nuclear energy outlook oarai... · thd / 16 april 2007 oarai [japan] 3 world energy outlook 2006...

ThD / 16 April 2007 Oarai [Japan] 1

International Conference on Non-Electric Applications of Nuclear Power: Seawater Desalination, Hydrogen Production

and other Industrial Applications

Oarai, Japan – 16/19 April 2007

Thierry DUJARDINDeputy Director, Science and Development

OECD Nuclear Energy Agency

NUCLEAR ENERGY OUTLOOK


Overview

World Energy Outlook 2006 (IEA)Nuclear Energy NEA activities on non-electric applications


World Energy Outlook 2006Contents

Reference scenarioAlternative Policy scenarioFocus on key topics

Impact of Higher Energy PricesCurrent trends in Oil & Gas InvestmentProspects for Nuclear PowerOutlook for BiofuelsEnergy for Cooking in Developing CountriesBrazil

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Macroeconomic Assumptions

Incomes in the OECD are still four times higher than in rest of the world in 2030

Per-Capita GDP

Incomes continue to grow fastest in China

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

OECDMiddle East

AfricaLatin America

Rest of developing AsiaIndia

Transition economiesChina

average annual growth rate

2015-2030 2004-2015 1990-2004

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand

Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of acentury, with coal use rising most in absolute terms

Oil

Coal

Gas

BiomassNuclear

Other renewables

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Reference Scenario:Primary Energy Demand by Region

World oil demand grows by just over half between 2004 and 2030, with 70% of the increase coming from developing countries

Developing countries become the biggest energy consumers within

a decade

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

OECD Developing countries Transition economies

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Reference Scenario:

Primary Oil Demand

Most of the increase in oil demand comes from developing countries, where economic growth – the main driver of oil demand – is most rapid

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 2005 2020 2030

mb/

d

OECD Transition economies Developing Asia Other developing countries

© OECD/IEA - 2006

0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000

20302004

20302004

20302004

MtoeProduction consumed within each region Traded between regions

Reference Scenario:

World Fossil Fuel Supply

Oil remains by far the most heavily traded fuel, but trade in natural gas expands faster

Oil

Coal

Gas

11%

15%

48%

54%

11%

20%

trade as % of world demand

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Reference Scenario:Net Oil Imports

China sees the biggest jump in oil imports in absolute terms, but North America remains the largest importer

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

OECD Oceania

Korea

Rest of developing Asia

India

Japan

China

OECD Europe

OECD North America

mb/d2005 2030

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Oil 21%

Electricity56%

Coal 3%Gas 19%

Reference Scenario:

Will the Investment Come?

Just over half of all investment needs to 2030 are in developingcountries, 18% in China alone

Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure, 2005-2030 = $20.2 trillion (in $2005)

Power generation

54%

46%

OtherRefining

73%

18%9%

LNG chainTransmission and

distribution

56%

37%7%

Mining

Shipping & ports11%

89%

$4.3 trillion$11.3

trillion

$3.9 trillion

$0.6 trillion

Biofuels 1%

Exploration & development

Transmission & distribution

Exploration & development

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Reference Scenario:World Electricity Demand by Region

World electricity demand doubles between 2004 and 2030

Demand triples in developing countries

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

2004 2015 2030

TWh

OECD Developing countries Transition economies

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Reference Scenario:

World Incremental Electricity Generation by Fuel

Most of the additional demand for electricity is expected to be met by coal, which remains the world’s largest source of electricity to 2030

- 5000

5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 500

2004-2015 2015-2030

TWh

Oil Nuclear Other renewables Hydro Gas Coal

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Reference Scenario:Implications for CO2 Emissions

Half of the projected increase in emissions comes from new powerstations, mainly using coal & mainly located in China & India

Increase of 14.3 Gt (55%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2004 2010 2015 2030

billio

n ton

nes

Coal Oil Gas

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Reference Scenario:Energy-Related CO2 emissions by Region

China overtakes the US as the world’s biggest emitter before 2010, though its per capita emissions reach just 60% of those of the OECD in 2030

0

3

6

9

12

15

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Giga

tonne

sof

CO2

United States

China

Rest of non-OECD

Rest of OECD

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Alternative Policy Scenario:World Primary Energy Demand

The impact of new policies – though far from negligible – is less marked in the period to 2015 because of the slow pace of capital stock turnover

