october 2015 infaestructura energética s.a.b de c.v

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Burkenroad Reports are produced by a select Group of students at ITESM. This report is based on information available to the public and does not purport to be a complete statement of all data relevant to the securities mentioned and its accuracy canot be guaranteed. Furthermore, this report is not an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V. IENOVA* / BMV Initiating coverage: Pioneer with a solid position in the Mexican Energy Sector and stable cash flows Recommendation: Market Outperform Price: $78.85 MXN IPC (MEXBOL INDEX): 44,364.16 We issue a Market Outperform recommendation on IENOVA, with a 12-month target price of MXN $87 using the Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology for its operating assets, and a base case optionality for upcoming proyects. This offers a 10.3% upside from its closing price of MXN $78.85 on October 16th 2015 and a 2.5% dividend yield, giving a total expected return of 12.8% assuming the new share issuance Infraestructura Energética Nova S.A.B. de C.V. (IENOVA) is the first and only company listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange that develops and operates energy infrastructure. The Company was founded in 1996 and on March 21st 2013, conducted its IPO. IENOVA has presence in Mexico´s Northwest, Northeast, and Central regions as seen in Figure 1 and has 603 employees. A substantial amount of the long-term company’s contracts are under the take-or-pay USD denominated modality, which bind its customers to cover the whole price stated on the contract, regardless of the capacity utilization. This helps the Company assure constant and predictable cash flows in the long term, empowering IENOVA to capture new investment opportunities in the gas transportation business. In the last 12 months, IENOVA won two out of the four legal tenders in which they bid. As a result, the Company will be investing approximately US$ 400 million over the next two years. There are 6 tenders still to be completed in which the Company has shown interest, with an estimated investment of US $4,500 million to be held throughout the 4Q15 and 1Q16. The pipeline network is expected to grow 45% through 2019 according to the Plan Quinquenal SENER 2015-2019, giving the Company an opportunity to boost its EBITDA and market share. TARGET PRICE: $87 MXN Valuation 2014 2015E 2016E EPS $0.12 $0.22 $0.25 P/E 42.26 23.81 21.66 EBITDA per share 0.24 0.44 0.37 EV/EBITDA 22.31 15.36 15.95 With the Company public information and team estimations Stock Data 52-Week Range $ 68.50 92.34 Shares Outztanding (Millions) 1,154 Return LTM -0.01% Market Capitalization (MXN Millions) $90,993 Average Daily Volume (Millions) 1.14 Float (%) 19% BV per Share $1.95 Beta 0.56 Fuente: Bloomberg a excepción del estimado de flotación proporcionado por la empresa Company Overview Location: The headquarters are located in the following address: Paseo de la Reforma No. 342 Floor 24 Col. Juárez México, D.F. 06600, Tel. (55) 9138-0100 Sector: Utilities Sub Industry: Cas Utilities Employees: 603 Internet webpage: http://www.ienova.com.mx Analysts: Research Advisors: Cesar Rubalcava Ma. Concepción del Alto Hernández César Garza Alejandro Wassiliu, CFA Jessica Garza Óscar Pérez Cuauhtémoc Treviño

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Page 1: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Burkenroad Reports are produced by a select Group of students at ITESM. This report is based on information

available to the public and does not purport to be a complete statement of all data relevant to the securities

mentioned and its accuracy canot be guaranteed. Furthermore, this report is not an offer to buy or sell the

securities mentioned.

October 2015

Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V.

IENOVA* / BMV

Initiating coverage: Pioneer with a solid position in the Mexican Energy Sector and stable cash flows

Recommendation: Market Outperform

Price: $78.85 MXN IPC (MEXBOL INDEX): 44,364.16

We issue a Market Outperform recommendation on IENOVA, with a 12-month target price of

MXN $87 using the Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology for its operating assets, and a base case

optionality for upcoming proyects. This offers a 10.3% upside from its closing price of MXN $78.85 on

October 16th 2015 and a 2.5% dividend yield, giving a total expected return of 12.8% assuming the new

share issuance

Infraestructura Energética Nova S.A.B. de C.V. (IENOVA) is the first and only company listed in the

Mexican Stock Exchange that develops and operates energy infrastructure. The Company was founded in 1996

and on March 21st 2013, conducted its IPO. IENOVA has presence in Mexico´s Northwest, Northeast, and

Central regions as seen in Figure 1 and has 603 employees.

A substantial amount of the long-term company’s contracts are under the take-or-pay USD

denominated modality, which bind its customers to cover the whole price stated on the contract, regardless of

the capacity utilization. This helps the Company assure constant and predictable cash flows in the long term,

empowering IENOVA to capture new investment opportunities in the gas transportation business.

In the last 12 months, IENOVA won two out of the four legal tenders in which they bid. As a result,

the Company will be investing approximately US$ 400 million over the next two years.

There are 6 tenders still to be completed in which the Company has shown interest, with an estimated

investment of US $4,500 million to be held throughout the 4Q15 and 1Q16. The pipeline network is expected

to grow 45% through 2019 according to the Plan Quinquenal SENER 2015-2019, giving the Company an

opportunity to boost its EBITDA and market share.

TARGET PRICE: $87 MXN

Valuation 2014 2015E 2016E

EPS $0.12 $0.22 $0.25

P/E 42.26 23.81 21.66

EBITDA per share 0.24 0.44 0.37

EV/EBITDA 22.31 15.36 15.95

With the Company public information and team estimations

Stock Data

52-Week Range $ 68.50 – 92.34 Shares Outztanding (Millions) 1,154

Return LTM -0.01% Market Capitalization (MXN Millions) $90,993

Average Daily Volume (Millions) 1.14 Float (%) 19%

BV per Share $1.95 Beta 0.56

Fuente: Bloomberg a excepción del estimado de flotación proporcionado por la empresa

Company Overview

Location: The headquarters are located in the following address: Paseo de la Reforma No. 342 Floor 24 Col.

Juárez México, D.F. 06600, Tel. (55) 9138-0100

Sector: Utilities

Sub Industry: Cas Utilities

Employees: 603

Internet webpage: http://www.ienova.com.mx

Analysts: Research Advisors:

Cesar Rubalcava Ma. Concepción del Alto Hernández

César Garza Alejandro Wassiliu, CFA

Jessica Garza

Óscar Pérez

Cuauhtémoc Treviño

Page 2: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Source: Capital IQ

Adjusted EBITDA 14-19 CAGR (USD MM)

Source: Company data and Team Estimates

Investment Thesis

We issue a Market Outperform recommendation on IENOVA, with a

12-month target price of MXN $87 using the Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP)

methodology for its operating assets, and a base case optionality for

upcoming proyects. This offers a 10.3% upside from its closing price of

MXN $78.85 on October 16th 2015 and a 2.5% dividend yield, giving a

total expected return of 12.8% assuming the new share issuance.

