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TRANSCRIPT
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Venezuela's economic results of 2014
The economy went into recession even when oil prices averaged US$100
PIB Var% PI
General
Oil related activities
Non-oil related activities
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity and waterConstruction
Trade and repair services
Transport and storage
Communications
Financial institutions and insurance
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Growth Rate (quarterly)
Source: BCV
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Venezuela's economic results of 2014
Key sectors in recession
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2010 2011 2012 2013 201
Manufacturing GDP (quaterly)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Construction GDP (quaterly)
Manufacturing and construction employ about 20% of the workforce
Source: BCV, INE, ODH Grupo Consultor
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If we look back in time...
In 2013, the per capita GDP was similar to the one from 1974 and
Source: BCV, Menpet, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, ODH Grupo Consultor
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
1
9 5 8
1
9 6 1
1
9 6 4
1
9 6 7
1
9 7 0
1
9 7 3
1
9 7 6
1
9 7 9
1
9 8 2
1 9 8 5
1 9 8 8
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 4
1
9 9 7
2
0 0 0
2
0 0 3
2
0 0 6
2
0 0 9
2
0 1 2
G D P
p e r c a p i t a
( M M B
s F , 1 9 9
7 c o n s t a n t p r i c e s )
Real GDP per capita 2013 real GDP per capita Venezuela's oil basket price
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Venezuela's economic results of 2014
Inflation continued to grow
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
E n e 2 0 0 9
M a r 2 0 0 9
M a y 2 0 0 9
J u l 2 0 0 9
S e p 2 0 0 9
N o v 2 0 0 9
E n e 2 0 1 0
M a r 2 0 1 0
M a y 2 0 1 0
J u l 2 0 1 0
S e p 2 0 1 0
N o v 2 0 1 0
E n e 2 0 1 1
M a r 2 0 1 1
M a y 2 0 1 1
J u l 2 0 1 1
S e p 2 0 1 1
N o v 2 0 1 1
E n e 2 0 1 2
M a r 2 0 1 2
M a y 2 0 1 2
J u l 2 0 1 2
S e p 2 0 1 2
N o v 2 0 1 2
E n e 2 0 1 3
M a r 2 0 1 3
M a y 2 0 1 3
J u l 2 0 1 3
S e p 2 0 1 3
N o v 2 0 1 3
E n e 2 0 1 4
M a r 2 0 1 4
M a y 2 0 1 4
J u l 2 0 1 4
Annualized inflation (INPC)
sep-14 64,1%
oct-14 63,9%
nov-14 63,7%
Source: BCV
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Venezuela's economic results of 2014
Food inflation approached the 3 digits
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
E n e 2 0 0 9
M a r 2 0 0 9
M a y 2 0 0 9
J u l 2 0 0 9
S e p 2 0 0 9
N o v 2 0 0 9
E n e 2 0 1 0
M a r 2 0 1 0
M a y 2 0 1 0
J u l 2 0 1 0
S e p 2 0 1 0
N o v 2 0 1 0
E n e 2 0 1 1
M a r 2 0 1 1
M a y 2 0 1 1
J u l 2 0 1 1
S e p 2 0 1 1
N o v 2 0 1 1
E n e 2 0 1 2
M a r 2 0 1 2
M a y 2 0 1 2
J u l 2 0 1 2
S e p 2 0 1 2
N o v 2 0 1 2
E n e 2 0 1 3
M a r 2 0 1 3
M a y 2 0 1 3
J u l 2 0 1 3
S e p 2 0 1 3
N o v 2 0 1 3
E n e 2 0 1 4
M a r 2 0 1 4
M a y 2 0 1 4
J u l 2 0 1 4
Annualized Food inflation (INPC)
sep-14 93,7%
oct-14 94,6%
nov-14 92,8%
Source: BCV
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Venezuela's economic results of 2014
After a 12 year oil boom, the price of oil began to fall ...
