occupier and investment markets enjoy buoyant period as ... · pdf file... commercial real...

MARKETVIEW

China, Q2 2017

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

OFFICE

Better-than-expected economic performance helped

drive solid office leasing activity in H1 2017.

However, market momentum is likely to be moderated

in H2 2017 amid the tighter credit environment.

RETAIL

The performance of bricks-and-mortar stores

improved this quarter, in spite of higher costs. The

China Chain Stores & Franchise Association reported

that sales of 2,300 retailers across China increased

significantly in H1 2017.

LOGISTICS

E-commerce businesses completed a number of

sizable leasing transactions in Q2 2017. Leasing

demand from 3PL companies also improved across a

number of cities. Vacancy remained low in tier I and

adjunct cities along with key tier II cities.

CAPITAL MARKET

Outbound investment continued to shrink following

the imposition of tighter capital controls at the end of

2016. This encouraged more investors to purchase

assets in the domestic market, which pushed up total

transaction volume to RMB 95 billion in Q2 2017,

marking a record high for the second quarter.

One Belt One Road initiative marks new

phase of regional development

Q2 2017 CBRE Research © CBRE Ltd. 2017 | 1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

3

6

9

12

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Q1 2

017

千

(RMB tn) Total Property Investment (LHS) y-o-y (RHS)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Q2 2017

Figure 1: Total Property Investment Volume

Occupier and investment markets

enjoy buoyant period as economic

growth exceeds expectations

*Arrows indicate change from previous quarter.

6.9%

H1 2017

1.5%

June

8.5%

H1 2017

51.7

June

10.4%

H1 2017

MARKETVIEW

| © CBRE Ltd. 2017

MACRO ECONOMY

MARKET PERFORMANCE

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

0

20

40

60

80

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

H1 2

017

(RMB tn) GDP (LHS) y-o-y (RHS)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

H1 2

017

(RMB tn) Retail Sales (LHS) y-o-y (RHS)

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

H1 2

017

(USD tn)Total Exports/Imports (LHS) Exports (LHS)

Total Exports/Imports y-o-y (RHS) Exports y-o-y (RHS)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

H1 2

017

(RMB tn) Fixed Asset Investment (LHS) y-o-y (RHS)





Figure 2: GDP

Figure 3: Retail Sales

Figure 4: Fixed Asset Investment

Figure 5: International Trade

Q2 2017 CBRE Research2

MARKETVIEW

80

100

120

140

160

180

Q1 2

003

Q1 2

004

Q1 2

005

Q1 2

006

Q1 2

007

Q1 2

008

Q1 2

009

Q1 2

010

Q1 2

011

Q1 2

012

Q1 2

013

Q1 2

014

Q1 2

015

Q1 2

016

Q1 2

017

Q1 2003 = 100

Overall Tier I Cities Tier II Cities

MARKET PERFORMANCE

Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2017 Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2017

Figure 6: Office Supply & Demand Figure 7: Office Rental Index


OFFICE MARKET

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

H1 2

017

(mn sq. m.) New Supply (LHS)

Net Absorptino (LHS)

Vacancy Rate (RHS)

MARKETVIEW MARKET PERFORMANCE

Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2017 Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2017

Figure 8: Retail Supply & Demand Figure 9: Shopping Mall Ground Floor Rental Index

Q2 2017 CBRE Research| © CBRE Ltd. 20174

RETAIL MARKET

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

H1 2

017



Vacancy Rate (RHS)

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

Q1

2003

Q1

2004

Q1

2005

Q1

2006

Q1

2007

Q1

2008

Q1

2009

Q1

2010

Q1

2011

Q1

2012

Q1

2013

Q1

2014

Q1

2015

Q1

2016

Q1

2017

Q1 2003 = 100

Overall Tier I Cities Tier II Cities

MARKETVIEW

0%

10%

20%

30%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

H1 2

017



Vacancy Rate (RHS)

MARKET PERFORMANCE

Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2017 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Q2 2017

Figure 10: Logistics Supply & Demand


INDUSTRIAL MARKET CAPITAL MARKET

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

H1 2

017

十亿

(RMB bn)GFA Sold of Commodity House (LHS) y-o-y (RHS)

