C M Y K Nxxx,2020-04-19,A,001,Bs-4C,E2

The coronavirus is spreading fromAmerica’s biggest cities to its suburbs,and has begun encroaching on the na-tion’s rural regions. The virus is be-lieved to have infected millions of citi-zens and has killed more than 34,000.

Yet President Trump last week pro-posed guidelines for reopening theeconomy and suggested that a swath ofthe United States would soon resumesomething resembling normalcy. Forweeks now, the administration’s view ofthe crisis and our future has been rosierthan that of its own medical advisers,and of scientists generally.

In truth, it is not clear to anyonewhere this crisis is leading us. Morethan 20 experts in public health, medi-cine, epidemiology and history sharedtheir thoughts on the future during in-depth interviews. When can we emergefrom our homes? How long, realisti-cally, before we have a treatment or vac-cine? How will we keep the virus atbay?

Some felt that American ingenuity,once fully engaged, might well produceadvances to ease the burdens. The pathforward depends on factors that are cer-tainly difficult but doable, they said: acarefully staggered approach to reopen-ing, widespread testing and surveil-lance, a treatment that works, adequateresources for health care providers —and eventually an effective vaccine.

Still, it was impossible to avoidgloomy forecasts for the next year. Thescenario that Mr. Trump has been un-rolling at his daily press briefings —that the lockdowns will end soon, that aprotective pill is almost at hand, thatstadiums and restaurants will soon befull — is a fantasy, most experts said.

“We face a doleful future,” said Dr.Harvey V. Fineberg, a former presidentof the National Academy of Medicine.

He and others foresaw an unhappypopulation trapped indoors for months,with the most vulnerable possibly quar-antined for far longer. They worried thata vaccine would initially elude scien-tists, that weary citizens would aban-don restrictions despite the risks, thatthe virus would be with us from now on.

“My optimistic side says the viruswill ease off in the summer and a vac-cine will arrive like the cavalry,” said Dr.William Schaffner, a preventive medi-cine specialist at Vanderbilt Universitymedical school. “But I’m learning toguard against my essentially optimisticnature.”

Most experts believed that once thecrisis was over, the nation and its econ-omy would revive quickly. But therewould be no escaping a period of intensepain.

What the Next Year (or Two) May Look LikeScientists Foresee Long Road in U.S.

Continued on Page 14

PHOTOGRAPHS BY MISHA FRIEDMAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

From top: Picking up food at a nonprofit in Manhattan’s Washington Heightsneighborhood; testing samples in Brooklyn; few commuters on the Staten IslandFerry. President Trump’s rosy outlook for reopening is not shared by experts.

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

WASHINGTON — The strat-egy could not be clearer: From theRepublican lawmakers blanket-ing Fox News to new ads fromPresident Trump’s super PAC tothe biting criticism on DonaldTrump Jr.’s Twitter feed, the G.O.P.is attempting to divert attentionfrom the administration’s heavilycriticized response to the coro-navirus by pinning the blame onChina.

With the death toll from the pan-demic already surpassing 34,000Americans and unemploymentsoaring to levels not seen sincethe Great Depression, Republi-cans increasingly believe that ele-vating China as an archenemyculpable for the spread of the vi-rus, and harnessing America’sgrowing animosity toward Bei-jing, may be the best way to sal-vage a difficult election.

Republican senators locked indifficult races are preparing com-mercials condemning China. Con-servatives with future presiden-tial ambitions of their own, likeSenators Tom Cotton and JoshHawley, are competing to see whocan talk tougher toward the coun-try where the virus first emerged.Party officials are publicly andprivately brandishing polling datain hopes Mr. Trump will confrontBeijing.

Mr. Trump’s own campaignaides have endorsed the strategy,releasing an attack ad last weekdepicting Joseph R. Biden Jr., thepresumptive Democratic nomi-nee, as soft on China. The ad reliedheavily on images of people ofAsian descent, including formerGov. Gary Locke of Washington,who is Chinese-American, and itwas widely viewed as fanning theflames of xenophobia.