Source: Menpet
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
J a n - 9 9
J u n - 9 9
N o v - 9 9
A p r - 0 0
S e p - 0 0
F e b - 0 1
J u l - 0 1
D e c - 0 1
M a y - 0 2
O c t - 0 2
M a r - 0 3
A u g - 0 3
J a n - 0 4
J u n - 0 4
N o v - 0 4
A p r - 0 5
S e p - 0 5
F e b - 0 6
J u l - 0 6
D e c - 0 6
M a y - 0 7
O c t - 0 7
M a r - 0 8
A u g - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
J u n - 0 9
N o v - 0 9
A p r - 1 0
S e p - 1 0
F e b - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
D e c - 1 1
M a y - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
M a r - 1 3
A u g - 1 3
J a n - 1 4
Venezuela’s oil basket price (US$)
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Venezuela's economic results of 2014
...and oil exports began to fall...
Source: BCV, Menpet, ODH Grupo Consultor
* Note: the 2014 figure is an annual estimate of ODH Grupo Consultor.
22,1 28,57 37,01 50,46 60,19 67,47 86,49 57,01 71,97 101,06 103,42 98,08 8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2
B i l l i o n U S $
Oil exports Non-oil exports Venezuela's oil basket price (US$/barrel)
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Venezuela's economic results of 2014
...and imports also began to fall
Source: BCV, ODH Grupo Consultor
* Note: the 2014 figure is an annual estimate of ODH Grupo Consultor.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2
B i l l i o n U S $
Total imports
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Venezuela's economic results of 2014
International Reserves remain fairly low
Source: BCV
* Defined by Rafael Ramírez (Minci, 10.18.2013).
19.808
Oct 24, 2003
43.127
Dic 31, 2008
22
Febr
0
5
10
1520
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 2 / 0 1 / 2 0 0 3
1 5 / 0 4 / 2 0 0 3
3 0 / 0 7 / 2 0 0 3
0 5 / 1 1 / 2 0 0 3
1 6 / 0 2 / 2 0 0 4
0 1 / 0 6 / 2 0 0 4
1 0 / 0 9 / 2 0 0 4
2 1 / 1 2 / 2 0 0 4
0 4 / 0 4 / 2 0 0 5
1 8 / 0 7 / 2 0 0 5
2 5 / 1 0 / 2 0 0 5
0 2 / 0 2 / 2 0 0 6
1 8 / 0 5 / 2 0 0 6
3 1 / 0 8 / 2 0 0 6
0 8 / 1 2 / 2 0 0 6
2 3 / 0 3 / 2 0 0 7
1 0 / 0 7 / 2 0 0 7
1 8 / 1 0 / 2 0 0 7
2 8 / 0 1 / 2 0 0 8
1 3 / 0 5 / 2 0 0 8
2 2 / 0 8 / 2 0 0 8
2 7 / 1 1 / 2 0 0 8
1 2 / 0 3 / 2 0 0 9
2 6 / 0 6 / 2 0 0 9
0 5 / 1 0 / 2 0 0 9
1 5 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0
3 0 / 0 4 / 2 0 1 0
1 2 / 0 8 / 2 0 1 0
1 9 / 1 1 / 2 0 1 0
2 8 / 0 2 / 2 0 1 1
1 3 / 0
6 / 2 0 1 1
2 3 / 0 9 / 2 0 1 1
0 3 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 2
1 7 / 0 4 / 2 0 1 2
0 1 / 0 8 / 2 0 1 2
0 9 / 1 1 / 2 0 1 2
2 2 / 0 2 / 2 0 1 3
1 1 / 0 6 / 2 0 1 3
2 0 / 0 9 / 2 0 1 3
0 2 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 4
1 5 / 0 4 / 2 0 1 4
I n t e r n a t i o n a l
R e s e r v e s ( B i l l i o n U S $ )
"Optimum"*
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The problem lies within the economic model
More control... What results is it generating?
Source: BCV, ODH Grupo Consultor
* Nota: up to November 2014.
Since the first price controls were implemented in February 2003:
GENERAL INFLATION*
1,706.51%
FOOD INFLATION*3,911.74%
In 2000 and 2001, years in which there were no price controls, inflation wa13.4 and 12.3%: THE lowest levels of the past 16 years.
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The problem lies within the economic model
More control... What results is it generating?
Source: BCV, ODH Grupo Consultor
Distorted exchange rate: the parallel dollar exceeds 180 BsF/US$,while Cencoex is 6.3 BsF/US$, that of Sicad 1 is 12 BsF/US$ and Sicais 52 BsF/US$.