IENOVA’s main strength is its expected increase in EBITDA (15.9%

CAGR 14-19) attributed to the start of operations of its new gas

pipelines (Sonora, Ojinaga-El Encino, and San Isidro-Samalayuca), as

well as the recently announced acquisition of the remaining 50% stake

in Gasoductos de Chihuahua (GdC), owned by Petróleos Mexicanos

(Pemex).

Pioneer with a solid position in the Mexican Energy Sector

IENOVA being the first and only company listed in the Mexican Stock

Exchange that develops and operates energy infrastructure, has

established a strong relationship with the biggest national gas

costumers: Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) and Pemex,

enabling the Company to take advantage of Mexico’s recent Energy

Reform.

Investment in long-term energetic infrastructure In the last 12 months, IENOVA won two out of the four legal tenders in

which they bid. As a result, the Company will be investing

approximately US$ 400 million over the next two years. There are 6

tenders still to be completed in which the Company has shown interest,

with an estimated investment of US $4,500 million to be held

throughout the 4Q15 and 1Q16. The pipeline network is expected to

grow 45% through 2019 according to the Plan Quinquenal SENER

2015-2019, giving the Company an opportunity to boost its EBITDA

and market share.

A constant focus on stable cash flows generating assets A substantial amount of the long-term company’s contracts are under

the take-or-pay USD denominated modality, which bind its customers to

cover the whole price stated on the contract, regardless of the capacity

utilization. This helps the Company assure constant and predictable cash

flows in the long term, empowering IENOVA to capture new

investment opportunities in the gas transportation business.

Market Profile Closing Price MX$78.85

52 Week high/low $92.34/$68.50

Average daily volume 1.14 MM

Shares Outstanding

/Float

1,154.0 MM

/ 218.1MM

Market Capitalization MX$90,992.9 MM

Dividend Yield 2.5%

LTM Basic EPS $1.94

LTM P/E

LTM EV/EBITDA

40.6x

18.8x

YTD Return 6.0%

Target Price Break Down (MXN)

Consolidated Pipelines 26.0

Gasoductos Chihuahua 25.2

Los Ramones Norte 6.3

LNG Terminal 18.2

Ecogas 3.1

TDM 1.4

ESJ 3.7

Net Debt (5.2)

Optionalities 8.1

12m Base Case Target Price $87

Future Pipelines Tenders

Target Price Scenarios (MXN)

Source: Plan Quinquenal 2015-2019

Page 3: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Figure 1. IENOVA’s Presence in Mexico

USD Millions

Business Description Infraestructura Energética Nova S.A.B. de C.V. (IENOVA) is the first

and only company listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange that develops

and operates energy infrastructure. The Company was founded in 1996

and on March 21st 2013, conducted its IPO. IENOVA has presence in

Mexico´s Northwest, Northeast, and Central regions as seen in Figure 1

and has 603 employees. It is currently involved in the following business

segments: (i) Gas transportation through pipelines (either conducted

directly or through joint ventures with Pemex); (ii) Gas Storage; (iii)

LNG terminal and regasification facility named Energía Costa Azul

(ECA), (iv) Gas distribution (Ecogas) and (v) Power generation from a

combined cycle plant fueled by natural gas (Termoeléctrica de Mexicali,

TDM), and a wind park (Energía Sierra Juárez, ESJ) that recently began

operations in August 2015. IENOVA is controlled by multinational

energy group Sempra Energy (NYSE:SRE), which currently holds 81.9%

of the company (Figure 2). The Company’s shareholder structure has not

experienced significant changes, as of October 2015. Nevertheless, a

follow-on offering of ~330 million shares is expected in the next 12M.

In 2014 the natural gas segment represented 59.6% of total revenue, out

of which natural gas sale accounted for 28.0%, regasification and storage

for 11.4%, distribution for 13.3% and transportation for 7.0%. Power

segment and other revenue (Sempra payments to ECA for coverage of

costs require to keep continuing operations) represented 27.0% and

13.4%, respectively. By 2019 the gas transportation segment is estimated

to increase its share in the Company´s consolidated revenues as seen in

Figure 3.

IENOVA’s presence in the energy utilities sector

Gas segment: the Company wholly owns 580 km of natural gas

pipelines, three compression stations, more than 3,500 km in its

distribution network, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, a

regasification facility in Ensenada, Baja California, and 888 km of

natural gas pipelines under construction. (Figure 4)

Power segment: IENOVA owns TDM, a combined-cycle plant located in

Mexicali, Baja California, with a 625-Megawatts (MW) capacity.

Joint Ventures (JV): The company holds 50% interest in a JV with

Pemex Gas (GdC), sharing ownership of four gas pipelines; a liquefied

petroleum gas (LP gas) storage terminal in Guadalajara and a 224 km

ethane pipeline (Segment 3 still remains under construction) in Veracruz

and Tabasco. The company recently agreed to acquire Pemex´s 50%

equity interest in GdC for US $1,325 million. IENOVA also holds a joint-

venture with Intergen in ESJ, a wind generation project along the Sierra

Juárez Mountains in Baja California with a capacity of 155 MW.

Figure _. Revenue by segment

Figure 2. Shareholder’s structure

Figure 3. Revenue Breakdown

Figure 4. IENOVA´s Infrastructure

Figure 1. IENOVA’s Presence in Mexico

Source: Company data

Source: Company data

Source: Company data

Source: Company data and Team Estimates

Page 4: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Corporate Governance and Social Responsibility

IENOVA complies with the standard requirements and best practices in

corporate governance stated by the Mexican Exchange Authorities.

However, the company´s CEO, Carlos Ruíz Sacristán, former member of

the Board of Directors of Sempra Energy, is also president of the Board of

Directors. We believe this may cause a concentration of power; separating

these roles provides a healthier governance structure.

In 2014 IENOVA became part of the IPC Sustentable Index, which is

comprised of 34 stocks that reflect the performance of companies

committed with issues regarding the environment and social responsibility.

The Company has invested a total amount of USD $4.6 million in

community, security, health and the environment, which encompasses the

creation of the Ensenada Trust and the Sásabe-Guaymas Trust.

Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning The recent fall in oil prices has tilted the development of Mexico’s energy

sector towards natural gas-related businesses, as the operating margins are

more attractive than those of oil-related projects. The current volatility in

the oil market does not represent a threat on IENOVA’s gas segment

revenues because of the nature of the contracts; however, the power

segment remains vulnerable to this uncertainty.

