OECS CAS COMPLETION REPORT REVIEW

The 2002 Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS’,, presented a five-year strategy2 focused on the reduction of income insecurity and vulnerability, as well as the development of human and institutional capacity in the region. During this CAS period, however, the regional economic situation deteriorated substantially, as the countries were hit severely by unexpected shocks (September 11 th,

Hurricane Ivan, loss ofpreferential EU trade agreements, and a fiscal crisis in Dominica), which in turn has affected progress toward the objectives of the Bank’s assistance. High levels of public debt, unemployment and poverty, and fiscal imbalances within the individual countries are hindering growth and economic development across the region.

broad-spreading thin the limited Bank resources for the region. Despite the economies of scale envisioned in a regional strategy, the Bank needs to take into account the different levels of readiness and interest of the OECS countries to pursue regional programs. The design of Bank programs needs to be better aligned with the countries’ capacity for both project and reform implementation, and country ownership needs to be in place before projects are implemented. Enhanced donor coordination is also essential for effective Bank assistance. The substantive lack of timely and comparable data across the region by which to measure progress on the CASprogram also needs to be addressed

n e intended outcomes of the original CAS were not attained. Of the ten sub-objectives discussed b e l o ~ , ~ f i v e were not achieved, three were only partially achieved, and another two had mixed results over this period. Thus, OED rates the overall outcome of the FY02 OECS CAS as Moderately Unsatisfactory. At the same time, the Bank showed great flexibility in adapting the program following the various exogenous shocks suffered during the CAS period.

The OED CAS Completion Report Review finds that the FY02 OECS CAS was too

Sub-Regional Objectives, CAS Objectives, Overview of Implementation

1. The FY02 CAS drew on the OECS Development Strategy - a long-term strategic “vision,” the Medium-Term Sub-Regional Development Agenda: and the Medium-Term Economic Strategy Papers o f the five individual countries. The CAS grouped the OECS development goals under two main objectives: (i) reduce income insecurity and vulnerability by fostering a favorable macroeconomic environment and supporting economic diversification; and (ii) build human and institutional capacity by fostering human and institutional development.

There are five borrowing members o f the OECS: Dominica, Grenada, St. Ki t ts & Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines. Antigua & Barbuda, a s i x th member, does not currently borrow from the Bank.

The OECS CAS covered FY02 through FY06. As the next CAS will be initiated a year earlier, the CASCR and CASCR review only cover the period FY02 through FY05.

Table 1 in the CASCR l ists agriculture diversification as one o f the objectives under the Economic Diversification pillar; however, the CAS and the CAS results matrix in the CASCR both indicate that this i s an FA0 and EU focus and that there were no specific World Bank operations under this objective.

Both the OECS Development and the Medium-Term Sub-Regional strategies were developed by the OECS Secretariat and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB).

OECS CASCR, see Table 1 : OECS’s Development Goals and CAS Objectives.

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

2

2. The Bank program favored a “sub-regional approach” to both lending and analytical and advisory work (AAA). While the CAS planned a number o f regionulprograms-projects w h c h simultaneously involved all countries, the majority o f activities were sub-regionul- umbrella programs with horizontal (single country) Adaptable Program Loans (APLs), that allowed countries to jo in the programs as they were ready, and tailor the A P L s to their specific needs. The rationale was to improve the cost effectiveness o f Bank services and assist countries in moving toward sub-regional integration. Yet the horizontal APLs have not reaped the economies o f scale in capacity building, information sharing, and techca l expertise that had originally been envisaged.6 Sub-regional programs st i l l require the preparation and negotiation o f up to five separate projects and necessitate complex supervision arrangements. According to the Quality Assurance Group (QAG), the high administrative costs o f these small projects (average loan size $5.6m) more than off-set any cost savings from preparati~n.~

3. Lending Program. Total lending to the OECS for FY02-05 exceeded planned lending by approximately 32 percent ($123.7m actual versus. $94.lm planned - See Annex Table 1).* Nine additional projects were added to the lending program-seven following unexpected shocks (Hurricane Ivan, September 1 I*, and a fiscal crisis in Dominica) and two follow-on projects were recently approved in water and telecommunications. O f the 18 projects originally proposed by the CAS, only 11 were approved-seven were not realized, including all five regional projects.

4. (ERSO) has been evaluated-the outcome o f the project was satisfactory. However, the CASCR cites performance o f the active portfolio as mixed, noting that implementation has been hindered by and i s s t i l l under significant risk from the severe constraints o f both limited human and institutional capacity, specifically in areas o f financial management and procurement. According to the CASCR, the level o f commitments at risk increased substantially to 3 1 percent in 2004.9 To address these issues, levels o f staff training in the project units and project supervision are being enhanced (see para. 16). Commitment at risk levels have since improved to 18 percent overall (see Annex Table 5 for latest individual country and OECS risk ratios).

O f the FY02 CAS portfolio, only the Dominica Economic Recovery Support Operation

5. considered useful inputs to the policy agendas by stakeholders, who expressed preference for just-in-time policy notes over formal ESW. QA G’s assessment o f the AAA program in the December Country Program Quality Enhancement Review (QER), noted that i t s quality and relevance were generally good, but that greater country ownership, wider dissemination efforts, and enhanced follow-up on recommendations were needed.

AR4 Work. The Bank’s AAA services are highly regarded in OECS countries and

CASCR, para. 23 - bullet 1. QAG. 2004. OECS Country Program Quality Enhancement Review. para. 35.

