NuclearDisarmamentIndia

June27,2014

India:NonNPTStatewithNuclearWeapons

EstimatedArsenalSize

Between90and110warheadsintotalinventory,thoughonlyaportionarebelievedtobedeliverable.[1]ItisdisputedwhetherIndiahasdevelopedthermonuclearweapons.[2]

KeyDeliverySystems

IndiannucleardeterrencereliesprincipallyongravitybombsdeliveredbytheMirage2000H(Vajra),theJaguarISShamsherand/ortheSukhoiSu30.[3]DiscussionsbetweenIndiaandFrancebeganin2012overtheIndianpurchaseof126nuclearcapableRafalejets,withatentativedeliverydateof20162017.[4]Somelandbasedballisticmissilesarenuclearcapable,includingthefullyoperationalPrithviI(PI),theAgni1SRBMsandtheAgni2MRBM.[5]TheAgni3andAgni4bothhaverangesupto3,500km,andthelongrange(upto5,000km)Agni5ICBMwastestedforthefirsttimeinApril2012.[6]InFebruary2013,IndiadisclosedthatdevelopmenthadbegunontheAgni6,alongrangenuclearcapablemissilewithMIRVcapabilities(multipleindependentlytargetablereentryvehicle).[7]TheIndiannavyisworkingtointegrateitstwoArihantclassnuclearpoweredsubmarines,equippedwiththenuclearcapableSagarika(K15)submarinelaunchedballisticmissile,intothefleet,andexpectstohavea"modestseabaseddeterrence"by2016.[8]TheArihantisakeyelementinIndia'saspirationtopossessa"nucleartriad"ofland,air,andseabasedforcesitsreactorisexpectedtogocriticalsometimeinthesummerof2013.[9]TheDhanushshipbasedmissilehadtwosuccessfultestfiringsinMarch2011andOctober2012itiscurrentlyoperational.[10]Noinformationisavailableaboutnonstrategicweapons.

EstimatedDestructivePower

Yieldrangeofweapons:below15kt20kt.[11]Totalyield:1Mt[12]IndianofficialsclaimtohavehadasuccessfulthermonuclearbombtestinMay1998withayieldof4360kt,whilemostscholarsestimatethisfiguretohavebeenlower,someconcludingthatthetwostagedevicewasafailure.[13]

EstimatedMilitaryFissileMaterialStockpiles

AllIndiannuclearweaponsarebelievedtobeplutoniumbased.[14]Weaponsgradeplutonium:estimated0.540.18tons.[15]HEUstockpile:2.40.9tons.TheHEUisenrichedtoonly30%to45%U235(muchlessthanweaponsgrade)andisbelievedtobeusedfornuclearsubmarinepropulsion.[16]

DisarmamentandCommitmentstoReduceArsenalSize

OpposedtosigningtheTreatyontheNonProliferationofNuclearWeapons(NPT),whichitviewsasdiscriminatory.[17]Haslongstatedthatitdesiresaworldfreeofnuclearweapons,buthasdevelopedweaponstobeonequalstandingwithotherworldpowers.[18]The1999DraftNuclearDoctrineassertedthat"global,verifiable,andnondiscriminatorynucleardisarmamentisanationalsecurityobjective."[19]

FutureCommitments

Insupportofanondiscriminatory,universal,andverifiableFissileMaterialCutOffTreaty(FMCT).Doesnotwantthetreatytocoverexistingstockpiles.[20]

NuclearWeaponsRelatedPolicies

NuclearTestingPolicy

HasobservednucleartestingmoratoriumsinceMay1998.[21]PartytothePartialTestBanTreaty(banningatmospheric,outerspace,andunderwatertesting).[22]IndiahasnotsignedtheComprehensiveNuclearTestBanTreaty(CTBT).AlongwiththeNonAlignedMovement(NAM),IndiaisastrongadvocateforatimebounddisarmamentcommitmentfromNWSandmayusethelackofacommitmentasareasontorefrainfromsigningtheCTBT.[23]

UseofNuclearWeapons

Pledgesnottobefirsttousenuclearweapons.Retaliationonlypolicy,basedonacredibleminimumdeterrent.[24]

