Ånund KillingtveitÅnund KillingtveitProfessor

NTNUNorwegian University of Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Centre for Environmental Design of Renewable Energy

Introduction to Workshop 2

W k h 2 I t d tiWorkshop 2 Introduction

Water resources planning to address futureWater resources planning to address futureoperational challenges for hydropower

or

Climate Change and Hydropower in Africa

W k h l tWorkshop lecturers

Ånund Killingtveit (aanund.killingtveit@ntnu.no)Professor

Byman Hamududu (byman.hamududu@ntnu.no)MSc/PhD fellow

Emmanuel Jjunju (emmanuel.jjunju@ntnu.no)MSc/PhD fellow

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)Department of Hydraulic and Environmental EngineeringDepartment of Hydraulic and Environmental EngineeringN-7491 Trondheim, Norway

W k hWorkshop program

Hydrological risk for hydropower due to climate changeHydrological risk for hydropower due to climate changeby Ånund Killingtveit

Overview of research on Climate Change in Africaby Emmanuel Jjunju

Methodology for assessing impact on Hydropowerby Byman Hamududuby Byman Hamududu

Break (15 min)( )

Case studies (Malawi, Zambia, Uganda, Ethiopia)( , , g , p )Summary and discussion

A b i f t ti f NTNU d CEDRENA brief presentation of NTNU and CEDREN

NTNU i l di i tit ti f d ti d h H dNTNU is a leading institution for education and research on Hydropowerin Norway, including planning, construction and operation of hydropower plants.

Education is given on MSc level both in Civil, Mechanical and Electrical Engineeringg , g gDepartment of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering responsible for Civil Eng.

NTNU also offers a 2yr International MSc program in Hydropower Development> 50 MSc students from Africa have been trained here last 15 years> 50 MSc students from Africa have been trained here last 15 years

Most research in now organized as PhD research

> 10 PhD students from Africa within area of Hydrology and Hydropower

A new research centre called CEDREN was created in 2009 for research onEnvironmental Friendly Renewable Energy where Sustainable HydropowerEnvironmental Friendly Renewable Energy where Sustainable HydropowerDevelopment for mitigation of CC is one of the main research topics

Norways second largestuniversity.

7 faculties7 faculties

53 Departments

20000 students2700 employed560 Professors

Main responsibility for MSc Engineering program

Main responsibility forHydropower educationand research in Norway

Over 30 International MSc programs, alsoMSc program inH d D l t

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

Hydropower Development

Research group - Hydraulic EngineeringDepartment of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering

Professor Ånund KillingtveitProfessor Nils Reidar B. OlsenProfessor Knut AlfredsenP f ss L if Li Professor Leif Lia Associate Professor Nils RutherAssociate Professor Kiflom BeleteProfessor II Grethe Holm MidttømmeProfessor II Haakon StøleProfessor II NN

Ca 20 PhD and ca 30 MSc students

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

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Centre for environmental design of renewable energy – CEDRENrenewable energy CEDREN

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CEDREN lCEDREN slogan

http://www.cedren.no/

S l f CEDREN hSome examples of CEDREN research

Optimal integration Wind – HydropowerHydropower balancing wind powerPumped storage for wind energy storage

Technology Environment in rivers Wind power - Birds Power lines

S l f NTNU R&D i Af iSome examples of NTNU R&D in Africa

PhD Research by EthiopianWater Balance Lake Victoria y pstudents (6 at NTNU)

MSc programRenewable Energy East Africa

(1 PhD, Makarere Univ.)

Hydropower andClimate Change Renewable Energy East Africa

UDSM and Makarere Univ.

MSc program

Climate Changein Africa (2 PhD, NTNU)

Zambezi River Action PlanWater Management at UDSM

Pangani Basin Research(>10 years 1 PhD NTNU

Hydrology & Database(Consulting, with Norconsult)

Flood warning system in Malawi (>10 years, 1 PhD NTNU, 2 at UDSM)

MSc students in HPD

Flood warning system in Malawi(Consulting, with OCEANOR)

Lake Malawi Level Control(>50 from Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, …)

Modelling and Training(Consulting, with Norconsult)

H d i k tHydropower risk assessment

• Hydropower planning faces many type of risks –Hydropower planning faces many type of risks Hydrological risk is one of the most important

• During planning we strive to get best the possibleinformation about available water resources

• Still – surprises may show up during operation

• How certain can we be about the future?

• Will our assessment be valid in 20 years, 50 years, …?

H d l i l i k t diti l hHydrological risk – traditional approach

• Risk is exposure to an undesireable eventRisk is exposure to an undesireable event

• Traditionally, risk analysis in hydrology uses observedy, y y gyhydrological data (flow) to analyze the probability forundesired events (floods, droughts, power shortage…)

• It is than assumed that hydrological conditions in thef t ill b i il i th b ti i dfuture will be similar as in the observation period –assuming Stationarity

• This may no longer be true …

H d l i l i k d t ti itHydrological risk under non-stationarity

• The assumption of Stationarity is no longer guaranteedp y g g

• There are two main possible reasons for this:• Land use changes• Climate change

• Land use change could be due to deforestation, afforestation, urbanization, introduction of irrigation etc

• Climate change is becoming increasingly more probableand could lead to large changes in Hydrology

Cli t Ch d H d lClimate Change and Hydrology

• A future Climate Change (CC) as predicted by IPCC g ( ) p ycould lead to changes in Temperature and Precipitationand thereby also in Hydrology

• So CC will have impact on Hydrology and thereby onHydropower projects – both existing and plannedHydropower projects both existing and planned

• Consequences on Hydrology could be changes in:• Runoff volume (increasing or decreasing)• Runoff seasonality (better or worse compared to demand)• Frequency of Floods/Droughts (increased frequency of extremes)• Sediment generation and sediment transport• …

International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)predicts a global warming of 2-6 oC in 100 yrs

Predictions are based on analysis byPredictions are based on analysis byGlobal Climate Models (GCM)

General Circulation Model (GCM) Atmosphere-Ocean General( ) pCirculation Model (AOGCM)

Emission Scenarios defines the input Emission Scenarios defines the input of Greenhouse gases (CO2 etc) into CGMs

GCMs are very powerful tools –but also has limitations re. prediction

Different Emission Scenarios gives varying results

Different models gives varying resultsDifferent models gives varying results

Results are valid on a large scale onlyResults are valid on a large scale only

What happens to flow and hydropower in my river?

How can we move from Global til Local Scale?

The process needed to study local effects on

E i i S i

The process needed to study local effects onHydropower resources in a river

Emission Scenarios

Global AOGCM modelG oba OGC ode

Downscaling models

Hydrological model

Hydropower model

Effects on Hydropower

Some examples from NorwaySome examples from Norway

Typical GCM grid

Temperature and Precipitation change by 2100Temperature and Precipitation change by 2100

Energy inflow in Norway today and in the futuregy y y- computed by hydropower simulation models

Summary and conclusions from studies of

Increasing precipitation and runoff gives more water

Summary and conclusions from studies ofClimate Change and hydropower in Norway

g p p g

More water leads to higher energy production

Milder winters gives more winter runoff

Milder winters also means less consumptionMilder winters also means less consumption

In general - improved conditions for hydropower