* Note, planned lending has been adjusted for the revised CAS period FY02-05, including only the FY06 St. Lucia Disaster Management I1 Project, whch was advanced to FY04. Total planned lending for the full five-year CAS period, including FY06 projects was $95m.

CASCR, pg. 8 - Table CAS Period Portfolio Indicators.

3

CAS Implementation by Objectives

Objective I: Reduce Income Insecurity and Vulnerability

Macroeconomic Environment

6. Stability and Growth. The Bank's objectives in this area were to improve fiscal performance through increased public savings, lower fiscal deficits and reduced external debt accumulation; and to enhance the environment for private sector-led economic diversification and growth. The component originally encompassed only AAA, however the Bank approved an additional seven Emergency Recovery Projects in response to the external shocks mentioned in paragraph 3. The outcome for the Dominica Economic Reform Support Project (ERSO) was rated satisfactory by OED; the remaining projects are s t i l l active. The Public Expenditure Analyses were completed; but while analytically rich, dissemination was less than optimal due to the reluctance o f some governments to have the report disseminated. As noted in the CASCR," A Growth and Competitiveness Study for the OECS "Towards a New Agenda for Growth," was recently completed and i s being broadly disseminated across the region.

7. Macroeconomic performance worsened over the period. Economic indicators have deteriorated and fiscal slippages are leading to greater accumulation o f public debt. GDP growth slowed fiom 3.0 percent in 2000 to 0.2 percent in 2002. Although regional growth rates appear to be improving, 2003 GDP growth rates vary significantly across the islands: Dominica -0.6 percent, St. K i t t s & Nevis 0.0 percent, St. Lucia 1.7 percent, St. Vincent 4.0 percent, and Grenada 5.8 percent (See Annex 2 Tables). Fiscal discipline i s weak within the countries, as growth i s primarily maintained through expansionary public expenditures, funded by domestic and external borrowing at commercial terms. By late 2004, regional public debt ratios had reached 106 percent o f GDP, up fiom 83 percent in 2000, yet some governments are reluctant to undertake structural macroeconomic reforms.

8. Further, the OECS Growth and Competitiveness Study12 also points out that fiscal adjustment i s needed to improve the investment climate and reestablish macroeconomic stability for private-sector growth. Whi le the OECS has been extremely competitive in attracting foreign in~estment , '~ the region has been losing ground in comparison to the Caribbean and the rest o f the world. Real wages have grown faster than labor productivity, tourism has been losing market share (worldwide), traditional agriculture exports have been contracting, and businesses are faced with a critical constraint o f skilled labor.

9. income insecurity. However, the objectives were not achieved-there remains an overall absence o f indicators by which to evaluate poverty or income insecurity, and monitoring capacity i s st i l l weak. The IDF grant for the Improving Social Statistics Program (MECOVI), approved in FY02, only became effective in FY04, and only began in April 2005. The poverty

Vulnerabiliq Measures consisted o f strengthening monitoring capacity for poverty and

lo CASCR, para. 8, subbullet Id. Grenada and Dominica have recently initiated adjustment programs to address the hgh debt levels. World Bank. 2005. OECS: Towards a New Agendafor Growth, pg. ix - xii.

l3 The OECS as a whole rated 20 out o f 177 countries in UNCTAD's 2002 FDI Performance Index.

4

analyses planned for FY04/06 were dropped to avoid duplication and allow the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) (with financial support from DFID) to take the lead. However, these assessments have been stretched over time.

Economic Diversitv

1 0. frameworks for both on-and off-shore financial institutions-were partially achieved. An FY02 joint Bank-Fund Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for the Eastem Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) was delayed to FY04 at the request o f the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB). The assessment was highly relevant in terms o f emerging risks, and based on the FSAP recommendations, the ECCB has since revised i t s prudential guidelines on capital adequacy, risk-based supervision, and corporate govemance standards. However, fiscal policy, standardization o f banking laws and supervision o f off-shore banks are at the discretion o f the individual governments. Emerging risks due to regional fiscal pressures are also beginning to impact the financial system: indigenous banks are highly exposed to the deterioration o f their governments’ fiscal p~s i t i on , ’~ and the quality o f capital i s uncertain due to high levels o f unprovisioned, non-performing loans. An FY05 Financial Sector Strengthening project, intended to implement the FSAP recommendations, was dropped.

Financial Sector Development objectives-to strengthen regulatory and supervisory

1 1. Infrastmcture. This component was intended to strengthen or establish (sub-regional) regulatory frameworks in telecommunications, power, and water and sanitation-the results, however, have been mixed. An FY98 Telecom Reform project (ECTEL), which recently exited the portfolio but has yet to be evaluated, significantly helped increase the density o f telecommunications, reduce service costs, and establish a telecommunications regulatory agency for the region over this CAS period. A follow-on project has just been approved. The recently closed St. Lucia Water Sector TA Loan”, initiated a sector law and investment program towards the end o f the program, but fell short o f the development objective to prepare and transit the water company to private sector management. A follow-on Water Supply Infrastructure Improvement Project has just been approved to improve the potential o f a successful public-private partnershp.

12. regulatory frameworks for environmental management across the OECS-have not been met. The Regional Environmental Management Project was dropped and the FY05 GEF Protected Areas project was only recently approved. The economic valuation and environmental management ES W was reformulated into a study on Environmentally Sustainable Tourism, which has been discussed with the governments and disseminated to other key stakeholders to gain future support for environmental management.

