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BR S T BR S T BR S T BR S T BR S T BR S T BR S T Your key to India’s Next Trillion Dollar of GDP Growth N XT E Opportunity Strategy Trillion Dollar r a b t e i l n e g C Years August 2020

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Page 1: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

BRSTBRSTBRST

BRSTBRST

BRSTBRST

Your key toIndia’s Next Trillion Dollar

of GDP Growth

N XTEOpportunity Strategy

Trillion Dollar

rab te il ne g

C

Years11

August 2020

Page 2: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

About the Strategy

1

NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization

Investing in businesses that benefit from the Next Trillion Dollar GDP growth of India

12+ years track record with consistent outperformance vis-à-vis benchmark across market cycles (10 out 12 calendar years)

Concentrated portfolio of 25 stocks with 14 companies held for over 5 years: a truly ‘Buy and Hold’ strategy

Investment Manager

Motilal Oswal AMC is the pioneer of PMS business in India with over 16 years of track record

One of the co-founders, Mr. Raamdeo Agrawal is one of the most honored and trusted names in the investing world

It has a unique positioning of being “Equity only AMC” with defined “Investment Philosophy”

Trusted by over 42,000 HNI investors and with around Rs. 12,000 Crs of assets as on 31st July 2020

Index agnostic: ~83% away from benchmark Nifty 500

Page 3: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

2

186

193

201

218

212

233

249

279

297

296

321

270

288

279 327

360

393

416

421 459

468

485

515 60

8 709 82

0 940

1217

1199 13

42

1676 18

23

1828

1857 20

39 2104 22

90

2653 27

26

2972

3258

3577

3924

4306

4729

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Ind

ia G

DP

(cu

rre

nt

$ b

n)

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

FY 1

980

FY 1

981

FY 1

982

FY 1

983

FY 1

984

FY 1

985

FY 1

986

FY 1

987

FY 1

988

FY 1

989

FY 1

990

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FY 1

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FY 1

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FY 1

994

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FY 1

999

FY 2

000

FY 2

001

FY 2

002

FY 2

003

FY 2

004

FY 2

005

FY 2

006

FY 2

007

FY 2

008

FY 20

09

FY 2

010

FY 2

011

FY 2

012

FY 2

013

FY 2

014

FY 2

015

FY 2

016

FY 2

017

FY 2

018

FY 2

019

FY 2

020E

FY 2

021E

FY 2

022E

FY 2

023E

FY 2

024E

1st US$ tn

2nd US$ tn

3rd US$ tn

4th US$ tn

Nearing 5th US$ tn

According to World Bank data, India has now become the world’s sixth-largest economy

India is one of the fastest growing among major economies

Source: statisticstimes.comPast performance may or may not sustain and does not guarantee future performanceNote - Above forward looking statements are based on external current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could affect actual results.Investments are subject to market risk. The above graph is used for illustration purpose only and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy.

India’s GDP Growth Opportunity

Page 4: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

Rising Discretionary Spending

Discretionary spending is expected to increasedisproportionately going forward

Discretionary spending will rise from 52%in 2005 to 70% in 2025

56

4234

25

5

6

5

5

14

12

12

10

2

3

3

3

4

8

9

11

11

17

19

20

12

3

6

35

69

4 7 9 13

1995 2005 2015 2025 E

Food, beverages &Tobacco

Housing & Utilities

Personal Products &Services

Transportation

Communication

Education & Recreation

Health Care

DISCRETIONARY ITEMSShare of Avg. Household consumption% thousand, INR

Necessities

Discretionary Items

Source: data.gov.in & Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Pe

r C

apit

a In

com

e(I

n R

s. T

ho

usa

nd

)

10,000

30,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

CAGR of 11.6%

CAGR of 9.5%

CAGR of 10.5%

110,000

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

3

Above forward-looking graphs/statements are based on external current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results.

Page 5: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

Consumption

• Banks

• Capital Markets

• Insurance

• NBFCs

Banking andFinancial Services

Government Spending

• Power

• Cement

• Capital Goods

• Construction

• Engineering

Some Themes that Benefit from GDP Growth

These are illustrative in nature and can change from time to time based on the outlook of the portfolio manager.

• Consumer Discretionary

• Retailing

• Consumer Durables

• Passenger Vehicles

• Utility Services

4

Page 6: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

Benefits of Multicap

Large Cap

Leaders in respective sectors

Stability and less volatile

Mid Cap

High growth

Potential of tomorrow’s large caps

Small Cap

Emerging businesses

Offer potential to scale

5

Page 7: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

Investing in Multicaps Reduces Extremes

Large Cap [8.1%]

CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 CY2017 CY2018CY2013

Multicap[6.1%]

Mid Cap [-4.0%]

Small Cap [-9.7%]

Small Cap [71.1%]

Mid Cap [56.9%]

Multicap[37.4%]

Large Cap [33.3%]

Mid Cap [8.7%]

Small Cap [7.7%]

Multicap[-0.2%]

Large Cap [-2.7%]

Mid Cap [9.3%]

Multicap[5.4%]

