nyse:u - seeking alphadec 19, 2020 · unity, inc. (“unity”, the “company”) is a software...
TRANSCRIPT
NYSE:U
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As of Q3 2020
Introduction & Background• Introduction• Company Background• Create Solutions• Operate Solutions• Notable Customers and Projects• Competition
Investment Analysis• Trading History• Porter’s Five Forces• Key Metrics• The Future• MOAT• Risks• Valuation
• Upside Optionality• Conservative Scenario• Base Scenario• Growth Scenario
• Conclusion
Table of Contents
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Unity, Inc. (“Unity”, the “Company”) is a software company headquartered in San Francisco. Unity began in Denmark in 2004 and was restructured as a Delaware corporation in 2009. Unity provides software creation tools and monetization services for content creators, primarily in the gaming industry.
September 2020 IPO values the Company’s equity at ~$19 billion, up from ~$6 billion in the last private placement in May, 2019.
This presentation presents Unity as an investment prospect.
The presentation was last updated December 19, 2020.
Introduction
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Background1
Unity powered projects account for 5B app downloads per month with 2.5B end-users.
94 of the top 100 game development Companies by revenue use Unity.
Employees1
Unity has 3,379 employees across 44 offices and 16 countries.
1,879 employees in R&D, representing 56% of total employees.
64% of employees were outside the U.S.94% of employees said they would recommend Unity as a great place to work.
Company Background
1. Data as of YTD 9/30/20202. Data as of YTD 6/30/2020
EMEA38%
Asia-Pacific32%
Americas30%
Revenue Source2
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Revenue share/usage based model, with 50B in-app events per day across 20 platforms. Large availability of data (2 billion monthly active end-users as of June 2020) allows Unity Creators to optimize performance, maximize end-user acquisition, and monetize effectively. Goal: optimize end-user acquisition and operational costs while increasing the lifetime value of their end-users.
Strategic SolutionsGenerates fixed fee, royalty, and revenue-share arrangements in hardware, operating system, device, game console, and other tech providers. Partners include Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nintendo, and many others.
Company Background – ContinuedUnity’s revenue breaks down between Create Solutions, Operate Solutions, and Strategic Partnerships.Create SolutionsLaunched to Windows and Mac in 2005 with the slogan "create once, deploy anywhere." A subscription model launched in 2016 with a 1-3 year renewal period. Create Solutions offers real-time 3D content creation and editing capability with contemporaneous editing capabilities for multiple creators, deployable to all 20 available platforms, without substantial technology investment and R&D necessary for creators.Operate SolutionsLaunched in 2014 as a service to grow, engage, and monetize Creators’ user base. Works in tandem with create solutions, but is available regardless of if the product was created in Create Solutions.
33.0% 31.1% 29.9%
48.4%
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59.6%18.6%
14.7%
10.5%
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200.0M
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600.0M
800.0M
2018 2019 Q3 2020 LTM
Revenue Breakdown
Create Solutions Operate Solutions Strategic Partnerships
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Create Solutions Unity software provides creators with custom scripting, HD rendering/pipeline, graphics, animation tools, audio tools, navigation, networking, and UI tools. Over 1.5M monthly active creators starting over 15,000 new projects daily1.
Plans for Unity Software• Unity Pro - 2/3 of Create Solutions revenue. Offers expanded suite of resources for larger clients.
• Creators on Unity Pro average 5.1 hrs/day on the platform1.
• Unity Plus - For customers in earlier stages of interactive real time 3D technology. • Unity Personal/Student - Designed for hobbyist, individual creators, and students.
• Goal to educate and grow this base as future Creators.
Additional Resources• Common Forum maintained for all creators to collaborate and communicate. • "Unite" conferences held on various continents regularly for creators to join industry leaders and
experts to improve creative abilities.
Create Solutions
1. Data as of YTD 6/30/2020
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Seasonal: tends to generate more revenue during holiday's.Lagging Indicator: Tends to lag the revenue trends from Create Solutions. Majority of revenue is gaming-related, but management expects additional industries to comprise an increasing percent of Operate Solutions revenue going forward.
Monetization Services• Unity Ads
• Unified Auction optimizes demand side for advertisers, increasing scalability.
• Unity IAP• In app purchases.
Other Services• End-User Engagement
• Data analytics and AI/ML tools to maximize customers lifetime value and realized monetization.
• Cloud Services• Multiplayer hosting, communications, cloud based delivery, and simulation services.
Operate Solutions
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Gaming
Create Solutions• Arena of Valor - Tencent
• Honor of Kings - Tencent
• Iron Man VR - Sony
• Ori and the Will of the Wisps -Xbox
• Pokémon GO - Niantic
Operate Solutions• EA
• Take-Two
• Tencent
• Ubisoft
Architecture, Engineering, & Construction
• Samsung
• SHoP
• Skanska (construction)
Unity is used by 8/10 of the top architecture, engineering, and design companies by revenue in 2019.
Auto & Transportation• BMW
• Honda
• Volvo
Unity is used by 10/10 of the top automotive companies by revenue in 2019.
Film & Animation• Freemantle Media
• Keyframe Studios
Disney’s 2019 Lion King was shot in real-time using Unity’s software integration with physical film hardware.
Notable Customers and Projects
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Create Solutions• Epic Games – Unreal Engine
• Competitor with leg up, competing in gaming and other industries, with both Create Solutions and Operate Solutions.• Epic Games created Fortnite, and has ~4 billion in revenue, and has VC’s ready to continue pouring money into the
company.• Involved with lawsuit with Apple which has simmered down. Very aggressive company.
• Roblox• Not code based. Community of developers and players, kid friendly. Growing rapidly and going public in January 2021.
• Chukong Technologies – Cocos2d• Smaller, private company competing with Create Solutions.
Operate Solutions• Epic Games
• Amazon
• Microsoft
• Tencent
Competition
Less of a short-term worryUnity has natural pipeline for customers and more vertical, gaming-based monetization
experience. Any of these players beginning to invest substantial
R&D into the space is something to watch for over the next few years.
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Investment Analysis
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IPO• Unity raised 1.3B equity at a 13.6B valuation pre-IPO. • The IPO on September 18, 2020 opened at ~18B equity valuation.
Q3 Earnings• Unity dropped in aftermarket trading as Management indicated lower expected growth to finish the year due to already elevated usage
levels due to COVID-19. Interestingly, the stock rose throughout the next trading day after opening lower. This shows that despite short-term forward guidance below street, the buy side was more than happy to buy on the down-day. The stock ended up ~4B in market cap from the prior day, up 12.8% from the close before the earnings dip.
Trading History
Since the IPO• Unity has increased +100% as of mid-December 2020
since the IPO in September.
Trading Patterns• Unity traded down 13.6% on November 9, 2020 after
Pfizer announced 90% effective vaccine results, which also caused the largest value-versus-growth one-day differential ever. I am not overly worried about this, but it flows into inflation and technology valuations risks: If the opportunity cost of cheaper stocks increases, the cost of equity for Unity naturally increases as an opportunity cost and reduces value despite fundamental strengths.
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Intra-Industry Rivalry• Epic Games competes directly with Unity, but the overlap in customer base is low. Almost all competition risk is forward
looking for market share expansion: there is plenty of growth available if Unity holds it’s market share.
New Entrants • Barriers to entry (startup R&D + annual competitive R&D) are very high, but profit margins are also high. The largest
risk from new entrants is the decision of a FAANG to enter the space.
Substitutes• There are few substitutes for what Unity offers. The CEO mentioned on the Q3 2020 earnings call that they could double
the price on Unity software and lose 3-5% of customers.
Supplier Power• Unity’s specialized R&D team and data centers reliance are the two primary risks associated with cost inputs.
• The Company currently has positive tailwinds from SBC advantages and brand awareness/respect in tech space resulting in elevatedability to hire a talented R&D workforce. These advantages are helpful, but may not be permanent and should be closely monitored.
• Unity may become increasingly reliant on Google to provide datacenters to the scale required. Looking forward, it’s unlikely that there will be substantial increases in these fees from Google specifically, and the contracts can be cut by either party. The issue would be if larger datacenters as a whole increased substantially in price over the next few years.
Buyer Power• Many customers exist, but Unity would be impacted noticeably by the loss of top earning customers. No customer makes
up more than 10% of Unity’s revenue, but there could be customers which make up something close to 10%. Customers have some negotiating power, but it’s unlikely to materialize.
Porter’s Five Forces
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The number of customers contributing more than 100k revenue (the “NCC>100k”) and percent of revenue from customers contributing more than 100k (the “PCC>100k”) provides details to the story of Unity.
As the gaming industry and Unity’s creator base continues to grow, there should be a consistent increase in NCC>100k. The PCC>100k should be more constant due to the number of entry level creators also increasing with revenue. PCC>100k can increase in the short-term as a result from one-hit, large-grossing, short-lived games.
If the PCC>100k were to continue to increase with stagnant growth in NCC>100k, it could begin to indicate reliance on key customers.
If the NCC>100k were to continue to increase with flat PCC>100k, it would likely indicate a healthy customer base, all else equal.
Key Metrics
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Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
Number of customers contributing> 100k revenue
Percent of revenue from customerscontributing > 100k revenue
NCC>100k PCC>100k
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30%
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Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020
Dollar-based net expansion rate
LTM revenue growth
The dollar-based net expansion rate (the “DBNER”) measures prior year customer revenue growth y/y. Unity has extremely impressive DBNER, but it’s difficult to gauge the stickiness of this growth. Of course the developers from last year have expanded their Create Solutions and the usage-based revenue from Operate Solutions has substantially increased, both from COVID-19 tailwinds. One reassuring statistic Unity provides is a 99% retention rate for NCC>100k as of June 30, 2020. I believe the stock will gyrate substantially when the DBNER growth from sticky customers relative to more temporary COVID-19 growth becomes more clear, but it does not materially change the 5-10 year story for Unity.
