Observations of Our Changing Planet:Observations of Our Changing Planet:Weather EXTREMESWeather EXTREMES

Professor Menglin JinMETR112: Global Climate Change

The Weather Extremes and Climate ChangeVideo

• http://www.met.sjsu.edu/metr112-videos/MET%20112%20Video%20Library-MP4/weather%20extremes/

• Global Warming-1.mp4

Meehl et al. 2005 ScienceGCM simulated

sea surface temperature and sea Level rise

under different CO2 conditions

Sea level rise

Surface Air TemperatureSurface will keep warming

Sea level will keep rise

DefinitionsDefinitions

• Climate Change: – Changes in climate of the past, present or future associated

with natural or anthropogenic (human) factors

• Global Warming:– Warming of the 20th and 21st century associated with

anthropogenic activities.

Weather VS Climate

• Weather describes whatever is happening outdoors in a given place at a given time.

• Weather is what happens from minute to minute.

• can change a lot within a very short time

• Weather includes daily changes in precipitation, barometric pressure, temperature, and wind conditions in a given location.

• Climate describes the total of all weather occurring over a period of years in a given place.

• Climate tells us what it's usually like in the place where you live

Landsat 7Landsat 74/15/994/15/99

NASA Earth Satellite Provide tremendous Observations

TerraTerra12/18/9912/18/99

AquaAqua5/4/025/4/02

TRMMTRMM11/27/9711/27/97

Weather can be measured from space. Average of weather can get climate

Weather Extremes

• Hurricane• Flood• Snowfall• Drought• fire• etc

what are the frequency and strength of extreme weather events in a changing climate

What does it mean by extreme?

Extreme value distributions are often used to model the smallest or largest value among a large set of independent, identically distributed random values representing measurements or observations.

frequency

Climate value

Extremes

Where are the extremes here?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/extremes.html

NOAA Extreme Weather and Climate Events

Landsat 7 Observes Flooding in New OrleansLandsat 7 Observes Flooding in New OrleansHurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina

September 7, 2005September 7, 2005

September 15, 2005September 15, 2005

TRMM: Unprecedented Views of Hurricanes

Hurricane Ike was the third most destructive hurricane to ever make landfall in the United States. It was the ninth

named storm, fifth hurricane and third major hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season

Category 4

Hurricane and SST Change

(Webster et al, 2005, Science)

Webster et al. report that the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled globally over the past three decades

Hurricane and SST Change

Emanuel, K. A. (2005) reports that a measure of the power dissipated by tropical cyclones (proportional to the cube of wind speeds accumulated over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific basins) has approximately doubled since about 1950, with most of the increase occurring over the past 30 years. According to Emanuel, increases in both intensity and duration of tropical cyclones have contributed to this apparent increase. Emanuel's power dissipation index (PDI) is strongly correlated with sea surface temperatures in these basins, which have increased markedly over the same period.

Emanuel, K. A. (2005), Nature

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html

Be careful

• Hurricanes are natural events, and are not linearly related to climate change

• Climate change, by increase SST, indeed makes it more possible to have strong hurricane occur

Saharan Dust Front - Ground ViewSaharan Dust Front - Ground View

Saharan Dust Front - AlgeriaSaharan Dust Front - Algeria

Arctic sea ice coverage, 1979 and 2003 NASA http://www.learner.org/channel/courses/envsci/unit/text.php?unit=12&secNum=7

20-Year Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Coverage20-Year Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Coverage

Parkinson et al. (1999) and Vinnikov et al. (1999)Parkinson et al. (1999) and Vinnikov et al. (1999)

Yearly and Seasonal Ice Coverage TrendsYearly and Seasonal Ice Coverage Trends

YearlyYearly –2.8%/decade–2.8%/decade

WinterWinter –2.2%/decade–2.2%/decade

SpringSpring –3.1%/decade–3.1%/decade

SummerSummer –4.5%/decade–4.5%/decade

AutumnAutumn –1.9%/decade–1.9%/decade

37,000 km37,000 km22/year decrease of sea ice area/year decrease of sea ice area

over a 19.4 year period observed from over a 19.4 year period observed from satellitesatellite

