NWPCC Planning Process for NWPCC Planning Process for the 6the 6thth Power Plan Power Plan

and what is provided to and what is provided to DSMTFDSMTF

For discussion For discussion purposes onlypurposes only

Massoud Jourabchi and Ken Corum April 21, 2010

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NorthwestPower andConservation

Council

Council’s Power Planning Process

Economic & Demographic

Forecasts

Fuel PriceForecasts

ConservationPrograms and

Costs

GeneratingResources and

Costs

Demand Forecasting System

Residential Commercial Industrial Irrigation

Total Electricity Use

Supply - Demand Balance

Resource Supply(Cost and Amount)

ElectricityPrice

You can read more about the Council’s 6th Plan at http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/6/default.htm

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Council’s long-term modeling Council’s long-term modeling workwork

Enduse model, generates monthly forecasts of peak, average, minimum load for each state for 2010-2030.

Discretionary and lost-op conservation targets selected through the regional portfolio selection process.

Conservation targets are modeled into the load forecasting at sector and enduse level

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Conservation targets 2030Conservation targets 2030RESIDENTIAL Program 2030 MWAHeat Pump Water Heater LOP 492 Television and Set Top Box LOP 469 Computers and Monitors LOP 358 Heat Pump Conversions LOP 418 Clothes Washer LOP 108 Dishwasher LOP 16 Refrigerator LOP 41 Freezer LOP 15 New Construction Shell LOP 170 Heat Pump Upgrades LOP 97 Weatherization Retro 284 Ductless Heat Pump Retro 210 Lighting Retro 249 Lighting LOP 35 Showerheads Retro 85 Efficient Tanks LOP 57 Waste Water Heat Recovery LOP 76 Room AC Retro 3 Heat Pump Conversions LOP (23) Heat Pump Upgrades LOP 4 Ductless Heat Pump Retro (15)

Commercial SectorLighting Power Density LOP 340Lighting Power Density Retro 30Interior Lighting Controls LOP 90Exterior Lighting LOP 190Integrated Building Design LOP 60Packaged Refrigeration Equipment LOP 50Controls Commission Complex HVAC Retro 110Controls Optimization Simple HVAC Retro 30Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Retro 90Computer Servers and IT Retro 130Network PC Power Management Retro 70Other Commercial Measures (net of Municipal sewage) RETRO 20Other Commercial Measures LOP 160

ALL INDUSTRIAL MEASURES RETRO 760ALL AGRICULTURAL MEASURES RETRO 100Municipal Sewage Treatment & Water Supply Retro 50Distribution EFFICIENCY MEASURES RETRO 400

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What is provided to DSMTF What is provided to DSMTF

For each BA, for each month starting in 2010 and ending in 2020.

Two load forecasts at busbar (with and without conservation) and the conservation target.

Monthly coincident and non-coincident peaks High and low cost-effective conservation range

(discretionary and lost-ops)

BA forecasts are created by: Taking state level forecasts for load and conservation

(Montana load extrapolated from Western Montana to whole state)

Taking BA shares of each state load (based on 2006 sales)

Applying the BA shares to the state forecasts Adding the non-coincident loads to peak (base on 2008

hourly loads for each BA)

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BA’s Share state loads BA’s Share state loads (2006)(2006)

WA Tot OR Tot ID Tot MT TotAvista 8% 0% 17% 0%BPA 30% 26% 8% 19%Idaho Power 0% 1% 57% 0%Northwestern 0% 0% 0% 77%PAC 10% 32% 17% 0%PGE 0% 40% 0% 0%Chelan PUD 2% 0% 0% 0%Douglas PUD 1% 0% 0% 0%Grant PUD 4% 0% 0% 0%PSE 28% 0% 0% 0%SCL 11% 0% 0% 0%Tacoma 6% 0% 0% 0%WAPAUM 0% 0% 0% 4%total Check 100% 100% 100% 100%

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Non-Coincident MW Non-Coincident MW additionaddition

2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecBonneville Power Administration - - - - - 10 11 - 98 - - 519 PUD No. 1 of Douglas County 1 4 9 14 14 8 9 4 5 10 7 51 Idaho Power 30 168 103 65 759 48 107 228 25 184 22 216 Pacificorp West 11 43 - - 65 49 11 26 67 - - 168 Chelan County PUD - 1 7 3 13 - 15 5 12 13 6 64 Portland General Electric Co. 51 70 36 - 426 148 2 52 23 - 224 - Grant County PUD - - 15 40 58 - 28 8 8 - 3 20 Pudget Sound Energy - 87 10 19 - 35 11 32 131 36 - - Seattle City Light 75 21 29 - 39 5 89 26 32 31 - - Tacoma Power 5 2 7 15 - 26 4 25 26 6 - - Northwestern 84 38 46 - 66 27 66 199 44 35 17 - Avista corp - 52 17 - 52 29 45 108 46 24 18 47

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Comparison to utility Comparison to utility forecastsforecasts

Comparison of the 6th Plan load forecasts (non-DSI) with 2009 PNUCC which sums utility forecasts compared prior to conservation showed that:

Energy and peak forecasts are close however sum of utility forecasts are higher due to coincidence.

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Comparison of Council Forecasted Loads & PNUCC

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Reg

ion

al A

nn

ual

En

erg

y (M

Wa)

CouncilUtilities

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Council January Peak Forecast is Lower than Utilities

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

37,000

39,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Reg

iona

l Firm

Pea

k (M

W)

Council Base Utilities

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Council Forcasts for July is very close to July Peak forecast from Utilities

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

37,000

39,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Reg

iona

l Firm

Pea

k (M

W)

Council

Utilities