LTM revenue growth will always outpace DBNER by definition as it is composed of DBNER + new customers. Currently, revenue growth is outpacing DBNER at an increasing rate, which is bullish for DBNER if these customers are long-term. As the gap closes between the spread, the revenue growth rate will be a leading indicator for any slow down in DBNER as well as Operate Solutions in general, which tends to lag the growth from Create Solutions.
Key Metrics - Continued
LTM revenue DBNER
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Going forward, the gaming market is expected to grow at ~13% and the in-app purchasing (“IAP”) market is expected to grow at ~19%1. Cloud gaming, where games are streamed from a central cloud onto a device, is expected to grow at over 100% CAGR through 20232. • Video games released from AAA studios (mid-size, large publishers) have transitioned from annual releases in the early-
to-mid 2000’s to longer lasting games that are played for years with dynamic IAP options. Smaller budget video games have transitioned from one-time purchase models to IAP or advertising models. • Unity benefits from both of these trends if they continue to develop Operate Solutions.
The Metaverse• This is a term thrown around VC’s and software circles as a catch-all descriptor of an increasingly connected world
where there is less friction between platforms including social, gaming, and utilities. • This is noisy and difficult to quantify, but it is indisputable that the cutting edge software for live, 3-D creation will have a vital role
to play over the next two decades. • The disputable area includes whether Unity can remain at the forefront and whether AR and VR will play a vital role. Unity has
positioned itself as the leader in modified reality creation and testing. A/R and V/R was a big story 5 years ago that did not grow as quickly as VC’s anticipated, and this trend could continue going forward.
Market Size• Unity estimates a current (and saturated) TAM of 12 billion in gaming today across 15 million creators that will expand
to 16 billion in 2025 based on a study by Altman Vilandrie & Co.• Unity estimates a current (and unsaturated) TAM of 17 billion in other industries outside of gaming across 37 million
engineers, architects, designers, and developers. This is where the largest and riskiest upside potential for Unity is.
The Future
1. Market research from Grand View Research grandviewresearch.com2. Market research from Newzoo newzoo.com
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Over 50% of games on console, PC, and mobile are made with Unity. • Unity is analyzing over 50 billion in-app events per day, with over 5 billion app downloads per month. • There are over 1.5 million monthly active creators, with over 15,000 new projects created daily in the first half of
2020. • Year ending 12/31/19 - 63% of Operate Solutions revenue that came from customers with over 100k/annual rev
was from customers that also used Create Solutions. • Year to date 6/30/20 - 64% of Operate Solutions revenue that came from customers with over 100k/annual rev
was from customers that also used Create Solutions.
Unity has created a recurring revenue model which captures upside by attracting students, creators, and studios through easy to use, live, 3D creation and testing which can be deployed easily to 20 different platforms. As these creations are deployed, Operate Solutions is available and ready to capture and share the monetization upside from the successful projects created in Unity.
MOAT
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Inflation and Valuation Risk• In a situation where the company performs optimally over the next few years, the valuation could still decline by over half due to
opportunity cost in the market. Technology multiples could be cut to 1/5 of what they are today and would still trade at multiple times forward revenue if inflation and small businesses begin to outperform, pushing the cost of equity across other sectors down. This would push capital to lower multiple, less risky businesses, forcing technology valuations down despite strong fundamentals.
CEO & culture• John Riccitiello has a pending lawsuit against him for sexual harassment by a former Unity executive, who also alleges that Unity
has an over-sexualized work environment. Additionally, the CPO at the time was in a relationship with John (fired by the BoD in 2020), creating a toxic environment for employees to voice concerns. I believe that there is not substantial key-personnel risk with John, but I am worried about culture risk. This can impact hiring, internal efficiency, and invites headline risks. My concerns are slightly eased with the new CPO as well as multiple female leaders on both the BoD and executive leadership, but this is something to watch closely.
Epic Games• The largest business risk is intense competition for market share expansion and defense from Epic Games.
Costs & Margins• The ability for R&D to realize economies of scale as revenue continues to grow will be the largest driver of free cash flows going
forward. R&D will continue to increase substantially on a dollar basis, but if Unity cannot slowly reduce R&D as a percentage of revenue, cash flows will be towards the conservative end of the valuation to follow.
Gaming, A/R, & V/R• The consistent growth in gaming over the next decade is without a doubt implied in Unity’s forecast. A slowdown in this growth,
though difficult for me to imagine, would substantially reduce the forecasted top line growth. Additionally, if technology adaptation from customers outside of gaming does not expand as expected over the next few years, the revenue growth may be lower than expected.
Risks
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The following valuation extrapolates revenue growth, margins, and other
information specific to Unity to forecast out cash flows and discount them to the
present (DCF). As Unity today is almost completely comprised of revenue from
gaming, this is growth which is accounted for via the DCF analysis.
Separately from this DCF, I have added a secondary valuation in an attempt to
capture the upside optionality Unity is poised to capture from non-gaming
opportunities. Only 8% of Unity’s revenue from customers over 100k is from those
in industries outside of gaming. Unity is in a unique position at the cutting edge of
software services which can be used to simulations, design, and A/R and V/R
services across a variety of industries. I have first tried to to estimate what this
market would look like in the future, and thereafter looked at how Unity would
begin to capture this market.
Valuation
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The model begins with Unity’s estimated TAM of 17 billion today for non-gaming industries, which is provided by Unity. This is comprised of customers in film, automotive, manufacturing, retail, and other industries which could be utilizing Unity software today.
This TAM is grown at a CAGR for five years to 2025. As technology develops, the available markets, customers, and trained workforce increases. This CAGR is directly influenced by the rate and strength of technological disruption over the next decade.
The 2025 TAM is used as an estimated starting revenue for the available market of non-gaming market for 3D software development and design. Under the base case, this is grown at 7.5% annually. This market is assumed to take time to penetrate and develop, and Unity will not be able to capture the entire market due to competition. Unity’s market share is assumed to reach a maximum in 2031. Within gaming, Unity currently has over 50% of the market share for mobile app development, with a less dominate position in console/AAA game development. The base case estimates that Unity will reach a 25.0% market share in 2031. EBITDA margins are slightly lower than the Gaming DCF given that the non-gaming industry would not be as profitable as the gaming segment during the initial growth years. To capture the optionality of the non-gaming market, the present value of free cash flows are run through a call option: • The PV FCFE are input as the strike price. • The exercise price is $2 billion in additional capex estimated to be
invested on top of other R&D and capex.• 2% is used for the risk-free rate.• 0% dividend. • 5 year maturity. • 75% volatility.
Valuation - Upside Optionality
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Non-gaming TAM today 17.0B5 yr CAGR (tech growth, adaption, new entrants) 15%
Non-gaming total addressable market in 2025 34.2B
Non-gaming DCF 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035ENon-Gaming Market Revenue 34.2B 36.8B 39.5B 42.5B 45.7B 49.1B 52.8B 56.7B 61.0B 65.6B 70.5B
Growth 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
Unity market share/reach 1.8% 3.6% 7.2% 12.0% 16.0% 20.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Revenue captured 0.6B 1.3B 2.8B 5.1B 7.3B 9.8B 13.2B 14.2B 15.2B 16.4B 17.6B
EBITDA 0.0B 0.1B 0.3B 0.5B 0.9B 1.4B 2.2B 2.4B 2.6B 2.8B 3.0BEBITDA % 4.3% 6.1% 9.7% 10.1% 12.3% 14.1% 16.3% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8%
Net income (no interest) 0.0B 0.0B 0.1B 0.3B 0.5B 0.8B 1.3B 1.4B 1.5B 1.6B 1.7B
FCFE 0.0B 0.0B 0.0B 0.0B 0.1B 0.2B 0.3B 0.3B 0.4B 0.4B 0.4B
Discount rate 10.0%Long-term growth rate 3.0%
Sum of PV FCFE 2.0B 3.0% Gordon Growth Value of Call Option - Gordon Growth 1.2B
Sum of PV FCFE 5.5B 50.00 Exit P/FCFE Value of Call Option - 50 Exit P/FCFE 4.3B
Sum of PV FCFE 20.7B 5.00 Exit Revenue/Equity Value of Call Option - 5 Exit Rev/Equity 19.1B
Black-Scholes - Inputs Black-Scholes - Output
Security price 2.0B d1 0.8831 Exercise price 2.0B d2 (0.7940) Risk-free rate 2.0% N(d1) 0.8114 Dividend yield 0.0% N(d2) 0.2136 Cost of carry (rf-dividend yield) 2.0% Value of Call Option 1.2BMaturity (years) 5 Volatility 75.0%Euler's number 2.7183
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The sensitivities displayed to the right for the base-case scenario, which impacts option assumptions, margins, and cashflow addbacks/reductions. The sensitivity analysis shows the value of the option hinges on four inputs: the starting TAM, the CAGR to 2025, the market grows after 2025, and the market share Unity is able to achieve.
The option uses the same discount rate as the whole-company DCF. This is intentional, despite the differing risk profiles between the cash flows. If technological disruption continues rapidly and Unity holds their finger on the pulse of real-time 3D design and development, the upside scenario is not overly costly or risky. I believe that using a probability model where the discount rate is hiked to account for the uncertainty would undervalue the cash flows. What I have done instead is looked at the upside that will result if Unity captures this market, and separately looked at what can happen from now to then to disprove the upside thesis. These risk factors include the following:1) Demand overestimation – If the total addressable market overestimates the practical
use cases of Unity software outside of gaming, the revenue upside will be substantially lower.