NuclearWeaponsProductionCapacityReactorTechnology

TheIndiraGandhiCentreforAtomicResearch(IGCAR)hascompletedthedesignofa500MWePrototypeFastBreederReactorandisintheprocessofconstructingit[25],expectingittoachievefirstcriticalitybytheendof2014.Uponsuccessfulachievement,theIGCARplanstobuildsixfastbreederreactors,

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greatlyincreasingitsplutoniumproductioncapacity.[26]TheIGCARisalsosuccessfullyoperatingtheKAMINIReactor,theonlyoperationalreactorworldwidetouseU233fuel.[27]IndiaisnearingcompletionofaseconduraniumenrichmentfacilityatitsRareMaterialsPlantinMysore.Thesitehasthepotentialtolaunchbysummer2015,andspeculativeanalysishaspredictedthatitwillhavethecapacitytogeneratefuelsufficientforfivebombseachyear.NotonlycouldthisfacilitygenerateapproximatelytwicethenecessaryuraniumfuelneededforIndiasfuturefleetofsubmarines,italsohasthepotentialtoallowNewDelhitodevelopamorepowerfulclassofthermonuclearweapons.[28]

Sources:[1]ShannonN.Kile,VitalyFedechenko,BharathGopalaswamy,andHansM.Kristensen,"Chapter7:WorldNuclearForces"inSIPRIYearbook2013,SIPRI,n.d.,p.343,4June2013,www.sipri.orgHansM.KristensenandRobertS.Norris,"IndianNuclearForces,2012,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists,Vol.68(4),July/August2012,pp.96101,www.thebulletin.org.[2]Varyingstudiesexistonthe1998"PokrhanII/OperationShakti"testthatsupposedlyfeaturedathermonucleardevice.See,forexample:CareySublette,"WhataretheRealYieldsofIndia'sTest?"NuclearWeaponArchive,8November2001,www.nuclearweaponarchive.org.[3]HansM.KristensenandRobertS.Norris,"IndianNuclearForces,2012,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists,Vol.68(4),July/August2012,pp.96101,www.thebulletin.org.[4]"FranceSellsNuclearCapableAircrafttoIndia,"GlobalSecurityNewswire,7February2012,www.nti.org/gsnHansM.KristensenandRobertS.Norris,"IndianNuclearForces,2012,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists,Vol.68(4),July/August2012,pp.96101,www.thebulletin.orgTamirEshel,"RafaleDeliveriesCouldBeginin20162017,"DefenseUpdate,18June2013,http://defenseupdate.com.[5]M.VRamana,"India,"AssuringDestructionForever,ReachingCriticalWill,March2012,www.reachingcriticalwill.org.[6]"IndiaTestsAdvancedNuclearReadyMissile,"GlobalSecurityNewswire,15November2011,www.nti.org/gsnM.VRamana,"India,"AssuringDestructionForever,ReachingCriticalWill,March2012,www.reachingcriticalwill.org"MutedGlobalResponseFollowsIndianLongRangeMissileTest,"GlobalSecurityNewswire,20April2012,www.nti.org/gsn.[7]RhikKundu,"AgniVIintheworkswilltakeoutseveraltargets,"TheTimesofIndia,10February2013.[8]HansM.KristensenandRobertS.Norris,"IndianNuclearForces,2012,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists,Vol.68(4),July/August2012,pp.96101,www.thebulletin.orgShannonN.Kile,VitalyFedechenko,BharathGopalaswamy,andHansM.Kristensen,"Chapter7:WorldNuclearForces"inSIPRIYearbook2011,SIPRI,n.d.,p.343,13June2011,www.sipri.orgJayMenon,"IndiaExpectsToHaveSubBasedNukesby201516,"AerospaceDailyandDefenceReport,30April2013.[9]"IndianNavyNearlyReadytoDeploySeaBasedNukes,CommanderSays,"GlobalSecurityNewswire,26June2012,www.nti.org/gsn"NavySettoCompleteNuclearTriad:Verma,"ExpressNewsService(NewDelhi),26June2012,www.indianexpress.comZacharyKeck,"China,India,&PakistanExpandNukeArsenals,"TheDiplomatBlogs,5June2013,http://thediplomat.com.[10]"ShipBasedDhanushMissileTestFired,"TheEconomicTimes,11March2011,www.articles.economictimes.indiatimes.comPeterCrail,"WorldwideBallisticMissileInventories,"ArmsControlAssociation,updatedJanuary2012,www.armscontrol.org.