oecd 2 nd international cat risks conference bangkok, sept 25 th 2009

Bringing Science to the Art of Underwriting™

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The provision of mapped hazard data – availability and best practice in SE Asia

Robert Muir-Wood & Owen Gough

OECD 2nd International Cat Risks Conference

Bangkok, Sept 25th 2009

CONFIDENTIAL© 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.

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Agenda

Best practices in the provision of hazard data

Relevant perils in SE Asia

Availability of mapped hazard data across SE Asia

Implications of the hazard data deficit – where should provision and access now be focused?

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Hazard Map – Producing AuthorityType of map Either risk based (probabilistic/historical) or forecastParameters Damaging agent A, damaging agent B, damaging agent CRisk Boundaries Boundaries for damaging agent A, boundaries for damaging agents B and CInformation Preparedness, evacuation or response informationRetrieval Method How the data is retrieved by the user (e.g. address search or coordinates)Access How the user initially locates the map or the search form

CoverageStars approximately represent the coverage of the risk area e.g. US hurricane maps achieve coverage despite only including the East/Gulf Coast

Best Practices

Very Good Very difficult to improveGood Sufficient but minor improvements possible

Average Functional but requires some improvementPoor Very limited requires substantial improvement

Key to tables

Key to colours


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Tsunami Threat Map – FESA Western AustraliaType of map Probabilistic Parameters Wave heightRisk Boundaries 100/500/1000/2000 year RPInformation NoneRetrieval Method Not searchableAccess Map available on FESA website, full report linked from GA websiteCoverage Covers entire area at risk from tsunamis

Tsunamis

Maximum wave heights along the

WA coast for return periods of a) 100

years, b) 500 years, c) 1000 years, d)

2000 years


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My Hazards – CALEMAType of map ProbabilisticParameters Shaking, liquefaction, landslide, fault ruptureRisk Boundaries High/medium, at risk areasInformation Preparedness information tailored to each risk level, multi-formatRetrieval Method Search by zip/address/coordinatesAccess Prominent banner link from California state and emergency websiteCoverage Covers all areas of the state of California

Earthquakes

Screenshot of the information page showing the risk

level of hazards, the checklist of

suggested steps to prepare and the tabs to view flood and fire

risk


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Hurricane Preparedness – NHC/NOAAType of map ProbabilisticParameters Intensity (Saffir-Simpson scale)Risk Boundaries Exact return periods for 75nm areasInformation None (available in other sections of NHC website)Retrieval Method Selectable by three areas of coast (Gulf, Southeast, Northeast)Access Link from NHC websiteCoverage Covers all of East and Gulf coast but only at discrete points

Tropical Storms

NHC map of the Gulf Coast showing

return periods for Category 5 hurricanes


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New Orleans Risk – US Army Corps of EngineersType of map ProbabilisticParameters Height of inundationRisk Boundaries 2%/1%/0.2% annual probabilities on separate maps (50/100/500 year RP)Information None (available in other sections of New Orleans Risk website)Retrieval Method Selectable by city area

AccessWhilst this is easily available on NOR website, links should be available from more obvious sites such as Louisiana or New Orleans disaster planning sites

Coverage Covers New Orleans and Plaquemines but not entire NO metro area

Storm Surges

Example of 1% flood heights for the

French Quarter, New Orleans


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Flood Map – England and Wales EAType of map ProbabilisticParameters No informationRisk Boundaries 1%/0.5%/0.1% annual chance of flooding (100/200/1000 year RP)Information Tailored information for each flood risk categoryRetrieval Method Search by postcode or browse mapAccess Prominent link from Environment Agency websiteCoverage Covers all of England and Wales

Floods

Screenshot of map showing regions of

likely flooding, extreme flooding

and protected zones. Data on specific location risk is

available by clicking on the map


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Mt. Rainier – USGSType of map ProbabilisticParameters Lahars, all other volcanic hazardsRisk Boundaries 1-100/100-500/500-1000 year RP, 100-1000 year RPInformation None (available on other sections of USGS volcano site)Retrieval Method Viewed by volcanoAccess Easily located from main USGS hazards pageCoverage Detailed mapping only covers areas surrounding major volcanoes

Volcanoes

Extract from hazard map for Mt. Rainier,

Washington


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Progetto IFFI – ISPRAType of map Probabilistic/HistoricalParameters Superficial landslides, subsidence, collapse, expansionRisk Boundaries Only given as ‘at risk’ areasInformation NoneRetrieval Method By address or areaAccess Theoretically easily accessed but site frequently goes downCoverage All of Italy covered CHECK THIS

Landslides

Extract from the IFFI GIS map. Dark green

areas are at risk from superficial landslides, Light green areas have

COLAMENTO RAPIDO, Purple

hatching represents urban development and Red areas have

experienced collapse or tipping.


