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IPCC - WGI

Source: Thompson et al. 2008.

ENSO = El Nino/Southern Oscillation

COWL= cold ocean, warm land

IPCC - WGI

Source: Thompson et al., 2008.

IPCC - WGI Source: Thompson e tal., 2008.

Observed Vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860

IPCC

Observed vs. modeled temperature riseObserved vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860since 1860

Computer Model Comparison of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing (red) vs. Only Natural Forcing (blue)

Figure 10.31

IPCC - WGI

Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

Anthropogenic warming is likely discernible on all inhabited continents

Observed

Expected for all forcings

Natural forcing only

1000Years

of CO2 and

Temperatures

Figure 10.29

Fig. 10.28 Global temperature trends, 1880-2003Annual & five-year means, the 0 baseline represents the 1951-1980 global average - which is 14ºC (52.2ºF).

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group I

Temperature trends

Temperature AnomaliesFigure 10.30

10,000 Years of Greenhouse

Gases

Figure 10.32

Figure 10.34

What’s in the pipeline and what could comeWarming will increase if GHG increase. If GHG were kept fixed at current levels, a committed 0.6°C of further warming would be expected by 2100. More warming would accompany more emission.

1.8oC = 3.2oF

2.8oC = 5.0oF

3.4oC = 6.1oF

CO2 Eq

850

600

4000.6oC = 1.0oF

Surface Temperature Projections

Figure 10.35

Changing winds, temperatures Changing winds, temperatures and storm tracksand storm tracks

• Anthropogenic forcing Anthropogenic forcing has has likelylikely contributed contributed to circulation changes to circulation changes (storm tracks, winds (storm tracks, winds and temperature and temperature patterns)patterns)

• Warmer, wetter Warmer, wetter winters in Norway; winters in Norway; drier in Spain (and drier in Spain (and North Africa)North Africa)

Source: IPCC 2007, Working Group 1, AR4 (Assessment Report 4).Source: IPCC 2007, Working Group 1, AR4 (Assessment Report 4).

A1B is a typical “business as usual” (2090-2099) scenario: Global mean warming 2.8oC;

Much of land area warms by ~3.5oCArctic warms by ~7oC; would be less for less emission

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

New in AR4: Drying in much of the subtropics, more rain in higher latitudes, continuing the broad pattern of rainfall changes already observed.

Emissions & StabilizationWedges