[11]GarethEvans,YorikoKawaguchieds.,"NuclearArsenals,2009,"EliminatingNuclearThreats:APracticalAgendaforGlobalPolicymakers,InternationalCommissiononNuclearNonproliferationandDisarmament:Canberra,2009,www.icnnd.org.[12]ConsideringthedebateoverthesophisticationofIndia'snucleararsenal,thesenumbersaredebatable.GarethEvans,YorikoKawaguchieds.,"NuclearArsenals,2009,"EliminatingNuclearThreats:APracticalAgendaforGlobalPolicymakers,InternationalCommissiononNuclearNonproliferationandDisarmament:Canberra,2009,www.icnnd.org.[13]CareySublette,"WhataretheRealYieldsofIndia'sTest?"NuclearWeaponArchive,8November2001,www.nuclearweaponarchive.orgM.VRamana,"India,"inthepublicationAssuringDestructionForeverbyReachingCriticalWill,March2012,www.reachingcriticalwill.org.[14]M.VRamana,"India,"inthepublicationAssuringDestructionForeverbyReachingCriticalWill,March2012,www.reachingcriticalwill.org.[15]InternationalPanelonFissileMaterials,GlobalFissileMaterialReport2013,February2013,www.fissilematerials.org.[16]InternationalPanelonFissileMaterials,GlobalFissileMaterialReport2013,February2013,www.fissilematerials.org.[17]A.VinodKumar,"ReformingtheNPTtoincludeIndia,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists,1May2010,www.thebulletin.org.[18]ZiaMian,M.V.Ramana,R.Rajaraman,"India,"inthepublicationReducingandEliminatingNuclearWeapons:CountryPerspectivesontheChallengestoNuclearDisarmament,InternationalPanelonFissileMaterials,May2010,www.fissilematerials.org.[19]"India'sDraftNuclearDoctrine,"releasedfromNationalSecurityAdvisoryBoardonIndianNuclearDoctrine,accessedfromArmsControlToday,July/August1999,www.armscontrol.orgReijiYoshida,"Abe,Singhinkstatementonnucleardeal,"TheJapanTimes,30May2013.[20]"FMCT:Indiastickstostand,Pakdithers,"TheTimesofIndia,24September2010,www.articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.comSharonSquassoni,AndrewDemkee,andJillMarieParillo,"BanningFissileMaterialProductionforNuclearWeapons:ProspectsforaTreaty(FMCT),"CongressionalResearchService(CRS)ReportforCongress,14July2006,www.csis.org.[21]SominiSangupta,"IndiaDebatesItsRighttoNuclearTesting,"TheNewYorkTimes,21April2007.[22]India:InventoryofInternationalNonproliferationOrganizationsandRegimes,JamesMartinCenterforNonproliferationStudies,lastupdated18November2010,cns.miis.edu.[23]A.VinodKumar,"IndiaandtheCTBT:TheDebateinNewDelhi,"BulletinoftheAtomicScientists:WebEdition,4November2009,www.thebulletin.orgStatementbyH.E.IGustiAgungWesakaPujaonbehalfoftheNonAlignedMovementattheFirstSessionofthePreparatoryCommitteeforthe2015ReviewConference,Cluster1:NuclearDisarmamentandSecurityAssurances,4May2012,www.reachingcriticalwill.com.[24]NirupamaRao,"AddressbyForeignSecretaryatNationalDefenceCollegeon'ChallengesinIndia'sForeignPolicy,'"IndianMinistryofExternalAffairs,19November2010,www.mea.gov.in"India'sDraftNuclearDoctrine,"releasedfromNationalSecurityAdvisoryBoardonIndianNuclearDoctrine,sourcedfromArmsControlToday,July/August1999,www.armscontrol.org.[25]"FastReactorsforEnergySecurity,"IndiraGandhiCentreforAtomicResearch,DepartmentofAtomicEnergy,GovernmentofIndia,updated24June,2014,www.igcar.ernet.in.[26]"India,"pagemaintainedbyStockholmInternationalPeaceResearchInstitute(SIPRI),copyright2014,www.sipri.org.[27]"FastReactorsforEnergySecurity,"IndiraGandhiCentreforAtomicResearch,DepartmentofAtomicEnergy,GovernmentofIndia,updated24June,2014.www.igcar.ernet.in.[28]"IndiasAnticipatedUraniumBoostPromptsAlarminIslamabad,"GlobalSecurityNewswire,20June,2014,www.nti.org.