Figure 11: Commercial Real Estate Investment Turnover

MARKETVIEW MARKET PERFORMANCE

Figure 12: CBRE Market Quick Stats Q2 2017

City q-o-q Office Retail* Logistics

Beijing Rental Growth 0.1% 0.2% 1.3%

Vacancy Rate Change 0.3 pps 0.2 pps

Tianjin Rental Growth -0.1% -0.4% 0.1%


Dalian Rental Growth -0.3% 0.0% 0.0%


Shenyang Rental Growth -2.5% 0.0% 0.0%


Qingdao Rental Growth -0.2% 0.1% 0.0%


Shanghai Rental Growth -0.1% 0.1% 0.1%


Nanjing Rental Growth 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%


Hangzhou Rental Growth 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%


Ningbo Rental Growth -0.6% 0.0% 0.0%


Suzhou Rental Growth -0.1% 0.0% 0.0%


Wuxi Rental Growth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


Guangzhou Rental Growth 1.5% 0.1% 0.0%


Shenzhen Rental Growth -0.2% 0.0% 0.6%


Chengdu Rental Growth 0.0% -0.2% -0.8%


Chongqing Rental Growth -0.3% -0.1% -0.7%


Wuhan Rental Growth -0.2% -0.5% -0.5%


Changsha Rental Growth -0.5% 0.2%


* Retail sector reports shopping mall ground floor rents.

Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2017


MARKETVIEW OUTLOOK IN SIX MONTHS

* Retail sector reports shopping mall ground floor rents.



Figure 13: CBRE Market Outlook (Six Months)

City Forecast Office Retail* Logistics

Beijing Rental Growth 0% 0%−1% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

Tianjin Rental Growth -1%− 0% -1%− 0% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

Dalian Rental Growth -2%− -1% 0%−1% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

Shenyang Rental Growth -3%−-1% 0%−1% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

Qingdao Rental Growth -1%−0% -1%− 0% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

Shanghai Rental Growth -3%−-1% 0%−1% 1%−3%

Vacancy Rate Change

Nanjing Rental Growth 0%−1% 0%−1% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change −

Hangzhou Rental Growth 0%−2% 0% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

Ningbo Rental Growth 0%−1% 0%−1% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

Suzhou Rental Growth -1%− 0% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

Wuxi Rental Growth -1%− 0% 0%−1%


Guangzhou Rental Growth 1%−3% 0%−1% 0%

Vacancy Rate Change

Shenzhen Rental Growth -3%− 0% -1%−1% 1%−4%


Chengdu Rental Growth 0%− 1% -1%− 0% -3%−-1%

Vacancy Rate Change

Chongqing Rental Growth -1%− 0% -1%− 0% -3%−-1%

Vacancy Rate Change

Wuhan Rental Growth -1%− 0% -1%− 0% -1%− 0%

Vacancy Rate Change

Changsha Rental Growth -1%− 0% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

MARKETVIEW

BEIJING OFFICE MARKET

BEIJING RETAIL MARKET

NORTH CHINA, BEIJING

0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)

Rental Index Grade A Rental Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)

Shopping Mall Ground Floor Rental Index

Office Retail Logistics

Rental Growth 0% 0%−1% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change



Figure 14: CBRE’s View in Six Months

Figure 15: Beijing Office Market

Figure 16: Beijing Retail Market


MARKETVIEW NORTH CHINA, BEIJING

BEIJING LOGISTICS MARKET

0

40

80

120

160

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09 =

100

)

Rental Index


Figure 17: Beijing Logistics Market


MARKETVIEW

Figure 20: Tianjin Retail Market

TIANJIN OFFICE MARKET

TIANJIN RETAIL MARKET

NORTH CHINA, TIANJIN


Rental Growth -1%− 0% -1%− 0% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

0

50

100

150

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

04 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09 =

100

)

Rental Index





Figure 19: Tianjin Office Market

Figure 21: Tianjin Logistics Market


MARKETVIEW

Figure 25: Dalian Logistics Market

Figure 24: Dalian Retail Market

NORTH CHINA, DALIAN

DALIAN OFFICE MARKET

DALIAN RETAIL MARKET


Rental Growth -2%− -1% 0%−1% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09 =

100

)

Rental Index





Figure 23: Dalian Office Market


MARKETVIEW

SHENYANG OFFICE MARKET

SHENYANG RETAIL MARKET

NORTH CHINA, SHENYANG


Rental Growth -3%− -1% 0%−1% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


0

30

60

90

120

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

08 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

11 =

100

)

Rental Index





Figure 27: Shenyang Office Market

Figure 28: Shenyang Retail Market

Figure 29: Shenyang Logistics Market


MARKETVIEW

0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


NORTH CHINA, QINGDAO

QINGDAO OFFICE MARKET

，

QINGDAO RETAIL MARKET


Rental Growth -1%− 0% -1%− 0% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