Mexican Natural Gas Distribution/ Transportation Sector In Mexico, private companies have been allowed to participate in gas

storage, transportation, and distribution since the 1995 gas legal reform.

Natural gas transportation in Mexico works through an integrated pipeline

system consisting of approximately 11,500 km. The Mexican government

has established the following short, mid and long-term strategies in order

to fulfill the internal demand:

The Plan Quinquenal SENER 2015-2019 estimates that towards 2019,

Mexico’s pipelines extension will increase approximately 5,000 km via

tender offers, following the mid-term strategy mentioned above. The

network is expected to reach at least 20,000 km in 2018 (Figure 5), which

represents a 20.2% CAGR. The shift in the country’s natural gas balance

will allow Mexico to become an exporting country, and a well-developed

pipeline network will be required to fulfill this long-term goal.

The majority of the country´s natural gas imports come from the USA

because of its geographical proximity. In 2014, there was an 18.4%

increase in the amount of natural gas imported due to a drop in production

from Pemex (exploration and extraction in Mexico still lack dynamism),

coupled with a constant growth in demand from the Mexican electric and

oil sector (Figure 6).

Plan Term Strategy

Short-term Increase LNG importing by sea and from USA

Mid-term Extend natural gas pipeline infrastructure

Long-term Augment natural gas domestic production; become a net exporter

Source: Prospectiva de Gas Natural y Gas

LP 2014-2028

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

National Production

Import

National Demand

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Oil Industrials

Power Generation Others

CAGR 2.8%

Figure 5. Mexico National Pipeline

Network

Figure 7. Natural Gas Expected

Demand Breakdown (MMcfd)

Source: Plan Nacional de Infraestructura

Figure 6. Mexico Gas Balance (MMcfd)

Source: Plan Nacional de Infraestructura; Seminario México-Argentina sobre Gas Natural:

Perspectivas de negocios en el sector energético en Nuevo León, Coahuila y Tamaulipas

Source: Prospectiva de Gas Natural y Gas

LP 2014-2028

Page 5: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Figure 8. Mexican Regasification

Market Share

According to SENER, it is expected that the natural gas demand will

continue growing in the next 14 years at a CAGR of 2.8% (Figure 7) driven

by new consumers and higher gas consumption in the power sector. In 2028

the electricity sector will be the largest consumer of natural gas, followed

by the industrial sector.

CFE is responsible for managing the energy infrastructure growth in

Mexico via tender offers.Taking advantage of this situation, IENOVA has

won two out of the four legal tenders carried out in the last 12 months.

Therefore, the Company will be investing approximately US $400 million

over the next two years, which will translate into an increase of 38.2% in

gas volume transportation. There are 6 tenders still to be completed in

which the Company has shown interest, with an estimated investment of

approximately US $4,500 million which will be held throughout the 4Q15

and 1Q16.

Mexican Gas Storage Sector

As of 2013, there were 3 national operating permits of liquefied natural gas

storage. One of these permits belongs to ECA, which has a storage capacity

of 320,000 m3 and a regasification capacity of 1,000 MMcfd. The total

storage capacity for all 3 plants is 920,000 m3. According to Prospectiva de

Gas Natural y Gas L.P. 2014-2028, there is an expansion permit for ECA

plant (additional investment of US $1,000 million) which accounts for an

added regasification capacity of 1,000-1,300 MMcfd. This extension will

increase IENOVA’s share from 50% to 67% of the Mexican regasification

capacity as seen in Figure 8.

Mexican Electricity Generation Sector

According to SENER, the energy generation demand is expected to

continue increasing for the next 14 years at a CAGR of 4.0% (Figure 9)

driven by an increasing demand in the industrial sector.

The Mexican Law of the Electric Industry, together with the Energetic

Transition Law, define the national goals in clean energy generation as a

percentage of total generated energy: 25% in 2018, 30% in 2021, and 35%

in 2024. In 2013, the capacity of clean energy generation worldwide

exceeded those of fossil fuels. Additionally, the costs of generating wind

energy have converged towards the costs of combined cycle energy

generation. This goal is in line with the 33% global average of energy

generated via renewable sources.

The Mexican government’s aim for 2024 requires capacity to generate an

additional 70 Terawatts (TW), being 47% provided by wind energy, 19%

from cogeneration, and 13% from hydroelectric plants. This presents an

opportunity for IENOVA, given that ESJ has the potential to expand up to a

capacity of 1,300 MW from the 155 MW currently installed.

Increasingly intense competition in bidding processes Even though the energy utilities industry requires high capital intensity and

entry barriers are significant, the recent tenders held for pipeline projects

have resulted to be aggressively competed. The competition that arises

when a new government tender is in place is intense. Please refer to

Porter’s 5 Forces Analysis in Figure 10.

-

100

200

300

400

Tho

usa

nd

s

Exportation Service sector

Agricultural sector Comercial sector

Residencial sector Industrial sector

CAGR 4.0%

Figure 10. Porter 5 Forces Analysis

Source: Prospectiva de Gas Natural y Gas

LP 2014-2028 Figure 9. Electricity Expected

Demand Breakdown (GWh)

Source: Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico

2014-2028

Source: Team Elaboration

Page 6: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Investment Summary We issue a Market Outperform recommendation on IENOVA, with a 12M

target price of MXN $87 using the Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology

for its operating assets and a base case optionality for upcoming proyects.

This offers a 10.3% upside from its closing price of MXN 78.85 on October

16th 2015 and a 2.5% dividend yield, giving a total expected return of

12.8% assuming the new share issuance.

Increase in EBITDA Margins

The EBITDA margin is estimated to increase from 34.2% in 2014 to 60.5%

in 2019 (Figure 11), attributed to the start of operations of new gas

pipelines (Sonora, Ojinaga-El Encino, San Isidro-Samalayuca), as well as

the recently announced acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in GdC. The

main driver is the change in the sales composition, increasing pipelines

segment revenues as percentage of consolidated revenues, being this the

most profitable business segment with an ~80.0% EBITDA Margin.

Flexibility to engage in diverse formats despite increasing competition

The country’s Energy Reform will attract new competitors in future bids

for new projects. Nonetheless, the Company is well positioned against

existing and upcoming competitors. We believe IENOVA will not lower

the internal rate of return required for the projects in which they bid, in part

because they have flexibility to participate in diverse formats (i.e.

acquisition of joint ventures, expansion projects of existing assets, etc.).

This prioritization of profitability over growth sustains the assumptions

taken in arriving to the target price.