Allocative inefficiency: some estimate that the debt to the privatesector ranges between US$ 8,000 and US$ 12,000 million, while othe
take it up to US$ 14,000 million.International Reserves broke the US$ 20,000 million floor andremain near that number. Between 2002 and 2014, the largest oil boin history, Venezuela received close to US $ 800,000 million from oilexports.
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The problem lies within the economic model
More control... What results is it generating?
Source: BCV, ODH Grupo Consultor
jan-08; 24,7%
au
apr-05; 5,1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%40.0%
J a n - 0 5
J u n - 0 5
N o v - 0 5
A p r - 0 6
S e p - 0 6
F e b - 0 7
J u l - 0 7
D e c - 0 7
M a y - 0 8
O c t - 0 8
M a r - 0 9
A u g - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
J u n - 1 0
N o v - 1 0
A p r - 1 1
S e p - 1 1
F e b - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
M a y - 1 3
S c
a r c i t y I n d e x
Scarcity Index "Normal" scarcity levels 20% barrier
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The Central Government avoided unpopular measures in 2014But failed to prevent the loss of popular support
* Datanálisis
November/2013 November/
Inflation (annualized) 58.2%
Scarcity 23%
GDP 1.3%(2013)
Oil price 94 US$/b 7
Black Market Exchange Rate 60.5 BsF/US$ 114,3
Negative perception of the country situation* 72.8%
Negative assessment of NM administration* 53.5%
Source: BCV, Menpet, Datanálisis, ODH Grupo Consultor
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A year before the 2010 parliamentary elections
Datanálisis, Oct 2009 – Aug 2010 BCV
38.746.2
36
51
59.2
46.2
63
40
Situación país AprobacióngestiónChávez
Situación país AprobacióngestiónChávez
2009 2010
Positiva Negativa
2010 parliamentary elections results (CNE)
Pro government Opposition Participation48% 52% 67%
2009
Inflation 25%
Scarcity 13%
Growth rate -3%
Oil Price US$/b 57
(US$/b 29less than 2008) le
Imports US$ 40,669 MM.(US$ 10,821 MM less
than 2008)
US$ 3(US$ 2
Countrysituation
Approvallevels
Chávez
ApprovallevelsChávez
Countrysituation
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A year before presidential electons 2012
Datanálisis, Oct 2011 – Aug 2012 BCV
2012 presidential elections results (CNE)
Pro government Opposition
Participation
55% 45% 80%
40.9
5155.8 55.857.6
44.641.2
33.9
Situación país AprobacióngestiónChávez
Situación país AprobacióngestiónChávez
2011 2012
Positiva Negativa
2011
Inflation 28%
Scarcity 13%
Growth rate 4.2%
Oil Price US$/b 101(US$/b 29
more than 2010) m
Imports US$ 46,813 MM.(US$ 18,274 MMmore than 2010)
US$ 59(USmo
Countrysituation
Approvallevels
Chávez
ApprovallevelsChávez
Countrysituation
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A year before presidential electons 2013
Datanálisis, Apr 2011 – Apr 2013 BCV
Resultado presidenciales 2013
Oficialismo Oposición Participación51% 49% 80%
67.2 65
50.8 55.2
31.8 29.2
46.3
34.3
Situación país AprobacióngestiónChávez
Situación país AprobacióngestiónMaduro
2012 2013
Positiva Negativa
2012
Inflation 20%
Scarcity 14.2%
Growth rate 5.6%
Oil Price US$/b 103(US$/b 2
more than 2011) le
Imports US$ 59,339 MM.(US$ 12,526 MMmore than 2011)
US$ 5(US$ 7
Countrysituation
Approvallevels
Chávez
ApprovallevelsMaduro
Countrysituation
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A year before legislative electons 2015
Datanálisis, Oct 2014 BCV, ME
18.2
30.2
81.6
67.5
Situación país Aprobación gestiónMaduro
Positiva Negativa
20
Inflation 6(Aug
Scarcity 3(Aug
Growth rate -2,
Oil Price US$/b 88(US$/b 9.7 less than 2
Imports US$ 17,351 M(1st semester, US$ 4
MM less than 20
Countrysituation
Approval levelsMaduro
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ODH Grupo Consultor, C.A.
Email: [email protected] Teléfono: 955.22.85 – 952.11.36
Richard Obuchi
Email: [email protected] @RichardObuchi
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]