nuclear dynamics in africa: a russian view · 2016-08-21 · nonproliferation/ nuclear security...
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Nuclear Dynamics in Africa: A Russian View
Anton Khlopkov, Director, Center for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS) Pretoria, South Africa, May 5, 2016
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Presenta(onoverview
• PartI:Africa’snuclearplans• PartII:Russia’snuclearexport• PartIII:ProspectsforRussia-Africanuclearcooperation
• PartIV:Q&A,comments
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PartI:Africa’sNuclearEnergyPlans
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Key Issues in Africa’s Energy Sector • LowaccessandinsufBicientcapacity–Onlyabout24%ofthepopulationofsub-
SaharanAfricahasaccesstoelectricity.ExcludingSouthAfrica,theentireinstalledgenerationcapacityofsub-SaharanAfricaisonly28Gigawatts,equivalenttothatofArgentina.
• Poorreliability-Africanmanufacturingenterprisesexperiencepoweroutagesonaverage56daysperyear.Asaresult,Birmslose6%ofsalesrevenues.Whereback-upgenerationislimited,lossescanbeashighas20%.
• Highcosts-PowertariffsinmostpartsofthedevelopingworldfallintherangeofUS$0.04toUS$0.08perkilowatt-hour.However,inSub-SaharanAfrica,theaveragetariffisUS$0.13perkilowatt-hour.Incountriesdependentondiesel-basedsystems,tariffsarehigherstill.Givenpoorreliability,manyBirmsoperatetheirowndieselgeneratorsattwotothreetimesthecostwithattendantenvironmentalcosts.
• Nuclearenergyisamongavailableoptions-Over45countriesareactivelyconsideringembarkinguponnuclearpowerprogrammes.Amongthemare:Algeria,Egypt,Ghana,Kenya,Morocco,Namibia,Nigeria,Senegal,Tanzania,Tunisia,Uganda(morethan25%fromthetotalnumber).Nuclearenergycontributesabout5%toSouthAfrica’senergymix.
Sources:TheWorldBank,IAEA
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Africa’s Nuclear Energy Plans
• Algeria:toestablish2,400MWofnuclearpower(2units)by2030• Egypt:4,800MW(4units)by2030• Ghana:tooperatetheBirstnuclearpowerreactor(1,000MW)by2025• Kenya:4,000MW(4units)by2033• Morocco:tooperatetheBirstnuclearpowerreactorby2030• Nigeria:4,000MW(4units)by2027• SouthAfrica:toadd9,600MW(6-8units)ofnuclearpowerby2030
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Africa and Nuclear Technologies: Overview
• 55countries(54AUmembers+Morocco)• ResearchReactors–5inoperation(Algeria–2,Egypt–1,Morocco–1,SouthAfrica–1)(2016)
• Othertypesofnuclearresearchinstallationsinoperation–Ghana,Nigeria(miniatureneutronsource),andLibya(criticalassembly)(2016)
• 1NPP,2NuclearPowerReactors(KoebergNPP,SouthAfrica)• 4UraniumProducers(Malawi,Namibia,Niger,SouthAfrica)
– ~15%ofglobalproduction(2014)– 2outof10largest-producinguraniumminesareinAfrica(SOMAIR,Niger~5%;LangerHeinrich,Namibia~4%)(2014)
• Mo-99~10%ofglobalproduction(SouthAfrica,Safari-1)(2013)
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Africa and Nuclear Nonproliferation
• SouthAfricaistheonlycountryinthehistorythathasgaveupitsnuclearweaponsprogramandhasdismantledits(small)nucleararsenal
• PelindabaTreaty-AfricanNuclearWeaponFreeZoneTreaty(SignedinCairoonApril11,1996;enteredintoforceonJuly15,2009)
• RoleofAfricandiplomatsintheBieldisgrowing–ThomasMarkram(UNODA),JeanDuPreez(CTBT),AbdulSamadMinty,(IAEADGcandidate,2009)
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PartII:Russia’snuclearexport
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Russia in the World Market
• Uraniumproduction~7%• Uraniumconversion~20%• Enrichment~45%• Nuclearfuel~17%• NPPsconstruction~25%• SNFreprocessing~10%• SCRosatomExportSales(2015)~USD6,4bn.• ForeignorderstoSCRosatomupto2030(2015)>110bln.
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Nonproliferation/nuclearsecuritystandardsofintergovernmentalagreements(1)
• Russiawillsupplynuclearfuelinaformofmanufacturedcompletefuelassembliesforthewholeperiodofnuclearpowerplantoperation
• SpentnuclearfuelwillbereturnedtoRussiafortemporarystorageandreprocessing
• AAAcountryshouldensurethatthenuclearfuelwillbeusedexclusivelyattheagreednuclearpowerplant
• RussiawillensurethetrainingoftheAAAcountryspecialistsintheBieldofNPPsoperation,maintenance,aswellasintheBieldofregulation
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Nonproliferation/nuclearsecuritystandardsofintergovernmentalagreements(2)
• Nuclearandnon-nuclearmaterials,andequipmentreceivedwithintheframeworkoftheagreement– shallnotbeusedforthemanufactureofnuclearweaponsorforothermilitarypurposes;
– shallbeunderIAEASafeguards;– shallnotbere-exportedortransferredtothethirdpartieswithoutthewrittenconsentoftheRussianFederation;
– shallnotbemodiBied,includingfurtherenrichmentofLEUsuppliedintheformofnuclearfuelandreprocessingofspentnuclearfuel;
– shallbeprovidedwithphysicalprotectionatalevelnotlowerthanthelevelsrecommendedbyINFCICR/225/Rev.5.
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PartIII:ProspectsforRussia-Africanuclearcoopera(on
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Areas for Russia-Africa nuclear cooperation • Uraniumproduction:RosatomOperatesMkujuRiverUraniumMine
developmentprojectinTanzania• Uraniumenrichment:RosatomsuppliesLEUforKoebergNPPfuel
fabrication• Nuclearpowerplantconstruction:Rosatomconductsnegotiationswitha
fewcountriesoftheregion,includingAlgeria,Egypt,Morocco,andSouthAfrica
• NuclearfuelsupplyandSNFremoval:FutureoptionforpowerreactorsofRussianandwesterndesign,locatedintheregion
• Personneltraining:AgreementsignedbetweenNWU(RSA)andROSATOM-CICE&T(Russia)(2016)
• ResearchReactorsconstruction:Egypt,Libya(built),Ethiopia,SouthAfrica(consultations)
• Assistanceinlegislativeandregulatorybasisdevelopment:uponrequest
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PartIV:Q&A,comments
Contactinforma(on:AntonKhlopkov
Director,CenterforEnergyandSecurityStudies(CENESS)[email protected]
+7(495)227-0829
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