2) Technological disruption overestimation – If the growth in the addressable market is lower than estimated, the entry level revenue and growth rate of revenue will be lower.
3) Unity competitive ability – If Unity losses their edge to Epic Games or another competitors, the maximum market share estimation for industries outside of gaming could fall to the single digits. A fleet of new entrants beginning to compete with Unity and Epic would also push down the likely maximum market share.
Valuation - Upside Optionality - Continued
CAGR to 2025##### 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 5.0%50% 12.9B 10.4B 8.3B 6.5B 5.7B 5.0B 3.8B45% 10.3B 8.2B 6.5B 5.1B 4.5B 3.9B 3.0B35% 5.8B 4.6B 3.6B 2.8B 2.5B 2.1B 1.6B25% 2.6B 2.0B 1.6B 1.2B 1.0B 0.9B 0.6B20% 1.5B 1.1B 0.9B 0.7B 0.6B 0.5B 0.3B15% 0.7B 0.5B 0.4B 0.3B 0.2B 0.2B 0.1B10% 0.2B 0.2B 0.1B 0.1B 0.1B 0.1B 0.0B
Market Revenue Growth 2025 - 2034##### 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.0%50% 9.3B 7.6B 6.2B 5.0B 4.8B 4.5B 4.0B45% 7.3B 6.0B 4.9B 3.9B 3.7B 3.5B 3.1B35% 4.1B 3.3B 2.7B 2.1B 2.0B 1.9B 1.7B25% 1.8B 1.4B 1.1B 0.9B 0.8B 0.8B 0.7B20% 1.0B 0.8B 0.6B 0.5B 0.4B 0.4B 0.4B15% 0.4B 0.3B 0.3B 0.2B 0.2B 0.2B 0.2B10% 0.1B 0.1B 0.1B 0.1B 0.0B 0.0B 0.0B
Starting TAM50.0B 40.0B 35.0B 30.0B 25.0B 20.0B 15.0B
###### 4.6B 3.5B 3.0B 2.5B 2.0B 1.5B 1.0B
Option Volatility90% 85% 80% 75% 65% 55% 45%
###### 1.4B 1.3B 1.3B 1.2B 1.1B 0.9B 0.8B
Exercise Price0.5B 1.0B 1.5B 2.0B 4.0B 6.0B 8.0B
###### 1.6B 1.4B 1.3B 1.2B 0.9B 0.8B 0.6B
2031
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The conservative scenario assumes gaming growth continues over the next five years and declines thereafter, with minimal growth in other industries. This scenario captures the cash flows if Unity cannot scale back operating expenses, resulting in only 6.1% EBITDA margins in the terminal period. This scenario also incorporates minimal capture of non-gaming customers. • Gross margin is expected to decline from 79.3% to 78.2% as Unity grows
and spends on software delivery, support, updates, hosting costs, salaries, and other non-cash related expenses.
• R&D is expected to decline modestly from an expected 39.6% to 33.9% of revenue throughout the forecast.
• S&M is expected to decline from an expected 25.1% to 22.3% of revenue throughout the forecast as Unity scales marketing and advertising efforts at a slightly more efficient rate.
• G&A is expected to decline from an expected 17.0% to 15.9% of revenue throughout the forecast as Unity’s legal, accounting, and other general expenses increase slightly less than revenue.
Optionality• Non-gaming TAM is assumed to be 17 billion, growing at 10.0% through
2025 and 4.0% through 2035.• Unity assumed to capture 15.0% by 2031.
Valuation – Conservative Case
Cost of Capital##### 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%6.0% n/a n/a 2.7B 1.2B 0.7B 0.5B 0.3B5.0% n/a 6.2B 1.8B 0.9B 0.6B 0.4B 0.3B4.0% 6.6B 3.0B 1.3B 0.8B 0.5B 0.4B 0.3B3.0% 3.2B 2.0B 1.0B 0.7B 0.5B 0.3B 0.3B2.0% 2.1B 1.5B 0.9B 0.6B 0.4B 0.3B 0.2B1.0% 1.5B 1.1B 0.7B 0.5B 0.4B 0.3B 0.2B0.0% 1.2B 0.9B 0.6B 0.5B 0.3B 0.3B 0.2B
Cost of Capital##### 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%100x 6.2B 5.6B 4.5B 3.6B 2.9B 2.4B 2.0B75x 4.7B 4.2B 3.4B 2.7B 2.2B 1.8B 1.5B60x 3.8B 3.4B 2.7B 2.2B 1.8B 1.5B 1.2B50x 3.2B 2.9B 2.3B 1.9B 1.5B 1.3B 1.0B40x 2.6B 2.3B 1.9B 1.5B 1.3B 1.0B 0.9B30x 2.0B 1.8B 1.5B 1.2B 1.0B 0.8B 0.7B20x 1.4B 1.3B 1.0B 0.9B 0.7B 0.6B 0.5B
Cost of Capital##### 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%12.5x 71.0B 62.3B 48.2B 37.5B 29.3B 23.0B 18.2B10.0x 56.6B 49.6B 38.4B 29.8B 23.3B 18.2B 14.4B7.5x 42.2B 37.0B 28.5B 22.1B 17.2B 13.5B 10.6B5.0x 27.8B 24.3B 18.7B 14.5B 11.3B 8.8B 6.9B4.0x 22.1B 19.3B 14.8B 11.5B 8.9B 6.9B 5.4B3.0x 16.4B 14.3B 11.0B 8.5B 6.6B 5.1B 4.0B2.0x 10.7B 9.4B 7.2B 5.5B 4.3B 3.3B 2.6B
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Valuation – Conservative Case
Total Revenue 12.2B14.5% CAGR 2025-Terminal
Non-Gaming Revenue 6.9B33.1% CAGR 2025-Terminal
Gaming Revenue 5.3B7.2% CAGR 2025-Terminal
Total FCFE 127M0 B
3 B
5 B
8 B
10 B
13 B
2020E 2022E 2024E 2026E 2028E 2030E 2032E 2034E Terminal
Total RevenueNon-Gaming RevenueGaming RevenueTotal FCFE
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The base case scenario assumes continued growth in the gaming market through both Operate Solutions and Create Solutions and assumes that Unity will begin to capture the growth in other industries. This scenario hinges on Unity’s successful transition from a growth-based expansion model to a profit-focused model which successfully reduces R&D, S&M, and G&A as a percentage of revenue. This scenario also incorporates the successful capture of non-gaming customers. • Gross margin is expected to be constant at 79.3% as Unity grows and
spends on software delivery, support, updates, hosting costs, salaries, and other non-cash related expenses.
• R&D is expected to decline from an expected 39.6% to 28.6% of revenue throughout the forecast. Unity’s ability to reduce R&D as a percentage of revenue is paramount to achieving profitability.
• S&M is expected to decline from an expected 25.1% to 19.6% of revenue throughout the forecast as Unity scales marketing and advertising efforts more efficiently and at larger scale.
• G&A is expected to decline from an expected 17.0% to 14.3% of revenue throughout the forecast as Unity’s legal, accounting, and other general expenses increase less than revenue.
Optionality• Non-gaming TAM is assumed to be 17 billion, growing at 15.0% through
2025 and 7.5% through 2035.• Unity assumed to capture 25.0% by 2031.
Valuation – Base Case
Cost of Capital##### 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%6.0% n/a n/a 18.4B 7.6B 4.2B 2.7B 1.9B5.0% n/a 45.9B 12.4B 6.2B 3.7B 2.4B 1.7B4.0% 51.4B 23.1B 9.5B 5.2B 3.3B 2.2B 1.6B3.0% 26.0B 15.6B 7.7B 4.6B 3.0B 2.1B 1.5B2.0% 17.5B 11.9B 6.5B 4.1B 2.7B 1.9B 1.4B1.0% 13.3B 9.7B 5.7B 3.7B 2.5B 1.8B 1.4B0.0% 10.8B 8.2B 5.1B 3.4B 2.4B 1.7B 1.3B
Cost of Capital##### 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%100x 51.0B 45.0B 35.3B 27.8B 22.0B 17.5B 14.0B75x 38.5B 34.0B 26.6B 20.9B 16.6B 13.2B 10.5B60x 30.9B 27.3B 21.4B 16.8B 13.3B 10.6B 8.5B50x 26.0B 22.9B 17.9B 14.1B 11.2B 8.9B 7.1B40x 21.0B 18.5B 14.5B 11.4B 9.0B 7.2B 5.7B30x 16.0B 14.2B 11.1B 8.7B 6.9B 5.5B 4.4B20x 11.1B 9.8B 7.7B 6.1B 4.8B 3.8B 3.1B
Cost of Capital##### 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%12.5x 141.6B 123.5B 94.3B 72.5B 55.9B 43.4B 33.8B10.0x 113.4B 98.9B 75.5B 57.9B 44.7B 34.6B 26.9B7.5x 85.2B 74.2B 56.6B 43.4B 33.4B 25.9B 20.1B5.0x 57.0B 49.6B 37.8B 28.9B 22.2B 17.2B 13.3B4.0x 45.7B 39.8B 30.3B 23.2B 17.8B 13.7B 10.6B3.0x 34.4B 30.0B 22.8B 17.4B 13.3B 10.3B 7.9B2.0x 23.2B 20.2B 15.3B 11.7B 9.0B 6.9B 5.3B
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Valuation – Base Case
Total Revenue 24.2B19.5% CAGR 2025-Terminal
Non-Gaming Revenue 18.1B36.0% CAGR 2025-Terminal
Gaming Revenue 6.0B7.2% CAGR 2025-Terminal
Total FCFE 1.0B0 B
5 B
10 B
15 B
20 B
25 B
2020E 2022E 2024E 2026E 2028E 2030E 2032E 2034E Terminal
Total RevenueNon-Gaming RevenueGaming RevenueTotal FCFE
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The growth scenario assumes continued growth in the gaming market through both Operate Solutions and Create Solutions and assumes that Unity will capture substantial growth in other industries. This scenario hinges on Unity’s successful transition from a growth-based expansion model to a profit-focused model with successful reductions in R&D, S&M, and G&A as a percentage of revenue. This scenario also substantial market capture of non-gaming customers. • Gross margin is expected to increase from 79.3% to 81.5% as Unity realizes
incremental margins of scale on software delivery, updates, hosting costs, and other non-cash related expenses.
