Number that MattersFuture of the European Union in 2030

Arthur DanziGudmundur Kr

Mauricio SuzukiSameer AgarwalSri Hari Krishnan

Our Initial Scenarios

Empire

Breakup

Super State

Islam State

Click Next to see the Muslim Demographics Video

Fertility RatesClaim

France 1.8 1.98 (07) – 2.02 (08) 3

England 1.6 1.63(01) – 1.92 (07)2

Greece 1.3 1.32(95) – 1.41(06) 3

Germany 1.3 1.37 (07) – 1.38 (08) 3

Italy 1.2 1.19 (95) – 1.35 (06) 1

Spain 1.1 1.16 (95) – 1.40 (07) 1

EU 1.38 1.5 (09) 3

Reality

Sources: (1) Eurostat (2) UK Office of National Statistics (3) AFP News

Claim

2.11 Required

1.9 Never Reversed

France Population

18001850

19001950

200025,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000

65,000,000

WW I WW II

Source: Compilation de données INSEE, INED, et Jacques Dupaquier, Histoire de la population française, Paris, PUF, 1988. Les données datant d'avant les premiers recensements napoléoniens sont des estimations qui prêtent à débats.

“France: 1.8 per family, Muslims: 8.1”

Not legal in France to collect data on religion

Mostly immigration from Algeria and Morocco – 2.38 children per family

Niger– Highest fertility rate in the World – 7.15

Muslim nations have high fertility rates – Yemen 6.41, Gaza Strip 5.19, Saudi Arabia 3.89

* Source: UN World Population Prospect 2008

“In the Netherlands, 50% of all newborns are Muslim.”

Nearly 1 million Muslims in the Netherlands– 5.8% of the population – 50% growth of muslins from 1990 to 2004 from 500k

Total population of the Netherlands – 16,5 million

Will 50% of the population be Muslim in 2015?– Every Muslim, including men, needs to give birth to

1.3 children per year

Source: Statistics Netherlands, 2009

“Muslim population will double in 20 years”

"That is not true. The German government does not believe that the Muslim population will double in the next 40 or 50 years. There are no reliable sources that give a proof for that assumption”

Mr. Walter Radermacher – Chief Statistician of the European Union, former vice-president of the German Federal Statistics Office

The battle between religions

Claim: 30x increase in Muslims in England– No source

Jedi Knight grew from 0 to 390,127 in 1 year– UK National Statistics office, 2001

Jedi Knight will be the main religion in

England before 2015

Source: The Royal Regression Analysis Club at Rotterdam School of Management

THANK YOU

Appendix

Other numbers

• France– France does not collect religious data– Can only show a high concentration of Muslims in one particular

area of France• Netherlands

– Muslims are only 5% of the population (Statistics Netherlands) – 50% of babies = 14 times the rate of births

• UK– 1.6 million (01) but no information about growth rate because

before 2001 no religion data was collected on census• Belgium

– 6% of population (University of Ghent – 2008), instead of 25%