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October 28th, 2020 Prepared for: UNECE

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Successful Air Delivery of Freight Packaging

Design Questions

How feasible is cargo drone delivery for an urban area like Milan?

What are the constraints and limitations?

What must the planning for cargo drones consider?

How do we plan for disruptive technologies and ensure that our networks match the expected demand?

What are the benefits we crop out of the new mobility offering on a city scale?

In the past, we studied delivery storage for the Ecopass area in Milan.

The idea was to provide each of the 7,300 shops located inside the ecopass area a loading bay within 75m and/or 80 seconds.

This represents the maximum gaps to provide all the shops with a good level of service.

Traffic Congestion in Milan is was increasing.

2019 saw a 1% increase in traffic

Source: TOMTOM International BV

Congestion Level

A 31% congestion level means that a 30-minute trip will take 31% more time than it would during Milan’s baseline uncongested conditions.

31%

+21 min +18 min

Morning Evening

Per 30 min trip

Time spent driving in rush hour

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

24:00 15% 4% 5% 7% 8% 9% 12%

7% 2% 4%

02:00

04:00

06:00 16% 15% 15% 15% 14% 2%

56% 54% 52% 53% 48% 6%

08:00 2% 74% 72% 69% 70% 62% 10%

7% 51% 51% 49% 51% 44% 17%

10:00 12% 30% 33% 32% 35% 33% 24%

15% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 26%

12:00 15% 20% 22% 24% 24% 25% 24%

9% 19% 20% 22% 22% 23% 15%

14:00 10% 24% 25% 27% 28% 29% 15%

16% 27% 29% 30% 33% 36% 20%

16:00 21% 34% 36% 37% 40% 46% 25%

26% 46% 51% 52% 55% 60% 27%

18:00 29% 54% 58% 60% 64% 63% 26%

25% 37% 41% 44% 48% 46% 26%

20:00 15% 16% 20% 23% 25% 27% 23%

10% 9% 11% 12% 13% 14% 16%

22:00 8% 10% 10% 11% 12% 13% 15%

8% 9% 10% 12% 12% 14% 17%

Weekly Traffic Congestion by time of Day.

Source: TOMTOM International BV

Roadway densities in urban areas are closely related to population density, and with the degree of urbanization.

At the city scale roadway density within Milan is 11.49% this is comparative to other EU cities.

10.62% 8.47%11.93% 10.92%14.52%

Globally, 82% of all consumers have shopped online within a three-month period.

On October 19th, 2020, Amazon announced the launch of a recruitment campaign of trucking

suppliers for deliveries in the last mile, dedicated to small trucking companies.

Currently the last-mile delivery accounts for 50% of the supply chain cost.

Source: Amazon, DHL, World Economic Forum

By 2021• A total of 2.1 billion people are

expected to buy goods online.

By 2023• E-grocery and e-commerce

are expected to account for 20% of global retail sales.

By 2030• Urban Deliveries are expected to grow

by 78%

Drone deliveries were tested during a three day trial involving 100 drone deliveries of parcels weighing up to 1.5 kilos. Delivery took place between Helsinki and

Tallin.

A Wurzburg based drone technology supplier is utilizing drones for an urban based delivery system between manufacturing plants. The drones carry a payload of 2 kilograms

The Irish post office, An Post, began testing autonomous mail drone delivery flights in 2018. Test flights were completed over water and throughout the Country.

France Estonia Finland Germany Ireland

The French post has approved drone operation for mail delivery between Siant-Maximin-La-Sainte-Beaume and Pourrieres, a 14 km route in the South of France.

The Gulf of Finland GOF-U is a project between Estonia and Finland to develop a safe and secure drone traffic management architecture.

Amazon and DHL have been testing drones for cargo delivery in rural areas.

The future delivery system is aiming to deliver packages in 30 minutes or less.

Amazon estimates, 85% of items delivered are less than 2.27 KG and could therefore be delivered by drone.

Source: Amazon, DHL, Andreas Rentz/Getty Images

• UAV can avoid Traffic Congestion• Don’t produce emissions during flights• Reduced Costs• Convenience• Geographic• Timed Delivery

Benefits Challenges

• Noise• Public Acceptance• NIMBY (Not in my Backyard)• Urban flight paths• Weather Conditions• Regulatory Framework

Can cities design infrastructure that supports parcel delivery and light goods for drones that can operate successfully within the urban

landscape?

How will cities prioritize their Airspace?

Source: Dimitri Svetsikas/Pixabay

What about in urban areas?

In Germany, there is national regulation which says drones heavier than 5 kilograms have to be approved by the federal aviation administration.

A host of issues aviation regulators and companies proposing to deliver via drone, such as Amazon, need to work out include liability, beyond line-of-sight flight and the supervision of more than one drone at a time by a single operator.

However, one of the biggest challenges facing the concept of widespread drone delivery is that of ‘the last mile’.

A lack of infrastructure and the potential for human interference are problems that need to be solved.

Assuming cargo drones would take off from the identified fulfillment locations, drone trips would be roughly 30 minutes.

A cargo drone network in an urban area would consider:

• Size and Weight of the parcel• Air Corridors and flight paths• Available Pickup times

For Illustrative Purposes Only* Source: Amazon, DHL, Retail Robotics

For cargo delivery by air to be successful, a complete functional urban parcel delivery system will need to be developed that considers multiple players and coordinated to drop-off locations.

How can we plan our cities to adapt to disruptive technologies?

The UK’s Geospatial Strategy

Average Distance 17,95 km (81.387 records) Average time 26 mins

Average Distance 16,34 km(79,727 records) Average time 27 mins

Average Distance 23,88 km(92,532 records) Average time 38 mins

Case study #1

Predicting early mobility patterns of future autonomous vehicles through observing UBER movements

City Characteristics Micro-Mobility data

Case study #2Predicting the probabilities of success/failure and potentials of personal micromobility solutions in European Cities

Scooter Bike Moped

Saint-Maur-des-Fossés

Nanterre

Clamart

Saint-Maur-des-Fossés Saint-Maur-des-Fossés

NanterreNanterre

Existing movements: 4,626*Estimated movements: 41,154

Existing movements: 14,428 Existing movements: 22,630Estimated movements: 17,717 Estimated movements: 38,806

Existing movements Existing movements Existing movementsEstimated movements Estimated movements Estimated movements

No service

Dordrecht Dordrecht

Existing movements: -Estimated movements: 8,005

Existing movements: 1,059* Existing movements: 4,183Estimated movements: 956 Estimated movements: 6,168

Existing movements Existing movementsEstimated movements Estimated movements Estimated movements

Paris

Rotterdam

Paris

Rotterdam

Paris

Rotterdam

Case study #3

Assuming the Amazon drones would take off from the identified fulfillment locations: comparative analysis of drones vs. delivery vehicles

Case study #3Isochronal Analysis:

// road network// Morning PH// 30 minutes

Covered Area172 Sq-km

Covered population991,661 residents

Case study #3Isochronal Analysis:

// Drone// Morning PH// 30 minutes

Covered Area2587 Sq-km(172 Sq-km)

Covered population4.297.457 residents(991,661 res.)

Case study #3Comparative Analysis:

Covered Area+2415 Sq-km(+1504%)

Covered population+3,305,796residents(433%)

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All mobility studies presented in this document are developed by Systematica Srl. All rights reserved. Unauthorised use is prohibited.

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