• R&D is expected to decline from an expected 39.6% to 21.1% of revenue throughout the forecast. Unity’s ability to reduce R&D as a percentage of revenue is paramount to achieving profitability.
• S&M is expected to decline from an expected 25.0% to 18.0% of revenue throughout the forecast as Unity scales marketing and advertising efforts more efficiently and at larger scale.
• G&A is expected to decline from an expected 16.0% to 10.5% of revenue throughout the forecast as Unity’s legal, accounting, and other general expenses scale back as a percent of revenue
Optionality• Non-gaming TAM is assumed to be 17 billion, growing at 20.0% through
2025 and 10.0% through 2035.• Unity assumed to capture 35.0% by 2031.
Valuation – Growth Case
Cost of Capital##### 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%6.0% n/a n/a 81.0B 33.8B 19.0B 12.0B 8.2B5.0% n/a 200.9B 55.6B 27.9B 16.7B 11.0B 7.7B4.0% 227.8B 103.6B 43.0B 23.9B 15.1B 10.2B 7.2B3.0% 117.4B 71.1B 35.4B 21.1B 13.8B 9.5B 6.8B2.0% 80.6B 54.9B 30.4B 19.0B 12.7B 9.0B 6.5B1.0% 62.3B 45.2B 26.8B 17.3B 11.9B 8.5B 6.2B0.0% 51.2B 38.8B 24.1B 16.0B 11.2B 8.1B 6.0B
Cost of Capital##### 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%100x 227.0B 199.5B 154.8B 120.9B 94.9B 74.9B 59.4B75x 172.2B 151.4B 117.5B 91.7B 72.0B 56.8B 45.0B60x 139.3B 122.5B 95.1B 74.2B 58.2B 46.0B 36.4B50x 117.4B 103.2B 80.1B 62.6B 49.1B 38.7B 30.7B40x 95.5B 84.0B 65.2B 50.9B 40.0B 31.5B 25.0B30x 73.6B 64.7B 50.3B 39.3B 30.9B 24.4B 19.3B20x 51.7B 45.5B 35.4B 27.7B 21.8B 17.2B 13.7B
Cost of Capital##### 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%12.5x 287.9B 250.7B 191.0B 146.3B 112.7B 87.3B 67.9B10.0x 231.9B 201.9B 153.8B 117.9B 90.8B 70.3B 54.7B7.5x 175.8B 153.2B 116.7B 89.4B 68.9B 53.4B 41.5B5.0x 119.8B 104.4B 79.6B 61.0B 47.0B 36.4B 28.3B4.0x 97.4B 84.9B 64.8B 49.7B 38.3B 29.7B 23.1B3.0x 75.0B 65.4B 50.0B 38.3B 29.6B 22.9B 17.9B2.0x 52.6B 46.0B 35.2B 27.0B 20.9B 16.2B 12.7B
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Valuation – Growth Case
Total Revenue 48.3B23.7% CAGR 2025-Terminal
Non-Gaming Revenue 39.6B38.9% CAGR 2025-Terminal
Gaming Revenue 8.8B8.4% CAGR 2025-Terminal
Total FCFE 4.6B0 B
10 B
20 B
30 B
40 B
50 B
2020E 2022E 2024E 2026E 2028E 2030E 2032E 2034E Terminal
Total RevenueNon-Gaming RevenueGaming RevenueTotal FCFE
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Unity has an attractive and simple MOAT as detailed through Porter’s Five Forces. Creators can create simultaneously in Unity Pro in real-time and export across 20 platforms, creating immense benefits for the creators with a high switching cost. Additionally, Unity creates a seamless transition for Create Solutions customers to begin monetizing using Operate Solutions. Unity has wind in the sails with gaming and other industry growth expected to continue going forward. Since the IPO, the market value of equity has increased by over 100%. The three valuation scenarios show that Unity will have a large upside under only the growth scenario, which assumes substantial growth and capture of non-gaming customers. As the market continues to price this in via multiple expansion, the risk of under-execution increases. Unity will remain risky and may fall short of the growth scenario due to any of the below developments:
• Loss of market share to Epic Games.• The early signals would be drop in retention, which is 99% as of June 30, 2020, and a drop in DBNER.
• A lower level of adoption from non-gaming customers, these risks analyzed in the Upside Optionality valuation section.
• An increase in inflation or a general quick recovery “back to normal” in 2021. • This increases small business activity and opportunity cost of capital. Software companies currently benefit from a very low implied
discount rate due to minimal alternative attractive long-term, high-growth investment prospects. The cost of equity can increase as an opportunity cost and natural multiple contraction will occur if other industries have increasingly attractive risk-reward outlooks.
• Federal Reserve rate hikes pre-2023 (priced in timeline) can have a drastically negative impact on the share price of high-multiple technology companies.
• If Unity’s R&D does not begin to decline as a percentage going forward, this would be concerning for free cash flow generation.
Conclusion as of Q3 2020
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The End :)
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sec.gov/edgar• S1 filing• Q3 Earnings
Unity is Manifesting the Metaverse – the S1 Club• Mario Gabriele, Post Market, Courtney Buie-Lipkin, Packy McCormick, Dave Ambrose, Adam Keesling, Patrick O’Shaughnessy, Meera
Clark, Byrne Hobart, and Tina He. • https://thegeneralist.substack.com/p/the-s-1-club-unity-is-manifesting
Unity Software (NYSE: U) Summary Research Report • Christopher Seifel• https://seifelcapital.substack.com/p/unity-software-nyse-u-summary-
research?r=8g8ag&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=copy
Using Real Options in Security Analysis• Michael Mauboussin• http://www.capatcolumbia.com/Articles/FoFinance/Fof10.pdf
Market Research• Grandviewresearch.com• https://newzoo.com/insights/articles/cloud-gaming-business-market-revenues-and-ecosystem/
Sources
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DriversScenario: base Conservative Lower revenue growth, gross margin flat, SG&A margins flat
Base Moderate revenue growth, gross margin flat, SG&A scales as revenue growsGrowth Higher revenue growth, gross margin flat, SG&A scales substantially as R&D spending declines
YTD 3 months YTD 3 months Full Year Remaining 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Income Statement 2018 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q3 2020 LTM 2020 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031ERevenue Growth
Create Solutions 125,539$ 168,626$ 77,570$ 42,943$ 101,787$ 62,784$ 212,684$ 230,059$ 65,488$ 299,077$ 381,323$ 476,654$ 583,901$ 700,681$ 805,783$ 906,506$ 997,156$ 1,071,943$ 1,114,821$ 1,148,266$ Conservative n/a 34.3% nmf nmf 31.2% 46.2% 45.0% 36.4% 42.0% 24.0% 22.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.2% 2.4%Base 52.5% 30.0% 27.5% 25.0% 22.5% 20.0% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 4.0% 3.0%Growth 63.0% 36.0% 33.0% 30.0% 27.0% 24.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 4.8% 3.6%
Operate Solutions 184,405 293,317 137,082 70,000 216,881 120,000 423,116 453,781 116,900 657,982 921,175 1,243,587 1,616,663 2,020,829 2,424,994 2,788,743 3,137,336 3,451,070 3,727,156 3,950,785 Conservative n/a 59.1% nmf nmf 58.2% 71.4% 72.0% 54.7% 53.6% 36.0% 32.0% 28.0% 24.0% 20.0% 16.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.4% 4.8%Base 67.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0%Growth 80.4% 54.0% 48.0% 42.0% 36.0% 30.0% 24.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.6% 7.2%
Strategic Partnerships 70,811 79,836 38,113 18,000 32,657 18,000 74,380 70,457 19,800 73,980 76,939 80,017 83,217 86,546 90,008 93,608 97,352 101,247 105,296 109,508 Conservative n/a 12.7% nmf nmf -14.3% 0.0% 0.0% -11.7% 8.0% 4.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%Base 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%Growth 12.0% 6.0% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
Total Revenue 380,755 541,779 252,765 130,943 351,325 200,784 710,180 754,297 202,188 1,031,039 1,379,437 1,800,257 2,283,781 2,808,055 3,320,785 3,788,857 4,231,845 4,624,260 4,947,273 5,208,559 Growth n/a 42.3% nmf nmf 39.0% 53.3% 31.1% 39.2% 27.9% 36.7% 33.8% 30.5% 26.9% 23.0% 18.3% 14.1% 11.7% 9.3% 7.0% 5.3%
Gross margin - as a % of revenue 302,265 426,380 192,264 104,492 280,272 153,244 563,140 593,842 160,326 817,566 1,093,830 1,427,521 1,810,933 2,226,658 2,633,229 3,004,389 3,355,658 3,666,825 3,922,959 4,130,147 Conservative 79.3% 79.2% 79.1% 79.0% 78.9% 78.8% 78.7% 78.6% 78.5% 78.4% 78.3% 78.2%Base 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3%Growth 79.3% 79.5% 79.7% 79.9% 80.1% 80.3% 80.5% 80.7% 80.9% 81.1% 81.3% 81.5%
% revenue 79.4% 78.7% 76.1% 79.8% 79.8% 76.3% 79.3% 78.7% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3%
