nuclear power and economic growth annalee leggett
TRANSCRIPT
Nuclear Power and Economic Growth
Annalee Leggett
Nuclear Energy DevelopmentWhat causes increases or decreases in a country’s
nuclear energy production?
Does the Development of Nuclear Energy Reactors have a direct
correlation to positive economic development?
Selection: Who goes nuclear?Spectrum of selection data per case study:– How much nuclear energy is produced
– How much total energy is produced
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Credit: IAEA
Initial Data Analysis
Nuclear energy produced: MW(e)
Total primary energy produced: Quadrillion Btu
GDP in PPP
United StatesUS: Primary vs. Nuclear Energy Production
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007
Year
Quadrillion Btu Primary Energy
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
MW Nuclear Energy
Total Primary EnergyProduciton (QuadrillionBtu)Energy Produced in MW
US Nuclear Energy Production vs. GDP
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1960196319661969197219751978198119841987199019931996199920022005
Year
MW Nuclear Energy Produced
$0.00
$5,000.00
$10,000.00
$15,000.00
$20,000.00
$25,000.00
$30,000.00
$35,000.00
$40,000.00
$45,000.00
$50,000.00
GDP in 2008 USD
CapacityMW(e)GDP
-Endogenaity between GDP and Nuclear Energy production-Nuclear production plateau after fall of USSR
RussiaRussia: Primary vs. Nuclear Energy Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Year 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Year
Quadrillion Btu Primary Energy
20600
20800
21000
21200
21400
21600
21800
22000
22200
22400
MW Nuclear Energy
Total Primary EnergyProduciton (Quadrillion Btu)Energy Produced in MW
Russia's Nuclear Energy Production vs. GDP
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
197019801990199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022008Year
MW Nuclear Energy Produced
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
GDP in 2008 USD
Energy ProducedGDP in USD
ChinaChina: Total Primary vs. Nuclear Energy Produced
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005Year
Quadrillion Btu Total Primary
Energy
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
MW Nuclear Energy
Total Primary EnergyProduciton (Quadrillion Btu)Nuclear Energy Producedin MW
China's Nuclear Energy Production vs. GDP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1970198019911992199319942002200320042005Year
MW Nuclear Energy
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
GDP in 2008 USD
Energy capacity (MW(e))GDP
PakistanPakistan: Primary vs. Nuclear Energy Produciton
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005
Year
Quadrillion Btu Primary Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
MW Nuclear Energy
Total Primary EnergyProduciton (QuadrillionBtu)Energy Produced in MW
Pakistan's Nuclear Energy Production vs. GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
MW Energy Produced
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
GDP in 2008 USD
Energy producedGDP
nuclear energy line: stagnant with sudden increase due to construction of their two reactors
Performance: Proposal for further
researchFill data holesStatistics class
– Regressions between total and nuclear energy production
– Compare more variables: Energy intensity, nuclear share of energy generation
Pinpoint times of particular nuclear growth
Was the cause economic, political, technological?