Large Cap [4.7%]

Small Cap [2.7%]

Small Cap [60.8%]

Mid Cap [49.9%]

Multicap[35.0%]

Large Cap [31.6%]

Large Cap [3.7%]

Multicap[0.8%]

Mid Cap [-12.5%]

Small Cap [-22.8%]

Large Cap [12.2%]

Multicap[10.4%]

Mid Cap [-2.1%]

Small Cap [-5.9%]

Pe

rfo

rman

ce

Top

Bottom

Diversification offers flexibility to invest across sectors/ themes and may perform well in different market conditions with relatively low risk

Multicap Index – S&P BSE 200 TRI ; Large Cap – S&P BSE Large Cap TRI; Mid Cap - S&P BSE Mid Cap TRI; Small Cap - S&P BSE Small Cap TRI.Source: ICRA MFI Explorer. Performance shown above is CAGR (%) and is for the Calendar Year. The above graph is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

6

CY 2019

Page 8: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

Our Investment Philosophy

At Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company (MOAMC), our investment philosophy is centered on 'Buy Right: Sit Tight‘ principle.

Buy Right

‘Q’uality denotes quality of the business and management

‘G’rowth denotes growth in earnings and sustained RoE

‘L’ongevity denotes longevity of the competitive advantage or economic moat of the business

‘P’rice denotes our approach of buying a good business for a fair price rather than buying a fair business for a good price

QGLP

Sit Tight

Buy and Hold: We are strictly buy and hold investors and believe that picking the right business needs skill and holding onto these businesses to enable our investors to benefit from the entire growth cycle needs even more skill.

Focus: Our portfolios are high conviction portfolios with 25 to 30 stocks being our ideal n u m b e r. We b e l i e v e i n a d e q u a t e diversification but over-diversification results in diluting returns for our investors and adding market risk

7

Page 9: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

Please Note: The given stocks are part of portfolio of a model client of NTDOP Strategy as on 31st July 2020. The stocks forming part of the existing portfolio under NTDOP Strategy may or may not be bought for new client. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments. The Company mentioned above is only for the purpose of explaining the concept and should not be construed as recommendations from MOAMC.

Wealth Creators - Buy and Hold Strategy

Sep-10

Nov-12

Aug-14

Mar-13

30,324

5,907

2,607

13,633

Market Cap Rs. Crores

31-July-20 Stock

Initial Purchase

Date

Market Cap Rs. Crores(Purchase

Date)

CAGR (%)

Source: MOAMC Internal Analysis

Kotak Mahindra Bank

Ipca Laboratories

City Union Bank

HPCL

2,70,601

23,798

8,940

32,762

25%

20%

18%

16%

8

Absolute Growth

8.9X

4.0X

3.4X

2.4X

The average holding period for stocks held under NTDOP Strategy is over 6 years 6 months

Holding Period

Since Inception (10+ Years)

>5 Years

> 2 Years but <5 Years

<2 Years

No. of Scrips

2

12

7

4

Buy and Hold strategy with > 60% stocks held for more than 5 years (Page Industries held since inception) and 10% of stocks held for 10+ years resulting in wealth creation for investors

Page 10: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

Portfolio Allocation

Scrip Name % Holding

11.4

10.5

6.9

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.1

4.7

4.3

4.3

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.

Voltas Ltd.

Ipca Laboratories Ltd.

Max Financial Services Ltd.

ICICI Bank Ltd.

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

Eicher Motors Ltd.

L&T Technology Services Ltd.

Page Industries Ltd.

Reliance Industries Ltd.

Sectoral Allocation Top 10 Holdings

Market Capitalization

Please Note: Data as on 31st July 2020. The stocks mentioned are a part of existing NTDOP Strategy clients and may or may not be bought for new clients. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments. The strategy may or may not have any future holdings in these stocks and should not be construed as recommendations from MOAMC.

9

Large Cap

Mid Cap

Small Cap

50%

47%

3%

Weighted Average Market Cap Rs. 1,44,704 Crs

-0.2

2.4

2.7

3.2

4.1

4.3

5.1

5.4

8.4

9.0

10.4

11.1

12.6

21.2

Cash

Chemicals

Transporta�on

Auto Ancillaries

Industrial Products

Tex�le Products

Auto

Non-Lending Financials

So�ware

Oil & Gas

Pharmaceu�cals

Construc�on Project

Consumer Non Durables

Banking

Page 11: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

Performance Snapshot

*Strategy Inception Date: 11th December 2007.Please Note: The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client as on 31st July 2020. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments. Returns below 1 year are absolute and above 1 year are annualized. Strategy returns shown above are post fees & expenses.

10

NTDOP Strategy has delivered a CAGR of 13.9% vs. Ni�y 500 TRI

returns of 5.9%, an outperformance of 8% (CAGR) since incep�on (5th December

2007)

NTDOP Strategy Nifty 500 TRI

Rs. 1 crore invested in NTDOP Strategy at inception is worth Rs.

5.2 cr as on 31st July 2020. For the same period Rs. 1 cr invested

in Nifty 500 TRI Index is now worth Rs. 2.1 cr.