SG&AR&D 194,157 239,307 111,537 54,933 153,780 54,842 281,459 288,753 80,131 398,312 519,111 659,471 813,758 972,488 1,116,849 1,236,382 1,338,620 1,416,506 1,465,979 1,491,318
Conservative 51.0% 44.2% 44.1% 42.0% 43.8% 27.3% 39.6% 38.3% 39.6% 38.6% 37.6% 36.6% 36.1% 35.6% 35.1% 34.9% 34.6% 34.4% 34.1% 33.9%Base 39.6% 38.6% 37.6% 36.6% 35.6% 34.6% 33.6% 32.6% 31.6% 30.6% 29.6% 28.6%Growth 37.6% 36.1% 34.6% 33.1% 31.6% 30.1% 28.6% 27.1% 25.6% 24.1% 22.6% 21.1%
S&M 127,081 159,541 72,434 46,559 76,857 60,764 178,169 188,346 50,725 253,511 332,277 424,642 527,276 634,280 733,491 817,933 892,406 952,036 993,802 1,020,245 Conservative 33.4% 29.4% 28.7% 35.6% 21.9% 30.3% 25.1% 25.0% 25.1% 24.8% 24.6% 24.3% 24.1% 23.8% 23.6% 23.3% 23.1% 22.8% 22.6% 22.3%Base 25.1% 24.6% 24.1% 23.6% 23.1% 22.6% 22.1% 21.6% 21.1% 20.6% 20.1% 19.6%Growth 25.0% 24.0% 23.0% 22.0% 21.5% 21.0% 20.5% 20.0% 19.5% 19.0% 18.5% 18.0%
G&A 69,897 102,608 40,552 27,625 60,253 106,241 200,925 200,866 34,372 172,699 227,607 292,542 365,405 442,269 514,722 577,801 634,777 682,078 717,355 742,220 Conservative 18.4% 18.9% 16.0% 21.1% 17.2% 52.9% 28.3% 26.6% 17.0% 16.9% 16.8% 16.7% 16.6% 16.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.2% 16.1% 16.0% 15.9%Base 17.0% 16.8% 16.5% 16.3% 16.0% 15.8% 15.5% 15.3% 15.0% 14.8% 14.5% 14.3%Growth 16.0% 15.5% 15.0% 14.5% 14.0% 13.5% 13.0% 12.5% 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5%
Total SG&A 391,135 501,456 224,523 129,117 290,890 221,847 660,553 677,965 165,228 824,521 1,078,995 1,376,655 1,706,439 2,049,036 2,365,061 2,632,117 2,865,803 3,050,621 3,177,135 3,253,783 % revenue 102.7% 92.6% 88.8% 98.6% 82.8% 110.5% 93.0% 89.9% 81.7% 80.0% 78.2% 76.5% 74.7% 73.0% 71.2% 69.5% 67.7% 66.0% 64.2% 62.5%
EBITDA (88,870) (75,076) (32,259) (24,625) (10,618) (68,603) (97,413) (84,123) (4,902) (6,955) 14,835 50,866 104,493 177,622 268,169 372,273 489,856 616,204 745,824 876,364 % revenue -23.3% -13.9% -12.8% -18.8% -3.0% -34.2% -13.7% -11.2% -2.4% -0.7% 1.1% 2.8% 4.6% 6.3% 8.1% 9.8% 11.6% 13.3% 15.1% 16.8%DRAFT
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Income Statement – Base CaseUnityStatement of IncomeFinancials as of September 30, 2020Analysis as of November 27, 2020
workpaper 1
YTD 3 months YTD 3 months Full Year Remaining 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Income Statement 2018 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q3 2020 LTM 2020E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E TerminalRevenues
Create Solutions 125,539$ 168,626$ 77,570$ 42,943$ 101,787$ 62,784$ 212,684$ 230,059$ 65,488$ 299,077$ 381,323$ 476,654$ 583,901$ 700,681$ 805,783$ 906,506$ 997,156$ 1,071,943$ 1,114,821$ 1,148,266$ % revenue 33.0% 31.1% 30.7% 32.8% 29.0% 31.3% 29.9% 30.5% 32.4% 29.0% 27.6% 26.5% 25.6% 25.0% 24.3% 23.9% 23.6% 23.2% 22.5% 22.0%
Operate Solutions 184,405 293,317 137,082 70,000 216,881 120,000 423,116 453,781 116,900 657,982 921,175 1,243,587 1,616,663 2,020,829 2,424,994 2,788,743 3,137,336 3,451,070 3,727,156 3,950,785 % revenue 48.4% 54.1% 54.2% 53.5% 61.7% 59.8% 59.6% 60.2% 57.8% 63.8% 66.8% 69.1% 70.8% 72.0% 73.0% 73.6% 74.1% 74.6% 75.3% 75.9%
Strategic Partnerships 70,811 79,836 38,113 18,000 32,657 18,000 74,380 70,457 19,800 73,980 76,939 80,017 83,217 86,546 90,008 93,608 97,352 101,247 105,296 109,508 % revenue 18.6% 14.7% 15.1% 13.7% 9.3% 9.0% 10.5% 9.3% 9.8% 7.2% 5.6% 4.4% 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
Total Revenue 380,755 541,779 252,765 130,943 351,325 200,784 710,180 754,297 202,188 1,031,039 1,379,437 1,800,257 2,283,781 2,808,055 3,320,785 3,788,857 4,231,845 4,624,260 4,947,273 5,208,559 5,364,816 Growth n/a 42.3% n/a n/a 39.0% 53.3% 31.1% 39.2% nmf 36.7% 33.8% 30.5% 26.9% 23.0% 18.3% 14.1% 11.7% 9.3% 7.0% 5.3% 3.0%
Cogs 78,490 115,399 60,501 26,451 71,053 47,540 147,040 160,455 41,862 213,473 285,607 372,736 472,848 581,397 687,556 784,468 876,187 957,435 1,024,314 1,078,412 1,110,764 Gross Margin 302,265 426,380 192,264 104,492 280,272 153,244 563,140 593,842 160,326 817,566 1,093,830 1,427,521 1,810,933 2,226,658 2,633,229 3,004,389 3,355,658 3,666,825 3,922,959 4,130,147 4,254,051
% revenue 79.4% 78.7% 76.1% 79.8% 79.8% 76.3% 79.3% 78.7% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3% 79.3%
SG&AR&D 194,157 239,307 111,537 54,933 153,780 54,842 281,459 288,753 80,131 398,312 519,111 659,471 813,758 972,488 1,116,849 1,236,382 1,338,620 1,416,506 1,465,979 1,491,318 S&M 127,081 159,541 72,434 46,559 76,857 60,764 178,169 188,346 50,725 253,511 332,277 424,642 527,276 634,280 733,491 817,933 892,406 952,036 993,802 1,020,245 G&A 69,897 102,608 40,552 27,625 60,253 106,241 200,925 200,866 34,372 172,699 227,607 292,542 365,405 442,269 514,722 577,801 634,777 682,078 717,355 742,220
Total SG&A 391,135 501,456 224,523 129,117 290,890 221,847 660,553 677,965 165,228 824,521 1,078,995 1,376,655 1,706,439 2,049,036 2,365,061 2,632,117 2,865,803 3,050,621 3,177,135 3,253,783 3,351,397 % revenue 102.7% 92.6% 88.8% 98.6% 82.8% 110.5% 93.0% 89.9% 81.7% 80.0% 78.2% 76.5% 74.7% 73.0% 71.2% 69.5% 67.7% 66.0% 64.2% 62.5% 62.5%
EBITDA (88,870) (75,076) (32,259) (24,625) (10,618) (68,603) (97,413) (84,123) (4,902) (6,955) 14,835 50,866 104,493 177,622 268,169 372,273 489,856 616,204 745,824 876,364 902,655 % revenue -23.3% -13.9% -12.8% -18.8% -3.0% -34.2% -13.7% -11.2% -2.4% -0.7% 1.1% 2.8% 4.6% 6.3% 8.1% 9.8% 11.6% 13.3% 15.1% 16.8% 16.8%
Depreciation 16,657 19,543 8,274 8,006 11,716 11,274 26,253 32,097 20,381 40,829 51,313 57,501 52,375 72,545 88,102 106,413 124,893 142,681 158,939 173,286 203,863 Amortization - R&D 400 3,100 1,400 2,300 4,000 Amortization - sales and marketing 3,461 8,470 3,648 5,994 10,816
EBIT (109,388) (106,189) (45,581) (32,631) (30,628) (79,877) (138,482) (132,129) (32,898) (60,234) (47,678) (16,257) 42,686 100,977 176,666 265,859 364,962 473,523 586,885 703,078 698,792 % revenue -28.7% -19.6% -18.0% -24.9% -8.7% -39.8% -19.5% -17.5% -16.3% -5.8% -3.5% -0.9% 1.9% 3.6% 5.3% 7.0% 8.6% 10.2% 11.9% 13.5% 13.0%
Stock based compensation (20,913) (44,480) (14,776) (9,101) (21,654) (61,806) (104,063) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aOther income (2,327) (2,573) (686) (1,808) 1,194 (2,023) (908) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aInterest expense - - - - (788) (615) (1,403) (788) - - - - - - - - - - - - -
EBT (132,628) (153,242) (61,043) (43,540) (51,876) (144,321) (244,856) (132,917) (32,898) (60,234) (47,678) (16,257) 42,686 100,977 176,666 265,859 364,962 473,523 586,885 703,078 698,792
Taxes (based on EBT + interest) (1,026) 9,948 6,019 2,009 2,211 398 4,529 (36,100) (8,883) (16,263) (12,873) (4,389) 11,525 27,264 47,700 71,782 98,540 127,851 158,459 189,831 188,674
Net income (131,602) (163,190) (67,062) (45,549) (54,087) (144,719) (249,385) (96,817) (24,016) (43,971) (34,805) (11,868) 31,161 73,713 128,966 194,077 266,422 345,672 428,426 513,247 510,118
15,909 - - 7,615 12,450 11,200 9,622 9,432 4,100 3,401 - - - -
DRAFT
/jacknsuch
Balance Sheet – Base CaseUnityBalance SheetFinancials as of September 30, 2020Analysis as of November 27, 2020
workpaper 2
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Balance Sheet 2018 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031EAssets
Current assetsCash 258,731$ 129,959$ 129,959$ 453,258$ 1,759,415$ 493,921$ 463,826$ 486,126$ 527,630$ 578,303$ 661,055$ 781,965$ 949,710$ 1,179,219$ 1,477,432$ 1,849,306$ 2,300,002$ Accounts receivable 152,481 204,898 204,898 219,479 225,525 247,988 331,910 434,617 554,874 703,905 865,497 1,023,530 1,167,799 1,304,336 1,425,286 1,524,844 1,605,378 Prepaid expenses 13,516 23,142 23,142 27,715 26,068 30,508 37,103 48,555 61,949 76,790 92,207 106,428 118,445 128,961 137,278 142,971 146,420 Other current assets 13,898 9,418 9,418 21,251 19,968 22,629 30,931 41,383 54,008 68,513 84,242 99,624 113,666 126,955 138,728 148,418 156,257
Total current assets 438,626 367,417 367,417 721,703 2,030,976 795,047 863,770 1,010,681 1,198,461 1,427,511 1,703,000 2,011,546 2,349,619 2,739,471 3,178,723 3,665,539 4,208,057
Fixed assetsPP&E 67,866 78,976 78,976 86,984 89,930 95,318 94,699 95,804 106,713 141,122 175,283 213,371 250,934 286,851 319,892 348,950 373,589