“Trump has always been suc-cessful when he’s had a bogeymanand China is the perfect bogey-man,” said Chris LaCivita, a long-time Republican strategist.

But there is a potential impedi-ment to the G.O.P. plan — theleader of the party himself.

Eager to continue trade talks,uneasy about further rattling themarkets and hungry to protect hisrelationship with President Xi Jin-ping at a moment when the UnitedStates is relying on China’s manu-facturers for lifesaving medicalsupplies, Mr. Trump has repeat-

G.O.P. AimingTo Make ChinaThe Scapegoat

Bid to Shift Blame Off Trump for Response

By JONATHAN MARTINand MAGGIE HABERMAN

Continued on Page 6

For weeks, U.S. government of-ficials and hospital executiveshave warned of a looming short-age of ventilators as the coro-navirus pandemic descended.

But now, doctors are soundingan alarm about an unexpectedand perhaps overlooked crisis: asurge in Covid-19 patients withkidney failure that is leading toshortages of machines, suppliesand staff required for emergencydialysis.

In recent weeks, doctors on thefront lines in intensive care unitsin New York and other hard-hitcities have learned that the coro-navirus isn’t only a respiratorydisease that has led to a crushingdemand for ventilators.

The disease is also shuttingdown some patients’ kidneys, pos-ing yet another series of life-or-death calculations for doctors whomust ferry a limited supply of spe-cialized dialysis machines fromone patient in kidney failure to thenext. All the while fearing theymay not be able to hook up every-one in time to save them.

It is not yet known whether thekidneys are a major target of thevirus, or whether they’re just onemore organ falling victim as a pa-tient’s ravaged body surrenders.Dialysis fills the vital roles the kid-neys play, cleaning the blood oftoxins, balancing essential com-ponents including electrolytes,keeping blood pressure in checkand removing excess fluids. It canbe a temporary measure while thekidneys recover, or it can be usedlong-term if they do not. Anotherunknown is whether the kidneydamage caused by the virus ispermanent.

“The nephrologists in New YorkCity are going slightly crazy mak-ing sure that everyone with kid-ney failure gets treatment,” saidDr. David S. Goldfarb, chief ofnephrology at the New York cam-pus of the New York Harbor VAHealth Care System. “We don’twant people to die of inadequate

RISING SHORTAGEOF DIALYSIS UNITSALARMS DOCTORS

AN OVERLOOKED THREAT

Kidneys Failing in LargePercentage of Patients

Sickest With Virus

This article is by Reed Abelson,Sheri Fink, Nicholas Kulish andKatie Thomas.

Continued on Page 13

The modern American slaugh-terhouse is a very different placefrom the one that Upton Sinclairdepicted in his early-20th-centurynovel, “The Jungle.”

Many are giant, sleek refriger-ated assembly lines, staffedmostly by unionized workers whoslice, debone and “gut snatch” hogand beef carcasses, under con-stant oversight of government in-spectors. The jobs are often gru-eling and sometimes dangerous,but pork and beef producers boastabout having some of the mostheavily sanitized work spaces ofany industry.

Yet meat plants, honed overdecades for maximum efficiencyand profit, have become major“hot spots” for the coronaviruspandemic, with some reportingwidespread illnesses among theirworkers. The health crisis has re-vealed how these plants are be-coming the weakest link in the na-

Meat ProducersAre Weak LinkIn Food Supply

By MICHAEL CORKERYand DAVID YAFFE-BELLANY

Continued on Page 18

BERLIN — Felix Germann wasnot expecting anyone when hisdoorbell rang. Outside was a doc-tor who looked like she had juststepped out of an operating the-ater, green scrubs, face mask andall — and a policeman.

“I didn’t do it!” Mr. Germannsaid, throwing up his hands, andeverybody laughed.

The unusual visitors had comewith an unusual proposal: Wouldhe allow them to test his blood forCovid-19 antibodies? Everymonth? For a year? Starting nextweek?

He would be helping to furtherthe science that would ultimatelyallow for a controlled lifting of so-cial and economic restrictions andsave lives.