Environmental Management objectives-to consolidate legal, institutional, and

l4 The FSAP’s list of risks to fmancial stability notes that some banks have a practice of taking into income accrued interest on government loans in arrears; and apply zero risk weights to public sector debt in arrears. (See

l5 The CASCR categorizes the St. Lucia Water Sector T A Loan under the macroeconomic environment objectives. The CAS, however, classifies the project as a planned intervention under the ‘economic diversification’ components, whch i s where OED has included it for this review.

ECCU FSAP, SECM2004-028 1, BOX 1).

5

13. Disaster Management objectives aimed to strengthen early warning and response mechanisms, enforce building codes, and increase insurance coverage in the region. The results have been partially acheved. Four Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management projects initiated under the previous CAS, but not discussed by the CASCR, have had moderate success in delivering preparedness training; refurbishing and building new storm shelters, emergency operation centers, and communication stations; constructing floodhtorm controls; and strengthening institutional capacity for emergency planning. OED rated both the St. Lucia and St. Ki t ts and Nevis project outcomes as satisfactory; the Dominica project was rated moderately unsatisfactory. The Grenada project i s s t i l l active, as i s the St. Vincent and the Grenadines project approved under the FY02 CAS. The Regional Catastrophe Risk Management and Insurance Program was dropped during this CAS period due to weak government commitment. However, damage caused by Hurricane Ivan has renewed regional interest in the insurance pool for the next CAS period.

14. identified from the onset as an area in w h c h the Bank would not be active (EU / FA0 objective) and therefore i s not considered in regards to the outcome rating for the Bank strategy.

Agriculture DiversiJication, although listed as an objective in the CAS matrix, was

15. economic diversity and overall progress under th is pillar has been mixed.

The CAS was not clear on how specific proposed Bank interventions would lead to

Objective II: Human and Institutional Development

Human Development

16. Education. Despite nearly universal primary education, the quality and equity o f education in most countries remains below international standards. The low education and ski l l levels (especially sk i l ls needed for the global economy) are constraining growth and limiting labor productivity. l6 The CAS targeted and partially achieved curriculum reform and increased access to secondary education. However, the CASCR suggests that these objectives w i l l be attained over the next CAS period, as Bank projects are primarily focusing on civil works projects which have been delayed while DFID completes the curriculum reform and bid process leading into the projects.

17. Two Basic Education Projects approved under previous CAS, which addressed construction o f secondary schools, teacher training, and curricula development, closed with satisfactory and moderately satisfactory OED outcome ratings. Though secondary enrollment targets under those projects were reported to have been met, more problematic i s the estimation that only half or less o f those enrolled at the secondary level will complete the cycle. l7

Although i t i s too early to assess outcomes o f the four active Education Development projects approved under this CAS, two o f these projects-St. Lucia and St. K i t t s and Nevis-are struggling with low disbursements, inadequate capacity, and high levels o f staff turnover.

l6 World Bank. 2005. A Time to Choose: Caribbean Development in the 21" Century. Rep. 31725. para. 6.5. l7 QAG. 2004. OECS Country Program Quality Enhancement Review. Annex C.

6

Increased supervision efforts--from bi-annual to quarterly missions-are being initiated to improve the implementation o f these projects.

18. Health. The objectives in this sector focused on managing the HIV/AIDS epidemic, which threatens to reverse social gains and undermine growth and economic development across the region. The WHO estimates the prevalence o f HIV/AIDS in the Caribbean to be approximately one percent o f the population - second only to rates in Sub-Saharan Africa," - but there are no reliable indicators on infection rates by which to gauge progress in this area. The Bank has approved four HIV/AIDS loans under this CAS. Although it i s too soon to assess outcomes, two o f the projects-Grenada and St. K i t ts and Nevis-have been hampered by low disbursement levels (lags near or exceeding go%), procurement bottlenecks, inadequate institutional capacity, and staff ski l ls in the project coordination unit (PCU), limited government support, and rudimentary M&E.

19. direction for this component was to reduce poverty rates by five percentage points-but with no baseline indicators for the countries or ongoing poverty assessments, this proved to be an unusable benchmark. The AAA intended to gather these data has either been delayed (MECOVI) or transferred to the CDB (poverty assessments) and thus not completed." Regional Gini coefficients (0.4 to 0.5) indicate that income inequality i s high, unemployment rates range -from 5-25 percent across the islands (higher for youth and women), and poverty rates are estimated between 12-38 percent. A Caribbean-wide Youth and Social Development study was produced in FY02 to address the high prevalence o f youth among the poor and unemployed, but governments are not interested in borrowing for programs on youth and social development.

Social Protection objectives were not met, due in part to external shocks. The strategic

Institutional Development

20. and budget management procedures, promote efficient service delivery and monitor outcomes-have not been achieved. The regional PSM project never materialized.20

Public Sector Management (PSM). The overall PSM objectives-to strengthen planning

21. related to organizing the Caribbean Group Cooperation in Economic Development (CGCED) Meetings and the preparation o f the Medium-Term Economic Strategy Papers. At the 2002 CGCED meeting, however, the responsibilit for these tasks was transferred to the CDB and i s no longer under the leadership o f the Bank?' The UNDP has since taken the lead in coordinating donor activities and the OECS secretariat now hosts the annual donor meetings. The Bank's role in aid coordination has diminished over time; however, i t did host an international donor conference in late 2004 to raising $135m in funds for Grenada following

Strutegic Aid Coordination objectives, as defined in the CAS, were focused on activities

Sub-Saharan Afiica HIVIAIDS rates are estimated at 7.5% o f the population. l9 See paragraph 9 above. 2o The CASCR indicates there would have been 5 sub-regional PSM projects, but the CAS planned lending program lists one regional PSM project. 21 At the 2002 Caribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Development (CGCED), the predecessor to the current Caribbean Forum Development (CFD), responsibility for organizing future meetings was handed over to the CDB. The first CFD meeting was held in M a y 2005.

