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OCEAN & CLIMATE

CHANGE

Prof. Dr. Jamaluddin Jompa, MSc.

COREMAP II

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Introduction

Climate change

Roles of the ocean on climate change

precipitation

stabilize the air

Climate change impacts to ocean

acidification

coral bleaching stratification (ocean plant life)

extreme climate events

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The climate systemClimate is an aggregate of weather

Involves the exchanges of energy andmoisture that occur among the

Atmosphere

Hydrosphere

Solid Earth

Biosphere, and Cryosphere (ice and snow)

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The climate system

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World climates

Every location has a distinctive climate

The most important elements in a climaticdescription are

Temperature, and

Precipitation

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Greenhouse effect

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Human impact on global climate

Rise temperature globally (global warming)

Water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) absorbheat and are largely responsible for the

greenhouse effect of the atmosphere Burning fossil fuels has added great quantities

of CO2 to the atmosphere

CO2 is currently responsible for over 60% of

the enhanced greenhouse effect Current annual emissions amount to over 23

billion metric tons of CO2 or almost 1% of thetotal mass of CO2 in the atmosphere

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Continues

The atmosphere response

Global temperatures have increased Balance of evidence suggests a human influence

on global climate

Globally averaged surface temperature haverisen by about 0.6C over the 20th Century, andprojected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8C by the year2100

The role of trace gases Atmospheric trace gases

Methane

Nitrous oxide

Certain chlorofluorocarbons

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Average global temperature

variations 18602006

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Temperature trends to 2100

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Climate-feedback mechanisms

The atmospheres response

The role of trace gases

Absorb wavelengths of outgoing Earth radiation

Taken together, their warming effects may benearly as great as carbon dioxide

Two types

Positive-feedback mechanisms reinforce the

initial change

Negative-feedback mechanisms produceresults that are just the opposite of the initialchange and tend to offset it

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Some consequences of

climate changeMelting of glaciers, Greenland and Antarctic

ice sheets

Rise in global mean sea level

Altered distribution of the worlds waterresources and the effect on the productivity ofagricultural regions

Changing weather patterns Higher frequency and intensity of hurricanes

Shifts in the paths of large-scale cyclonic storms

Changes in frequency and intensity of heat waves

and droughts

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Melting the ice sheets

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Impacts of Climate Change on

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Some consequences of

climate change

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Mean sea level rise

Sea levels could rise by 9-88 cm by 2100(IPCC), causing widespread flooding of low-lying costal areas and islands

A one-meter rise would displace 70 millionpeople in Bangladesh, and other millionpeople in China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam,and Indonesia.

Totally 563 million people in Southeast Asia(8.5% of the world population) areconcentrated along coastlines measuring

173,251 kilometers

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Sea level rise

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Coastal in cities threatening by

sea level rise

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Sea level rise will submerged:

80% of the Marshall Islands, threaten the Gulfand South Atlantic coasts of the US, coastalzone on Tokyo, Osaka, Mumbai (India),

Shanghai (China), Jakarta (Indonesia) About 2,000 islands in Indonesia

Small islands developing states (SIDS)

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Indonesian consequences A study showed that with a sea level rise of

0.25, 0.57, and 1.00 cm per year, the totalarea of north Jakarta that will be affected by

inundation in the year 2050 would be about40, 45, and 90 sq km, respectively (PusatPengembangan Kawasan Pesisir dan Laut, ITB 2007)

A similar study also indicated that when the

mean sea level increases by about 0.5 m andland subsidence continues, parts of six sub-districts of North Jakarta and Bekasi will bepermanently inundated (Dasanto and Istanto, 2007)

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Continues

With a sea level rise of about 1 meter, it wasestimated that about 405,000 ha of coastalland including small islands will be inundated

The impact may be severe in certain coastalareas such as the north coast of Java, theeast coast of Sumatra, and the south coast ofSulawesi (Subandono, 2002)

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Sea level rise process

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Sea level rise map

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Ocean & coastal factsheets

Cover 70% of the surface of the Earth;

Have 1,100 times the heat capacity of theatmosphere (99.9% of the heat capacity of

the Earth's fluids); Contain 90,000 times as much water as the

atmosphere (97% of the free water on theplanet); and

Receive 78% of global precipitation.