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Country – Major Hazards

HazardMap Type Coverage Damaging Agents Boundaries

Information/Reporting Retrieval Accessibility

Eq Earthquake hazardFl Flood hazardLs Landslide hazardTr/Ss Trop. storm and surge hazardTs Tsunami hazardVo Volcanic hazard

Perfect Very difficult to improveGood Sufficient but minor improvements possible

Average Functional but requires some improvementPoor Very limited requires substantial improvement

Approximate representation of area covered by hazard maps

Key to tables

Key to colours

Survey of Hazard Informationin South East Asia


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Countries included in the report


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Bangladesh

Cyclone Sidr, November 2007Casualties: 3,300Losses: US$470million•Strongest Indian Ocean cyclone ever recorded•Caused massive storm surge devastating low land areas•Would have caused 100,000+ casualties had it not been for early evacuation

Bangladesh – Eq, Fl, Tr/Ss

EarthquakesProbabilistic Shaking 475 year RP

Local disaster action plans, road map for improvements

No search functionLess detailed version available on

DBM website

FloodsProbabilistic Duration, depth Combined vulnerability index

Warnings and preparedness information

No search function Not apparently available online

Tropical StormsStorm Surges

Probabilistic Wind risk, storm surge At risk, high/med riskWarnings online, other information

available to public but not onlineNo search function Linked from DMB website


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Cambodia

Severe Flooding, September-October 2000Casualties: 350Losses: US$160million•Large lengths of the Mekong River burst its banks•22 out of 24 provinces were affected•More than 3.4million people displaced

Cambodia – Fl

Floods

Historical Maximum historic flood At risk areaThorough warnings and

preparedness info, along with forecast data

Selectable by river stationsNo obvious website for Cambodian

Disaster Management


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Indonesia – Eq, Fl, Ls, Ts, Vo

EarthquakesProbabilistic Ground shaking 475/2500 year RP

Well reported on the BMG website, some information on hazards

No search functionLinked from the PVMBG website. More

detailed map from USGS

FloodsP/F Flooding High/Medium/Low risk

Forecast for up to 2 months available, information available

Selectable by areaMaps linked from BMG website, but

information harder to find

LandslidesProbabilistic Landslide High/Medium/Low risk

Plenty of information available on PVMBG website

Selectable by area Linked from the PVMBG website

TsunamisHistorical Damaged area -

Preparedness road shows/online information and early warning

Selectable by area Not directly available on Indonesian websites

VolcanoesWorst Case

Debris avalanches, pyroclastic flows, lateral blasts, tephra, lahars

Worst case limits, 200/300/500/700 m3/s volume flux

Hazard levels and information for major volcanoes is on PVMBG.

PVMBG information selectable by volcanoPVMBG information easily available. Detailed

Merabi map in a paper.

Indonesia

Earthquake, 27th May 2006Casualties: 5,800Losses: US$3100million•Magnitude 6.2 event some 25km South-West of Yogyakarta•Despite relatively low intensity, extremely shallow depth meant it was very damaging•Most casualties in the Bantul district


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Lao PDR – Fl

Floods

Historical Maximum historic flood At risk areaThorough warnings and

preparedness info, along with forecast data

Selectable by river stationsDMH website provides MRC and local

data

Lao PDR

No major disasters have hit Lao PDR in the recent past


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Malaysia

Malaysia – Fl

FloodsHistorical Maximum historic flood At risk area

Good information and warnings available on Malaysia 999 site

Selectable by regional map plate Only a few example areas available

Severe Flooding, December-January 06/07Casualties: 118Losses: US$395million•Caused by extremely heavy rainfall from the remnants of Typhoon Utor•In some areas rainfall exceeded 10% of the total annual precipitation•400,000 people displaced and evacuated


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Myanmar – Eq, Fl, Tr/Ss, Ts

Earthquakes

Probabilistic Ground shaking 475 year RP

Reports of significant seismic activity on DMH website. No information

No search functionNot linked from any Myanmar

government website

Floods

None - - -

DMH provides flood warnings. -Information links on DMH website do

not function

Tropical StormStorm Surge

None - - -

DMH provides tropical storm and storm surge warnings.