11 000

12 000

13 000

14 000

15 000

16 000

17 000

18 000

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mtoe

Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario

% of Reference Scenario

4%

10%

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Alternative Policy Scenario:

Global Savings in Energy-Related CO2Emissions

Improved end-use efficiency of electricity & fossil fuels accounts for two-thirds of avoided emissions in 2030

Alternative Policy Scenario

Reference Scenario

Increased nuclear (10%)Increased renewables (12%)Power sector efficiency & fuel (13%) Electricity end-use efficiency (29%)

Fossil-fuel end-use efficiency (36%)

26

30

34

38

42

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gtof

CO2

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Prospects for Nuclear Power

More favourable policies on nuclear could significantly accelerate the growth in global capacity – especially in OECD countries

World Nuclear Capacity in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2015 RS 2015APS

2030 RS 2030APS

GW

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

© OECD/IEA - 2006

The Alternative Policy Scenario:Electricity-Supply Investment, 2005-2030

Electricity-supply investment are $2.1 trillion lower than in RS, but renewables and nuclear investment are higher

+49%

+23%-35%

-27%

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

Nuclear powergeneration

Renewables-basedgeneration

Fossil-basedgeneration

Transmission anddistribution

billio

n doll

ars (

2005

)

Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario

© OECD/IEA - 2006

The Alternative Policy Scenario:Global Fuel Shares in Electricity Generation

Over a quarter of global electricity comes from renewable energy sources in 2030 in APS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 2015ReferenceScenario

2015Alternative

PolicyScenario

2030ReferenceScenario

2030Alternative

PolicyScenario

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Wind Other

© OECD/IEA - 2006

The Alternative Policy Scenario :Key policies that Make a Global Difference

A dozen policies in the US, EU & China account for around 40% of the global emissions reduction in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario

Increased efficiency of coal-fired plants

Increased use of renewables

Increased reliance on nuclear

Improved efficiency in electricity use in industry

Improved efficiency in electricity use in the residential sector

China


Nuclear plant lifetime extensions

Increased vehicle fuel economy

Improved efficiency in electricity use in the commercial sector

EU


Tighter CAFE standardsImproved efficiency in

residential & commercial sectors

US

Power generationEnergy efficiency

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Alternative Policy Scenario:Share of Nuclear Power in ElectricityGeneration by Region

The share of nuclear power drops much less than in the ReferenceScenario, helping to curb emissions growth

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2030World OECD Transition economies Developing countries

ThD / 7 February 2007 IED, Lisbon, Portugal 22

Nuclear in the Energy World SceneThe times are changing

WEC – Sydney (9/04)“Keep all energy options open”

“No technology should be idolised or demonised”IAEA Ministerial Conference - Paris(3/05)

with OECD & NEAGreenpeace Co-Founder Calls N-Power“Environmentally Safe and Sound” (4/05)US Senate Energy and Natural Resources CommitteeFinland, France, USA, China, India, …. ECGIF, INPRO, GNEP, …


Why times are changing ?Rising of fossil fuels pricesSecurity of energy supply (and diversity)Climate change concerns

Nuclear energy main featuresMature technologyNearly carbon-free electricity generation sourceStable cost and low marginal costGeopolitical distribution of uranium resources“Domestic” source of energy


Nuclear Energy Today~ 16% of world electricity generated by nuclear

(24% in OECD countries)

442 power plants in 33 countries(352 in 17 OECD countries)

existing power plants are very competitiveincreasing load factorsupgrading of plant capacitieslow cost of lifetime extension

Mature technology


World Average Nuclear Power Plant Availability Factor (%)

Source: IAEA 2006

74 7475

76

78

79 7979

81

82

8384

81

83 83

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


Unplanned Automatic Scramsper 7000 hours critical

1.8

1.61.7

1.4

1.11

1.1

0.9

0.7 0.70.6

0.9

0.7 0.70.6

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Source: WANO 2005


Collective Radiation Exposure of Personnel in PWRs

1.741.66

1.271.16

0.930.85 0.78

0.61

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Man-Sieverts per unit

Source: WANO 2005


Electricity Cost Sensitivityto Fuel Price Volatility

GAS-FIRED PLANT

Gas p

rice x

2

NUCLEAR PLANT

Uran

ium

pric

e x

2+ 75 %+ 5 %

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Electricity Generating Cost Ranges ofMain Technologies

