60s and 70s move into the older age group.

22-29 year olds – after a projected peak in 2016 of 9,600, this age group are projected to gradually decline over the following 10 years (reaching low of 8,000), as the current small cohorts of secondary school age move into this age group. The number is then projected to increase slightly.

Over the next 20 years, the 22-64 age group is projected to fall by 3,200 (-6%), with the sharpest drops predicted to take place between 2024 and 2030. However, mainly due to the changes in State Pension age, the number of working age in 2034 (56,300) is similar to the number in 2014 (56,200).

Jumps are when there are changes in SPA

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7G) CHANGES IN SIZE OF AGE GROUPS

– 65 AND OVER

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Migration is projected to have a minimal impact on the numbers of over 65s. The increase is mainly due to the larger cohorts from baby boomers moving into this age group and improvements in life expectancy.

75-84 year olds – due to mainly improvements in life expectancy this age group has been increasing in number. The increase is projected to continue at a slightly faster pace, an average of 2.3% (150) per annum, after relatively consistent numbers over the next 6 years.

65-74 year olds – this age group have been increasing in number since mid 2010, the increase is projected to continue by average of 150 (1.5%) per annum over the next 20 years.

Aged 85 and over – due to improvements in life expectancy this age group has been increasing dramatically in number. This age group is projected to grow annually by a slightly greater number than over the last 10 years (average increase of 100 per annum). There are expected to be more than double the number of over 85s in 2034 than 2014.

Over the next 20 years, the over 65 age group is projected to increase dramatically by 8,000 (47%), with the sharpest increases predicted to take place between 2026 and 2028. This age group would then represent 26% of the population in 2034, rather than 18% in 2014.

The increases in State Pension Age (SPA) [women’s to same as men in 2018, 66 in 2020, and 67 in 2026] is projected to have the impact of creating 3,200 more people of working age in 2024, and 4,200 more in 2034 than if 2014 SPA were retained.

Old age support ratio 2004 2014 2024 2034

Hartlepool 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.5

Tees Valley 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.6

England 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.0

The changes to SPA prevent the number of working age people for every person above retirement age from decreasing by a large amount. In 2034 the support ratio is projected to be lower than 2014, and lower than the ratio nationally.

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The differences between the mid-year population estimates (MYEs) and the 2014-based and 2012-based population projections for mid 2015 are used as an indicator of accuracy of the projections.

8) ASSESSMENT OF THE PROJECTIONS IN THE FIRST YEAR

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As would be expected, the 2014-SNPP for mid-2015 were closer than the previous set for all these areas above.

The 2014-based projections for Hartlepool performed well in the first year, with just a slight over-projection of 200. Hartlepool’s population decreased slightly between mid-2014 and 2015 when it was projected to increase.

MYEs for

2015

2014-

error

2012-

error

2014 –

% error

2012 –

% error

Darlington 105,400 0 -200 0.00% -0.19%

Hartlepool 92,500 -200 -400 -0.22% -0.43%

Middlesbrough 139,500 -300 -400 -0.22% -0.29%

R&C 135,300 400 600 0.30% 0.44%

S-on-T 194,800 -200 -900 -0.10% -0.46%

Tees Valley 667,500 -300 -1,200 -0.04% -0.18%

North of England 15,189,000 12,200 16,100 0.08% 0.11%

England 54,786,300 6,400 172,900 0.01% 0.32%

The components of change (births, deaths and migration) from 2014-SNPP have been compared with those from 2015 MYEs. The errors associated with births and deaths are comparatively low when compared to the size of some of the errors for internal and international migration. The migration assumptions for the SNPPs are generally more volatile than births and deaths. Although in Tees Valley and Hartlepool deaths were underprojected by the 2014-based SNPP. In the year to mid-2015 there were a higher number of deaths compared with previous years, partially due to an increase seen of deaths of under 65s. Births in Hartlepool were overprojected, partially due to a decrease in births of mothers aged 20-34.

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9) COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS

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2012-Based Projections vs 2014-Based Projections for Hartlepool

2012-Based 2014-Based Difference

Mid 2014 Population 92,600 92,600 0

2014-2034

Births 22,000 20,400 -1,600

Deaths 19,100 19,400 300

Net UK Migrants 1,100 1,100 0

Net International Migrants 500 1,300 800

Net Population Change 4,500 3,300 -1,200

Mid 2034 Population 97,100 96,000 -1,100

Totals don't sum due to rounding

The latest population projection for 2034 is much lower than that from the previous sets of projections.

The lower projections than 2012-SNPP appear to be mainly due to the reduction in the number of projected births and a slight increase in the number of deaths.

The projections would have been lower still had the national assumption for international migration inflows not been increased by 20,000 per annum.

10) ONS’S VARIANT PROJECTIONS

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The prisoners variant shows what the projections would look like if prisoners were treated as a “special population”, that is, assumed to have a static size and age-sex distribution. This change in methodology has no impact on the projections for Hartlepool.

The projected population would be 1,500 (1.5%) higher in 2034 if the higher rates of fertility were realised.

The projected population would be 2,200 (-2.3%) lower in 2034 if net migration each year was zero, rather than seeing a net flow inwards.

ONS produced 3 variant subnational population projections, these are ‘proof of concept’ and are not fully developed statistics. The variants, are not necessarily the most useful, but they illustrate what types of variants could potentially be produced in the future by ONS to help show the uncertainty and sensitivity of the projections.

TVCA can also produce variant projections by request, using POPGROUP software.

For more information about this report or further data, please contact:

Sarah Cattermole

Demography and Modelling Officer

Economic Strategy and Intelligence Team

Tel: 01642 524413

Sarah.Cattermole@teesvalley-ca.gov.uk Back to contents 24

11) Links to the sources and contact details for more information ONS’s statistical bulletins are available via these links - all the data can be viewed and downloaded [ also links to the quality and methodology papers]:

• Subnational Population Projections, 2014-based

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulle

tins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2014basedprojections

[http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/qmis/subnationalpopul

ationprojectionsqmi ]

• National Population Projections, 2014-based

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulle

tins/nationalpopulationprojections/2015-10-29

[http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/qmis/nationalpopulatio

nprojectionsqmi ]

• Mid Year Population Estimates, 2015

http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulleti

ns/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2015

[ http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/population-and-migration/pop-ests/population-estimates-

for-las/index.html ]

Link to other TVCA demography reports:

https://teesvalley-ca.gov.uk/partners-portal/population/