“Of course I said yes,” said Mr.Germann, a 41-year-old projectmanager at a media company. “Iwant to help. This is a collectivecrisis. The government is doingwhat it can. Everyone needs to do

Germany Tries Antibody Tests As a Way Back

By KATRIN BENNHOLD

Continued on Page 5

Every day, Constance Warrenstands behind the cold cutscounter at a grocery store in NewOrleans, watching the regularcustomers come and go.

They thank Ms. Warren and tellher they do not like being stuck in-doors, waiting out the epidemic.She wraps their honey-smokedturkey and smiles.

It is good to have a job rightnow, the mixed fortune of beingdeemed an essential worker. Butshe wonders whether, once every-day life is safe again, people willremember the role she playedwhen it was not.

“Don’t forget that we were opento serve you in your time of need,”she said on a break one recent af-ternoon. “You never know whenyou might need us again.”

From the cashier to the emer-gency room nurse to the drug-store pharmacist to the homehealth aide taking the bus to checkon her older client, the soldier onthe front lines of the current na-

tional emergency is most likely awoman.

One in three jobs held by wom-en has been designated as essen-tial, according to a New YorkTimes analysis of census datacrossed with the federal govern-ment’s essential worker guide-lines. Nonwhite women are morelikely to be doing essential jobsthan anyone else.

The work they do has oftenbeen underpaid and undervalued

When It Comes to ‘Essential,’It’s a Woman’s World Today

By CAMPBELL ROBERTSONand ROBERT GEBELOFF

Andrea Lindley, 34, is anI.C.U. nurse in Philadelphia.

HANNAH YOON FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Continued on Page 17THE NEW YORK TIMES

6 feet

3 feet

A cough produces respiratory droplets of varying sizes. Inside a room, small droplets known as aerosols can remain suspended or travel through the air before they eventually settle on surfaces.

Read more on Page 10.

Is Six Feet Enough?

President Jair Bolsonaro is movingaggressively to open up the Amazon todevelopment. Promises Made. PAGE 20

INTERNATIONAL 19-22

Brazil Tribes Fear ‘Ethnocide’We photographed 10 students from theOmaha area who had been lookingforward to their last dance. PAGE 1

SUNDAYSTYLES

When Prom Is Canceled

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has her handsfull these days, between the outbreak,gun-toting protesters and all the presi-dent’s tweets. Not to mention the vicepresident talk. PAGE 23

NATIONAL 23-27

‘The Woman in Michigan’A monopoly critic knew she was fight-ing an uphill battle. But as the pan-demic has made Amazon more essen-tial, it has made it vulnerable. PAGE 1

SUNDAY BUSINESS

Taking On AmazonAnne Frank wrote the most famousdiary from the Netherlands, but therewere others. Archivists are now dustingthem off and putting them online. PAGE 6

ARTS & LEISURE

The Lost Voices of War

A pandemic has made avoiding politicaltalk nearly impossible for families whosee the danger of the virus differentlybased on whether they watch Fox Newsor MSNBC. PAGE 26

Households Split by TV News

A fascination with songbird competi-tions contributes to poaching that dev-astates the wild population. PAGE 19

‘Indonesian Idol,’ but for Birds

The coronavirus may lead to “a rethinkof how much any country wants to bereliant on any other country.” PAGE 1

A Changed Global Economy

What an emergency room doctor sawas the pandemic engulfed New York’shospitals. PAGE 24

THE MAGAZINE

Diary From the Trenches

Our 52 Places traveler returned toisolation, but reaching out around theworld, he feels far from alone. PAGE 1

TRAVEL

Postcards to Soothe a Plague

U(D547FD)v+#!.!/!?!zViet Thanh Nguyen PAGE 10

SUNDAY REVIEW

How to stay healthy, busy and sane.

SPECIAL SECTION

Pandemic Parenting

Late Edition

VOL. CLXIX . . . No. 58,668 © 2020 The New York Times Company NEW YORK, SUNDAY, APRIL 19, 2020

Today, some sunshine giving way toclouds, milder, high 63. Tonight,cloudy, late showers, low 48. Tomor-row, rain in the morning, high 58.Details, SportsSunday, Page 8.

$6.00