nvdia (nvda) - valuex vail 2014

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ValueX Vail Conference NVIDIA Presentation June 20, 2014 Kevin C. Smith, CFA Founder and CEO Crescat Capital LLC

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Nvdia (NVDA)ValueX Vail 2014

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Page 1: Nvdia (Nvda) - Valuex Vail 2014

ValueX Vail Conference

NVIDIA Presentation

June 20, 2014

Kevin C. Smith, CFA

Founder and CEO

Crescat Capital LLC

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Investment Process

Proactive Risk Management

Fundamental Data-Driven

Models

Global Macroeconomic

Themes

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Crescat Global Macro Investment Themes

Digital Evolution (Internet of Things (IoT))

Domestic Banking Resurgence

China Currency and Credit Bubble

India Policy Shift

Nanoscale

U.S. Housing Recovery

Global Fiat Currency Debasement

Global Debt-to-GDP Deleveraging

New Oil and Gas Resources

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NVIDIA – A Free Cash Flow Machine

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Data as of and/or through trailing four quarters ended April 27, 2014 (Q1 2015); unless noted.

Revenues $4.3 Billion Free Cash Flow Margin 14%

Market Cap $10.7 Billion Free Cash Flow Yield 8%

Net Cash $3 Billion Free Cash Flow Multiple 13x

Net Market Value $7.7 Billion 15-yr Hist FCFPS CAGR 27%

Free Cash Flow $592 Million Shares Outstanding $558 Million

Gross Margin 55% Net Cash Per Share $5.35

Key Valuation Metrics

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Crescat Fundamental Equity Model

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Crescat Fundamental Equity Model

Fundamental Regression Statistics

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There is a Misconception in the Market

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Visual Computing Company

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Enterprise: Design, HPC, Data Center, Cloud

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Design in the Cloud

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Enabling HPC in the Data Center

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Supercomputers

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Big Data Analytics

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The Car of Tomorrow Today

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Visual Computing Software

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Tesla Motors

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Audi/Volkswagen

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BMW

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Margin Expansion

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Balance Sheet Strength

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Capital Allocation

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4 Key Growth Drivers

Source: PBOC, Federal Reserve

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Three Platforms

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Two Revenue Reporting Businesses

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2000: NVDA releases first

GPU – FCF increases

5,286% from 2000-2001

2002: Fortune Magazine’s

fastest growing company

2006: CUDA Architecture

introduced – FCF increases

1,568% from 2005-2008 2009-2014: FCF increases 466%

2007: Tesla released

2008: Tegra released

2012: GRID, Tegra 3

released

NVDA – Price and Product Timeline

2007: Forbes Company of the Year

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Valuation: $50 per share

Valuation Methodology:

1. FCF per share CAGR of 25%

for next three fiscal years supported

by: Crescat Fundamental Equity

Model; IP moat; core and new high-

growth markets; historical FCF per

share CAGR of 27% since IPO in

1999.

2. Future free cash flow stream

valued at 20x (5% yld) Crescat

projections of $2.25 per share for

2017 FYE (January); NVDA 15-yr

historical median is 23x FCF (4.3%

yld); Current Crescat 2000

Investable Universe median is 28x

FCF (3.6% yld).

3. Include net cash of $5.35/share

.

Current Market Price: $19.14

Crescat Intrinsic Value $50

Margin of Safety 38%

Appreciate to Target 161%

Page 29: Nvdia (Nvda) - Valuex Vail 2014

Contact Info

Crescat Capital LLC

1560 Broadway, Suite 2270

Denver, CO 80202

Office: 303-271-9997

Fax: 303-271-9998

Kevin C. Smith, CFA

CEO/CIO

[email protected]

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Sources for this presentation

include: NVIDIA, Bloomberg, and

the Crescat Fundamental Equity

Model. The information contained

herein does not constitute an offer

to sell nor the solicitation of an

offer to buy interests in any

security.

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Disclosures

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Appendix

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Current Assets vs. Current Liabilities

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GAAP Net Income Versus Free Cash Flow

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Cash Paid for Taxes Relative to Free Cash Flow

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Stock Issuances Versus Repurchases

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Automotive Metrics

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Enterprise: Design, HPC, Data Center, Cloud

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Crescat Fundamental Equity Model

6 Fundamental Scoring Categories