144.The desire for childreUnwanted pregnancies arebad. But so is the unfulfilleddesire for children—and thatproblem is growing: leader,page 10. Our pollof 19countries reveals a neglectedglobal scourge: the number ofwould-be parents who havefewer children than theywant—or nonepages 14-16

ALAOf

O b SET, 2gx

On the coverNew discoveries, intelligentdevices and irreprensibledreamers are once againmaking space exciting:leader, page 7. An Earth-sized planet has beendiscovered in a propitiousorbit around a nearby star.A new phase in the search forLife elsewhere is about tobegin, page 59• Howinnovative technology andSilicon Valley entrepreneursare creating a new spaceage: Technology Quarterly,after page 36

The Economist online

Iailyanalysis and opinion tosupplementthe print edition, plusaudio and video, and a daity chartEconomist.com

E-mail: newsletters andmobile editionEconomist.com/email

Print edition: available online by7pm London time each ThursdayEconomist.com/print

Audio edition: available onlineto download each FridayEconomist.com/audioedition

TheEconomist

Volume 420 Number 9004

Publishedsince September 1843ro Cake part in "a severa cantes( betweenintelligence, «bicis presses fonvard, andan unwarthy, timid ignorante obstructingaur progress."

Editorial offices in London and also:Atlanta, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago,Lima, Menino City, Moscow, Mumbai, Nairobi,New Delhi, New York, Paris, San Francisco,Sáo Pauto, Seout, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo,Washington DC

5 The world this week

Leaders

7 Space explorationBrave new worlds

8 Colombia and the FARCEnding a half-century of war

8 Monetary policyWhen 2% is not enough

9 Turkey and the WestDon't lose the plot

10 The desire for childrenWanted

Letters

11 On Taiwan, obesity,China, Alaska, UltimateFrisbee, economics, jazz

Briefing14 Demography and desire

The empty crib

16 In vitro fertilisationAn arm and a leg for afertilised egg

United States

17 Immigration economicsWage war

18 Alaskan agricultureGrowing farmers

19 The MelungeonsDown in the valley, up onthe ridge

22 LexingtonClinton Republicans

The Americas23 Colombia

Unlearning war

24 Chile's pensionsThe perils of not saving

Asia25 Kashmir

Vale of tea rs

26 Filipino communistsRebels in their dotage

26 Politics in KarachiSlarnmer dunk

27 Leafy Singapore...Move over, Merlion

28 ...and sooty South KoreaBad air days

28 Learning English in JapanTal< like a gaijin

China29 Sexual abuse of children

A hidden horror32 Banyan

Hong Kong's mood

Middle East and Africa33 The war in Syria

Turkeyjoins in

34 The Muslim BrotherhoodThe ballot and the Book

35 Religion in ZimbabweTithing troubles

35 Central AfricaNostalgia for a nightmare

36 Mining in CongoThe richest, riskiest tinmine on Earth

Technology QuarterlySpaceAfter page 36

Europe37 Turkey's anger at the West

A visit from Biden

38 Sarkozy returnsThe revenant

39 Croatian stagnationPolitics of the past

39 An earthquake in ItalyBeauty and tragedy

40 War and peace in UkraineFighting for position

Britain

41 Scottish educationNot so bon ny

42 Brexit and immigrationRaising the drawbridge

43 BagehotOur columnist hits thebaffle

Turkey How to dealwith theWest's most awkward ally:leader, page 9. Recep TayyipErdogan's threatto realign hiscountry towards Russia ismore barkthan bite, page 37.The battlefield in Syria growsmore complicated, page 33

The MelungeonsAn Appalachian people offersa timely parable of thenuanced historyof race inAmerica, page 19

► Contents continues overleaf

Colombia's peace dealAfter220,000 deaths, voters shouldendorse the new Colombianpeace accord: leader, page 8.A chance to become a normalcountry, page 23

