NWS Hydrologic Services NWS Hydrologic Services Program Program

FEMA WorkshopFEMA WorkshopMay 5, 2011May 5, 2011

Patricia BrownPatricia BrownSenior Service HydrologistSenior Service Hydrologist

NWS WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge LANWS WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge LA

A Lot of Water!A Lot of Water!NOAA - An Integrated PerspectiveNOAA - An Integrated Perspective

Rivers & Streams

Reservoirs & Lakes

Wetlands

Estuaries

Coasts

Gulf of Mexico

Soil Moisture

Ground Water

Water Quality

•NOAA Satellites and InformationNOAA Satellites and Information •NOAA Fisheries•NOAA Fisheries•NOAA Ocean Service •NOAA Ocean Service •NOAA Research•NOAA Research•NOAA Office of Marine & Aviation •NOAA Office of Marine & Aviation OperationsOperations •NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICENOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

NWS National Hydrologic NWS National Hydrologic ServicesServices

• The Office of Hydrologic DevelopmentThe Office of Hydrologic Development– Plan, develop, demonstrate, and integrate scientific Plan, develop, demonstrate, and integrate scientific

techniques and software capabilities for the Hydrologic techniques and software capabilities for the Hydrologic Services Program Services Program

• Office of Climate, Water, and Weather ServicesOffice of Climate, Water, and Weather Services– Hydrologic Service DivisionHydrologic Service Division

•Hydrologic Service BranchHydrologic Service Branch

•Hydrologic Support BranchHydrologic Support Branch

•National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing CenterNational Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

NWS Hydrology Field OfficesNWS Hydrology Field Offices

• National Centers for Environmental PredictionNational Centers for Environmental Prediction– Hydrometeorogical Prediction Center (HPC)Hydrometeorogical Prediction Center (HPC)– Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)– Storm Prediction Center (SPC)Storm Prediction Center (SPC)– Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

• River Forecast CeRiver Forecast Center Hydrology Field Worknter Hydrology Field Work– 13 River Forecast Centers13 River Forecast Centers

• Weather Forecast Office Hydrology Field WorkWeather Forecast Office Hydrology Field Work– 122 Weather Offices 122 Weather Offices

NWS Hydrologic Services ProgramNWS Hydrologic Services Program

National Products Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)  Storm Prediction Center (SPC)  National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Major River Basins• Arkansas-Red Basin RFC• Lower Mississippi RFC• Southeast RFC• West Gulf RFC

Forecast PointsNWFO New Orleans/

Baton Rouge High Resolution Grids

NWFO New Orleans/

Baton Rouge

Service Hydrologist Contact by MS Service Hydrologist Contact by MS CountyCounty

WFO HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREAWFO HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREA(HSA)(HSA)

NWFO New Orleans/BatonNWFO New Orleans/BatonRouge’s HSA Rouge’s HSA

• Does not include:Does not include:Red RiverRed RiverHomochitto RiverHomochitto River

• Includes Atchafalaya Includes Atchafalaya RiverRiverin the following Parishes:in the following Parishes:

AvoyellesAvoyellesSt. LandrySt. LandrySt. MartinSt. MartinIberiaIberiaSt. MarySt. Mary

Location, Location, Location!Location, Location, Location! Terrain!Terrain!

Elevation at HammondElevation at Hammond44 Feet44 Feet

Elevation Elevation at Slidellat Slidell 9 Feet9 Feet

Fort Massachusetts, MSFort Massachusetts, MS 0 Feet0 Feet

Elevation at Elevation at Carriere, MS Carriere, MS 98 Feet98 Feet

Elevation Elevation at Port at Port Vincent Vincent 7 Feet7 Feet

WFO New Orleans/Baton RougeWFO New Orleans/Baton RougeHydrology Program GoalsHydrology Program Goals

Flash Flood ForecastsFlash Flood Monitoring and Prediction Deliver improved dam failure flood forecasts

Short- To Long-Term River ForecastsDeliver accurate flood forecasts and statements along our major riversProvide accurate and timely planning tools, i.e., Contingency River ForecastsProvide accurate and timely Hydrologic Outlooks

Graphical Dissemination of Hydrologic InformationProvide accurate and current Web-based products and graphicsRespond to user needs for products, as appropriate

Hydrologic InformationProvide accurate and current text productsProvide accurate and current drought information, as necessary

HydrologicForecastServices

Valuable Information to Satisfy Diverse NWS Partner and Customer Needs

Radar Data

River Gauge Data Weather Observations

Snow Cover/Melt Data

PrecipitationForecasts

Climate PredictionsReservoirReleases

PrecipitationEstimates

Satellite Data

Leveraging GovernmentLeveraging GovernmentInfrastructure and ExpertiseInfrastructure and Expertise

AHPSAHPS

                                                                                                                   

                                                                                                                                  

Hydrologic Outlook Longer term forecast information on floods.

