Nuclear Weapons: The Final PandemicPreventing Proliferation and Achieving Abolition

Changing views of the biological effectsof low-level ionizing radiation

Steve WingAssociate Professor of Epidemiology

University of North Carolina School of Public Health

Brenner et al., 2003, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Lifetime Cumulative Dose

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Ln (RR)

Dose (in rems)

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Ln (RR)

Dose (in rems)

Dose at Ages 45+

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

External Radiation and Cancer Deaths, 1943-1990

Based on Richardson & Wing, Int J Epidemiol, 28:428-436, 1999

Estimated association between cumulative radiation dose (3-yr lag) and mortality due to leukemia.

Leukemia Leukemia-CLL Myeloid Leukemia

Males & Females

ERR/10 mSv 0.041 0.077 0.123

90% CI -0.001, 0.116 0.014, 0.198 0.021, 0.354

LRT (2, 1 d.f.) 2.50 4.92 5.14

Males only

ERR/10 mSv 0.044 0.082 0.136

90% CI 0.000, 0.123 0.016, 0.211 0.025, 0.395

LRT (2, 1 d.f.) 2.72 5.22 5.54

Richardson & Wing, American Journal of Epidemiology, 2007

Time since exposure

Leukemia Leukemia-CLL Myeloid Leukemia

3-<15 years

ERR/10 mSv 0.280 0.369 0.437

90% CI 0.021, 0.728 0.003, 1.046 <0, 1.598

LRT (2, 1 d.f.) 3.34 2.78 1.74

15-<30 years

ERR/10 mSv 0.012 0.009 0.013

90% CI <0, 0.109 <0, 0.167 <0, 0.364

LRT (2, 1 d.f.) 0.07 0.02 0.01

30+ years

ERR/10 mSv -0.003 0.104 0.211

90% CI <0, 0.151 <0, 0.458 <0, 1.192

LRT (2, 1 d.f.) 0.00 0.98 0.86

Association between mortality due to leukemia among male SRS workersand cumulative radiation dose accrued in 3 exposure time windows

15 country study A-bomb survivors

(men ages 20-60 ATB)

SRS study

No. cancers

ERR/Sv (90%CI)

No.

cancers

ERR/Sv (90%CI)

No.

cancers

ERR/Sv (90%CI)

196 1.93

(<0, 7.14)

83 3.15*

(1.79, 5.18)

62 7.70

(1.40, 19.80)

Excess relative risk per Sv for leukemia excluding CLL for A-bomb survivors, workers included in the IARC 15-country study, and for SRS workers

* Derived via a linear ERR model adjusted for age, calendar period, and city

Alice Stewart’s model of exposure age and cancer risk

Stewart, A. Environmental Health Perspectives, 108:93-96, 2000

Pierce et al. Radiation Research, 167:735-741, 2007

Alternative Descriptions of Age-at-Exposure Effects on Solid Cancer Incidence, Life Span Study, 1958-1998

Preston et al., Radiation Research, 168:1-64, 2007

age at exposure

Prevalence Odds Ratios for “Multifactorial Disease” in Relation to Parental Radiation Doses:

Clinical Health Study of Children of A-bomb Survivors

Relative odds per Gy, 95% CI

Female offspring Male offspring

Mother’s dose 0.980.83 – 1.16

0.970.81 – 1.17

Father’s dose 1.040.90 – 1.21

0.760.65 – 0.89

RERF, Report on the Health Effects Study of the Children of A-bomb Survivors, March, 2007

Source: US Department of Energy, Closing the Circle on the Splitting of the Atom, 1996