ocp policy center seminar series lesser... · tns opinion was commissioned to conduct the survey in...

OCP Policy Center Seminar series

Transatlantic trends

Ian Lesser

12 September 2014

Transatlantic Trends 2014

Key Findings

2www.transatlantictrends.org


Methodology

This is the thirteenth annual Transatlantic Trends survey of public opinion in the United States

and Europe. TNS Opinion was commissioned to conduct the survey in 13 countries: the U.S.,

Turkey, Russia, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden,

Spain, and the United Kingdom. The surveys were conducted as Computer Assisted Telephone

Interviews in all countries except Poland, Russia, and Turkey, where lower telephone

penetration necessitated the use of face-to-face interviews.

In all countries, a random sample of approximately 1,000 men and women (Russia: 1,500), 18

years of age and older, were interviewed. Interviews were conducted between June 2 and

June 26, 2014.

For results based on the national samples in each of the 13 countries surveyed, one can say

with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other

random effects is +/ - 3%.

www.transatlantictrends.org 3



Overview

1: The Transatlantic Relationship

2: The Economy, the EU, and Immigration

3: Foreign & Security Policy Cooperation

4: Russia



76 7368

72 72 6963

57

70

37 36 36

55 56 54 52 55 56

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Perc

ent

Majorities Support Burden Sharing in Leadership

U.S. desire for EU Leadership EU desire for U.S. leadership

Q1a-b: How desirable is it that the United States/European Union exert strong leadership in world affairs? Very desirable, somewhat desirable, somewhat undesirable, or very undesirable?



81

67

31

57

65

45

2025

20

34 35

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

In the United States In the EU In Turkey

Perc

ent

Partners Seen Favorably, Except in Turkey

U.S.

EU

Russia

China

Q4.1-4: Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of the UnitedStates/the European Union/Russia/China?



83

5750

8892 91 90

55

90

75

85 82

69

50

26

35

73 76 76 77

60

75

63 576364

43

7

34

69

56

33

74 74 68 6864

5563

0

20

40

60

80

100

Perc

ent

Obama's Approval Drops, Dramatically in Germany

2009 2013 2014

Q 2.1*Sweden data from 2011, Russia data from 2012



8374 68

6052 52 51 51 47 47 44

35 33 28

1219 25

33 42 38 43 42 52 47 47 58 62 66

0

20

40

60

80

100

Perc

ent

Views on Foreign Policy Performance

Disapprove

Approve

Q3.1: Do you approve or disapprove of how [COUNTRY]'s government is handling international policies?


69

58 58 5755

51 5047

42

35 34 33

22

9

812

2420

1421

32 3536

3227 36

18 32 28 1919

33 26 2019 26

18

34 37

0

20

40

60

80

100

Perc

ent

Becomecloser

Remain thesame

Moreindependentapproach

2013

Support for Independent Approach to Transatlantic Relationship

Q5: Do you think that the partnership in security and diplomatic affairs between the United States and the European Union should become closer, should remain about the same, or should the [IN EUROPE: European Union / IN THE US: United States] take a more independent approach from the [IN EUROPE: United States / IN US: European Union]?

4952

40

5450

4245

42

3440

33

26




Overview




4: Russia



47

64

7874

60

42

6255

46

58

20

56

31

9591

8176 73 72

64 6257

52 50 47

3022

0

20

40

60

80

100

Perc

ent

Widespread Effect of Economic Crisis, Especially in Southern Europe

2009 2014

Q18: Regarding the extent to which you or your family has been personally affect by the current economic crisis, would you say that your family's financial situation has been greatly affected, somewhat affected, not really affected, or not affected at all?* Sweden data from 2011, Russian data from 2012


76 7371

6563 63 61 56 55

53 53 51

21

13

24 2826 26

33 36 36

29

4240

0

20

40

60

80

100

Perc

ent

Majorities See EU Membership as Beneficial

Bad

Good

2013

Q 22: Generally speaking, do you think that [COUNTRY]'s membership in the European Union [EU COUNTRIES: has been]/[TURKEY: would be] a good thing or a bad thing for [COUNTRY]?

7166

58 5760

48 4952

4945

40




31

2719

16

511

EU is a community ofdemocracies

Free movement

Maintained peace

Strengthened Europeaneconomies

More than one option

None of the above

Don't Know

Q23a: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a good thing?* Asked of the 65% of Europeans who said EU membership has been a good thing for their country

EU Membership Good because of Democracy, Free Movement



45

23

13

11

52 2

...But Bad Because of its Effect on National Economies

Harmed our country’s economy

Too much authority

Undermined our culture

Is undemocratic


None of the above

Don't Know

Q23b: What is the most important reason EU membership has been a bad thing?* Asked of the 28% of Europeans who said EU membership has been a bad thing for their country



57 56 55 55 52 52 51 50 50 45 42

3526 31 23 36 30 38 41 37 40 52

0

20

40

60

80

100

Perc

ent UK should

leave the EU

EU shouldaccommodateconcerns of UK

Q25: As you may know, the UK has raised concerns about the terms of its membership in the European Union, and there has been some discussion of the UK leaving the European Union. Do you think the other EU Member States should do more to accommodate the concerns of the UK, or would it be better if the UK leaves the EU?

