october 2016 - investmentreview.com · 2015 technology predictions report card the internet of...

1 Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation

October 2016


TMT Predictions was first published in 2001

Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.


2015 Technology Predictions report card

The Internet of Things really is things, not people

Drones: high-profile and niche

3D printing is a revolution: just not the revolution you think

Click and collect booms in Europe

Smartphone batteries: better but not breakthrough

Nanosats take off, but they don’t take over (We were too high!)

The Re-enterprization of IT

Came true, but less than

we predicted. At least so far

Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend

Came true exactly as

much as we predicted


4 Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.


2015 Media Predictions report card

Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television

The ‘generation that won’t spend’ is spending a lot in media content

Print is alive and well – at least for books



Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend





620 635 653

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2013 2014 2015


US unit sales of print books, 2013–2015 (millions)

Source: Nielsen BookScan (captures 80% of US print book sales)


2015 Telecom Predictions report card

One billion smartphone upgrades

The connectivity chasm deepens: the growing gap in broadband speeds

Contactless mobile payments (finally) gain momentum



Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend





Total prediction accuracy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


ANDREESSEN HOROWITZ

Mobile is eating the world BENEDICT EVANS


Daily time spent per media platform (minutes)


Source: David Pakman blog on Medium.com


Laptop and smartphone adoption among 18-24 year olds

Which of the following devices do you own or have ready access to?

Weighted base: Respondents aged 18-24: Australia (265), Canada (253), Finland (120), France (242), Germany (212), Italy (193), Japan (185),

Netherlands (253), Norway (130), Singapore (327), Spain (193), UK (510), US (279)

Source: Deloitte members firms’ Global Mobile Consumer Survey, developed countries, May-July 2015


Intent to purchase a laptop and smartphone within the next 12 months

among 18-24 year olds

Which of the following devices are you likely to buy in the next 12 months?

Weighted base: Respondents aged 18-24: Australia (265), Canada (253), Finland (120), France (242), Germany (212), Italy (193), Japan (185),

Netherlands (253), Norway (130), Singapore (327), Spain (193), UK (510), US (279)

Source: Deloitte members firms’ Global Mobile Consumer Survey, developed countries, May-July 2015


Source: Deloitte Digital Democracy survey, US only, 2014



It’s not either/or, it’s BOTH



0

50

100

150

200

250

Q2'10

Q3'10

Q4'10

Q1'11

Q2'11

Q3'11

Q4'11

Q1'12

Q2'12

Q3'12

Q4'12

Q1'13

Q2'13

Q3'13

Q4'13

Q1'14

Q2'14

Q3'14

Q4'14

Q1'15

Q2'15

Q3'15

Q4'15

Q1'16

Quarterly shipments Rolling 4Q total

Global tablet shipments in millions of units


Communications and marketing > It’s not always mobile

Mobile apps: Not for all Millennials

Insight Millennials (at 26%) are far more likely to use a bank’s mobile

application than Generation X (12%) or Boomers (3%). However,

when looking at the preferred way that Millennials want to

transact with their bank, the website plays a more important role.

Interestingly, 30% of Millennials with smartphones don’t use any

banking apps (from their bank, or 3rd-party banking apps). Of

those that don’t use banking apps, 45% said they prefer not to

conduct banking-related activities on their mobile device.

Opportunity One might expect a text heavy generation like Millennials to

exclusively prefer SMS or mobile app notifications for

communications, but that isn’t always the case. Often email

trumps both text and mobile app notifications as the preferred

digital means for push notifications. Banks need a

comprehensive and analytic-based communications

infrastructure to understand each consumer, and deliver the right

messages via the right channels.



Customer channel usage to research and apply for bank products (global)

Source: Capgemini World Retail Banking Report 2015 and CIBC World Markets Inc.



Daily media minutes for US 18-24 year olds, 2009-2016 in Q1


Source: Nielsen Total Audience Report

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Time spent watching video content by device, US, among 14-25 year olds

Base: Respondents aged 14-25 (424 respondents)

Source: Deloitte Digital Democracy Survey US, Ninth edition, November 2014

Of the time you spend watching movies/TV shows/sports/user-generated content,

what percentage do you watch on the following devices?



Traditional television remains resilient, even in the US US TV is approaching a plateau, not a fall; it is eroding, not imploding


US Pay TV subscribers (millions)


100.3 100.4 100.4 100.3 100.1 99.3 98.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E


Pay TV penetration (US only)



Sample Pay TV monthly rates in Brooklyn, 1992-2014



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2016

US Daily Traditional TV viewing by those 18+ in Q1


Source: Nielsen


Source: Nielsen Three Screen Report Q1 2010, Nielsen Cross Platform Reports Q1 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014,

Nielsen Total Audience Report Q1 2015, and Deloitte Global estimate for Q1 2016


-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

US TV viewing by 18-24 year olds 2010-2016

Daily live + time shifted minutes of TV Annual change - right hand axis

35 Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation ‹#› Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation 35


ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE


Widely used cognitive technologies

Graphic: Deloitte University Press | DUPress.com


Global 2016: 71%

Canada 2016: 68%

Weekly use of standard voice calling among smartphone owners (2012-2015)


Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-75

‘Data exclusive’ mobile users, by age group, developed countries, 2015


Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, 2015


0% 20% 40% 60%

Text

Phone Call - Dial Number

Email

Social Network

Phone Call - Using an App

Video call

Preferred Method of Communication on Smartphone

(Among Smartphone Owners/Users n=672) MIL GX BMR

49% 56% 49%

28% 28% 37%

6% 7% 6%

10% 5% 5%

4% 2% 2%

4% 2% 1%

Source: Ipsos Reid Custom Deloitte Study (data collected Jan 2016)

Among those who own/use a Smartphone (Mil. n=67 / Gen Xers n=330 / Boomers n=234)

Q8. What is your preferred method of communicating with your friends and family on your Smartphone? Select

one

OVERALL Milenials

(19 - 33)

Gen X

(34 - 50)

Boomers

(51 - 69)

672 67 330 234

Text 51% 49% 56% 49%

Phone Call – Dial

31% 28% 28% 37%

Email 6% 6% 7% 6%

Social Network

6% 10% 5% 5%

Phone Call – App

3% 4% 2% 2%

Video Call

2% 4% 2% 1%


$360

$1,040

2016 - $1.4T

FCM Traditional

IT spending market for data centers, software and IT services

($ billions)

$530

$970

2018 - $1.5T


TMT Predictions tailored events

Duncan Stewart can deliver a presentation

for your office/industry.

• Email Duncan: [email protected]

• Follow him on Twitter: @dunstewart

• Connect on LinkedIn

• Subscribe to him on Facebook

• Read his blog: dunstewart.wordpress.com

mailto:[email protected]

october 2016 - investmentreview.com · 2015 technology predictions report card the internet of...

Documents