0

50

100

150

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


0

30

60

90

120

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09=

100

)

Rental Index





Figure 31: Qingdao Office Market

Figure 32: Qingdao Retail Market

Figure 33: Qingdao Logistics Market


MARKETVIEW

SHANGHAI OFFICE MARKET

SHANGHAI RETAIL MARKET

EAST CHINA, SHANGHAI


Rental Growth -3%−-1% 0%−1% 1%−3%

Vacancy Rate Change

0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)




Figure 35: Shanghai Office Market


0

100

200

300

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


Figure 41: Shanghai Retail Market


MARKETVIEW

SHANGHAI LOGISTICS MARKET

Q2 2017 CBRE Research

EAST CHINA, SHANGHAI

© CBRE Ltd. 2017 | 15

0

50

100

150

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09 =

100

)

Rental Index

Figure 36: Shanghai Logistics Market


MARKETVIEW

Figure 40: Nanjing Logistics Market

NANJING OFFICE MARKET

NANJING RETAIL MARKET

EAST CHINA, NANJING

16


Rental Growth 0%−1% 0%−1% 0%−1%


0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

200

Q2 0

6

Q3 0

7

Q4 0

8

Q1 1

0

Q2 1

1

Q3 1

2

Q4 1

3

Q1 1

5

Q2 1

6

Inde

x (Q

2 20

06 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09 =

100

)

Rental Index




Figure 38: Nanjing Office Market

Figure 39: Nanjing Retail Market



MARKETVIEW

Figure 43: Hangzhou Retail Market

0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


Figure 44: Hangzhou Logistics Market

EAST CHINA, HANGZHOU


Rental Growth 0%−2% 0% 0%

Vacancy Rate Change

0

200

400

600

800

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09 =

100

)

Rental Index





Figure 42: Hangzhou Office Market

© CBRE Ltd. 2017 | 17Q2 2017 CBRE Research

HANGZHOU OFFICE MARKET

HANGZHOU RETAIL MARKET

MARKETVIEW

Figure 48: Ningbo Logistics Market

NINGBO OFFICE MARKET

NINGBO RETAIL MARKET

EAST CHINA, NINGBO


Rental Growth 0%−1% 1%−3% 0%−1%


0

50

100

150

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


Note: Grade A Office: Q4 2005 = 100

0

100

200

300

Q2 0

3

Q2 0

4

Q2 0

5

Q2 0

6

Q2 0

7

Q2 0

8

Q2 0

9

Q2 1

0

Q2 1

1

Q2 1

2

Q2 1

3

Q2 1

4

Q2 1

5

Q2 1

6

Q2 1

7

Inde

x (Q

2 20

03 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09 =

100

)

Rental Index





Figure 46: Ningbo Office Market

Figure 47: Ningbo Retail Market


MARKETVIEW

SUZHOU OFFICE MARKET

SUZHOU RETAIL MARKET

EAST CHINA, SUZHOU


Rental Growth -1%− 0% 0%−1%

Vacancy Rate Change

0

30

60

90

120

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

07 =

100

)




Figure 50: Suzhou Office Market


0

50

100

150

200

250

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

07 =

100

)



Figure 51: Suzhou Retail Market

MARKETVIEW

WUXI OFFICE MARKET

WUXI RETAIL MARKET

EAST CHINA, WUXI




0

50

100

150

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

07 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

07=

100

)





Figure 54: Wuxi Retail Market

Figure 53: Wuxi Office Market


MARKETVIEW

GUANGZHOU OFFICE MARKET

SOUTH CHINA, GUANGZHOU

0

50

100

150

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)




Rental Growth 1%−3% 0%−1% 0%

Vacancy Rate Change


Figure 56: Guangzhou Office Market


MARKETVIEW

GUANGZHOU RETAIL MARKET

GUANGZHOU LOGISTICS MARKET

SOUTH CHINA, GUANGZHOU

0

40

80

120

160

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09 =

100

)

Rental Index


Figure 58: Guangzhou Logistics Market


0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)



Figure 57: Guangzhou Retail Market

MARKETVIEW

SHENZHEN OFFICE MARKET

SOUTH CHINA, SHENZHEN


Rental Growth -3%−0% -1%−1% 1%−4%


0

50

100

150

200

250

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)