7

Hurricane Ivan. Because the responsibility for this sub-objective was fully transferred to other partners early on in the CAS period, OED has not considered this sub-objective in regard to the overall outcome rating.

Role of the Bank

22. donor, behind the EU and CDB (including on-lending from the IADB), it only provides around 10 percent o f total disbursements. It i s also the only major donor without a physical presence in the region. Other multi- and bi-lateral donors include the CIDA, DFID, OAS, UNDP, USAID, China, France, Japan, Kuwait, and Taiwan. Whi le donor relations are good, overall coordination i s fragmented, leading to overcrowding and overlapping in some sectors (e.g. education) and lack o f resources in others. The Bank, with the support o f the UNDP, recently launched an online “Redbook”-an intemet-based platform for knowledge sharing and coordination between partners. As the fiscal and debt situation worsens, discussions are also advancing on establishing a Bank-administered Multi-donor Trust Fund to disburse grant funds to the region. However, coordination i s st i l l hindered by the governments’ preference to deal with donors separately on country programs.

The Bank’s financial contribution to the OECS i s relatively small-as third largest

Overall OED Assessment

23. Whi le the strategic directives and CAS priorities were appropriate in terms o f alignment with both the regional and country strategies for the OECS members, the broad scope o f these strategies created a lack o f focus in the CAS program, spreading the Bank’s (limited) resources across numerous sub-objectives. The intended CAS outcomes were not attained. In terms o f outcome results for the ten rated sub-objectives:22 five were not achieved (stability and growth, vulnerability measures, environmental management, social protection, and public sector management); three were partially achieved (financial sector development, disaster mitigation and education); and the remaining two had mixed outcomes over this CAS period (infrastructure and health). For these reasons, OED rates the overall outcome of the FY02 OECS CAS as Moderately Unsatisfactory. At the same time, the Bank showed great flexibility in responding to the region’s needs, especially following the exogenous shocks that affected the countries during th is CAS period.

Assessment of the C A S Completion Report

24. OECS CAS. For the most part, OED concurs with the CASCR’s ratings o f the sub-objectives, however, we find the overall assessment o f the CAS outcomes-“substantial progress towards acheving a number o f key goals [was made],”23 over-rated in light o f the actual results. The CASCR would have benefited from greater inclusion o f indicators of growth or progress against the objectives, but the general lack of data for the region make it difficult to elaborate on many o f these details.

The CASCR adequately addresses the key issues and Bank activities in the FY02-06

22 The Agriculture and Aid Coordination sub-objectives were not rated in terms o f outcome results, as the World Bank was either not active in the specified activities-either by design (agriculture) or due to a transfer o f responsibility (aid coordination). 23 CASCR, para. 8.

8

Findings and Recommendations

25. The countries o f the OECS face unique development challenges, due to their small size and vulnerability to natural disasters and external shocks. While flexibility i s necessary to meet these challenges, selectivity i s also just as impor tan t4AS objectives need to be more targeted with defined indicators by which to measure future progress. The implementation o f the FY02 CAS program and the CASCR present the following findings and recommendations:

0 Regionalism. The Bank needs to take into account the different levels o f readiness and interest among the OECS countries to pursue regional programs. The CAS needs to balance the unique situations o f these small states with the overall goals for the region and ensure there i s adequate government support and ownership for the regional and sub-regional programs prior to implementation.

0 Donor Coordination. Simplified and harmonized donor regulations could improve disbursement levels, decrease implementation delays and avoid overlaps or gaps in aid programs for the OECS countries.

Capacity Building. The Bank needs to be realistic about the implementation and reform capacity o f the OECS countries. While ski l ls enhancement i s critical for the labor force, this i s also necessary for local PCU staff By increasing training in financial management, procurement and project procedures, implementation delays can be decreased.

Lack of Data. Monitoring and measuring progress in the region i s hampered by the absence o f data in many o f the sectors. Although this i s a particular problem among small states, the Bank needs to work with other donors to develop accurate country-by- country databases and continue to promote local capacity building for data collection and M&E work.

0

0

9

Total St. Vincent and the Grenadines 10.56 11.75

OECS Regional Projects Planned FY03 Catastrophe Risk Mgmt. & Insurance 2.40 1.60 Dropped b FY04 Public Sector Reform 3.60 2.40 Dropped d FY04 Regional Environmental Management 3.60 2.40 Dropped b FY05 Financial Sector Strengthening 3.60 2.40 Dropped b FY05 Regional Regulatory Strengthening 3.60 2.40 Dropped b Total Planned 16.80 11.20

Non-Programmed FY05 Telecommunications and ICT Development Additional 1.36 1.35 b

GEF FY03 Adaptable Climate Change II 5.00 Actual 5.00 b FY05 OECS Protected Areas and Assoc. Live 3.70 Actual 3.70 b