River Flood Warning River flooding is occurring or imminent.

River Flood Statement Updates River Flood Warning information.

Flash Flood Warning Flash Flooding is occurring or imminent.

Flash Flood Statement Updates Flash Flood Warning information.

Flood Advisory Nuisance flooding is occurring or imminent.

Various Warnings and Statements issued by WFO

STAGE 05/03 – 52.16 FT AT 5:00 AM CDTSTAGE 05/03 – 52.16 FT AT 5:00 AM CDT ALL RIVER ISLANDS TO BATON ROUGE, RECREATIONAL CAMPS ALL RIVER ISLANDS TO BATON ROUGE, RECREATIONAL CAMPS

AND BOTTOM FARM LANDS WILL BE INUNDATED.AND BOTTOM FARM LANDS WILL BE INUNDATED.58 FT – ANGOLA FARMLAND ON THE LEFT BANKS 58 FT – ANGOLA FARMLAND ON THE LEFT BANKS

INUNDATED.INUNDATED.59 FT – EAST BANK LEVEE TOPPED AND PRISON FARMLAND 59 FT – EAST BANK LEVEE TOPPED AND PRISON FARMLAND

BETWEEN THE LEVEES INUDATED.BETWEEN THE LEVEES INUDATED.62 FT – THE INNER LEVEE, THE LAST PROTECTION FOR THE 62 FT – THE INNER LEVEE, THE LAST PROTECTION FOR THE

PRISON AT ANGOLA, WILL BE THREATENED. ANGOLA PRISON AT ANGOLA, WILL BE THREATENED. ANGOLA LANDING WILL BE UNDER WATER, THUS THE FERRY WILL LANDING WILL BE UNDER WATER, THUS THE FERRY WILL BE CLOSED.BE CLOSED.

64 FT – THE MAIN ACREAGE AND SOME BUILDINGS WILL BE 64 FT – THE MAIN ACREAGE AND SOME BUILDINGS WILL BE FLOODED AT THE ANGOLA STATE PENITENTIARY AS THE FLOODED AT THE ANGOLA STATE PENITENTIARY AS THE INNER LEVEE WILL BE TOPPED.INNER LEVEE WILL BE TOPPED.

68.59 FT – THE WEST BANK LEVEE WILL BE TOPPED AND 68.59 FT – THE WEST BANK LEVEE WILL BE TOPPED AND THE TOWN OF LETTSWORTH WILL BE FLOODED.THE TOWN OF LETTSWORTH WILL BE FLOODED.

RED RIVER LANDINGRED RIVER LANDINGFORECAST CREST – 65.5 FTFORECAST CREST – 65.5 FT

MAY 21MAY 21

DATEDATE CRESTCREST CFS CFS03/25/199703/25/1997 62.30 62.30

RECORDRECORD05/14/192705/14/1927 60.94 1779000 60.94 177900004/25/200804/25/2008 60.69 60.6904/24/200804/24/2008 60.68 1456461 60.68 145646106/05/198306/05/1983 60.52 60.52

RED RIVER LANDINGRED RIVER LANDINGFORECAST CREST – 65.5 FTFORECAST CREST – 65.5 FT

STAGE 05/03 – 34.8 FT AT 6:00 AM CDTSTAGE 05/03 – 34.8 FT AT 6:00 AM CDT 35 FT – RIVER ISLANDS FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON 35 FT – RIVER ISLANDS FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON

ROUGE WILL BE INUNDATED.ROUGE WILL BE INUNDATED. 36 FT – RIVER TRAFFIC AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY ON THE RIVER 36 FT – RIVER TRAFFIC AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY ON THE RIVER

SIDE OF THE LEVEES WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED. NAVIGATIONAL SIDE OF THE LEVEES WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED. NAVIGATIONAL SAFETY REGULATIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.SAFETY REGULATIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.

