Nuclear Doctrines

JuPi Security Conference 2011

Some Rights Reserved

• Copyright 2011 by Gregory Engels. Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Share Alike 3.0 License

Gregory Engels

• Pirate

• founding Co-Chairman of Pirate Party International

• Geek

• Member of the City Council of Offenbach (Germany)

Nuclear Club

Glossary

• First Strike

• Second Strike

• Nuclear Triad

• NPT (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty)

• IBM (Intercontinental ballistic missile)

• Mt (Million ton of TNT equivalent 4.184 PJ)

USA Nuclear Strategies

Forward Strategy

• Nato Document 14/1

• Tactical nuclear air strikes

• combined with conventional counterstrike

• would have radiated most of Germany east of the Rhine

recoilless rifle “Davy Crockett” on a tripod for firing the M388 atomic round

Massive Retalitation

• Nato Document 14/2

• nuclear counter of conventional strike

• Single Integrated Operation Plan SIOP-62

• 3423 single targets in 1960

Flexible Response

• NATO Document 143/3

• Triade-Strategy combines conventional, nuclear tactical and nuclear strategical forces

• 1980‘s SIOP-5D Plan had 40000 possible targets

Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)

• Overkill-Capacity

• Nash Equilibrium

• “Whoever fires first, die second”

• since 1961 - it is questionable, if it still persists

Countervailing Strategy

• Presidential Directive 59

• First kill political leaders, then bomb military targets

• Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI aka Star Wars) 1983

Global Strike

• Contingency Plan 8022 (CONPLAN 8022)

• since 2002

• Use of ballistic missiles with conventional warheads

• Development of new “virtual” weapons

• Space and Cyberspace forces

Prompt Global Strike

• Since 2006

• the ability to deliver a precision conventional weapon strike anywhere in the world within one hour

Russia Nuclear Strategies

Early Strategies

• under Khrushchev (1955) development of strategy to “raze to the ground” the countries that are aggressive towards USSR

Brezhnev

• since 1965 a “double strategy”

• the nuclear war is not to be lead, unless imposed by the NATO or USA

• If the nuclear war is necessary, it must be fought, even with a first strike, if the situation requires it

“Dead Hand”

• 1974 Directive № 695-227 Система «Периметр»

• “Doomsday-Device” to ensure a decentralized counterstrike even in the case of failing communication

“Perimeter” Command Rocket 15А11

Current Doctrine

• Since 2001

• Nuclear First Strike as a counterstrike to weapons of mass destruction or to conventional warfare in the case of a threat to the existence of the Russian State

No First Use Policy• No First Use:

• India

• China (*)

• North Korea

• UdSSR

• (*) China would strike first against USA in case USA would enter the Taiwan conflict

• No “No First Use”

• USA

• Russia

• UK

• Pakistan

• Israel

• France

Pakistan

• First Strike towards India also in the case of conventional warfare

• No Nuclear Triad

• First tests 1998, estimated 300 nukes

• tactical weapons up to 2500 km (4000 km are in development)

• Not a member of Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

India

• Also not a member of Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

• No First Use Policy, deterrence only

• First test 1974 (Smiling Buddha) - a “peaceful nuclear explosion”

• in the process of building nuclear triad

• 70 - 100 nukes (100% growth since 2005)

North Korea

• first test 2006

• estimated 6-8 warheads maximum 4000 km range (BM25 Musudan)

• according to Korean mass-media, North Korea have the nukes only for deterrence

Israel

• Not an official member of the nuclear club

• first test unknown, possible 1974 in a joint effort with South Africa

• allegedly 75-400 warheads in stock with maximum range of 10000 km with 1t load (Jericho III)

China

• full nuclear triad

• first test 1964, last test 1996

• current stockpile ~400 warheads with maximum range of 12.000 to 15.000 km

• "China undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones at any time or under any circumstances."

United Kingdom

• First test 1952, last test 1991

• current stockpile 225 warheads. Maximum range 13.000 km

• special relationship between UK and US

France

• First test 1960, last test 1995

• current stockpile estimated at 300 warheads, maximum range c.a. 10000 km

• 2006 Chirac noted that France would be willing to use nuclear weapons against a state attacking France by terrorist means

Russia

• First test 1949, last test 1990 (715 total)

• current stockpile 12000 warheads, up to 11000 km range, up to 50Mt

USA

• first test 1945, last test 1992 (1054 total)

• current stockpile 5133 warheads, maximum range 13000 km

Contact

Gregory.Engels [௹] piratenpartei-hessen.de

follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/dichter