Total OECS Regional Projects 16.80 11.20 1.36 1.35

GEF 8.70 8.70

Actual Planned OECS Total 50.01 35.41 59,41 55.60

Source: OECS 2002 Country Assistance Strategy and World Bank Business Warehouse - GEF total 8.70 8.70

Annex Table 1: CAS - Proposed versus Actual Commitments (US$ mill) I IBRD IDA I . .- . ... .- Dominica

Educational Development 2.00 2.00 Dropped FY03 HIV/AIDS Prevention 8 Control 1.50 1.50 Dropped

l z n n e d 3.50 3.50

C C

Nan-Programmed FY02 Emergency Recovery Project Additional 0.96 2.24 a -04 Economic Recovery Support Operations Additional 3.00 a d Total Domlnka 0.96 5.24

Grenada Planned

HlVlAlDS Prevention & Control 1.50 1.50 Delayed - FY03 3.00 3.04 Educational Development 3.38 3.38 Actual 4.00 4.00

Total Planned 4.88 4.88 7.00 7.04

C C

Nan-Programmed Emergency Recovery Project Hurricane Ivan Emergency Recovery

Additional 1.14 2.66 a Additional 5 5 a

Total Grenada 13.14 14.70

St. Kitts and Nevis Planned FY02 Educational Developnient 6.00 Actual 5.00 C FY02 HIV/AIDS Prevention 8 Control 3.00 Delayed - FY03 4.05 C Total Planned 9.00 9.05

b;Programmed Emergency Recovery Project Additional 4.40 a

Total St. KMts and Nevls 13.45

St. Lucia Planned FY02 Educational Development 4.00 4.00 Actual 6.00 6.00 C FY02 HIV/AIDS Prevention & Control 1.50 1.50 Delayed - FY05 3.20 3.20 C FY02 TA Water Sector Reform 1.25 1.25 Actual 1.30 1.30 b -06 Disaster Management II 1.20 1.20 Advanced - FY04 3.7 3.8 b Total Planned 7.95 7.95 14.20 14.30

Nan-Programmed Emergency Recovery Project Water Suppiy Infrastructure Improvement

Additional 1.89 4.41 a Additional 3.85 3.85 b

Total St. Lucla 19.94 22.56

St. Vincent and the Gmnadines Planned FY02 Disaster Management 3.00 3.00 Actual 3.00 2.91 b FY03 HWAIDS Prevention & Control 1 S O 1.50 Delayed - FY05 3.50 3.50 C FY03 Educational Development 3.38 3.38 Delayed - FY04 3.10 3.10 C Total Planned 7.88 7.88 9.60 9.51

Non-Programmed Emergency Recovery Project Additional 0.96 2.24 a

10

Current account balance (% of GDP) Total Debt Service (% of exports of goods and services) External debt (% of GNI) Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) IBRD loans and IDA credits (PPG DOD, current million US$) Expenditure, total (% of GDP) Overall budget balance, excluding grants (% of GDP) Overall budget balance, including grants (% of GDP) Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) Immunization, DPT (%of children ages 12-23 months) Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access)

' Improved water source (% of population with access) Life expectancy at birth, total (years) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) Population growth (annual %) Population, total (in thousand) School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) School enrollment, primary (% gross) School enrollment, secondary (% gross) Urban population (% of total) Source: WB SlMA database, April 21,2005

Annex 2: Economic and Social Indicators 1999-2003 (by country)

0.9 1.5 0.2 1.6 99.0 99.0 98.0 99.0

.. 83.0 ..

.. 97.0 ..

.. 76.6 76.7 14.0 12.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.2 71.3 71.1 71.1 71.2 75.7 .. 51.0 .. 99.5 .. 88.2 .. 95.4 .. 113.9 .. 71.0 71.4 71.7 72.0

I Antlgua 8 Barbuda

.. 22.3

-1.3 1 .I

98.8 84.6 90.0 83.0 97.0 76.7 13.0 -0.1 1.6 1.3 71.2 499538.8 316505.7 63.4 49.9 59.9 93.9 118.6

104.7 70.4 74.2 71.5 74.7 74.3

Serles Name GDP growth (annual %) GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) GNI per capita, PPP (current international $)

Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) Improved water source (% of population with access) Life expectancy at biru1. total (years) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) Population growth (annual %) Population, total (in thousand) School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) School enrollment, primary (% gross) School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

GDP per capita growth (annual %) Aariculture, value added (% of GDP)

GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) GNI per capita, PPP (current international $)

Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) Industry, value added (% of GDP) Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) Current account balance [% of GDP) otal Debt Service (% of exports of goods and services) P External debt I% of GNI) ross domestic savings(% of GDP) RD loans and IDA credits fPPG DOD. current million US$)

Expenditure, total (% of GDP) Overall budget balance, excluding grants (% of GDP) I Overall budget balance, including grants (% of GDP) Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months)

lurban population (% of total) source: WB SlMA database, April 21, 2005

2000 2001 2002 200 1.5 2.3 2.9 3.

8610 8580 8770 916' 9200 9190 9520 973 -0.6 -2.4 1.9 0.. 3.9 3.8 3.8

68.9 63.3 60.5 74.7 68.1 68.4 19.8 21.2 21.7 76.3 75.0 74.6 -9.9 -9.2 -14.2

22.4 24.0 21.8

95.0 97.0 99.0 99.0 95.0 .. 91.0 .. 75.3 75.4

13.0 .. 11.0 2.0 4.6 1 .o 2.7

72.3 75.7 76.5 78.6

36.8 37.1 37.4 37.8

17.2 32. 19.2 33.