38 FT – RIVER TRAFFIC AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATLY 38 FT – RIVER TRAFFIC AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED. NAVIGATION SAFETY REGULATIONS WILL BE STRICTLY AFFECTED. NAVIGATION SAFETY REGULATIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.ENFORCED.

40 FT – THE GROUNDS OF THE OLDER PART OF LSU CAMPUS 40 FT – THE GROUNDS OF THE OLDER PART OF LSU CAMPUS BECOME SOGGY. THIS INCLUDES THE ARE AROUND THE BECOME SOGGY. THIS INCLUDES THE ARE AROUND THE VETERINARY MEDINE BUILDING, THE VETERINARY ANNEX, THE VETERINARY MEDINE BUILDING, THE VETERINARY ANNEX, THE STADIUM, AND THE BALL FIELDS. THE CITY OF BATON ROUGE AND STADIUM, AND THE BALL FIELDS. THE CITY OF BATON ROUGE AND THE MAIN LSU CAMPUS ARE PROTECTED BY LEVEES AT THIS LEVEL.THE MAIN LSU CAMPUS ARE PROTECTED BY LEVEES AT THIS LEVEL.

43 FT – SHIPPING AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY 43 FT – SHIPPING AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED. UNPROTECTED LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE FLOODED AFFECTED. UNPROTECTED LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE FLOODED AND AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS WILL BE IMPACTE DON THE WEST AND AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS WILL BE IMPACTE DON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIVER. THE CITY OF BATON ROUGE IS PROTECTED AT SIDE OF THE RIVER. THE CITY OF BATON ROUGE IS PROTECTED AT THIS LEVEL.THIS LEVEL.

BATON ROUGEBATON ROUGEFORECAST CREST – 47.5 FTFORECAST CREST – 47.5 FT

MAY 21MAY 21

DATEDATE CRESTCREST CFS CFS05/15/192705/15/1927 47.28 47.28

RECORDRECORD05/16/192205/16/1922 45.18 45.1804/29/194504/29/1945 45.18 45.1804/16/194504/16/1945 44.58 1473000 44.58 147300002/28/193702/28/1937 44.48 44.48

BATON ROUGEBATON ROUGEFORECAST CREST – 47.5 FTFORECAST CREST – 47.5 FT

STAGE 05/02 – 23.99 FT AT 7:00 AM CDTSTAGE 05/02 – 23.99 FT AT 7:00 AM CDT27 FT – NAVIGATION BECOMES DIFFICULT FOR 27 FT – NAVIGATION BECOMES DIFFICULT FOR

SMALLER RIVER CRAFTS. SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SMALLER RIVER CRAFTS. SAFETY PRECAUTIONS FOR RIVER TRAFFIC ARE URGED.FOR RIVER TRAFFIC ARE URGED.

30 FT – MODERATE FLOODING ENSUES.30 FT – MODERATE FLOODING ENSUES.34 FT – RIVER BARGE TRAFFIC BECOMES 34 FT – RIVER BARGE TRAFFIC BECOMES

DANGEROUS, PARTICULARLY WHEN NAVIGATING DANGEROUS, PARTICULARLY WHEN NAVIGATING SHARP TURNS ON THIS STRETCH OF THE RIVER.SHARP TURNS ON THIS STRETCH OF THE RIVER.

38 FT – THE NET GRADE PROTECTION OF THE 38 FT – THE NET GRADE PROTECTION OF THE LEVEE WILL BE REACHED, THREATENING THE LEVEE WILL BE REACHED, THREATENING THE CITY OF DONALDSONVILLE AND THE CITY OF DONALDSONVILLE AND THE SURROUDING COUNTRYSIDE.SURROUDING COUNTRYSIDE.

DONALDSONVILLEDONALDSONVILLEFORECAST CREST – 36.0 FTFORECAST CREST – 36.0 FT

MAY 21MAY 21

DATEDATE CRESTCREST CFS CFS05/15/192705/15/1927 36.01 36.01

RECORDRECORD05/16/192205/16/1922 34.75 34.7504/29/194504/29/1945 34.11 34.1105/10/191205/10/1912 33.91 33.9105/29/198305/29/1983 33.30 33.30

DONALDSONVILLEDONALDSONVILLEFORECAST CREST – 36.0 FTFORECAST CREST – 36.0 FT

STAGE 05/03 – 18.87 FT AT 6:00 AM CDTSTAGE 05/03 – 18.87 FT AT 6:00 AM CDT22 FT – MARINE AND INDUSTRIAL INTERESTS 22 FT – MARINE AND INDUSTRIAL INTERESTS

