oferta y demanda de gas lp en el mundo y el entorno de américa … · 2019-03-21 · >...
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Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Oferta y demanda de Gas LP en el
mundo y el entorno de América Latina21 de marzo del 2019
Lima, Perú
Adrian Calcaneo
Director & líder para América Latina
Midstream y Líquidos
@EAdrianCalcaneo
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Agenda
• Metodología IHS Markit
• Panorama Global
• Panorama Regional
• Conclusiones
• Retos y oportunidades
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Metodología IHS Markit
Cobertura América Latina
• 29 países en el corto plazo.
> Serie mensual (2015-2020)
> Análisis de la oferta, demanda, e infraestructura.
> Comercio Internacional
> Pronostico de precio (molécula, flete, terminal)
• 43 países en el largo plazo
> Serie anual (2000-2050)
> Análisis de la oferta, demanda, e infraestructura.
> Comercio Internacional
> Pronostico de precio (molécula, flete, terminal)
• Conferencias, consultoría, y visitas con clientes.
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Los Líquidos del Gas Natural (LGM) se ven afectados por
varios mercados.
Gas NaturalLGN
PetroquimicaRefinación
Etano
Propano
Butano Normal
Gasolina Natural
Isobutano Petroleo
Crudo
Residencial/Comercial
Propano
Butano
Nafta
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Reporte Anual Servicio de Líquidos de Gas Natural
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Oferta, Demanda, y Precios
Pronósticos
Largo Plazo
Corto Plazo
País
País
País
Visión del Mercado Global
Oferta, Demanda, y Precios
163 Países 60+ Países
• Análisis independiente del propano y butano.
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Panorama GlobalGas LP
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Producción de Gas LP en el mundo.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mill
ion
s
Europe Latin America Africa CIS Oceania Asia North America
7
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Demanda de Gas LP en el mundo
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mill
ion
s
Europa America Latina Africa CEI (Rusia) Oceania Asia EUA & Canada
8
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mill
ion
s
Manufactured Gas MTBE
Engine Fuel Industrial
Other Demand Price-Sensitive Demand
Refinery Other Chemical
Residential and Commercial Exports
9
Demanda de Gas LP Estados Unidos Demanda de Gas LP Canada
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mill
ion
s
Manufactured Gas Price-Sensitive Demand
MTBE Engine Fuel
Other Demand Residential and Commercial
Other Chemical Industrial
Refinery Exports
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Exportaciones de Gas LP de los Estados Unidos por destino
10
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Mill
ion
s
Latin America Europe Africa North America Oceania Other Asia
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Un mundo cambiante: El flujo del comercio de Gas LP global.
Source: IHS Energy – Waterborne LPG
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América LatinaPanorama de Gas LP
12
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El Mercado de Gas LP en América Latina a grandes rasgos:
• Un mercado en transición.
> Creciente influencia del precio de referencia Mont Belvieu.
– Lo que ocurre fuera de la región cada vez tiene mas importancia en el precio que paga el consumidor
final
> Incertidumbre debido a las transiciones políticas:
• Chile
• Colombia
• Brasil
• México
• Ecuador
– Inestabilidad política y económica
• Argentina
• Venezuela
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Producción de Gas LP en América Latina
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mill
ion
s
Brazil Mexico Venezuela Argentina Peru Other
14
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Demanda de Gas LP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mill
ion
s
Mexico Brazil Venezuela Chile Argentina Peru Ecuador Dominican Republic Colombia Otros
15
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Balance de Gas LP regional
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mill
ion
s
Importaciones Netas Demanda Produccion
16
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Balance regional: Importaciones vs exportaciones
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mill
ion
s
Exports Imports
17
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America Latina: Importaciones vs Exportaciones
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Mexico Brazil Venezuela Argentina Peru Other
Latin America LPG imports by country
Source: IHS Energy © 2018 IHS Markit
Th
ou
sa
nd
Me
tric
To
nn
es
0
100
200
300
Argentina Mexico Trinidad Venezuela Peru Other
Latin America LPG exports by country
Source: IHS Energy © 2018 IHS MarkitT
ho
us
an
dM
etr
ic T
on
ne
s
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Importaciones de propano en América Latina (2018)
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Importaciones de butano en América Latina (2018)
20
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Importaciones de Gas LP mezclado en América Latina (2018)
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Proporción de Gas LP importado proveniente de los Estados Unidos
Country 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Argentina 0% 9% 1% 13% 3%
Bolivia 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brazil 53% 71% 64% 62% 67%
Chile 68% 68% 62% 76% 76%
Colombia 11% 10% 24% 27% 28%
Mexico 98% 98% 99% 93% 88%
Peru 0% 8% 34% 21% 50%
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Demanda de Gas LP en America Latina
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Demanda de Gas LP en America Latina
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Consumo residencial y comercial de Gas LP per cápita
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Demanda Residencial y Comercial per capita en America Latina
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Dem
an
da R
es/C
om
per
Cap
ita (kg
)
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La mayoría de los países tiene un déficit en su relación oferta demanda.
-600
-200
200
Chart Title
Mexico Brazil Venezuela Argentina Peru Other
Latin America LPG surplus/deficit by country
Source: IHS Energy © 2018 IHS Markit
Th
ou
san
dM
etr
ic T
on
nes
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Retos y oportunidades.
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Conclusiones
• La producción que no se ajusta a la creciente demanda da como resultado una
mayor dependencia de las importaciones.
• América Latina ahora participa en un mercado mundial. La comprensión local de
los impulsores de precios globales es una necesidad.
• A pesar de sus similitudes, no todos los países en la región están en la misma
situación.. Existen varias oportunidades en América Latina y hay espacio para el
crecimiento comercial residencial en el uso del Gas LP.
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Seminario de Gas LP en
America Latina 2019
12 al 14 de noviembre del 2019
Quito, Ecuador
¡Aparten la fecha!
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