: Indicators 1999-2003 Domlnlca

3220 4875 5959 8790

1 .I -3.6 -5.2 -0.81 -2.11 0.7 18.1 17.7 18.6 ..I 18.11 7.6

45.5 53.81 5 1 . ~ 'll:: 63.3 61.5 63.7

23.4 22.2 21.0 22.2 19.2 33.6 58.4 60.1 60.4 59.6 63.0 60.2

7.4 13.0 9.7 14.6 11.2 32.6 16.5 69.7 88.1 98.6 123.1 94. 39.7 27.

-19.5 -18.6 -15.1 -19.3 -18.1

10.1 3.4 2.8 I 5.4 19.7 23. 16.0 16.5 20.3 22.31 18.81

11

Annex 2: Economic and Social Indicators 1999-2003 (by country) -cont.

Grenada

2000 2001 2002 2003 6.9 -5.0 -1 .I 5.8

3630 3530 3420 3710 6900 6630 6600 7030

6.2 -6.2 -1.9 4.6 7.8 7.8 7.5

57.9 52.3 47.4 74.7 63.6 57.2 24.0 22.5 22.6

Table 2c - Grenada: Economic and S I Average

Grenada LAC UMI 2.2 2.7

3573 3220 4875 6790 5959 8790

0.7 0.7 1.4 7.7 7.6 6.2

52.5 16.1 34.1 65.2 17.2 32.4 23.0 19.2 33.6

1.7 Series Name GDP growth (annual %) GNI Der caDita. Atlas method (current US$) GNI per capita; PPP (current iitemationali) GDP per capita growth (annual %)

Agriculture. value added (% of GDP)

54.1 84.4 97.6 96.8 25.6 20.7 22.2 11.8 12.6 20.4 25.7

&ports of goods and sk i ces (YO of GDP) Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) I indusbv. value added (% of GDP)

78.2 39.7 27.5 22.8 19.7 23.2

.. 28016.6 17.6

ServiCaS, etc., value added v/. O~GDP) Current account balance (% of GDP)

2.1 1.7 1.1 .. 92.0 99.0 96.0 99.0

97.0

Total Debt Service (% of exports of goods and services) I Extemal debt (% of GNU

1.6 96.5 84.6 90.0 97.0

Gross domestc savings.(% of GDP) IBRD loans and IDA credits (PPG 000. current million US$)

Improved water source (% of population with access) Life expectancy at birth, total (years) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) Population growth (annual %) Population, total (in thousand) School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) Schod enrdlment, primary (%gross) School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

Expenditure, total (% of GDP) Overall budget balance, excluding grants (% of GDP) I Overall budget balance, including grants (% of GDP)

95.0 73.0 73.1

21 .o .. .. 18.0 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.1

101.4 102.6 103.5 104.6 67.9 94.6

Inflation, consumer prices (annual%) Immunization, OPT (% ofchildren ages 12-23 months) Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access)

95.0 73.1 19.5 1 .o 1.6

103.0 499538.8 316505.

94.6 118.6

-0.7 -0.8 0.8 0.0 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.0

45.6 46.4 46.0 36.9

IUrban population (% of total) source: WB SlMA database, April 21, 2005

-0.2 0.7 1.4 3.0 7.6 6.2

43.7 16.1 34.1

Table 2d - St. K i t t s & Nevis: Econo

I

68.4 66.8 67.1 68.7

12.9 13.5 24.5 35.0 -20.1 -30.8 -34.8 -26.2

Series Name GDP growth (annual %) GNI per capita. Atlas method (current US$) GNI Der caDita. PPP (current international $1

67.8 63.0 60.2

21.5 32.6 16.5 -28.0

DPper gro$h (annual %) griculture, value added (% of GDP)

52.4 71.6 85.6 103.7 20.0 30.9 22.3 28.9 5.9 8.0 10.1 13.4

2.1 1.5 2.1 2.2 99.0 90.0 99.0 98.0

96.0 .. 99.0 .. 71.3 71.5

21 .o 19.0 4.7 4.0 1.3 0.0

44.3 46.1 46.7 46.7 141.6 .. 117.3 _.

34.1 34.3 34.5 34.7

Exports of gwds and services (% of GDP) Imports of m s and services (% of GDP) I Indusbv, value added (% of GDP)

78.3 39.7 27.5 25.5 19.7 23.2 9.4 .. 28016.6

22.3

-1.3 2.0

96.5 84.6 90.0 96.0 99. 71.4 20.0 2.5 1.8 1.3

46.0 499538.8 316505.7 141.6 49.9 59.9 117.3 118.6

70.4 74.2 34.4 74.7 74.3

Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) Current account balance (% of GDP) Total Debt Service (% of exports of goods and services)

Improved sanitationkcilities (% of population with a&=) Improved water source (% of population with access) Life expectancy at birth, total (years) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) Population growth (annual %) Population, total Schod enrollment, preprimary (% gross) School enrollment, primary 1% gross) Schod enrollment. secondaw (% arossl

IExtemal debt (% of GNI) Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) IERD loans and IDA credits fPPG DOD. current million U S Expenditure, total (% of GDP) Overall budget balance, excluding grants (% of GDP) I Overall budget balance, including grants (% of GDP) Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) Immunization. OPT (% of children aaes 12-23 months)

_ . - I

JUrban population i% of total) source: WB SlMA database, April 21, 2005

68.2 89.7 69.8 I 69.4 -20.7 -24.7 -28.1 35.71 -27.31

6.0 8.6 15.9 18.01 12.11 32.6 16.51

::I ;;I .. .. " "31 -1.3

37.9 38.5 39.0 39.6

ic and Sector Indicators 1999-2003 St. Kltts & Nevis I Average

I I I 2000 2001 2002 2003 I St.Kitta I LAC UMI

4.1 3.3 2.1 0.01 2.41 2.2 2.

