o projeto pirata & sua importância para a previsão climática regional
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O PROJETO PIRATA & sua importância para a previsão climática regional. Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE IIIX Reunião de Análise Climática do Nordeste/2003 Recife, 4-5 de setembro de 2003. Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE X-ISABP Arraial do Cabo, RJ 23 August 2004. The PIRATA Rational. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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O PROJETO PIRATA & sua importncia para a previso climtica regional.Paulo NobreCPTEC/INPEIIIX Reunio de Anlise Climtica do Nordeste/2003Recife, 4-5 de setembro de 2003Paulo NobreCPTEC/INPE
X-ISABP Arraial do Cabo, RJ23 August 2004
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The PIRATA RationalTo provide a better description of the two main modes of Tropical Atlantic SST variability, namely the:Equatorial mode: [interannual]Meridional mode: [decadal]
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The PIRATA PROJECT
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THE PIRATA BACKBONE
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PIRATA BRAZIL
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Marine Operations
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PIRATA SATELLITE DATA RELAY
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PIRATA buoy data available on near-real time on the Internet:12N 38W0N 23WAUG 23, 2004TEMPERATURESOLAR RADIATION
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Solar Radiation EstimatesPIRATAPIRATAPIRATA 8N-38WGOESPIRATA 8N-38WGOES0.04 degree resolution0.5 degree resolution
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Buoy Data Received at CPTEC from GTS within a 24h period.
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PIRATA BACKBONE & SW EXTENSION Background Map: Long term mean No. SST observations/month (COADS)
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PIRATA ARRAY
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The PIRATA SWE: Why It?To complement PIRATAs ITCZ study (the meridional SST mode) To expand PIRATA, including SACZ sea-air exchanges and tropics-extra tropics interactionsTo improve regional climate predictability
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ObjectivesImproving knowledge of ocean-atmospheric interactions over the tropical South Atlantic toward generating skillful SST predictionsModeling effort to improve coupled o-a models and forecasting toolsEnhancing oceanographic and meteorological observational infrastructure over the tropical South Atlantic
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Mechanisms to be studiedSITCZ-Cold Tong Complex (Grodsky and Carton, 2002)Western Atlantic Warm Pool (Huang and Carton, 1995)Eastern Nordeste seasonal rainfall predictability (Rao and Lima, 1993)SACZ-SST feedback processes (Chaves and Nobre, 2004; Barreiro and Chang, 2003)
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An enhanced observational network over the SW Atlantic: BenefitsBoth satellite altimetry and tide gauges measurements along the coast and islands are necessary for an effective monitoring of mean sea level.T-S vertical profiles are needed to estimate the amount of heat stored on the upper ocean.
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Density Anomaly Advection by the South Equatorial Current
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SITCZ(Grodsky and Carton, 2002)
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SACZ & SSTA : Observations17-25 NOVEMBER 1999
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Nobre et al. (2002)
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Source regions of Subtropical-Tropical Cell watersFrom: Hazeleger et al. (2003)
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Anomaly Correlation: NordesteDry Spells Duration & SST
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Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 2004
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CPTECs Ocean-Atmosphere coupled model suite
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Coupled GCM for Weather Prediction: The Catarina Phenomenon
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Will extreme events become more frequent in a warmer climate?
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Ventos & Correntes PIRATA
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Equatorial Undercurrent Simulation at CPTEC
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PERSISTENCE MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILLRepelli and Nobre (2004)
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SIMOC MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILLRepelli and Nobre (2004)
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SIMOC SSTA FORECAST SKILLNorth AtlanticSouth AtlanticNOVEMBERDECEMBERRepelli and Nobre (2004)
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Nobre et al. (2002)
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Chaves (2003)WARM-COLD SST OGCM EXPERIMENTS
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CPTECs Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere model suite