Most Prefer to Accommodate UK's Concerns, Except French



77 75 73 71 67 64 64 60 57 51 4838 36

26

20 22 25 23 27 33 34 36 40 4644 60

50 67

0

20

40

60

80

100

Perc

ent

Dissatisfaction with Government's Handling of Immigration

Approve

Disapprove

Q3.3: Do you approve or disapprove of how [COUNTRY]'s government is handling immigration from other countries?



40

26

18

54

4 3

What Do We Think Motivates Immigrants?Work Seek social benefits Seek asylum United with family members Study None of the above Don't know

EU

Q26a: In your opinion, what do you think is the most common reason for immigrants (from other countries) to come to [COUNTRY]?

46

29

7

7

62 3

U.S.

52

16

22

42 2 2

Russia

13

17

60

4 32

Turkey

1



Overview




4: Russia



5662 60 61 60

59

62 6062

56 55

58

69

5755 55

60

59

58 58 61

53 52

44

3538

3530

37 38 39

49

0

20

40

60

80

100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Perc

entNATO Still Essential

U.S. EU Turkey

Q10: Some people say that NATO is still essential to our country's security. Others say it is no longer essential. Which of these views is closer to your own? [if respondent asks: 'NATO is the Alliance among the USA, Canada, and many European states']



59

73

57

49

43 41

53

4338

55

4136

5357

43

0

20

40

60

80

�U.S. �EU �Turkey

Perc

ent

Traditional NATO Missions Favored

Territorial defense ofEurope

Military operations outsideof U.S. and Europe

Providing arms or training

Providing arms or trainingto countries like Ukraine

Stability in places likeAfghanistan

Q11.1-5: Should NATO be engaged in the following missions? 1. Territorial defense of Europe 2. Military operations outside of U.S. and Europe 3. Providing arms or training 4. Providing arms or training to countries like Ukraine 5. Stability in places like Afghanistan



58

68

78

6461

77

43

25

52

68

46

63

52

69

0

20

40

60

80

100

�U.S. �EU �Poland

Perc

ent

Measures to Support Ukraine

Economic aid toUkraine

Sanctionsagainst Russia

Provide militarysupplies andequipment toUkraineOffer NATOmembership toUkraine

Offer EUmembership toUkraine

Q16b.1-5: There have been a number of proposals for how (the EU/USA) should react to Russian actions in Ukraine. For each of the following, please tell me if you agree or disagree with the proposed action. 1. Offer NATO membership to Ukraine 2. Offer EU membership to Ukraine 3. Increase economic assistance to Ukraine 4. Send military supplies and equipment to Ukraine 5. Impose stronger economic sanctions on Russia



73 67 65 64 59 58 58 57 53 52 48 44 42

0

20

40

60

80

100

Perc

ent

Q16a: Should the European Union (in US: the United States) continue to provide economic and political support to Ukraine, even if there is a risk of increasing conflict with Russia?

Most Willing to Risk Conflict with Russia to Support Ukraine



32

21

14

96 6

32

11

17

6

12

4

17

23

118

4

11

20

13 1310

6

12

0

20

40

Imposeeconomicsanctions

Offer economicincentives

Use computertechnology to

sabotagenuclear

installations

Provide supportto opponents ofthe government

Take militaryaction

Accept that Irancould acquire

nuclearweapons

Perc

ent

Pluralities in EU, U.S. Support Sanctions Against Iran

EU U.S. Russia Turkey

Q14: As you may know, efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons are under way. Which of the following do you think is the best option?



Overview




4: Russia



30 29

36

2830

22

1513

19

2 3 2

0

20

40

Stability in Syria Negotiations withIran over nuclear

program

Europe's easternneighborhood

Perc

ent

Russians Prefer to Work Alone in Eastern Neighborhood

Russia shouldwork alone

Both the EUand the U.S.

The EU

The U.S.

Q9.1-3: On the following issues, do you think it would be better for Russia to work together with the EU, the US, both or should Russia work alone? 1. Stability in Syria 2. Negotiations with Iran regarding its nuclear program 3. The future of Europe's eastern neighborhood



36

29

14

10

22

7

Russia Prefers Emerging Powers as Partners

Emerging powers such asIndia and China

CIS states

Countries of the EuropeanUnionRussia should act alone

The United States


Don't know

Q8: On international matters, with which one of the following do you think Russia should cooperate most closely?



6562 62

5956

53 5249

4541 41

26 25

7

49 47

56

40

48 48 46

56

2733 35

39

0

20

40

60

80

Perc

ent

Limited Approval for Handling of Russia Policy

President Obama Own government

Q2.2, 3.2: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the President of the United States Barack Obama/[COUNTRY]’s government is managing relations with Russia?



Key Findings

• Europeans support a more independent transatlantic relationship, U.S. looks for more burden sharing

• Opinion of U.S. leadership drops dramatically in Germany

• Effects of the economic crisis are still felt keenly, especially in Southern Europe -- and the U.S.

• Majorities in the U.S. and EU favor traditional NATO missions

• Majorities support sanctions against Russia and are willing to risk increasing conflict to support Ukraine

• Russians view the U.S. and EU unfavorably, but see opportunity to work with emerging powers



For more information about methodology, specific countries, and the full top-line dataset please visit:

www.transatlantictrends.org

www.twitter.com/gmfuswww.facebook.com/gmfus

ocp policy center seminar series lesser... · tns opinion was commissioned to conduct the survey in...

Documents