Figure 60: Shenzhen Office Market


MARKETVIEW

SHENZHEN RETAIL MARKET

SHENZHEN LOGISTICS MARKET

SOUTH CHINA, SHENZHEN

0

50

100

150

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09 =

100

)

Rental Index


Figure 62: Shenzhen Logistics Market


0

50

100

150

200

250

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)



Figure 61: Shenzhen Retail Market

MARKETVIEW

Figure 66: Chengdu Logistics Market

Figure 65: Chengdu Retail Market

CHENGDU OFFICE MARKET

CHENGDU RETAIL MARKET

WEST CHINA, CHENGDU


Rental Growth 0%− -1% -1%− 0% -3%−-1%

Vacancy Rate Change

0

50

100

150

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

200

Q2 0

4

Q2 0

5

Q2 0

6

Q2 0

7

Q2 0

8

Q2 0

9

Q2 1

0

Q2 1

1

Q2 1

2

Q2 1

3

Q2 1

4

Q2 1

5

Q2 1

6

Q2 1

7

Inde

x (Q

2 20

04 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09 =

100

)

Rental Index





Figure 64: Chengdu Office Market


MARKETVIEW

Figure 69: Chongqing Retail Market

Figure 70: Chongqing Logistics Market

CHONGQING OFFICE MARKET

CHONGQING RETAIL MARKET

WEST CHINA, CHONGQING


Rental Growth -1%− 0% 0%−1% -3%−-1%

Vacancy Rate Change

0

50

100

150

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

09 =

100

)

Rental Index





Figure 68: Chongqing Office Market


MARKETVIEW

Figure 73: Wuhan Retail Market

WUHAN OFFICE MARKET

WUHAN RETAIL MARKET

Figure 74: Wuhan Logistics Market

0

100

200

300

Q3 0

4

Q3 0

5

Q3 0

6

Q3 0

7

Q3 0

8

Q3 0

9

Q3 1

0

Q3 1

1

Q3 1

2

Q3 1

3

Q3 1

4

Q3 1

5

Q3 1

6

Inde

x (Q

3 20

04 =

100

)


CENTRAL CHINA, WUHAN


Rental Growth -1%−0% -1%− 0% -1%− 0%

Vacancy Rate Change

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q1 0

3

Q1 0

4

Q1 0

5

Q1 0

6

Q1 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

03 =

100

)


0

30

60

90

120

Q3 1

3

Q4 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q2 1

4

Q3 1

4

Q4 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q2 1

5

Q3 1

5

Q4 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q2 1

6

Q3 1

6

Q4 1

6

Q1 1

7

Q2 1

7

Inde

x (Q

3 20

13 =

100

)

Rental Index





Figure 72: Wuhan Office Market


MARKETVIEW

CHANGSHA OFFICE MARKET

CHANGSHA RETAIL MARKET

CENTRAL CHINA, CHANGSHA



Vacancy Rate Change

0

50

100

150

200

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

08 =

100

)


0

50

100

150

Q1 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q1 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q1 1

3

Q1 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q1 1

6

Q1 1

7

Inde

x (Q

1 20

08 =

100

)





Figure 76: Changsha Office Market

Figure 77: Changsha Retail Market


MARKETVIEW

Rental Decline SlowingRental Decline Accelerating Rental Growth SlowingRental Growth Accelerating