Net fixed assets 67,866 78,976 78,976 86,984 89,930 95,318 94,699 95,804 106,713 141,122 175,283 213,371 250,934 286,851 319,892 348,950 373,589
Other assetsOperating leases - - n/a 116,011 108,878 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aGoodwill 45,407 218,305 218,305 263,050 271,200 271,200 271,200 271,200 271,200 271,200 271,200 271,200 271,200 271,200 271,200 271,200 271,200 Intangible assets 9,104 62,034 62,034 57,820 59,269 51,654 39,204 28,004 18,382 8,950 4,850 1,449 1,449 1,449 1,449 1,449 1,449 Restricted assets 14,542 17,137 17,137 22,409 22,409 22,409 22,409 22,409 22,409 22,409 22,409 22,409 22,409 22,409 22,409 22,409 22,409 Other assets 13,756 18,991 18,991 21,107 23,034 23,034 23,034 23,034 23,034 23,034 23,034 23,034 23,034 23,034 23,034 23,034 23,034
Total other assets 82,809 316,467 316,467 480,397 484,790 368,297 355,847 344,647 335,025 325,593 321,493 318,092 318,092 318,092 318,092 318,092 318,092
Total assets 589,301 762,860 762,860 1,289,084 2,605,696 1,258,661 1,314,316 1,451,132 1,640,200 1,894,226 2,199,775 2,543,009 2,918,646 3,344,415 3,816,707 4,332,581 4,899,738
Current liabilitiesAccounts payable 9,336 10,706 10,706 12,258 7,856 10,990 14,621 19,562 25,530 32,387 39,822 47,093 53,731 60,013 65,578 70,158 73,864 Accrued expenses 49,385 66,463 66,463 71,279 86,954 91,525 111,310 145,664 185,848 230,369 276,620 319,283 355,336 386,883 411,834 428,913 439,261 Publisher payable 117,490 137,664 137,664 139,335 151,143 183,051 222,621 291,329 371,697 460,739 553,240 638,566 710,671 773,767 823,668 857,827 878,521 Taxes payable 22,558 35,715 35,715 40,416 41,587 47,458 57,716 75,530 96,366 119,451 143,433 165,554 184,248 200,606 213,543 222,399 227,765 Deferred revenue 54,967 85,980 85,980 92,627 97,910 122,034 148,414 194,219 247,798 307,159 368,826 425,711 473,781 515,844 549,112 571,884 585,681 Operating lease liabilities - - - 25,887 24,363 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total current liabilities 253,736 336,528 336,528 381,802 409,813 455,057 554,683 726,304 927,239 1,150,105 1,381,940 1,596,208 1,777,767 1,937,114 2,063,734 2,151,182 2,205,092
Long-term liabilitiesLong-term debt - - - 124,449 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Long-term deferred revenue 10,542 10,596 10,596 14,963 16,531 16,531 24,000 32,109 41,905 53,160 65,364 77,299 88,194 98,505 107,640 115,159 121,241 Long-term operating lease liabilities - - n/a 106,651 101,875 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aOther long-term liabilities 8,896 21,825 21,825 13,804 17,571 17,571 25,510 34,130 44,541 56,504 69,476 82,162 93,742 104,703 114,412 122,404 128,868
Total long-term liabilities 19,438 32,421 32,421 259,867 135,977 34,102 49,509 66,239 86,446 109,664 134,839 159,460 181,936 203,208 222,051 237,562 250,109
Total liabilities 273,174 368,949 368,949 641,669 545,790 489,159 604,192 792,543 1,013,685 1,259,769 1,516,780 1,755,668 1,959,704 2,140,322 2,285,786 2,388,744 2,455,201
Total equity 316,127 393,911 393,911 647,415 2,059,906 769,502 710,124 658,590 626,514 634,457 682,995 787,341 958,942 1,204,093 1,530,921 1,943,837 2,444,537
Total liabilities & equity 589,301 762,860 762,860 1,289,084 2,605,696 1,258,661 1,314,316 1,451,132 1,640,200 1,894,226 2,199,775 2,543,009 2,918,646 3,344,415 3,816,707 4,332,581 4,899,738
DRAFT
/jacknsuch
Cash Flow Statement – Base CaseUnity
Statement of Cash Flows
Financials as of September 30, 2020
Analysis as of November 27, 2020
workpaper 3
YTD 3 months YTD 3 months Remaining 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Cash flows 2018 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Net income (131,602)$ (163,190)$ (67,062)$ (45,549)$ (54,087)$ (144,719)$ (24,016)$ (43,971)$ (34,805)$ (11,868)$ 31,161$ 73,713$ 128,966$ 194,077$ 266,422$ 345,672$ 428,426$ 513,247$
Operating cash flow
Depreciation 16,657 19,543 8,274 5,233 11,716 6,523 8,665 40,829 51,313 57,501 52,375 72,545 88,102 106,413 124,893 142,681 158,939 173,286
Amortization of intangible assets 3,861 11,570 5,048 2,742 8,294 4,751 7,615 12,450 11,200 9,622 9,432 4,100 3,401 - - - - -
Amortization of debt issuance costs - - - 66 31 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Common stock charitable donation - - - - - 63,615 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
(Gain)/loss on sale of asset 789 133 - 157 464 94 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Stock-based compensation 20,913 44,480 14,776 9,101 21,654 61,806 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Impairment of assets - - 863 - n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Change in net working capital 8,323 19,528 19,208 (20,756) (4,389) 28,466 40,043 807 47,010 54,659 44,488 39,099 26,631 11,231 (996) (14,418) (27,495) (37,911)
Cash flow from operations (81,059) (67,936) (19,756) (49,072) (15,419) 20,567 32,307 10,115 74,719 109,915 137,456 189,458 247,100 311,721 390,319 473,935 559,870 648,622
Investing cash flow
Purchase of PP&E (38,019) (27,035) (9,805) (6,637) (19,275) (9,681) (14,053) (40,211) (52,419) (68,410) (86,784) (106,706) (126,190) (143,977) (160,810) (175,722) (187,996) (197,925)
Acqusitions of intangibles - - - - (750) - n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Business acquisitions (2,024) (192,506) (117,207) (36,824) (23,338) (11,630) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Cash flow from investing activities (40,043) (219,541) (127,012) (43,461) (43,363) (21,311) (14,053) (40,211) (52,419) (68,410) (86,784) (106,706) (126,190) (143,977) (160,810) (175,722) (187,996) (197,925)
Financing cash flow
Proceeds from revolver - (370) - - 125,000 (125,000) - - - - - - - - - - - -
Payments from debt issuance costs - - - - (247) - - - - - - - - - - - -
Proceeds - issuance of convertible stock 144,948 124,918 124,918 - 149,970 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Proceeds - issuance of common stock - 460,200 100,000 255,882 100,000 1,420,145 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Repo/retirement of convertible stock - (148,714) - (48,714) - n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Purchase/retirement of treasury stock - (286,375) - (282,167) (110) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Proceeds from exercise of stock options 3,303 11,813 3,061 7,821 12,792 11,523 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Cash flow from financing activities 148,251 161,472 227,979 (67,178) 387,405 1,306,668 - - - - - - - - - - - -
Forex cash impact (8) (172) (40) (287) (52) 233 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Cash beginning 246,132 273,273 273,273 354,444 147,096 475,667 475,667 493,921 463,826 486,126 527,630 578,303 661,055 781,965 949,710 1,179,219 1,477,432 1,849,306
Change in cash 27,141 (126,177) 81,171 (159,998) 328,571 1,306,157 18,254 (30,095) 22,300 41,505 50,673 82,752 120,910 167,745 229,509 298,213 371,874 450,696
Cash end 273,273 147,096 354,444 194,446 475,667 1,781,824 493,921 463,826 486,126 527,630 578,303 661,055 781,965 949,710 1,179,219 1,477,432 1,849,306 2,300,002
DRAFT
/jacknsuch
Capital Expenditures & Depreciation – Base CaseUnityCapital Expenditures and DepreciationFinancials as of September 30, 2020Analysis as of November 27, 2020
workpaper 4
3 months YTD 3 months Remaining 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Fixed assets 2018 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E Terminal
Leasehold improvements 44,311 52,647 56,536 Computer and other hardware 30,598 42,264 49,562 Furniture 18,295 21,416 23,370 Internally developed software 2,891 2,964 3,132 Purchased software 1,127 1,325 1,335 Construction in progress 2,371 6,645 12,159
Total fixed assets, gross 99,593 127,261 146,094 Accumulated depreciation 31,727 48,285 59,110
Total fixed assets, net 67,866 78,976 78,976 86,984 89,930 95,318 94,699 95,804 106,713 141,122 175,283 213,371 250,934 286,851 319,892 348,950 373,589