ALONG THE RIVER, UPSTREAM BARGE ALONG THE RIVER, UPSTREAM BARGE OPERATORS, AND FACILITIES ARE IMPACTED. OPERATORS, AND FACILITIES ARE IMPACTED. NAVIGATION WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR NAVIGATION WILL BECOME DIFFICULT FOR SMALLER RIVER CRAFT. SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SMALLER RIVER CRAFT. SAFETY PRECAUTIONS FOR RIVER TRAFFIC ARE URGED.FOR RIVER TRAFFIC ARE URGED.

24 FT – MODERATE FLOODING ENSUES. 24 FT – MODERATE FLOODING ENSUES. LEVEES PROTECT THE REGION AT THIS LEVEL.LEVEES PROTECT THE REGION AT THIS LEVEL.

26 FT – MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS. LEVEES 26 FT – MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS. LEVEES PROTECT THE REGION AT THIS LEVEL.PROTECT THE REGION AT THIS LEVEL.

RESERVERESERVEFORECAST CREST – 25.0 FTFORECAST CREST – 25.0 FT

MAY 22MAY 22

DATEDATE CRESTCREST CFS CFS06/11/192906/11/1929 26.00 26.00

RECORDRECORD04/28/194504/28/1945 25.90 25.9003/05/193203/05/1932 25.60 25.6002/26/193702/26/1937 25.60 25.6002/10/1950 02/10/1950 25.60 25.60

RESERVERESERVEFORECAST CREST – 25.0 FTFORECAST CREST – 25.0 FT

STAGE 05/03 – 13.58 FT AT 6:00 AM CDTSTAGE 05/03 – 13.58 FT AT 6:00 AM CDT17 FT – THE RIVER WILL RISE ON THE LEVEE 17 FT – THE RIVER WILL RISE ON THE LEVEE

MAKING NAVIGATION AND DOCKING DIFFICULT. MAKING NAVIGATION AND DOCKING DIFFICULT. THE CITY IS PROTECTED TO A PROJECT HEIGHT THE CITY IS PROTECTED TO A PROJECT HEIGHT OF 20 FT. BONNET CARRE SPILLWAY MIGHT BE OF 20 FT. BONNET CARRE SPILLWAY MIGHT BE OPENED WHEN PROJECTED FLOW EXCEEDS OPENED WHEN PROJECTED FLOW EXCEEDS 1.25 MILLION CFS TO LIMIT FLOW PAST NEW 1.25 MILLION CFS TO LIMIT FLOW PAST NEW ORLEANS AND TO PREVENT FURTHER RISES AT ORLEANS AND TO PREVENT FURTHER RISES AT THE CARROLLTON GAUGE.THE CARROLLTON GAUGE.

19 FT – MODERATE FLOODING ENSUES.19 FT – MODERATE FLOODING ENSUES.20 FT – A 20 FT PROJECT LEVEE PROTECTS THE 20 FT – A 20 FT PROJECT LEVEE PROTECTS THE

CITY. FLOODWALLS AND LEVEES ARE CITY. FLOODWALLS AND LEVEES ARE CONSTANTLY UPGRADED TO MAINTAIN THAT CONSTANTLY UPGRADED TO MAINTAIN THAT PROJECT HEIGHT.PROJECT HEIGHT.

NEW ORLEANSNEW ORLEANSFORECAST CREST – 17.0 FTFORECAST CREST – 17.0 FT

MAY 22MAY 22

DATEDATE CRESTCREST CFS CFS04/25/192204/25/1922 21.27 21.27

RECORDRECORD05/11/1912 05/11/1912 21.02 21.0204/25/192704/25/1927 21.00 21.0005/18/192705/18/1927 20.50 20.50 1557000155700003/03/191603/03/1916 20.05 20.05

NEW ORLEANSNEW ORLEANSFORECAST CREST – 17.0 FTFORECAST CREST – 17.0 FT

STAGE 05/03 – 5.41 FT AT 6:00 AM CDTSTAGE 05/03 – 5.41 FT AT 6:00 AM CDT 5 FT – FLOODWALL GATES WILL BE CLOSED TO PROTECT AGAINST HIGHER 5 FT – FLOODWALL GATES WILL BE CLOSED TO PROTECT AGAINST HIGHER

STAGES. VESSEL TRAFFIC WILL BE AFFECTED BY STRONGER RIVER CURRENT STAGES. VESSEL TRAFFIC WILL BE AFFECTED BY STRONGER RIVER CURRENT AND VESSEL TRAFFIC SAFETY RULES STRICTLY ENFORCED BY THE U. S. COAST AND VESSEL TRAFFIC SAFETY RULES STRICTLY ENFORCED BY THE U. S. COAST GUARD.GUARD.