Prudent Management and Healthy Balance Sheet

We expect the company’s current Net Debt/EBITDA of 1.7x to rise in the

short-term, and although the company does not have any formal

convenants, rating agencies have suggested a limit of 3.0x (current S&P

credit rating of mxAAA). Therefore, in order to keep up with new

investments and maintain the ratio below 3.0x, the Company will be forced

to issue equity, diluting current shareholders. We forecast that the

Company will return to current levels of Net Debt, reflecting a 30% Debt

and 70% Equity capital structure, as shown in Figure 12.

Future Pipeline Tenders in the Gas Transportation Business

In order to continue growing, IENOVA needs to be able to access new

projects tendered by CFE. Given the Company’s solid portfolio of future

projects and the country’s planned pipeline expansion, we expect a solid

increase in revenues.

Long-term opportunities in the Mexican Energy Sector

Currently IENOVA is analyzing a liquefaction project in ECA which

would allow the Company to export natural gas. Additionally, due to

growing interest in renewable energy, ESJ could have a capacity expansion

from 155 MW to 1,300 MW. Also, the new investment vehicle, Fibra E,

could lead the Company to capitalize mature projects and invest in new

ones, as long as it generates value to the shareholders. Furthermore,

IENOVA stated their interest in participating in the upcoming electricity

Figure 12. IEnova´s Capital Structure

Table 1. Possible Partners for

Electricity Segment Tenders

Figure 13. Sources of Financing

(USD MM)

Source: Company Data and Team Estimates

Source: Company Data and Team Estimates

Source: Team Assumptions

Figure 11. EBITDA Margins

Source: Company Data and Team Estimates

Page 7: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

transmission lines projects tendered by CFE together with important Latin

American players in the electricity segment (Table 1).

Future dividend payments assumed at a 4% growth

Even though there is no official dividend payout policy, Company’s

guidance indicates that they look forward to pay dividends annually, with a

growth rate between 4% and 5%. This translates into a constant ~45.0%

payout ratio (Figure 14), already taking into account the dilution that will

occur due to the follow-on in stock issuance.

Financial Analysis Increase in gas transportation volume after GdC acquisition

The acquisition of Gasoductos de Chihuahua (GdC) boosts IENOVA’s

volume, as the pipeline volume that was previously recorded as part of the

joint venture will now become 100% of the Company. This translates into

higher sales and higher EBITDA, which behave steadily throughout the

projected periods. Revenues grew 21.4% from 2013 to 2014, above the

13.1% growth that peer companies had in average for the same period. We

expect a 6.8% revenue CAGR for the period of 2014-2019. Previous

periods have recorded EBITDA margins of ~35.0%, and projected years are

expected to average 59.0% (Figure 15), mainly due to GdC acquisition and

the start of operations of new pipelines. These internal inflows will back up

future capital expenditures, and together with a flexible debt issuance

capacity, will allow for a well-rounded financial structure when bidding for

upcoming projects.

Highly liquid and solvent, with reasonable leverage metrics

IENOVA’s liquidity ratios show its capacity to maintain higher current

assets compared to their current liabilities, which keep them from falling

short in fulfilling their short-term obligations. Nevertheless, negative net

operating cycles (both for the the past and projected years) explain the

recurrent revolving credit lines IENOVA requests, intended to cover this

gap between cash received and cash spent. Net Debt/EBITDA (Figure 16)

maintains levels below 3.0x, which result in a stable capital structure of

70% equity - 30% debt, as we believe this structure is sustainable in the

long-term.

Net profit margin as the main driver for Return on Equity

DuPont Analysis (Figure 17) indicates that leverage has been an average of

1.5, and we estimate it to persist in the projected years. Total asset turnover

stays in ranges between 0.15 and 0.25, as property, plant, and equipment is

not replaced very frequently in the utilities industry. The projected net profit

margin is superior than historically, mainly due to the increase in exposure

to the gas transportation segment (new pipelines start operations and GdC

become 100% owned). The profitability of this business segment results in

higher projected ROE.

Valuation ratios at premium, but with solid foundations

We estimate IENOVA will normalize their P/E and EV/EBITDA,

diminishing the current premium at which it trades. This will be mainly

caused by the increase in earnings per share, as well as the increase in

EBITDA as a result of the acquisition of GdC and the start of operations of

Guaymas-El Oro, Ojinaga-El Encino, and San Isidro-Samalayuca pipelines.

Figure 15. EBITDA and Net Income

vs. Sales (USD MM)

Figure 16. Net Debt/ EBITDA (USD MM)

Figure 17. Du Pont Analysis

Figure 14. Dividends (USD MM)

Source: Company Data and Team Estimates

Source: Company Data and Team Estimates

Source: Company Data and Team Estimates

Source: Company Data and Team Estimates

Page 8: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Source: Team Estimates Source: Team Estimates

High margins maintained in the long-run

As mentioned throughout the report, IENOVA has most of its capacity

compromised by means of long-term, take-or-pay USD denominated

contracts. Consequently, from 2016 through 2019, net profit margins and

EBITDA margins stay at averages of 39.0% and 59.0%, respectively. The

capacity to invest in arising opportunities can be backed up with the quality

of earnings these margins show, as well as the implied company

profitability.

Valuation

DCFF and Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) Valuation

The Discounted Free Cash Flow to the Firm was the methodology used to

calculate an intrinsic value for each of the Company’s assets, which were

grouped as shown in Table 3. Due to the different nature of each business

segment, mainly in EBITDA margins (Table 2), we decided this was the

most adequate approach in order to reflect the behavior of each business

segment. SOTP methodology was done afterwards, arriving at an equity

value per share of MXN $87, adjusted by net debt and a base case

optionality for upcoming projects. Three scenarios were considered for

optionalities: Bull case, where IENOVA wins 80% of the tenders the

Company plans to bid; Base case, with a 50% of tenders awarded to

IENOVA, as seen in the last 12 months; and Bear case, where no

optionalities are granted to the Company (Table 4).

For this methodology we accounted 50% ownership for Energía Sierra

Juárez (ESJ), 25% of Los Ramones Norte and 100% of the existing assets of

the Company. We also considered full ownership of the assets of

Gasoductos de Chihuahua (GdC) and the new share issuance, as we

consider the acquisition will be completed by the end of this year.