Figure 79: Retail Rent Cycle

RENT/PRICE CYCLE

Figure 78: Office Rent Cycle

Figure 80: Logistics Rent Cycle




S Suzhou

W Wuxi

S Shenyang

C Changsha

C Chengdu

C Chongqing

GGuangzhouS Shanghai

HHangzhou

WWuhan

BBeijing

T Tianjin

D Dalian

Q Qingdao

S Shenzhen

NNingbo

SShenyang

S Suzhou

Q Qingdao GGuangzhou

BBeijing

DDalian

SShanghai

NNanjing

NNingbo

WWuhanC Chengdu

CChangsha TTianjin

HHangzhouW Wuxi

S Shenzhen

CChongqing

W Wuhan SShenzhen

C Chengdu

C ChongqingBBeijing

TTianjin

SShenyang

QQingdao

SShanghai

NNingbo

NNanjingHHangzhou

GGuangzhou

DDalian

NNanjing


MARKETVIEW

MAJOR LUXURY RESIDENTIAL

AND OFFICE AREAS

MAJOR INDUSTRIAL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE, LUXURY

RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS


AREAS


NORTH CHINA SUBMARKETS

TIANJIN MAJOR SUBMARKETS

DALIAN MAJOR SUBMARKETS



RESIDENTIAL , RETAIL

AND INDUSTRIAL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AND

LUXURY RESIDENTIAL

AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AREAS

BEIJING MAJOR SUBMAKETS

1

102

849

3

5

1112

13

17

16

14

15

18

7

6

THIRD RING ROAD

310

11

2

68

4

5

9

7

12

1315

1

16

14

17

4

1

2

63

57

8

9

1011


AREAS



RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS

MARKETVIEW NORTH CHINA SUBMARKETS


3

1

2

7

5

8

9

10

11

6

4

10 11

9

8

1213

14

15

1

2

6

4

7

5

3

SHENYANG MAJOR SUBMAKETS


AREAS



RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS

QINGDAO MAJOR SUBMARKETS

MAJOR INDUSTRIAL AREASMAJOR OFFICE, LUXURY

RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR LUXURY

RESIDENTIAL AREAS

MARKETVIEW

EMERGING OFFICE AND RETAIL

AREAS

EMERGING RETAIL AREAS

EAST CHINA SUBMARKETS


3

1

11

25

8

4

10

6

9

7

13

1415

12

錢塘

江

1

1211

3

6

4

97

10

8

2

5 13

13

14

15

16

17

3

1

11

25

8

4

10

6

9

7

13

1415

12

3

1

15

16

14

2

674

5

10

11

17

12

13

89

18

2527

28

29

30

22

23

19

20

21

24

31

32

26

SHANGHAI MAJOR SUBMAKETS


AREAS



RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS

HANGZHOU MAJOR SUBMARKETS


AREAS



RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AND

LUXURY RESIDENTIAL

AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AND

LUXURY RESIDENTIAL

AREAS

NANJING MAJOR SUBMARKETS


AREAS



RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS

MARKETVIEW EAST CHINA SUBMARKETS


4

6

7

2

3

5

1

2

1

3

5

4

6

NINGBO MAJOR SUBMAKETS


AREAS



RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AND

LUXURY RESIDENTIAL

AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AREAS

SUZHOU MAJOR SUBMARKETS

WUXI MAJOR SUBMARKETS


RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS


RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS

MARKETVIEW SOUTH CHINA SUBMARKETS


11

17

1612

1314

15

5

6

4

2

7

1

3

8

10

9

HONG KONG S.A.R.

3

1

10

11

2

6

13

4

5

7

12

8

9

14

1516

17

DEEP BAY

GUANGZHOU MAJOR SUBMAKETS


AREAS



RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS

SHENZHEN MAJOR SUBMARKETS

MAJOR OFFICE AND

INDUSTRIAL AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AND LUXURY

RESIDENTIAL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AREAS


AREAS



RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AND

RETAIL AREAS

MARKETVIEW WEST CHINA SUBMARKETS


3

45

1

7

2

11

12

6

8

9

10

YANGTZE RIVER

1

SECOND RING ROAD

5

2

3

7

4

6

910

8

CHONGQING MAJOR SUBMARKETS

CHENGDU MAJOR SUBMAKETS


RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS


RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS


MARKETVIEW


RESIDENTIAL AND

RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AND

LUXURY RESIDENTIAL

AREAS

MAJOR OFFICE AND

RETAIL AREAS

CENTRAL CHINA SUBMARKETS


8

1

2

7

6

1618 17

3

9

10

11

4

512

13

14 15

5

1

2

13

3

4

8 11

12

9

6

7

10

CHANGSHA MAJOR SUBMARKETS

WUHAN MAJOR SUBMAKETS

MAJOR OFFICE AND RETAIL

AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AND LUXURY

RESIDENTIAL AREAS

MAJOR RETAIL AREAS


AREAS


EMERGING RETAIL AREAS

MARKETVIEW CONTACT US

BEIJING

SHENZHEN

HANGZHOU

SHANGHAI

CHENGDU

GUANGZHOU

WUHAN


• 5 REGIONAL HUBS

• MORE THAN 30 SERVICE LOCATIONS

• COVERS MORE THAN 100 CITIES ACROSS CHINA

MARKETVIEW NOTES


MARKETVIEW

Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy andcompleteness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.

CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH

This report was prepared by China team which forms part of CBRE Global

Research – a network of preeminent researchers who collaborate to provide

real estate market research and econometric forecasting to real estate.

CBRE CHINA RESEARCH

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