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Continues More than one third of the worlds population

live in coastal areas and small islands thatmake up just over 4% of Earths total land

area. Fisheries and fish products provide direct

employment to 38 million people

The population living within 100 km of thecoast reached about 452 million people,equivalent to about 79% of the totalpopulation. Most of these people depend on

coastal & marine (2005)

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Continues Coastal aquaculture has been the most

important fishery activity in Southeast Asiawith more than 30,000 households, in more

than 64,000 ha, earning their livelihood fromshrimp farming.

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Carbon cycle

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Carbon cycle

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The roles of the ocean on climate

change

Ocean currents greatly affect the temperatureand precipitation of a climate

Those climates bordering cold currents tendto be drier as the cold ocean water helpsstabilize the air and inhibit cloud formationand precipitation

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Continues

Air travelling over cold ocean currents loseenergy to the water and thus moderate thetemperature of nearby coastal locations

Air masses travelling over warm oceancurrents promote instability and precipitation

Additionally, the warm ocean water keeps airtemperatures somewhat warmer thanlocations just inland from the coast during thewinter

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Ocean conveyor belt

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Ocean and the rise of temperature

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Climate change impacts

to the ocean (1)

Ocean acidification

Refers to the fact that the CO2 forms a weakacid (carbonic acid) in water, making the

ocean more acidic. The basic chemistry is as follows: the ocean is

a weakly-alkaline solution (with a pH of ~ 8.1),but this extra CO2 changes the carbonate

chemistry of the surface ocean and drives theocean pH lower, meaning that the ocean isbecoming more acidic (less alkaline).

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Continues.

The average pH of the worlds oceans has

dropped by about 0.1 pH units since thebeginning of the industrial age. Without deep

and early reductions in global carbonemissions, oceanic uptake of anthropogeniccarbon will result in a further drop of 0.3 to0.7 pH units by the year 2100.

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Ocean acidification process

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Impacts of acidification

Physiological processes of calcifyingorganisms, including corals, echinoderms,coccolithophores, mollusks, and somezooplankton, which use various forms ofcalcium carbonate to construct cell coveringsor skeletons.

Some coral reefs may no longer be able to

grow fast enough to keep up with the naturalforces that break them down

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Facts of acidification

Great Barrier Reef (Australia) has impact thatcoral growth rates have already decreased by15% in the last 15 years. The skeletons that thecorals are currently building also may be weaker,making them more vulnerable to erosion, stormdamage and predators

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PH levels in the worlds ocean

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Degree of pH level

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Ocean acidification & its

consequences

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Climate change impacts

to the ocean (2)

Coral bleaching

Temperature increases of only 1.52C lastingfor six to eight weeks are enough to trigger

bleaching. When high temperatures persist formore than eight weeks, corals begin to die.Many other stressors can also causebleaching including disease, sedimentation,

pollutants and changes in salinity It can affect reefs at regional to global scales

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Continues

Coral bleaching occurs when the coral hostexpels its zooxanthellae. Photosyntheticpigments of the zooxanthellae give corals

much of their colour. Therefore without thezooxanthellae, the tissue of the coral animalappears transparent and the corals bright

white skeleton is revealed

global warming will reduce the worlds majorcoral reefs in exceedingly short time framesone estimate suggests that all current coralreefs will disappear by 20-40%

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Pictures of coral bleaching

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Coral bleaching in SE Asia

In 19971998 El Nio occurred in SoutheastAsia has damaged about 18% of the coralecosystems in region (Wetland International)

Indonesia: the eastern part of Sumatra, andin Java, Bali, and Lombok; in ThousandIslands (north of the Jakarta coast), about9095% of corals 25 meters below the

surface were bleached Philippines: 70% of the corals have been

bleached in the Masinloc Fish Sanctuary

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S i i i f

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Socio-economic impacts of

coral bleaching

Maldives: coral bleaching led to an estimatedloss in 199899 tourism-related revenues ofUS$0.53.0 million.

