observing and modelling the east australian current and its eddies using imos data and bluelink...
TRANSCRIPT
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Observing and Modelling the East Australian Current and its Eddies using IMOS data and Bluelink models
David Griffin, Madeleine Cahill and Peter Oke
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
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What is the East Aust Current doing now? Bluelink and IMOS can help
• OceanMAPS is the Bluelink global ocean model, run by BoM. Has 4 parallel members, updated in turn, each producing a 7-day forecast.
• OceanMAPS analysis cycle assimilates altimetry, SST and Argo into MOM using multivariate ensemble optimal interpolation. Initialises the forecast.
• ROAM is the Bluelink Relocatable Ocean-Atmosphere Model. Nested within OceanMAPS, it provides higher resolution, adds tides and assimilates additional data. Runs at CSIRO and RAN.
• IMOS has a new sub-project Ocean Current with a similar broad objective, but different focus and approach.
• SynTS is the Ocean Current 3-D ocean analysis. Uses gridded sea level anomaly from altimetry, and SST anomaly (from AVHRR) to adjust climatology.
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National view of Sea Surface Temperature:Warm in the west and south, cool in the east
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Gridded sea level & Sea Surface Temperature
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Start tour of ocean at surface on 20 Jan 2012:OM, OC, ROAM 20 Jan SST, SSV.
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Back 1day:OM, OC, ROAM 19 Jan SST, SSV.
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Back 1day:OM, OC, ROAM 18 Jan SST, SSV.
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Back 1day:OM, OC, ROAM 17 Jan SST, SSV.
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Back 1day:OM, OC, ROAM 16 Jan SST, SSV.
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Back 1day:OM, OC, ROAM 15 Jan SST, SSV.
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Go down to 250m:OM, OC, ROAM 15 Jan T_250, V_250
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Altimeter view:OM, OC 15 Jan SSH
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Forward 1day:OM, OC 16 Jan SSH
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Forward 1day: OM, OC 17 Jan SSH
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Forward 1day: OM, OC 18 Jan SSH
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Next OceanMAPS member:OM(b), OC 18 Jan SSH
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Next OceanMAPS member: OM(c), OC 18 Jan SSH
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Back to 250m:OM(c), OC 18 Jan T_250, V_250
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Back up to surface:OM(c), OC 18 Jan SST, SSV
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Forward 1day (NB result of assimilation):OM(c), OC 19 Jan SST, SSV
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Forward 1day:OM(c), OC 20 Jan SST, SSV
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Back to start:OM(a), OC 20 Jan SST, SSV
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Main points
• Ocean nowcasting is here. The GODAE dream has eventuated.• Error estimation is difficult. Observations are sparse. • Ensemble approach, and size of assimilation shocks, expose
uncertainties.• Three analyses yield same picture: a weak warm core eddy is
mostly detached from the EAC at depth but additional warm surface water is occasionally flooding over the eddy and being advected around its perimeter.
• A low-energy version of the situation last year:
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• Compare to last year (when the sea level anomaly broke the record)
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Conclusion
• Can we ‘monitor’, let alone forecast, the EAC as precisely as we want to?
• That depends on how demanding you are.• Present-day products are definitely worth using. Ask any
Sydney-Hobart competitor.• But still plenty of scope for improvement. Observations are too
few and/or the assimilation is not sufficiently optimal, to constrain the model trajectory to the truth.
• Also need to improve the accessibility of information, while containing user expectations.
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Thankyou
• … to the many people and agencies (ESA, EuMetSat, CNES, NASA, NOAA, Argo, Drifter program) for the data shown here.
• … to all members of the (BoM and CSIRO) Bluelink and (many) IMOS teams and communities
• … RAN and DIISRTE for continued support
• Bluelink forecast: www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/forecasts.index.shtml
• OceanCurrent: imos.aodn.org.au/oceancurrent
• Plug: www.altimetry2012.org Abstracts due 15 Feb.
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