John ColemanDepartment of Political Science

UW-Madison

Catholic Charities, MadisonSeptember 21, 2009

Obama, the Presidency, and Diversity: The Historic, the Ordinary

Fundamentals of the 2008 Election

The economy / consumer confidence Right direction / wrong track Unpopular Republican president Dissatisfaction with the situation in Iraq A shift away from Iraq and toward domestic issues Lots of mobilization, high voter turnout during the

nomination Party identification and registration trending Democratic Hard for a party to win three consecutive elections:

Repubs 1980-1988 are the only example since FDR

Mixed Signals Facing Every President

Head of state vs. head of government Leader vs. responsive follower Flexible vs. decisive Open administration vs. in control Average Joe vs. high private expectations Which issues, which order, which positions?

Obama Approval by Group

2030405060708090

100

Jan 19-25

Feb 23-Mar 1

Mar 30-Apr 5

May 4-10

June 8-14

July 13-19

Aug 17-23

Aug 31-Sep 6

White Black Hispanic

Figure 1-2 Approval of George W. Bush's Job Performance, 2001-2006, by Party Identification

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All Respondents Republicans Democrats Independents

Sources : 288 CBS News/New York Times and Gallup polls.

Figure 6-4 Partisan Differences in Support for the War in Iraq

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Removing Hussein worth loss of lives Result of war worth loss of livesApprove of military action in Iraq All in all the Iraq war was worth itU.S. did the right thing in going to war Support or oppose current U.S. Military presense in IraqSupport/favor or oppose going to/having gone to war Right decision despite CIA report on WMDWar was not a mistake

War begins

Figure 6-6 Partisan Differences in Support for Vietnam War

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U.S. did not make a mistake in sending troops to fight in VietnamU.S. did the right thing in getting into the fighting in VietnamU.S should have become involved in Southeast Asia

Sources: John E. Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1973). P. 271, and the 1964-1972 NES Surveys.

Figure 6-7 Partisan Differences in Support for the Persian Gulf War

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War worth loss of lives and other costs U.S. did the right thing in starting ground war against IraqWar against Iraq not a mistake Favor military action if necessary to liberate Kuwait Approve decision to go to war War worth it all in allRight thing to send troops to defend Saudis

Sources : CBS News/New York Times polls; Gallup Polls reported in Ole R. Holsti, Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy , Revised Edition (Ann Arbor: Universityof Michigan Press, 2004), p. 173, and ABC News/Washington Post polls.

War begins

European Attitudes toward US, September 2009

2008 2009

Desirable for US to exert strong leadership in world

33 50

Relations have improved between US and Europe in past year

17 37

Approval of president’s international policies

19 79

Feeling thermometer-US 48 55

Policy Matters Most European allies still refuse to send significantly more

troops to Afghanistan. The Saudis basically ignored Mr. Obama’s request for concessions to Israel, while Israel rebuffed his demand to stop settlement expansion. North Korea defied him by testing a nuclear weapon. Japan elected a party less friendly to the United States. Cuba has done little to liberalize in response to modest relaxation of sanctions. India and China are resisting a climate change deal. And Russia rejected new sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program even as Mr. Obama heads into talks with Tehran. (NYT 9-19-09)

Perceptions of Whether Race Relations are Generally Good or Generally Bad

Whites:Generally good

Whites:Generally bad

Blacks:Generally good

Blacks:Generally bad

July 2008 55 34 29 59

April 2009 65 21 59 30

CHANGE +10 -13 +30 -29

New York Times, April 27, 2009

The Road Ahead Evaluations will continue to diverge sharply by party Evaluations on changes in race relations likely to

persist, but decline World opinion favorable, but details matter Eases way for future candidates In most respects, evaluated as most any other

president would be—historic in its own way