Different assumptions were made for each of the Company’s assets. In the

gas transportation segment, for each pipeline, we forecasted the cash flows

for the life of their contracts, taking into account a terminal value (Table 5)

of the asset, calculated as the total investment adjusted by accumulated

depreciation. For Ecogas, we modeled the NPV in two phases: a detailed

year-to-year forecast of its FCFF up to 2025, and a perpetuity growth of

2.8% derived from a compound growth of the long-term gas demand in

Coahuila, Chihuahua, and Baja California, and the long-term growth of the

natural gas price, assuming the likeliness of continuing operations after that

Table 4. Target Price Scenarios

Base Case Target Price Breakdown

Table 3. Intrinsic Asset Value

Table 2. EBITDA 2016E

Table_5. Valuation Assumptions

Source: Team Estimates

Source: Team Estimates

Page 9: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

period. The value of its LNG plant was derived from three revenue streams:

(i) natural gas storage and regasification, (ii) natural gas sale and (iii) other

revenues (Sempra payments for coverage of costs required to keep

continuing operations). These revenue streams were forecasted for the

remaining life of the contract, which ends in 2028; after that period a

terminal value of the asset was considered, following the same methodology

as with pipelines. In the electricity generation segment, for Termoeléctrica de Mexicali (TDM),

we modeled a 10-year DCF and assumed a perpetuity growth of 1.8%,

derived from a compound growth of the long-term electricity demand in

California and the long-term growth of electricity prices in the USA. For

ESJ, we followed the same methodology valuation as for TDM, except that

the perpetuity growth for this asset was 2% (USA long-term inflation, as

seen in Figure 18) given the fact that the capacity generated is compromised

with San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) at a fixed price for the life of the

contract.

We considered an optionality for IENOVA’s share price of MXN $8, given

the future pipeline tenders to be held by CFE in the following years, taking

into account only the ones IENOVA is planning to participate (Table 6).

Starting from the CAPEX estimated by CFE, an internal rate of return of 9%

was used to obtain cash flow annuities for a 25 year period; then we

discounted them at the Company’s gas segment WACC of 6.0% and divided

the Net Present Value among the total shares outstanding after the issuance

to arrive to an added value per share. Keeping an operating cash of 3.0% to

total assets as shown in previous years and maintaining a 3.0x Net

Debt/EBITDA, the company could afford to bid for 82% of the total

investment amount.

Gas segment

Transportation. According to members of the Board of Directors, the

company seeks an internal rate of return (IRR) ranging between 9% - 11%,

set above its WACC.

Volume. It is fixed due to the fact IENOVA has compromised it with CFE,

Pemex and other clients, adding stability to future cash flows.

Price and EBITDA. IENOVA charges to its customers a fare lower than the

maximum established by Comisión Reguladora de Energía (CRE). The

Company’s guidance suggests a multiple of 7.0x - 8.0x CAPEX/EBITDA

and an EBITDA margin ~80.0%. From that, for the first year we solved for

the price that must be charged and then we modeled it growing in line with

US inflation.

Natural Gas Sale, storage and regasification (LNG Terminal) Volume and Price. For the natural gas sale, in order to estimate the behavior

of the volume, we based our forecasts in the expected year-to-year demand

of natural gas from CFE. Natural gas prices were estimated in line with the

expected performance of the natural gas sale index the Mexican government

publishes in Programa de Desarrollo del Sistema Eléctrico Nacional

(PRODESEN) (Figure 19).

For storage and regasification, given the fact that the fare and volume were

initially agreed since inception, we decided to maintain flat cash flows for

this segment for the remaining life of the contract. For other revenue, we

Figure 19. Natural Gas Price Index

Figure 18. US long-term Inflation

Table 6. Optionality Analysis

Source: Team Estimates

Source: PRODESEN

Source: Euromonitor

Page 10: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

obtained an average figure of what it represented as a percentage of sales in

the last three years, and maintained that proportion for the forecasted period.

EBITDA. Historical performance of these segments suggests a steady

behavior of its EBITDA margin.

Gas Distribution (Ecogas) Volume. Sales volume grows in line with the corresponding annual demand

forecast per state (Figure 20).

Price. Fares were estimated with the natural gas sale index the Mexican

government publishes in PRODESEN (Figure 19), which has proven to be

accurate, having a high historical correlation with the prices IENOVA has

transacted.

EBITDA. It behaves steadily due to a constant EBITDA margin, regardless of

the sale price that is offset by its respective cost of sales.

Electricity segment

Termoelétrica de Mexicali. IENOVA exports electricity to California in the

spot market, attributing high volatility in the earnings of this segment.

Volume. Taking a conservative approach, we considered the volume of MWh

sold in 2013 as the base year to forecast the sales in the following years. To

do this, we broke down the electricity sold in California in 2013 in the main

segments: industrial, commercial and residential (Figure 21), then we

forecasted the volume with the estimated 1.2% CAGR for the period 2012-

2024, based on the USA Energy Outlook 2015.

Price. Since plants fueled with natural gas generate two thirds of the

electricity consumed in California, we calculated a correlation of 0.6 between

historical average wholesale electricity prices in California with historical

natural gas prices (Figure 22). Next, we modeled electricity prices as if they

followed the same movement of the natural gas index adjusted by the

correlation previously mentioned. We obtained a CAGR of 2.2% for the

period 2016-2024, which is similar to the 2.0% CAGR estimated by the

California Energy Commission for the same period.

EBITDA. For the forecasted EBITDA in 2015, we estimated the margin for

this year with the YTD EBITDA margin IENOVA has reported in order to

reflect the current drop in prices. For the rest of the forecasted period, we

based our assumptions on the EBITDA margin of 2013, taking a conservative

approach, expecting a recovery of this business segment.

Energía Sierra Juárez

Volume. The Company’s guidance suggests the wind farm will be operating

at a factor between 34.0%-36.0% of the total capacity of 155 MW for the

following five years, giving an estimated annual volume sold of 475,230

MWh.

Price. IENOVA holds a fixed-price contract with San Diego Gas and

Electricity (SDG&E) for the total of MWh generated ($106.50) which grows

in line with US inflation.

EBITDA. Company’s insights suggest ~30.0% margin.

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

The cost of equity was calculated using the CAPM, with an adjustment for

country risk (Table 7). We calculated different betas for each segment in

sd

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

Residential Commercial Industrial

Figure 22. Historical performance of

electricity prices in California vs Henry

Hub index levels

Table 7. WACC Computation

Figure 20. Total Consumption in

Coahuila, Chihuahua and BC (MMcfd)

Source: Prospectiva de Gas Natural y

Gas LP 2014-2028

Figure 21. Historical California

electricity consumption by

sector. (TWh)

Source: U.S. Energy Information

Administration (EIA)

Source: U.S. EIA

Source: Team Estimates

Page 11: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

which the company operates considering the asset-weighted average unlevered

beta of 19 US Companies operating in the gas segment and 29 operating in the

power segment. The market risk premium considerd was 5.5%. The risk-free

rate of 3.0% was based on the historical average rate of the US 10-Y Bond for

the last ten years (2.5%) plus a 50 bps spread, considering an expected

increase in interest rates. The cost of debt obtained before tax is 3.3% based on

a currency interest rate swap of the average mid-term YTM of IENOVA’s 10-

Y Bond since issuance. Finally, we obtained two different WACCs: 6.0% for

the gas segment and 6.6% for the electricity segment.