6 FT – THE CITY DOCK WILL BE UNDER WATER. WATER WILL COVER THE LOWER 6 FT – THE CITY DOCK WILL BE UNDER WATER. WATER WILL COVER THE LOWER END OF BELLEVIEW FRONT STREET IN BERWICK. TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE END OF BELLEVIEW FRONT STREET IN BERWICK. TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.STRICTLY ENFORCED.

7 FT – BUILDINGS AT THE FOOT OF ANN STREET ON THE RIVER SIDE OF THE FLOOD 7 FT – BUILDINGS AT THE FOOT OF ANN STREET ON THE RIVER SIDE OF THE FLOOD WALL WILL FLOOD AS WATER OVERTOPS THE RIO OIL COMPANY DOCK. BUILDINGS WALL WILL FLOOD AS WATER OVERTOPS THE RIO OIL COMPANY DOCK. BUILDINGS ON THE RIVER SIDE OF THE BERWICK FLOODWALL WILL FLOOD. RIVER TRAFFIC ON THE RIVER SIDE OF THE BERWICK FLOODWALL WILL FLOOD. RIVER TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.

9 FT – STRUCTURES ON THE RIVER SIDE OF PROTECTION WALLS IN MORGAN CITY 9 FT – STRUCTURES ON THE RIVER SIDE OF PROTECTION WALLS IN MORGAN CITY AND BERWICK WILL BE UNDER WATER. RIVER TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AND BERWICK WILL BE UNDER WATER. RIVER TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.STRICTLY ENFORCED.

12 FT – THERE IS A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT. BACK WATER FLOODING OF BAYOU 12 FT – THERE IS A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT. BACK WATER FLOODING OF BAYOU BOUEF WILL CAUSE DAMAGE EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE COMMUNITY OF BOUEF WILL CAUSE DAMAGE EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE COMMUNITY OF AMELIA. STRUCTURES ON THE RIVER SIDE OF PROTECTION WALLS IN MORGAN CITY AMELIA. STRUCTURES ON THE RIVER SIDE OF PROTECTION WALLS IN MORGAN CITY AND BERWICK WILL BE UNDER WATER. RIVER TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AND BERWICK WILL BE UNDER WATER. RIVER TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS WILL BE STRICTLY ENFORCED.STRICTLY ENFORCED.

MORGAN CITYMORGAN CITYFORECAST CREST – 10 FTFORECAST CREST – 10 FT

DATEDATE CRESTCREST CFS CFS05/28/197305/28/1973 10.53 10.53

RECORDRECORD06/27/195706/27/1957 8.46 8.4604/05/199704/05/1997 8.06 8.0604/18/197504/18/1975 7.95 7.9506/06/198306/06/1983 7.32 7.32

MORGAN CITYMORGAN CITYFORECAST CREST – 10 FTFORECAST CREST – 10 FT

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)(AHPS)

..

Video

4 and 20 minutes

Brochures

AHPS Information Toolbox www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/Ahps.shtml

Pamphlet (on-line)

DVD – 22 minutes

Brochures

Audio VideoInternet

www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/index.shtml

NWS Hydrology Outreach NWS Hydrology Outreach

ToolsTools

..

Flood SafetyFlood Safety BrochuresBrochures

www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures.shtml

Wrap – UpWrap – Up

• Questions and CommentsQuestions and Comments

• weather.govweather.gov

• NWS Resource Web SitesNWS Resource Web Sites– www.srh.noaa.gov – Southern Region – Southern Region

HeadquartersHeadquarters– www.srh.noaa.gov/lix - WFO New Orleans/Baton - WFO New Orleans/Baton

Rouge LA at Slidell, LARouge LA at Slidell, LA– www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc - Lower MS River - Lower MS River

Forecast Center at Slidell, LAForecast Center at Slidell, LA– www.nhc.noaa.gov – National Hurricane Center – National Hurricane Center