Starting fixed assets 46,504 67,866 78,976 78,976 86,984 89,930 95,318 94,699 95,804 106,713 141,122 175,283 213,371 250,934 286,851 319,892 348,950 Plus: purchase of PP&E (a) 38,019 27,035 6,637 19,275 9,681 14,053 40,211 52,419 68,410 86,784 106,706 126,190 143,977 160,810 175,722 187,996 197,925 203,863 Less: depreciation 16,657 19,543 5,233 11,716 6,523 8,665 40,829 51,313 57,501 52,375 72,545 88,102 106,413 124,893 142,681 158,939 173,286 203,863 Plus: M&A/off-cash flow activity n/a 3,618 (1,404) 449 (212) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Ending fixed assets 67,866 78,976 78,976 86,984 89,930 95,318 94,699 95,804 106,713 141,122 175,283 213,371 250,934 286,851 319,892 348,950 373,589
Useful lives3 yrs Existing fixed assets5 yrs Capital expenditures
Depreciation 2018 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031EExisting fixed assets 7,494 29,977 29,977 22,483 - - - - - - - -
0 Capital expenditures - 2020E 1,171 2,811 2,811 2,811 2,811 1,640 - - - - - - 1 Capital expenditures - 2021E 8,042 8,042 8,042 8,042 8,042 - - - - - - 2 Capital expenditures - 2022E 10,484 10,484 10,484 10,484 10,484 - - - - - 3 Capital expenditures - 2023E 13,682 13,682 13,682 13,682 13,682 - - - - 4 Capital expenditures - 2024E 17,357 17,357 17,357 17,357 17,357 - - - 5 Capital expenditures - 2025E 21,341 21,341 21,341 21,341 21,341 - - 6 Capital expenditures - 2026E 25,238 25,238 25,238 25,238 25,238 - 7 Capital expenditures - 2027E 28,795 28,795 28,795 28,795 28,795 8 Capital expenditures - 2028E 32,162 32,162 32,162 32,162 9 Capital expenditures - 2029E 35,144 35,144 35,144 # Capital expenditures - 2030E 37,599 37,599 # Capital expenditures - 2031E 39,585 Depreciation 16,657 19,543 11,716 8,665 40,829 51,313 57,501 52,375 72,545 88,102 106,413 124,893 142,681 158,939 173,286
DRAFT
/jacknsuch
Net Working Capital – Base CaseUnityNet Working CapitalFinancials as of September 30, 2020Analysis as of November 27, 2020
workpaper 5
3 months YTD 3 months Remaining 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Current assets 2018 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E Terminal
Accounts receivable 152,481 204,898 204,898 219,479 225,525 247,988 331,910 434,617 554,874 703,905 865,497 1,023,530 1,167,799 1,304,336 1,425,286 1,524,844 1,605,378 Days' sales outstanding 146 138 146 133 116 120 118 115 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113
Prepaid expenses 13,516 23,142 23,142 27,715 26,068 30,508 37,103 48,555 61,949 76,790 92,207 106,428 118,445 128,961 137,278 142,971 146,420 As a percentage of SG&A 3.5% 4.6% 4.9% 5.4% 3.9% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Other current assets 13,898 9,418 9,418 21,251 19,968 22,629 30,931 41,383 54,008 68,513 84,242 99,624 113,666 126,955 138,728 148,418 156,257 As a percentage of revenue 3.7% 1.7% 1.8% 3.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Total current assets, pre-cash 179,895 237,458 237,458 268,445 271,561 301,125 399,944 524,555 670,831 849,208 1,041,945 1,229,581 1,399,909 1,560,252 1,701,291 1,816,234 1,908,055
3 months YTD 3 months RemainingCurrent assets 2018 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Accounts payable 9,336 10,706 10,706 12,258 7,856 10,990 14,621 19,562 25,530 32,387 39,822 47,093 53,731 60,013 65,578 70,158 73,864 Days' payables outstanding 43 34 34 34 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Accrued expenses 49,385 66,463 66,463 71,279 86,954 91,525 111,310 145,664 185,848 230,369 276,620 319,283 355,336 386,883 411,834 428,913 439,261 As a percentage of SG&A 12.6% 13.3% 14.1% 13.8% 13.2% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Publisher payable 117,490 137,664 137,664 139,335 151,143 183,051 222,621 291,329 371,697 460,739 553,240 638,566 710,671 773,767 823,668 857,827 878,521 As a percentage of SG&A 30.0% 27.5% 29.2% 27.0% 22.9% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%
Taxes payable 22,558 35,715 35,715 40,416 41,587 47,458 57,716 75,530 96,366 119,451 143,433 165,554 184,248 200,606 213,543 222,399 227,765 As a percentage of SG&A 5.8% 7.1% 7.6% 7.8% 6.3% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Deferred revenue 54,967 85,980 85,980 92,627 97,910 122,034 148,414 194,219 247,798 307,159 368,826 425,711 473,781 515,844 549,112 571,884 585,681 As a percentage of SG&A 14.1% 17.1% 18.2% 18.0% 14.8% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
Total current liabilities, pre-debt/leases 253,736 336,528 336,528 355,915 385,450 455,057 554,683 726,304 927,239 1,150,105 1,381,940 1,596,208 1,777,767 1,937,114 2,063,734 2,151,182 2,205,092
Net working capital (73,841) (99,070) (99,070) (87,470) (113,889) (153,932) (154,738) (201,749) (256,408) (300,896) (339,996) (366,627) (377,858) (376,861) (362,443) (334,948) (297,037) (305,948) As a percentage of revenue -19.4% -18.3% -19.4% -14.5% -16.0% -20.4% -15.0% -14.6% -14.2% -13.2% -12.1% -11.0% -10.0% -8.9% -7.8% -6.8% -5.7% -5.7%
Change in net working capital n/a (25,229) - 11,600 (26,419) (40,043) (807) (47,010) (54,659) (44,488) (39,099) (26,631) (11,231) 996 14,418 27,495 37,911 (8,911)
DRAFT
/jacknsuch
DCF – Base CaseUnity
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Financials as of September 30, 2020
Analysis as of November 27, 2020
workpaper 6
Remaining 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
DCF 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E Terminal
Cash Flow from Operations 32,307 10,115 74,719 109,915 137,456 189,458 247,100 311,721 390,319 473,935 559,870 648,622 722,892
Less: capital expenditures 14,053 40,211 52,419 68,410 86,784 106,706 126,190 143,977 160,810 175,722 187,996 197,925 203,863
Plus: Proceeds from new debt - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCFE 18,254 (30,095) 22,300 41,505 50,673 82,752 120,910 167,745 229,509 298,213 371,874 450,696 519,029
Terminal cash flow 7,414,703
Present value factor 0.13 1.13 2.13 3.13 4.13 5.13 6.13 7.13 8.13 9.13 10.13 11.13
Discount rate 10.0%
Long-term growth rate 3.0%
PV of FCFE 18,038 (27,035) 18,211 30,814 34,200 50,774 67,442 85,060 105,800 124,974 141,676 156,096 2,568,030
Equity cash flows 806,049 17.6%
Equity terminal 2,568,030 56.2% 3.0% Gordon Growth
Equity Option value 1,195,679 26.2%
Market value of equity 4,569,758 100.0%
Equity cash flows 806,049 5.7%
Equity terminal 8,988,106 63.7% 50.00 Exit P/FCFE
Equity Option value 4,317,559 30.6%
Market value of equity 14,111,714 100.0%
Equity cash flows 806,049 2.8%
Equity terminal 9,019,739 31.2% 5.00 Exit Revenue/Equity
Equity Option value 19,101,487 66.0%
Market value of equity 28,927,274 100.0% DRAFT
/jacknsuch
OPM – Base CaseUnity
Real World Options - Non-gaming Market Potential
Financials as of September 30, 2020
Analysis as of November 27, 2020
in 000's workpaper 8
Non-gaming TAM today 17.0B5 yr CAGR (tech growth, adaption, new entrants) 15%
Non-gaming total addressable market in 2025 34.2B
Non-gaming DCF 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E
Non-Gaming Market Revenue 34.2B 36.8B 39.5B 42.5B 45.7B 49.1B 52.8B 56.7B 61.0B 65.6B 70.5BGrowth 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
Unity market share/reach 1.8% 3.6% 7.2% 12.0% 16.0% 20.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Revenue captured 0.6B 1.3B 2.8B 5.1B 7.3B 9.8B 13.2B 14.2B 15.2B 16.4B 17.6B
EBITDA 0.0B 0.1B 0.3B 0.5B 0.9B 1.4B 2.2B 2.4B 2.6B 2.8B 3.0BEBITDA % 4.3% 6.1% 9.7% 10.1% 12.3% 14.1% 16.3% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8%
Net income (no interest) 0.0B 0.0B 0.1B 0.3B 0.5B 0.8B 1.3B 1.4B 1.5B 1.6B 1.7B
FCFE 0.0B 0.0B 0.0B 0.0B 0.1B 0.2B 0.3B 0.3B 0.4B 0.4B 0.4B
Discount rate 10.0%
Long-term growth rate 3.0%
Sum of PV FCFE 2.0B 3.0% Gordon Growth Value of Call Option - Gordon Growth 1.2B
Sum of PV FCFE 5.5B 50.00 Exit P/FCFE Value of Call Option - 50 Exit P/FCFE 4.3B
Sum of PV FCFE 20.7B 5.00 Exit Revenue/Equity Value of Call Option - 5 Exit Rev/Equity 19.1B
Black-Scholes - Inputs Black-Scholes - Output
Security price 2.0B d1 0.8831 Exercise price 2.0B d2 (0.7940) Risk-free rate 2.0% N(d1) 0.8114 Dividend yield 0.0% N(d2) 0.2136 Cost of carry (rf-dividend yield) 2.0% Value of Call Option 1.2B
Maturity (years) 5 Volatility 75.0%Euler's number 2.7183
DRAFT
/jacknsuch
Began investing in assisted artistry tools in 2017 and areas beyond gaming in 2018.
