Oceans of opportunityHarnessing Europe’s largest domestic energy resource

Justin Wilkes

Policy Director

European Wind Energy Association

Renewable Energy and the Sea – Technological Innovation

• The offshore wind power market

• Building the European offshore grid

• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures

Outline

• The offshore wind power market

• Building the European offshore grid

• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures

Outline

Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)

Source: European Environment Agency

Offshore wind can power Europe seven times over

EU energy demand- 3,537 TWh by 2020- 4,279 TWh by 2030

Technical potential of offshore wind- 25,000 TWh by 2020- 30,000 TWh by 2030

2009 installations

2009 offshore wind market figures EU+Norway

• 201 turbines intstalled in 2009• 584 MW • Increase of 56% compared to 2008

Cumulative analysis

Cumulative analysis EU and Norway

By end 2009:

• 830 wind turbines installed & grid connected;• totalling 2,063 MW;• across 39 wind farms; • in 9 European countries.

Cumulative analysis

Outlook

2010 Expectations • 1000 MW to be installed• 71% market growth

• Over 100 GW in pipeline, of which:– 60 GW in government

concession/development zones– 52 wind farms fully consented, totalling

17,600 MW– 16 wind farms under construction totalling

3,500 MW

Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)Offshore wind energy market in the EU 2011 – 2020 (MW)

Source: EWEA 2009

• 2011: annual installations of 1.5 GW

• 2020: annual installations of 6.9 GW

• 2020: cumulative installations of 40 GW

Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)

Offshore wind energy market in the EU 2021 – 2030 (MW)

• 2021: annual installations of 7.7 GW

• 2030: annual installtions of 13.6 GW

• 2030: cumulative installations of 150 GW

Source: EWEA 2009

Project pipeline: Spain & Portugal

Source: EWEA 2009

• Online: 0 MW• Current pipeline:

• Spain: 6,708 MW• Portugal: 301

MW

Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)Offshore development – deeper and further

Development of the offshore wind industry in terms of water depth (m) and distance to shore (km) in the 2025 timeframe

Source: EWEA 2009

• The offshore wind power market

• Building the European offshore grid

• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures

Outline

Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)

EWEA’s 20 year offshore network development plan

• Based on:- Existing TSO plans- TradeWind scenarios

• Added value of plan:

- Provides step by step timetable for grid development

- Suggested capacities- Integrated with development/concession

zones

Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)

EWEA’s 20 year offshore network development plan

Source: EWEA 2009

• The offshore wind power market

• Building the European offshore grid

• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures

Outline

Technology & Supply chain – main questions

• 10,000 turbines: Which type? Who manufactures them?

• 10,000 substructures: Which technology? • 10,000 systems: Which boats?• 10,000 heavy elements to store: Which

harbours?

• The offshore wind power market

• Building the European offshore grid

• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures

Outline

Wind Turbines: 3 Benchmarks

3+ MW (2004)

- GE (3.6 MW)- Siemens (3.6

MW)- Vestas- WinWind5 MW (2007) - Repower- BARD- Areva

Multibrid

2+ MW (2000) - Siemens- Vestas- Nordex

(test)

Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)

turbine innovation trends

Main driver for innovation is global economic efficiency, not only generator size Drivers:• Existing designs: Improving turbine reliability, accessibility, efficiency• Upscaling: Economies of scale are foreseen with larger machines, but installation? Transportation?• New concepts: Innovative concepts variable speed / direct drive are in demo phase, and dedicated offshore designs emerge

Wind turbines: outlook

Upscaling- Siemens - 6 MW- GE - 4 MW- Repower - 6 MW- BARD – 6.5 MW- Vestas – 6 MW

Future entrants- Clipper - 7.5 MW/10

MW- Mitsubishi - 6 MW- Acciona - 3 MW- Gamesa - 4.5 MW- Sinovel – 3 MW- Doosan - 3 MW- STX (Harakosan) - 2

MW- XEMC Darwind – 5

MW

• The offshore wind power market

• Building the European offshore grid

• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures

Outline

Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)

Supply chain – substructures (present)

Current market players

Source: MAKE Consulting 2009, own elaboration

• Substructures represent significant proportion of costs

• No standard design

• Manufacturing industry developed by oil and gas industry – manufacturing capacity has to improve

• Integrated approach: supply of substructures, transport and installation

• New designs and/or improved manufacturing processes crucial for improved economics

Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)

Supply chain – substructures (future)

Source: Carbon Trust

Offshore wind trends

The backbone of Europe’s energy future, Grids 2010, 23 - 24 November 2010

Make the right connections, EWEA 2011, 14 - 17 March 2011

Move ahead of the energy curve, Offshore 2011, 29 November - 1 December 2011

Thank you very much for your attention

www.ewea.org/offshore

RENEWABLE ENERGY HOUSE63-65 RUE D’ARLONB-1040 BRUSSELS

T: +32 2 546 1940F: +32 2 546 1944E: ewea@ewea.org