879 6500 6440 3220

10150 10310

33.6 17.2 :i:d 19.2

75.2 69.1 71.2 28.9 30.3 29.7

12

5250 5020 5170 5310 -1.6 -6.6 1.5 0.8 7.4 6.8 6.4 5.4

Annex 2: Economic and Social Indicators 1999-2003 (by country) - cont.

5186 5959 8790 -1.5 0.7 1.4 6.5, 7.6 6.2

Table 2e - St. Lucia: Economic and

GNI per capita, PPP (current international $)

19.6 19.4 18.5 18.0 73.0 73.8 75.1 76.6

-11.5 -11.5 -15.4 ".

&ports of goods and services (% of GDP) Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) Industry, value added (% of GDP)

otal Debt Service f% of exoorts of goods and services)

18.9 19.2 33.6 74.6 63.0 60.2

-12.8,

Extemal debt (% 0f'GNI) '

Gmss domestic savings (% of GDP) IBRD loans and IDA credits (PPG DOD, current million US9

36.8 38.6 65.5 57.2 17.4 16.4 16.8 15.2 17.6 17.0 26.0 33.3

Expenditure, total (% of GDP) Overall budget balance, excluding grants ("h of GDP) I Overall budget balance, including grants (% of GDP)

49. 39.7 27.5 16. 19.7 23.2 23.51 .. 28016.6

Inflation. consumer prices (annual %) Immunization, DPT (% of children a w s 12-23 months)

3.8 0.1 1.6 0.9 88.0 89.0 98.0 90.0

-1.3

91.3 84.6 90.0 1.6

lurban population (% of total) some: WE SlMA database, April 21,2005

Improved sanitationkcilities (% of population with access) Improved water source (x of population with access) Life expectancy at birth, total (years) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) Population growth (annual %) Population, total (in thousand) School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) School enrollment, primary (% gross) School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

:ctor Indicators 1999-2003 St. Lucla I Average

I I I

89.0 .. 98.0 ..

71.8 73.7 74.0 17.0 16.0 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.9

156.0 158.0 159.1 160.6 64.8 65.4 64.1 ..

112.6 111.3 111.8 .. 85.9 86.0 86.8 .. 37.8 38.0 38.3 38.6

2000 2001 2002 20031 St.Lucl4 LAC UMI -0.1 -5.6 2.2 1.71 -0.W 2.2 2.7

89.0 98.0 73.2 16.5 1 .I 1.6 1.3

158.4 499538.8 316505.7 64.8 49.9 59.9

111.9 118.6 86.2 70.4 74.2 38.2 74.7 74.3

3880 40501 39331 3220 48751 4010 3790

16.1 :i:d 17.2 32.4 53.2 54.4 46.3 62.4 64.1 52.2

16.51 8.71 8.01 32.6 8.0 7.5 7.9

::I ::I 22.31

Table 2f - St. Vincent & the Grenadines: Economic and Sector Indicators 1999-2003

sowce: WB SlMA database, April 21, 2005

I

-0 C m .- b - a

In co co 3

In 0 0

h.

In 0

e v .

r 8 d 0 .- E

i W

TI C m

15

I Country 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Dominica # Proj 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 # P r o j At R i s k 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 % At R i s k 0.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Comm Amt 11.2 11.2 11.2 6.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 Comm At R i s k 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Y Commit at R i s k 0.0 45.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Grenada # Proj 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 # Proj At R i s k 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 % At R i s k 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 20.0 Net Comm Amt 7.7 7.7 17.7 13.9 27.9 27.9 37.9 Comm At R i s k 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 YO Commit at R i s k 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.6 15.9

St. ISit ts and Nevis # Proj 1 1 1 3 4 3 3 # Proj At R i s k 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 Yo At R i s k 0.0 100.0 0.0 33.3 0.0 33.3 33.3 Net Comm Amt 19.6 8.5 8.5 17.9 21.9 13.4 13.4 Comm At R i s k 0.0 8.5 0.0 4.4 0.0 5.0 4.0 YO Commit at R i s k 0.0 100.0 0.0 24.6 0.0 37.2 30.1

St. Luua # Proj 2 3 2 5 5 4 6 # Proj At R i s k 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

O h At R i s k 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 16.7 Net Comm Amt 12.8 15.8 9.0 29.9 29.9 28.4 42.5 Cnmm At R i s k 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 % Commit at R i s k 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.3 28.2

?

St. Vincent and the # Proj 2 2 ' 3 4

# Proj At R i s k 0 1 1 0 Y' At R i s k 0.0 50.0 33.3 0.0 Net Comm Amt 9.1 9.1 15.3 22.3 Comm At R i s k 0.0 5.9 5.9 0.0

O h Commit at R i s k 0.0 64.9 38.6 0.0

Grenadines

OECS Projects # Proj 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 # Proj At R i s k 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ?lo At R i s k 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Comm Amt 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 6.0 6.0 2.7 Comm At R i s k 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 YO Commit at R i s k 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total OECS Portfolio # Proj 8 9 9 16 17 16 20 (all coun@ies/projects) # Proj At R i s k 0 2 0 1 1 4 3

O h At R i s k 0 22 0 6.3 5.9 25.0 15.0 Net Comm Amt 69 61 64 94.7 98.1 94.3 122.1 Comm At R i s k 0 14 0 4.4 5.9 29.0 22.1

I

I O h Commit at R i s k 0 22 0 4.6 6.0 30.7 18.1 Source: Business Warehouse as ofJune 6, 2005 -- Table 3a4.