Artistry Tools• Art Engine – 3D content creation tool which enables A.I. for hyper-realistic artwork. • Granite – Loading system for textures which manages large data automatically and efficiently.
Solution for Industries Beyond Gaming • Unity Reflect – Launched in 2019, Reflect enables users to transfer Building Information
Modeling into Unity to work with the 3D real-time experience, including AR and VR. This opens the door for simultaneous editing for architecture, engineering, and construction creators and designers.
• Unity MARS – Professional-grade solutions for AR and VR development. MARS utilizes environment feedback and sensor data for context-aware and responsive application builds.
• Unity Forma – Launching in 2020, Forma offers a toolkit for creators to offer advanced real-time 3D marketing solution to their customers. This is especially pertinent for marketing in auto and retail customers.
Create Solutions – Continued
DRAFT
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End-User Engagement Services• DeltaDNA - used to measure lifetime value (LTV) of customer. Analytics tools,
automated predictive tools to increase LTV, ML driven analytics, for IAP and LTV, and dynamic ad placement tools. DeltaDNA revenue is based on usage.
• GameTune - Data science and ML tools for customers to manage end-user engagement.
Cloud Services• Multiplay - Multiplayer hosting (back end management), usage based revenue.• Vivox - Player-to-player communications in game, usage based revenue (based on peak
monthly customers). • Cloud Content Delivery - Deliver optimization service for end-user. • Build Server - Offload service allowing Unity projects to be built on network hardware.• Simulations - GameSim for gameplay simulation pre-launch, and Unity Simulation for
other industries to test complex scenarios and concepts.
Operate Solutions - Continued
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Partnerships allow creators to deploy games/applications to devices/platforms without coding. Custom contracts include deep technology collaborations, development service agreements, and revenue share agreements.
Strategic Partnerships
• Apple
• Autodesk
• ARM
• Google & DeepMind
• Intel
• Microsoft
• Nintendo
• Samsung
• Sony
• Tencent
Partners
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Acquisition focus is on small vertically-integrated toolsets.Goal of adding key functionality, innovative talent, and creating ”one-stop shop” for customers.
• Applifier and Playnomics - 2014• Set up the structure for the Operate Solutions service.
• Multiplay – 2017• Software which chooses hosting alternatives in real time, improves cloud
based game experience and scalability.
• Vivox – 2019• Voice and text hosting service for gaming which enables communications
across platforms for use with Create Solutions.
• +120M monthly end-users.
Notable Acquisitions
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Sequoia Capital• Sequoia is Unity’s first business partner in May 2009 and has lead additional
equity rounds in 2018 and 2019. Sequoia is the largest shareholder, owning ~57.5 million shares of Unity’s common stock.
Silver Lake• Silver Lake invested in Unity in 2017, has increased their holdings in latter
equity rounds in 2018 and 2019. Silver Lake owns ~43 million shares of Unity’s common stock.
• Canada Pension Plan Investment Board• China Investment Incorporation• D1 Capital Partners • DFJ
• FreeS Fund• Light Street Capital• Thrive Capital• WestSummit Capital Partners
Additional Private Placement Investors
VC Investors
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Executive Management
John RiccitielloPresident, CEO, Chairman of BoD
Joined Unity in 2013
CEO of EA
- 2007 – 2013
Elevation Partners, LLC
- 2004 – 2007
- Founding Partner of P.E. firm
COO & President of EA
- 1997 – 2004
BS in Business - UC, Berkley
Brett BibbySenior VP, CPO
Chief Product Officer since February 2020
Unity VP of Engineering
- 2014 – 2020
Joined Unity in 2012
Various Engineering & leadership roles
- 1990 – 2012
BS in Business
- CSU, Sacramento
AS in Electronic Engineering
- American River College
Clive DownieSenior VP, CMO
Chief Marketing Officer since 2015
Zynga COO
- 2013 – 2015
DeNA West CEO
- 2012 – 2013
Previous leadership roles at-
- ngmoco
- EA
- Mattel
Ralph HauwertSenior VP, R&D
SVP of R&D since February 2020
Unity VP of Platform for R&D
- 2018 – 2020
Unity/subsidiary Director of Development
- 2015 – 2018
Unity Team Lead/Senior Develop
- 2011 – 2015
Developer roles at various companies
- 1999 – 2011
Kimberly JabalSenior VP, CFO
Unity SVP & CFO since March 2019
Weebly CFO
- 2015 – 2018
Path CFO
- 2013 – 2015
Developer roles at various companies
- 1999 – 2011
Serves on BoD of FedEx
BS in Engineering – University of Illinois
MBA - Harvard
Ruth Ann KeeneSenior VP, CLO
SVP & CLO since September 2016
Autodesk CFO
- 2005 – 2016
Morrison & Foerster LLP, Attorney
- 1998 – 2005
BA in History – Cornell
J.D. – Cornell Law
Ingrid LestiyoSenior VP & GM, Operate Solutions
SVP & GM, Operate since August 2020
VP/SVP & GM, Monetization
- 2016 – 2020
Rubicon Project SVP
- 2012 – 2016
Mobsmith Co-founder
- Acquired by Rubicon Project
- 2009 – 2012
BA & Masters in Engineering – U CambridgeMBA - Harvard
Dave RhodesSenior VP & GM, Create Solutions
SVP & GM, Create since April 2020
Unity Chief Revenue Officer
- 2017 – 2020
Paradigm B.V. EVP
- 2014 – 2017
Autodesk VP, amongst other roles
- 2003 – 2014
BA in CompSci – U.C. San Diego
MBA – U.C. San Diego
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Additional Management
Joachim AnteCo-Founder, CTO
Unity Co-Founder & CTO- 2004 – Present
Unity BoD- 2004 – 2020
Luc BartheletSenior VP, Technology
SVP, Technology since 2020Unity VP & GM, Cloud Services- 2018 – 2020
Captain of Makena (sailing) - 2014 - 2018
EA various leadership roles- 1988 - 2008
Version Soft President & Cero- 1984 - 1987
Masters in Engineering - ESTP
Sylvio DrouinSenior VP, Research Labs
SVP, Research Labs since 2015Unity Strategic Advisor- 2010 – 2015
Bitlogicia Co-Founder & CEO- 2012 – 2015
Previous leadership & software roles at-- 1988 - 2012
Scott PitaskySenior VP, CPO
Chief People Officer since 2020Amazon VP of HR – Worldwide Commerce- 2017 – 2020
Starbucks Chief Partner Resources Officer- 2014 – 2017
Various leadership roles and Microsoft- 2001 – 2014
Developer roles at various companies- 1999 – 2011
BS in Economics - Wharton
Danny LangeSenior VP, AI & Machine Learning
SVP, AI/ML since 2016Uber Head of ML- 2015 – 2016
Amazon GM for Machine Learning- 2014 – 2015
MS & PhD in CompSci- Technical University of Denmark DRAFT
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Board of Directors
Roelof BothaBoD since 2009
Sequoia, Partner- 2003 - Present
PayPal CFO- 2000 – 2003
BoD: Evenbrite, Natera, Square, MongoDB, various private companies
COO & President of EA- 1997 – 2004
BS in Actuarial Science, Econ, & Stats- University of Cape Town
MBA - Stanford
Egon DurbanBoD since 2017
Silver Lake, Founding Partner- 1999 - Present
BoD: Twitter, Dell, various private companiesBS in Business – Georgetown University
David HelgasonBoD since 2007 (break from June 2014 – May 2015)
Unity, President, CEO, & Co-Founder- 2004 - 2014
Nordic Markers General Partners, Partner- 2016 – Current
BoD: Various private companiesPhysics, Arabic, & Psychology
- University of Copenhagen
Alyssa HenryBoD since 2018
Square, Seller Lead & other roles- 2014 - Present
Amazon, VP of Web Services & other roles- 2006 – 2014
BoD: Intel
BS in Mathematics & Applied Science- UCLA
Barry SchulerBoD since 2016
Draper Fisher Jurveston, Co-Founder- 2006 - Present
America Online Inc. Chairman & CEO- 1995 – 2002
BoD: Various private companiesBA in Psychology- Rutgers University
Robynne SiscoBoD since 2017
Workday, Co-President & CFO & other roles- 2012 - Present
Alumni: VMware, VeriSign, Oracle, Visa, GE Capital, & FordCOO & President of EA- 1997 – 2004
BA in Econ & Accounting- Claremont McKenna College
MBA – Golden State University
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