Investment Risks Operational risk. | Customers’s credit risk (OR1) Five customers (Table 8)

accounted for 66% of the income of IENOVA in 2014. If one or more of these

entities presented financial struggles, they could impose a threat on

IENOVA’s revenue.

Operational risk. | Lack of human capital (OR2) Due to the high

specialization required to operate energetic infrastructure, the company might

face difficulties in finding and retaining the appropriate human capital to

operate their assets and to broaden horizons.

Operational risk. | Renewal of contracts (OR3) Approximately 80% of

IENOVA’s revenues derive from ‘take-or-pay’ terms established with

customers in which the company has compromised 100% of the capacity.

Almost half of these contracts expire by 2030 (Figure 23). When expiring, the

company might be able to obtain better fares with private customers, yet the

full capacity may not be contracted with customers, presenting difficulties to

maintain the same levels of volume sold; hence, revenues might fall.

Regulatory risk. | Permissions (RR1) Licenses, permits and regulatory

requirements established by CRE to operate certain assets are vital; failure to

comply with this would hinder the company’s operations.

Regulatory risk. | Delays on COD (RR2) Suppliers of pipelines, construction

services, rights of way, demands, among other factors may cause delays on

Commercial Operational Date, affecting the company’s budgeted capital

expenditures, diminishing its expected rate of return.

Market risk. | MXN appreciation. (MR1) Mexican peso depreciation

contributes to an increase in the operation margins of the company, while an

appreciation of the Mexican currency has the contrary effect.

Market risk. | Follow-on. (MR2) The current volatility surrounding the

Mexican market does not present an attractive moment for the company to

proceed with a follow-on offering, which could impose limitations on the

company to participate in next years in the six tenders to be carried out

representing a total of 6,075 USMM.

Market risk. | New participants. (MR3) Despite IENOVA states no interest in

projects below an IRR of 9%, the company might be forced to accept a lower

IRR in case intense competition affect the market, lowering the IRR of the

future tenders.

Market risk. | Power segment volatility. (MR4) In spite of the fact the state of

California ranks second total electricity demand, it has one of the lowest per

capital total energy consumption in the USA. California state policy promotes

energy efficiency and the state’s extensive efforts to increase energy efficiency

and the implementation of alternative technologies may restrain demand,

contributing to volatility in the spot prices of electricity.

After enlisting the Company’s risks, we believe the trade-off between

expected return and risk is adequate, meaning there is no risk that could

substantially put at stake IENOVA’s intrinsic value.

Table 8. IENOVA’s Main Customers

Figure 23. IENOVA’s contract

maturities

Source: Team Estimates

Table 9. Risk Matrix

Source: Company data

Source: Company data

Page 12: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Balance Sheet (USD thousands) 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Cash & eq 103,880 83,637 90,744 172,553 184,302 196,610 207,885

S.T. investments 207,027 30,020 34,311 52,535 57,050 61,944 62,786

Accounts receivable & other Acc. Rec 64,035 66,401 51,466 78,802 85,575 92,916 94,179

Accounts receivable to related parts 24,860 26,601 23,941 21,547 19,392 17,453 15,708

Natural gas inventory 3,836 9,375 8,578 13,134 14,262 15,486 15,697

Other assets 94,490 109,585 109,585 109,585 109,585 109,585 109,585

Current Assets 498,128 325,619 318,624 448,155 470,167 493,994 505,840

Accounts receivable to related parts 331 146,775 146,775 146,775 146,775 146,775 146,775

Investments in joint ventures 366,288 401,538 12,998 12,998 12,998 12,998 12,998

Goodwill 25,654 25,654 558,316 558,316 558,316 558,316 558,316

PPE (net) 2,213,837 2,377,739 3,691,484 3,940,879 4,182,564 4,078,318 3,971,004

Cash Surplus intended for Investing 540,501 669,009 1,159,444 1,630,738

Other assets 137,670 102,893 103,720 104,127 103,580 103,809 103,839

Noncurrent Assets 2,743,780 3,054,599 4,513,293 5,303,596 5,673,242 6,059,660 6,423,669

TOTAL ASSETS 3,241,908 3,380,218 4,831,918 5,751,750 6,143,409 6,553,654 6,929,509

S.T. Debt - 195,089 35,064 181,306 86,101 111,931 123,124

Accounts payable 49,459 59,575 42,888 65,668 71,312 77,430 78,483

Accounts payable to related parts 3,655 14,405 10,804 8,103 6,077 4,558 3,418

Other liabilities 139,975 98,481 92,557 88,113 84,781 82,281 80,407

Current Liabilities 193,089 367,550 181,312 343,190 248,271 276,200 285,432

L.T. Debt 394,656 350,638 1,813,055 861,008 1,119,311 1,231,242 1,354,366

Account payable to related parts 38,893 38,460 136,385 71,246 82,030 96,554 83,277

Other Long Term Liabilities 298,858 374,282 374,282 374,282 374,282 374,282 374,282

Noncurrent Liabilities 732,407 763,380 2,323,722 1,306,537 1,575,623 1,702,078 1,811,925

Common stock 762,949 762,949 762,949 2,349,565 2,349,565 2,349,565 2,349,565

Additional paid-in capital 973,953 973,953 973,953 973,953 973,953 973,953 973,953

Other comprehensive income - 24,273 - 64,331 - 64,331 - 64,331 - 64,331 - 64,331 - 64,331

Retained earnings 603,783 576,717 654,312 842,837 1,060,328 1,316,189 1,572,965

Equity 2,316,412 2,249,288 2,326,883 4,102,024 4,319,515 4,575,375 4,832,152

LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 3,241,908 3,380,218 4,831,918 5,751,750 6,143,409 6,553,654 6,929,509

Page 13: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Income Statement (USD thousands) 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Sales 677,836 822,796 626,171 958,759 1,041,162 1,130,482 1,145,848

COGS (328,817) (443,298) (260,484) (324,580) (346,835) (360,690) (362,045)

S&GA (99,685) (98,384) (65,121) (81,145) (86,709) (90,172) (90,511)

EBITDA 249,334 281,114 300,565 553,034 607,618 679,620 693,292

Depr/Amort (61,164) (61,943) (55,862) (89,571) (96,140) (104,246) (107,314)

Interest income 1,372 3,299 2,509 2,722 5,177 5,529 5,898

Other gains (losses) 1,951 2,401 2,115 1,901 1,740 1,620 1,529

Earnings before taxes and participation in

joint ventures 191,493 224,871 249,328 468,086 518,395 582,523 593,406

Taxes (83,792) (111,283) (74,798) (140,426) (155,518) (174,757) (178,022)