NTDOP Strategy Ni�y 500 TRI

0

20

40

60

De

c-0

7

Jul-

08

Feb

-09

Sep

-09

Ap

r-1

0

No

v-1

0

Jun

-11

Jan

-12

Au

g-1

2

Mar

-13

Oct

-13

May

-14

De

c-1

4

Jul-

15

Feb

-16

Sep

-16

Ap

r-1

7

No

v-1

7

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

9

Jan

-20

Jun

-20

5.2X

2.1X

-1.9

-7.4

-2.0

3.25.1

18.916.7

13.9

1.0

-2.1

2.1

6.6 6.2

12.2

8.5

5.9

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years Since Incep�on

Page 12: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

Performance - Rolling Returns

Please Note: The Above strategy returns are of a Model Client as on 31st July 2020. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments. Strategy returns shown above are post fees & expenses. Returns above 1 year are annualized.

The data shows rolling returns of the NTDOP Strategy over various time frames.

It is worth noting that on 1 year rolling basis, the returns are in a very wide range. The best return made by the Strategy is 141% and the worst return is -56%.

As we increase the time horizon, the outcomes narrow significantly from the average.

For instance, if we consider the 5 year time frame, historically the best return (CAGR) is 36%, least return is 2% and average return is 25%.

It may also be noteworthy that the negative returns above 4 years rolling periods are zero.

12

Total number of time periods: 1year: 4,257; 2years: 3,892 ; 3years: 3,527 ; 4years: 3,162 ; 5years: 2,796 ;6years: 2,431 ; 7years: 2,066 ; 8years: 1,701 ; 9years: 1,335 ; 10years: 970 ;

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Investment tenor (in years)

10

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

-100%

% of times returns were negative

Average returnsNTDOP Strategy

142%

73%

50%41% 36%

43% 37% 35% 34% 30%

-56%

-16%-7% -1% 2% 10% 14% 15% 15% 14%

Page 13: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

Fund Manager

Manish has been managing the Strategy since inception and also serves as the Director of the Motilal Oswal India Fund, Mauritius.

He has over 25 years of experience in equity research and fund management, with over 14 years with Motilal Oswal PMS.

He has been the guiding pillar in the PMS investment process and has been managing various PMS strategies and AIFs at MOAMC.

Manish holds various post graduate degrees including an MBA in Finance, FCA, Company Secretaryship (CS) and Cost & Works Accountancy (CWA).

Manish Sonthalia

13

Page 14: of GDP Growth BRSTBRST · 2020. 8. 14. · About the Strategy 1 NTDOP is a multi-cap strategy investing across market capitalization Investing in businesses that benefit from the

Disclaimer: This presentation has been prepared and issued on the basis of internal data, publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this document is for general purposes only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact and terms and conditions. The information / data herein alone is not sufficient and shouldn’t be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. All opinions, figures, charts/graphs, estimates and data included in this presentation are as on date and are subject to change without notice. While utmost care has been exercised while preparing this document, Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Limited does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Readers shall be fully responsible /liable for any decision taken on the basis of this presentation. No part of this document may be duplicated in whole or in part in any form and/or redistributed without prior written consent of the Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Limited. Readers should before investing in the Strategy make their own investigation and seek appropriate professional advice. • Investments in Securities are subject to market and other risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of any of the strategies of the Portfolio Management Services will be achieved. • Clients under Portfolio Management Services are not being offered any guaranteed/assured returns. • Past performance of the Portfolio Manager does not indicate the future performance of any of the strategies. • The name of the Strategies do not in any manner indicate their prospects or return. • The strategy may not be suited to all categories of investors. • The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. • Neither Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC), nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this material. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice. • Opinions, if any, expressed are our opinions as of the date of appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. • The Portfolio Manager is not responsible for any loss or shortfall resulting from the operation of the strategy. • Recipient shall understand that the aforementioned statements cannot disclose all the risks and characteristics. The recipient is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return, etc. and take professional advice before investing. As with any investment in securities, the Value of the portfolio under management may go up or down depending on the various factors and forces affecting the capital market. Disclosure Document shall be obtained and read carefully before executing the PMS agreement. • Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward - looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. • For tax consequences, each investor is advised to consult his / her own professional tax advisor. • This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished solely for information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without ’MOAMCs prior written consent. • Distribution Restrictions – This material should not be circulated in countries where restrictions exist on soliciting business from potential clients residing in such countries. Recipients of this material should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Recipients shall be solely liable for any liability incurred by them in this regard and will indemnify MOAMC for any liability it may incur in this respect.

Disclaimer

Custodian: Deutsche Bank A.G. | Auditor: Aneel Lasod & Associates | Depository: Central Depositary Services Ltd

Portfolio Manager: Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC) | SEBI Registration No. : INP 000000670

THINK EQUITYTHINK MOTILAL OSWAL

For any PMS queries please call us on +91 81086 22222 / 022-4054 8002 (press 2 for PMS) or write to [email protected] or visit www.motilaloswalmf.com