16

Annex 6: Net Disbursements and Charges Summary Report, FY1999-2005 (by country)

Table 6a - Dominica: Net Disbursements and Charges, FY 1999-2005

I FY Gross Disbursement Repayment Net Disbursement Interest Fees Net Transfer 1999 1,395.82 112.16 1,283.66 106.70 35.58 1,176.96 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

2,050.20 112.88 1,937.32 170.43 14.93 1,766.89 512.30 108.56 403.74 263.45 11.31 140.29

1,676.48 104.30 1,572.1 8 280.53 10.30 1,291.65 2,663.41 330.32 2,333.09 328.93 16.41 2,004.16 4,327.78 590.41 3,737.37 372.07 7.36 3,365.3 1

2005 1,242.51 663.1 7 579.33 324.73 5.42 254.60 Total 13,868.49 2,021.79 11,846.69 1,846.84 101.33 9,999.85

Source: WB Clientconnection June IO, 2005

Table 6b - Grenada: Net Disbursements and Charges, FY 1999-2005 FY Gross Disbursement Repayment Net Disbursement Interest Fees Net Transfer

1999 1,418.63 68.43 1,350.19 57.12 9.57 1,293.08 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

1,992.62 66.95 1,925.67 72.55 12.09 1,853.1 2 2,598.20 63.23 2,534.97 165.93 58.24 2,369.03 2,643.1 1 63.59 2,579.52 271 5 7 16.96 2,307.95 7,282.1 1 67.38 7,214.73 334.86 62.50 6,879.87 1,787.51 220.68 1,566.84 399.73 86.97 1,167.1 1

2005 5,922.09 626.64 5,298.44 427.53 92.84 4,870.91 Total 23,644.27 1,176.91 22,470.35 1,729.29 339.17 20,741.06

Source: WB Clientconnection June IO, 2005

Table 6c - St. K i t t s & Nevis: Net Disbursements and Charges, FY 1999-2005 FY Gross Disbursement Repayment Net Disbursement Interest Fees Net Transfer

1999 214.94 77.87 137.07 77.10 93.67 59.98 2000 2,881.67 65.74 2,815.93 194.56 28.95 2,621.38 2001 1,378.30 54.04 1,324.26 315.26 20.50 1,009.01 2002 1,895.54 121.27 1,774.27 382.17 17.17 1,392.1 0 2003 4,121.47 366.96 3,754.51 475.90 165.44 3,278.61 2004 2,376.68 669.23 1,707.45 556.57 43.51 1,150.88 2005 1,655.06 873.34 781.72 590.58 35.45 191.14 Total 14,523.67 2,228.45 12,295.22 2,592.13 404.69 9,703.09

Source: WB Clientconnection June IO, 2005

17

Annex 6: Net Disbursements and Charges Summary Report, FY 1999-2005 (by country) - cont.

Table 6d - St. Lucia: Net Disbursements and Charges, FY 1999-2005 FY Gross Disbursement Repayment Net Disbursement Interest Fees Net Transfer

1999 1,728.33 187.23 1,541.10 359.25 14.12 1 ,I 81.84 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

1,893.61 361.24 1,532.37 41 1.47 68.82 1,120.90 1,224.56 754.83 469.74 376.70 20.59 93.04 1,750.89 823.52 927.37 302.31 92.72 625.07

10,763.72 I ,214.66 9,549.06 398.16 103.88 9,150.90 4,058.1 7 1,438.91 2,619.26 563.20 66.75 2,056.06

2005 3,534.39 1 ,I 81.46 2,353.46 521.14 119.57 1,832.31 Total 24,953.68 5,961.85 18,992.35 2,932.22 486.46 16,060.13

Source: WB Clientconnection June IO, 2005

Table 6e - St. Vincent & the Grenadines: Net Disbursements and Charges, FY1999-2005 FY Gross Disbursement Repayment Net Disbursement Interest Fees Net Transfer

1999 220.13 108.57 111.56 68.02 6.01 43.53 (1 70.46) 2000 24.01 127.69 (103.69) 66.77 6.03

200 1 362.06 122.17 239.89 60.13 6.02 179.76 1,283.62 2002 1,459.85 117.01 1,342.83 59.22 6.03

2003 1,726.80 288.96 1,437.84 72.40 49.49 1,365.44 2004 1,196.12 136.63 1,059.49 98.47 26.13 961.02 2005 2,338.43 272.92 2,065.50 11 1.78 63.77 1,953.72 Total 7,327.39 1,173.97 6,153.43 536.79 163.47 5,616.63

Source: WB Clientconnection June 10, 2005

18

Annex 7: Millennium Development Goals

19

20

21

Trade (% of GDP) I 134.91 119.21 124.11 120.81 92.8 Source: World Development Indicators database, April 2005

22

23

Trade (Oh of GDP) I 142.61 116.61 127.11 114.31 112.3 Source: World Development Indicators database, Apnl2005