-Information links on DMH website do

not function

TsunamiNone - - -

None - None

Myanmar

Cyclone Nargis, 2nd May 2008Casualties: Estimates range from 100,000 upwardsLosses: Estimated US$4billion-10billion•Most damage and casualties caused by storm surge• No accurate loss/casualty figures available• Several million left homeless


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The Philippines – Eq, Fl, Ls, Tr/Ss, Ts, Vo

EarthquakesProbabilistic Ground shaking 475 year RP

Warnings and information on preparedness available

No search function Linked from PHIVOLCS website

Floods- - -

Warnings issued by PAGASA Selectable by province Low resolution version available from NDCC

Landslides- - -

Severe weather warnings issued by PAGASA Selectable by province Low resolution version available from NDCC


- - -

OCD and NDCC issue storm warnings Selectable by province Low resolution version available from NDCC

Tsunamis- - -

OCD relays warnings from the NOAA PTWC Selectable by province Low resolution version available from NDCC

VolcanoesProbabilistic Lahars, ash fall, pyroclastic and lava flows High/medium/low risk, areas at risk

Information on hazards and recent activity for all volcanoes

Selectable by volcano Clear links from PIVS website

The Philippines

Typhoon Durian, 30TH November 2006Casualties: 730+Losses: US$1billion+•Heavy rainfall caused huge mudslides down flanks of Mayon Volcano•Unlikely to ever determine full casualty and loss data as some areas buried under mud cannot be assessed


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Singapore

Singapore – Fl

FloodsProbabilistic Flood hazard At risk areaGood information and warnings

availableNo search function but can be viewed

by roadWell linked from PUB website but not

from SCDF

Severe Flooding, December 1978Casualties: 7Losses: US$10million•Caused by extremely heavy monsoon rainfall•Several thousand residents evacuated and disrupted


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ThailandIndian Ocean Tsunami,26th December 2004Casualties: Estimates suggest 8,000+Losses: US$1.5billion• A tsunami, up to 30m high in some places, was generated by a magnitude 9.2 earthquake off the northern tip of Indonesia•Worst hit were popular tourist regions along the Andaman Sea coastline•Accurate casualty numbers are hard to determine as many bodies washed out to seaThailand – Fl, Ts

Floods

Probabilistic Flood hazard High/Med/Low risk

DDPM hazard training academies and online resources.

MRC map selectable by river regions, Chao Phraya map is not

MRC map is easily available and well linked. Chao Phraya map may be

linked.

TsunamisHistorical Damaged area -

Tsunami warnings, preparedness info and evacuation routes

No search functionNot directly available on Thai

websites


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Vietnam

Severe flooding, October-December 1999Casualties: 650Losses: US$800million•Caused by extremely heavy rainfall from several storms•1.7million people displaced or otherwise affected•55,000 people left homeless

Vietnam – Fl, Tr/Ss

FloodsHistorical Flood height, maximum flood extent Central maps, north and south maps

CCFSC and VRC provide information in conjunction with MRC

Selectable by area Not obviously available online


None - - -CCFSC and VRC both provide

education and preparedness info-

Warnings provided on the CCFSC website


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Provision of earthquake hazard information


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Provision of flood hazard information


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Provision of landslide hazard information


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Provision of tropical storm hazard information


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Map of tsunami hazard information level


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Provision of volcano hazard information


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Background

The availability of mapped high res hazard data underpins sustained economic development

– Informed risk management decisions need to be made at all levels of society: from individuals, communities, corporations, city administrations, regional and national governments

Hazard data needs to be disseminated – in particular online

– Hazard data should be regularly updated where climate change is altering hazard levels or there is improved science

– Data also needs to be generated for indicative future hazard – to inform long term planning/infrastructure decisions

Backed by strong risk education

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Implications of the hazard information deficit

Cyclone Nargis in May 2007 highlighted the implications of a situation where hazard data is unavailable

No flood hazard maps in the Irrawaddy Delta

– People did not know they lived in a storm surge flood zone

– No evacuation plans

– No monitoring of cyclone forecasts

As a result c 100,000 died – through an ‘information deficit’

Economic and health consequences will endure for years

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oecd 2 nd international cat risks conference bangkok, sept 25 th 2009

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