Autonomous schoolsLiberating schools to run theirown affairs produces somegreat ones, butalso plenty ofdross. The priorityisto spreadsuccess, page 44. Scotland'sschools were once among thebestin the world. What wentwrong? Page 41

Inflation targets The richworld's central banks need anew target: leader, page 8.Should the Fed aim for higherinflation? Page 53. India's newcentral-bank chief looks like aclone of the old one, page 54.Americans are spending andhiring. So why aren'tfirmsinvesting? Page 54

Mafia managementThe crimefamilies of Naples areremarkably good at business:Schumpeter, page 50

4 Contents The Economist August 27th 2016

International

44 School reformAfter freedom, what?

Business

46 Linux and AWSCloud chronicles

47 ViacomIn the narre of the father

48 Cement manufacturersCracks in the surface

48 FootballWinging it

49 Direct sellingAmway in China

50 SchumpeterMafia management

Economics brief

51 The Mundell-FlemingtrilemmaTwo out of three ain't bad

Finance and economice

53 Central bankingThe Jackson four

54 India's central bankReserve player

54 American investmentEconundrum

55 Drought insuranceARC's covenant

57 Rising LIBORSECutar shift

57 Hedge fundsLaw of averages

58 Free exchangeTrust and technology

Science and technology59 Hunting for aliens

Proximate goals60 How to find exoplanets

Round and round themulberry bush

61 OceanographyDeep waters

62 Keeping ships cleanFoul play

62 Medical batteriesDark arts

Books and arts

63 Karl MarxFatse consciousness

64 America and CongoRich pickings

64 CrossrailOld London journey

65 New fictionIman Verjee's Africa

65 Hollywood in theMiddle EastWar games

66 JohnsonRue the rules

68 Economic and financialindicatorsStatistics on 42 economies,plus a closer look at youthunemployment

Obituary

70 Donald HendersonMan v virus

Subscription serviceFor our latest subscription offers, visitEconomist.com/offersFor subscription service, please contact byteLephone, fax, web or mai( at the detailsprovided below:

North AmericaThe Economist Subscription CenterP.O. Box 46978, St. Louis, MO 63146-6978Telephone: +1 800 456 6086Facsimile: +1 866 856 8075E-mail: customerhetp@economist.com

Latin America 8 MexicoThe Economist Subscription CenterP.O. Box 46979, St. Louis, MO 63146-6979Telephone: +1 636 449 5702Facsimile: +1 636 449 5703E-mail: customerhelp@economist.com

Subscription for 1 year (51 issues)United States US 8158.25 (plus tax)

Canada CA $158.25 (plus tax)

Latin America US $289 (plus tax)

Principal commercial offices:25 Stiames's Street, London SW1A 1HG

Tel: +44 20 7830 7000

Rue de DAth én ée 321206 Geneva, SwitzerlandTel.: +41 22 566 2470

750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, NewYork, NY 10017Tel.: +1 212 541 0500

1301 Cityplaza Four,12 Taikoo Wan Road, Taikoo Shing, Hong KongTel.: +852 2585 3888

Other commercialoffices:Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, Los Angeles,Paris, San Francisco and Singapore

PEFC'PEFC/29-31-58

PEFC certified

This copy of The Economistis printed on paper sourcedfrom sustainably managedforeste certified te PEFCwww.pefc.org

Orecycle

rer 2016 The Economist Newspaper Limited. Artrights reserved. Neither this publicado, nor any parí of it mas be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transented in any form or by any mean s, etectronio, mechanical, photocopOng, recording orotherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist (155N 0073-0613) is pub[ished every week, except for a year-end cloub[e Mue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited, 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10017.The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Periodica[s postage paid at New York, 'co and additiona [ mailing offices. Postmaster Send address changes ro The Economist, P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis , 68140-6078, USA.Canada Post publicadoras man (Canadian distribution) sales agreement no. 40052331. Return undeUverableCanadian addresses to The Economist, PO Box 7258 STN A, Toronto, ON 145W 1X9. GS7 9123236267. Printed by grad/Graphics, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866