Palau (an island in western Micronesia): reefssuffered at least 50% coral mortality in the199798 bleaching event, experienced a 510% drop in tourism in the years following the

event

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Continues

Totally, the massive coral bleaching in 1998is expected to result in an estimated long-term damage over 20 years of between $600

million and $8 billion with costs incurredthrough declines in tourism-generated incomeand employment, decreases in fishproductivity, and loss of reefs functioning as a

protective barrier.

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Asias coral reef prediction

IPCC report (2007) suggests that between24% and 30% of the reefs in Asia are likely tobe lost during the next 10 years and 30 years,

respectively (14% and 18% for global), unlessthe stresses are removed and relatively largeareas are protected.

The loss of reefs in Asia may be as high as

88% (59% for global) in the next 30 yearsunder IPCCs emission scenario

Cli h i

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Climate change impacts

to the ocean (2) The surface of the ocean temperature more

"lighter" than the denser cold water beneathit. This results in a layering or "stratification"

of ocean waters that creates an effectivebarrier between the surface layer and thenutrients below: cutting off phytoplankton'sfood supply

The shortage phytoplankton will impact todecrease fisheries availability and otherecosystems

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Ocean stratification process

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Impacts of ocean stratification

The decreasing fish stocks threaten foodsecurity in many coastal areas but haveimplications far beyond. Fisheries and

tourism are major sources of employment,often in developing countries. Loss of habitatand degrading stocks could heavily impact onemployment

Cli t h i t

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Climate change impacts

to the ocean (3) Extreme climate events

Coasts are highly vulnerable to extremeevents, such as storms, which impose

substantial costs on coastal societies According IPCC fourth assessment report,

annually about 120 million people are exposedto tropical cyclone hazards, which killed

250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 Coastal communities are at risk from natural

(for example, hurricanes, cyclones, tsunamis,and floods) and human-induced disasters.

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Protecting the coastlines

Losses of habitats such as mangrove foreststhreaten the safety of people in 118 coastalcountries

Mangroves and salt-marshes not only serveas a buffer from storm damage, but alsoprovide areas for fish spawning and nurseryareas for both inshore and offshore capture

fisheries; they also absorb heavy metals andother toxic substances

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Continues

Many of the mangrove forests have beenconverted into aquaculture and other relatedprojects, and in some cases are converted

into human settlements where gathering ofmangrove trees for charcoal making &construction materials are practicedunsustainably

As a consequence, many areas have beenexposed to tidal waves and coastal erosion

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Continues Many of the worlds mangrove areas have

become degraded due to populationpressures, widespread habitat conversion,

and pollution. For countries with available data (representing

54% of total current mangrove area) anestimated 35% of mangrove forests have

disappeared in the last two decades at therate of 2.1% per year, or 2,834 km2 per year

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Continues Coastal flooding and erosion have been

accelerated by the destabilization ofcoastlines due to advancing sea levels and

extreme events (such as La Nia and tropicalcyclones)

The tropical cyclones that hit Southeast Asiain recent years, together with storm surges,

have accelerated the erosion of beaches,steep bluffs, deltas, and mangrove swamps

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Coastlines under pressure in SEA

The rob phenomenon, or the inundation ofcoastal areas during spring tide in Indonesia:

In Demak, the first observed rob, in 1995,

affected more than 650 ha of coastal areas insix villages of Sriwulan, Bedono, TimbulSeloka, Surodadi, Babalan, and Beran Wetan

Philippines: Cebu and La Union (coastal

erosion) Thailands 2,667-km shoreline is under

serious threat from coastal erosion

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Address to the policies

Enhance capacity building on mitigation andadaptation measures, especially on oceantechnology research, development; including

Exchange of data and information Develop public outreach and education

strategies. Stakeholders and the public needfurther encouragement to deepen their

awareness of the relationship betweenclimate change and the oceans

Mitigation and adaptation measures

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Thank you

THANK YOU