Participation in earnings from joint ventures,

net 34,689 23,346 73,626 38,247 39,092 39,952 40,924

Net income 142,390 136,934 248,155 365,908 401,968 447,718 456,308

Page 14: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Cash Flow (USD thousands) 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Net income of the year 142,390 136,934 248,155 365,908 401,968 447,718 456,308

Adjusments for:

Income tax expense 83,792 111,283 74,798 140,426 155,518 174,757 178,022

Participation in joint venture earnings, net (34,689) (23,346) (73,626) (38,247) (39,092) (39,952) (40,924)

Non Cash Transactions (7,634) 9,276 101,529 (68,686) 27,897 24,172 45,532

(Gain) loss subsidiary participation transactions - (18,824) - - - -

Depreciation and amortization 61,164 61,943 55,862 89,571 96,140 104,246 107,314

Movements in working capital: - - - - - - -

(Increase) decrease in Acc. Rec. and other Accounts

Receivable 19,066 (4,020) 17,595 24,942 4,618 5,402 (482)

(Increase) decrease in inventories 5,437 (5,539) 797 (13,134) (14,262) (15,486) (7,119)

Decrease (increase) in other assets (54,057) 14,308 (827) (406) 547 (229) (30)

Increase (decrease) in Acc. Payable and other Accounts

Payable 18,241 49,393 (16,687) 22,780 5,644 6,118 1,052

(Decrease) increase in provisions (28,512) (19,873) - - - - -

Increase (decrease) in other liabilities 32,219 17,895 (5,925) (4,443) (3,333) (2,499) (1,875)

Cash generated from operations 237,417 329,430 401,672 518,709 635,645 704,246 737,799

Income tax paid (74,657) (166,213) (111,283) (74,798) (140,426) (155,518) (174,757)

Net cash generated from operations 162,760 163,217 290,389 443,911 495,219 548,727 563,042

Net cash for sale of participation in subsidiary - 24,411 - - - - -

Effects of the combination of Sempra Gasoductos Mexico - - - - - - -

Interests received -

4 - - - - -

PPE Acquisitions (369,672) (325,484) (1,369,607) (338,966) (337,825) - -

Cash Surplus intended for Investing (540,501) (128,508) (490,435) (471,294)

Loans to non-consolidable related parts net. (100) (143,902) - - - - -

S.T. Investments (207,027) 177,007 4,291 (18,224) (4,515) (4,894) (842)

Change in Goodwill - - (532,662) - - - -

Disinvestment in JVs 388,540

Net cash (used) in investment activities (576,799) (292,375) (1,897,978) (509,151) (470,849) (495,329) (472,136)

Cash flow from financing

Interests paid (11,557) (18,872) - - - - -

Financing from related parts net (375,659) (437) 94,324 (67,840) 8,759 13,004 (14,417)

Issue of ordinary stocks through IPO 598,812 - - 1,586,616 - - -

Costs of stock issue (24,627) - - - - - -

Cash flows received by bank loans and bank financing - 278,432 1,302,392 (805,805) 163,098 137,761 134,317

Cash flows for L.T. debt issue 408,278 - - - - - -

Costs of L.T. debt issue (3,003) (11,184) - - - - -

Dividends paid (156,000) (164,000) (170,560) (177,382) (184,478) (191,857) (199,531)

Net cash generated by Financing acts. 436,244 83,939 1,226,156 535,588 (12,621) (41,091) (79,630)

(Decrease) increase in cash and cash eqs. 22,205 (20,371) 7,107 622,309 140,258 502,742 482,570

Cash and cash eqs. At beginning of the year 85,073 103,880 83,637 90,744 713,053 853,312 1,356,053

Effects for change in the value of cash held in foreign

currency (3,398) 565 - - - - -

Cash and cash eqs. At end of year 103,880 84,074 90,744 713,053 853,312 1,356,053 1,838,623

Page 15: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Balance Sheet as % of Total Assets 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Cash & eq 3.2% 2.5% 1.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

S.T. investments 6.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

Accounts receivable & other Acc. Rec 2.0% 2.0% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

Accounts receivable to related parts 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Natural gas inventory 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Other assets 2.9% 3.2% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6%

Current Assets 15.4% 9.6% 6.6% 7.8% 7.7% 7.5% 7.3%

Accounts receivable to related parts 0.0% 4.3% 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

Investments in joint ventures 11.3% 11.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Goodwill 0.8% 0.8% 11.6% 9.7% 9.1% 8.5% 8.1%

PPE (net) 68.3% 70.3% 76.4% 68.5% 68.1% 62.2% 57.3%

Cash Surplus intended for Investing 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 10.9% 17.7% 23.5%

Other assets 4.2% 3.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5%

Noncurrent Assets 84.6% 90.4% 93.4% 92.2% 92.3% 92.5% 92.7%

TOTAL ASSETS 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

S.T. Debt 0.0% 5.8% 0.7% 3.2% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8%

Accounts payable 1.5% 1.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1%

Accounts payable to related parts 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Other liabilities 4.3% 2.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2%

Current Liabilities 6.0% 10.9% 3.8% 6.0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1%

L.T. Debt 12.2% 10.4% 37.5% 15.0% 18.2% 18.8% 19.5%

Account payable to related parts 1.2% 1.1% 2.8% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.2%

Noncurrent Liabilities 22.6% 22.6% 48.1% 22.7% 25.6% 26.0% 26.1%

Common stock 23.5% 22.6% 15.8% 40.8% 38.2% 35.9% 33.9%

Additional paid-in capital 30.0% 28.8% 20.2% 16.9% 15.9% 14.9% 14.1%

Other comprehensive income -0.7% -1.9% -1.3% -1.1% -1.0% -1.0% -0.9%

Retained earnings 18.6% 17.1% 13.5% 14.7% 17.3% 20.1% 22.7%

Equity 71.5% 66.5% 48.2% 71.3% 70.3% 69.8% 69.7%

LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Page 16: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Valuation Ratios 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Price of share 52.17 73.80 83.97 87.58 87.74 86.43 84.95

FX Rate 13.08 14.72 16.40 16.40 16.40 16.40 16.40

P/Share

EBITDA p/share* 0.22 0.24 0.44 0.37 0.41 0.46 0.47

Cash Flow p/share 0.14 0.14 0.25 0.30 0.33 0.37 0.38

Sales p/share 0.60 0.71 0.54 0.65 0.70 0.76 0.77

Book Value p/share 2.06 1.95 2.02 2.76 2.91 3.08 3.26

Earnings p/share 0.13 0.12 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.30 0.31