Gas-fired electricity is no longer the cheapest form of generation; prices assumed to remain between $6 and $7 per MBtu

Coal is now the cheapest source in many countries

3

4

5

6

7

8

Nuclear CCGT Coal steam IGCC Wind

US ce

nts pe

r kW

h


NEA/IEA study (2005)Cost Ranges* [USD/MWh]

Coal 5%

Gas 5%

Nucl ear 5%

Coal 10%

Gas 10%

Nucl ear 10%

Nuclear 10%

Gas 10%

Coal 10%

Nuclear 5%

Gas 5%

Coal 5%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

* Excluding the 5% highest and 5% lowest values

5 % discounting rates 10 %60

40

20

0

Gas Gas

Coal Nuclear

CoalNuclear


Projected Costs in Finland(5% discount rate - €2001)

13.87.6 5.3

10.2 13

40.17.3

7.4

1.5

6.58.2

10

3 17.123.7

15.818.4

Nuclear Coal Gas Peat Wood Wind

Investment O&M Fuel Cycle

Source: Lappeenrenta University 2001

24.1 €/MWh

32.1 €/MWh

30.5 €/MWh

32.5 €/MWh39.6 €/MWh

50.1 €/MWh


Full Cost on New Capacity (€/MWh)Source UBS


Capital market viewsA remarkable change in capital markets views on nuclear over the last two years

“Too much capital intensive” disappearedCapital markets expect new build in Europe (not in all countries)Resources to invest in new NPP are availableCompetitiveness is no more an issue

Paradoxe ?Existing nuclear power plants are “cash cows”for most utilities worldwideDecisions to build new plants “future cash cows” are difficult to make


The nuclear case seems good,so where is the problem ?

Business risksLack of confidence in the stability of the rules

political stabilitynuclear regulatory stabilitytaxation stability (incl. ETS)

To reduce risks, partnership utilities / large industrials (‘the Finnish solution’)Role of governments

societal benefits should be recognizedrole to play in reducing the risk, not causing them


Concluding Remarks on Energy PolicyNo ideal or magic solution to avoid the “dirty, insecure and expensive” energy future that the current trends prepareAll energy technologies will be neededUranium resources are availableAdvanced nuclear technologies are developed From a sustainable development perspective, nuclear energy has a major role to play

reduction of CO2 emissionssecurity of energy supplydiversity of supply & price stability

Role of governments key to provide stability


NEA activities on non-electric applications


Information Exchange Meetings on Nuclear Production of Hydrogen

Objectivesexchange information on scientific & technical issuesidentify possible international collaboration

Past meetings1st meeting, France in 20002nd meeting, USA in 20033rd meeting, Japan in 2005

0

50

100

150

2000 2002 2004 2006Meeting Year

Num

ber

Participants


Information Exchange Meetings on Nuclear Production of Hydrogen

Topics and papers at the 2005 meetingThe prospects for hydrogen in future energy structures and nuclear power’s role (3 papers)The worldwide status of R&D (7)Technologies and design concepts (5)Integrated nuclear hydrogen production systems (13)Basic and applied science (7)

Next meeting will be held in USA, 2008


Isotope Production

A series of state-of-the-art reports on “Beneficial Uses and Production of Isotopes”

carried out jointly by the NEA and the IAEA released in 1998, updated in 2002 and 2004to provide

information on production capabilities and use of radioactive isotopes

analysis of trends in supply and demand


NEA acts as technical secretariat for GIF

Hydrogen production :R&D activities and exchange of information are performed with the VHTR system project

Processes applicable to systems other than VHTR are also included

6 (and possibly 7) organisations participate in the project

Generation-IV International Forum (GIF)


Hydrogen production objectives:developing and optimising the thermochemicalwater splitting processes of the sulphur family

advancing the high-temperature electrolysis process

evaluating alternative processes

defining and validating technologies for coupling reactors to process plants




GIF Economic Modelling Working GroupStudy of hydrogen production cost by modular helium cooled reactor vs. steam methane reforming

“Allocating Costs for Non-electricity Products from GIF Nuclear Energy Systems”(to be presented at this meeting)


Thank you for your attention

nuclear energy outlook oarai... · thd / 16 april 2007 oarai [japan] 3 world energy outlook 2006...

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