Deviation of Monthly Arctic Sea Ice AreaDeviation of Monthly Arctic Sea Ice Area22 years from Nimbus 7 to DMSP22 years from Nimbus 7 to DMSP

Parkinson et al. (1999)Parkinson et al. (1999)

YearYear

7979 8181 8383 8585 8787 8989 9191 9393 9595 9797 9999

1.01.0

0.50.5

0.00.0

-1.5-1.5

Sea Ice

Are

a (

10

Sea Ice

Are

a (

10

66 k

m k

m22))

-0.5-0.5

-1.0-1.0

Seasonal Cycle RemovedSeasonal Cycle Removed

DMSP: Defense Meteorological Satellite program

MODIS Flyby of the Himalayas & Ganges ValleyMODIS Flyby of the Himalayas & Ganges Valley

Glaciers as a Harbinger of Global ChangeGlaciers as a Harbinger of Global Change Glacier National ParkGlacier National Park

– 110 glaciers have disappeared in the past 150 years110 glaciers have disappeared in the past 150 years– 37 remaining glaciers expected to disappear within 25 years37 remaining glaciers expected to disappear within 25 years

Mt. KilimanjaroMt. Kilimanjaro– All glaciers likely to disappear within 20 yearsAll glaciers likely to disappear within 20 years

160,000 glaciers worldwide being monitored by satellites (especially Landsat 160,000 glaciers worldwide being monitored by satellites (especially Landsat 7/ETM+ and Terra/ASTER)7/ETM+ and Terra/ASTER)

Gangotri Glacier, HimalayaGangotri Glacier, Himalaya

Bhutan-HimalayaBhutan-Himalaya

Seasonal Snow Coverage from MODIS

Flood

Flood occurs all over the globe

China

Land Cover Change in FloridaLand Cover Change in Florida1900 vs 19921900 vs 1992

Human influence has transformed southern FloridaHuman influence has transformed southern Florida Land converted to cropland and citiesLand converted to cropland and cities Everglades transformed from deep-water sloughs and bog marsh into drier Everglades transformed from deep-water sloughs and bog marsh into drier

sawgrass marshessawgrass marshes Mangroves have shrunk dramaticallyMangroves have shrunk dramatically

Crop and Property Damages from Natural Crop and Property Damages from Natural HazardsHazards

1960 – June 20041960 – June 2004

$14.5-$500$14.5-$500

$500-$1,250$500-$1,250

$1,250-$2,500$1,250-$2,500

$2,500-$5,000$2,500-$5,000

$5,000-$545,000$5,000-$545,000

$/Square mile$/Square mile

San Francisco County ($26.8 million/square mile)San Francisco County ($26.8 million/square mile) Los Alamos ($16.5 million/square mile)Los Alamos ($16.5 million/square mile)

Hazards Research Lab, U of South CarolinaHazards Research Lab, U of South Carolina

Summary and ResourcesSummary and Resources

Satellites have played a crucial role in Satellites have played a crucial role in understanding and documenting global changeunderstanding and documenting global change– sources and sinks of carbon in the oceans and landsources and sinks of carbon in the oceans and land– global surface and atmospheric temperatureglobal surface and atmospheric temperature– sea ice extent and changesea ice extent and change– glacial retreatglacial retreat– hurricaneshurricanes

Resource on Earth science, including news stories, Resource on Earth science, including news stories, images of the day, data sets, and natural hazardsimages of the day, data sets, and natural hazards– earthobservatory.nasa.gov

The only way to have real success in science ... is to describe the evidence very carefully without regard to the way you feel it should be. If you have a theory, you must try to explain what's good about it and what's bad about it equally. In science you learn a kind of standard integrity and honesty.

— Richard Feynman

What does it mean by extreme?

Extreme value distributions are often used to model the smallest or largest value among a large set of independent, identically distributed random values representing measurements or observations.

frequency

Climate value

Extremes

Where are the extremes here?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/extremes.html

NOAA Extreme Weather and Climate Events