Dividends p/share 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13

Dividend Payout Ratio 109.6% 119.8% 68.7% 48.5% 45.9% 42.9% 43.7%

Retention Rate -9.6% -19.8% 31.3% 51.5% 54.1% 57.1% 56.3%

Margins

Net Profin Margin 21.01% 16.64% 39.63% 38.16% 38.61% 39.60% 39.82%

EBITDA Margin* 36.78% 34.17% 57.64% 57.68% 58.36% 60.12% 60.50%

CFO Margin 24.01% 19.84% 46.38% 46.30% 47.56% 48.54% 49.14%

Management Efectiveness

Return on Assets 4.39% 4.14% 6.04% 6.91% 6.76% 7.05% 6.77%

Return on Equity 6.15% 6.00% 10.85% 11.38% 9.55% 10.07% 9.70%

DuPont

Net Profin Margin 21.01% 16.64% 39.63% 38.16% 38.61% 39.60% 39.82%

Total Asset Turnover 0.21 0.25 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17

ROA 4.39% 4.14% 6.04% 6.91% 6.76% 7.05% 6.77%

Leverage 1.40 1.45 1.79 1.65 1.41 1.43 1.43

ROE 6.15% 6.00% 10.85% 11.38% 9.55% 10.07% 9.70%

Sustainable Growth -0.59% -1.19% 3.39% 5.86% 5.17% 5.75% 5.46%

Income Statement As % of Sales 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Income Statement

Sales 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

COGS (48.5%) (53.9%) (41.6%) (33.9%) (33.3%) (31.9%) (31.6%)

S&GA (14.7%) (12.0%) (10.4%) (8.5%) (8.3%) (8.0%) (7.9%)

EBITDA 36.8% 34.2% 48.0% 57.7% 58.4% 60.1% 60.5%

Depr/Amort (9.0%) (7.5%) (8.9%) (9.3%) (9.2%) (9.2%) (9.4%)

Interest income 0.20% 0.40% 0.40% 0.28% 0.50% 0.49% 0.51%

Other gains (losses) 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Earnings before taxes and participation in joint

ventures 28.3% 27.3% 39.8% 48.8% 49.8% 51.5% 51.8%

Taxes (12.4%) (13.5%) (11.9%) (14.6%) (14.9%) (15.5%) (15.5%)

Participation in earnings from joint ventures, net 5.1% 2.8% 11.8% 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 3.6%

Net income 21.0% 16.6% 39.6% 38.2% 38.6% 39.6% 39.8%

Page 17: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

Activity Ratios

Inventory Turnover 111.71 82.00 37.96 37.37 31.65 30.31 29.03

Receivables Turnover 6.52 4.59 2.64 3.85 3.94 4.20 4.22

Payables Turnover 3.63 4.28 1.33 1.91 2.27 2.13 2.11

Days Inventory Turnover 3.22 4.39 9.48 9.63 11.37 11.88 12.40

Days Receivables Turnover 55.20 78.39 136.14 93.60 91.30 85.68 85.31

Days Payables Turnover 99.09 84.07 271.64 188.48 158.51 169.23 170.99

Net Operating Cycle -40.68 -1.29 -126.01 -85.25 -55.84 -71.67 -73.28

Working Capital Turnover 2.22 6.25 4.56 2.45 1.36 1.00 0.71

Fixed Asset Turnover 0.25 0.28 0.14 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.18

Total Asset Turnover 0.21 0.25 0.13 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17

Liquidity Ratios

Current Ratio 2.58 0.89 1.76 2.88 4.59 5.99 7.49

Quick Ratio 2.56 0.86 1.71 2.84 4.53 5.93 7.43

Cash Ratio 1.61 0.31 0.69 2.23 3.67 5.13 6.66

Solvency Ratios

Debt-Assets 0.29 0.33 0.52 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30

Debt-Capital 0.29 0.33 0.52 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30

Debt-Equity 0.40 0.50 1.08 0.40 0.42 0.43 0.43

Leverage

Net debt/EBITDA 0.51 1.73 3.69 1.62 1.73 1.74 1.87 Net debt/Equity 0.05 0.22 0.80 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.27

CAPEX/Depreciation 6.04 5.25 24.52 2.25 2.18 4.70 4.39

CAPEX/CFO 2.27 1.99 4.72 0.45 0.42 0.89 0.84

Valuation ratios

P/E 31.47 42.26 23.81 21.66 19.75 17.47 16.85 P/BV 1.93 2.57 2.54 1.93 1.84 1.71 1.59

EV/EBITDA 18.48 22.31 15.36 15.95 14.80 13.25 12.95

EV/Sales 6.80 7.62 8.86 9.20 8.64 7.97 7.84

Page 18: October 2015 Infaestructura Energética S.A.B de C.V

The Latin America Burkenroad Reports from ITESM are financial analysis of companies listed in the

Mexican Stock Exchange, and capital budgeting of medium and small companies. They are elaborated by

students of both the Master in Finance program of EGADE Business School, and the Bachelor in Finance and

Accounting; under the supervition of recognized professors.

The Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM), Instituto de Estudios Superiores

de Administración de Venezuela (IESA), and Universidad de los Andes from Colombia, along with Tulane

University, started the Latin America Burkenroad Program with the support of Multilateral Investment Fund

of the Interamerican Development Bank in 2001. Actually it has been expanded to other countries, to

Guatemala by the Escuela Superior Politécnica Litoral, to Perú by the Universidad Catolica de Perú, to

Colombia by the EAFIT, ICESI, and the Universidad Del Norte, as well as Argentina by the Universidad de

Belgrano, and soon to Brazil and Chile.

This program enriches human capital by providing training in financial analysis and valuation techniques, and

also intends to facilitate access of companies to financing sources by providing financial information to

investors and financial institutions.

The reports prepared by this program, evaluate financial conditions and investment opportunities in Latin

American companies. Financial reports of listed companies are distributed to national and foreign investors

through publications and financial information systems such as Reuters, Infosel Financiero and Finsat, among

others. Investment capital budgeting reports are distributed only to beneficiary companies for future private

presentations to financial institutions or potential investors.

Investment plans and financial situation of the analyzed companies are presented to the financial community

in an Annual Meeting.

For more information about the Burkenroad Latin America Program please visit the following websites:

http://burkenroad.wix.com/pagina-hpstr www.latinburkenroad.com

María Concepción del Alto Ph.D.

[email protected]

Research Director

Burkenroad Reports, Mexico

Departamento Académico de Contabilidad y Finanzas

EGADE Business School

Tel +52 (81) 86256000 ext. 6050