Critical

Astatewherethenumberofneutronsineachperiodoftime,orgeneration,remainsconstant.Whenanuclearreactorissteadystate,oroperatingatnormalpowerlevelsforextendedperiodsoftime,itisinthisstate.

Submarinelaunchedballisticmissile(SLBM)

Aballisticmissilethatiscarriedonandlaunchedfromasubmarine.

Intercontinentalballisticmissile(ICBM)

Aballisticmissilewitharangegreaterthan5,500km.Seeentryfor"ballisticmissile".

Thermonuclearweapon

Anuclearweaponinwhichthefusionoflightnuclei,suchasdeuteriumandtritium,leadstoasignificantlyhigherexplosiveyieldthaninaregularfissionweapon.Thermonuclearweaponsaresometimesreferredtoasstagedweapons,becausetheinitialfissionreaction(thefirststage)createstheconditionunderwhichthethermonuclearreactioncanoccur(thesecondstage).Alsoarchaicallyreferredtoasahydrogenbomb.

ReentryVehicle(RV)

Anuclearwarheadonaballisticmissilespeciallydesignedtoreentertheearth'satmosphereintheterminalportionofthemissile'strajectory.

Tacticalnuclearweapons

Shortrangenuclearweapons,suchasartilleryshells,bombs,andshortrangemissiles,deployedforuseinbattlefieldoperations.

Highlyenricheduranium(HEU)

Referstouraniumwithaconcentrationofmorethan20%oftheisotopeU235.Achievedviatheprocessofenrichment.Seeentryfor"enricheduranium".

Plutonium(Pu)

Atransuranicelementwithatomicnumber94,producedwhenuraniumisirradiatedinareactor.Itisusedprimarilyinnuclearweaponsand,alongwithuranium,inmixedoxide(MOX)fuel.Plutonium239,afissileisotope,isthemostsuitableisotopeforuseinnuclearweapons.

Enricheduranium

UraniumwithanincreasedconcentrationoftheisotopeU235,relativetonaturaluranium.Naturaluraniumcontains0.7percentU235,whereasnuclearweaponstypicallyrequireuraniumenrichedtoveryhighlevels(seethedefinitionsforhighlyenricheduraniumandweaponsgrade).Nuclearpowerplantfueltypicallyusesuraniumenrichedto3to5percentU235,materialthatisnotsufficientlyenrichedtobeusedfornuclearweapons.

TreatyontheNonProliferationofNuclearWeapons(NPT)

Signedin1968,theTreatyontheNonProliferationofNuclearWeapons(NPT)isthemostwidelyadheredtointernationalsecurityagreement.ThethreepillarsoftheNPTarenucleardisarmament,nonproliferation,andpeacefulusesofnuclearenergy.ArticleVIoftheNPTcommitsstatespossessingnuclearweaponstonegotiateingoodfaithtowardhaltingthearmsraceandthecompleteeliminationofnuclearweapons.TheTreatystipulatesthatnonnuclearweaponstateswillnotseektoacquirenuclearweapons,andwillacceptInternationalAtomicEnergyAgencysafeguardsontheirnuclearactivities,whilenuclearweaponstatescommitnottotransfernuclearweaponstootherstates.Allstateshavearighttothepeacefuluseofnuclearenergy,andshouldassistoneanotherinitsdevelopment.TheNPTprovidesforconferencesofmemberstatestoreviewtreatyimplementationatfiveyearintervals.Initiallyofa25yearduration,theNPTwasextendedindefinitelyin1995.Foradditionalinformation,seetheNPT.

PartialTestBanTreaty(PTBT)

AlsoknownastheLimitedTestBanTreaty(LTBT),theTreatyBanningNuclearWeaponsTestsintheAtmosphere,inOuterSpaceandUnderWaterprohibitsnuclearweaponstests"oranyothernuclearexplosion"intheatmosphere,inouterspace,andunderwater.Whilethetreatydoesnotbantestsunderground,itdoesprohibitnuclearexplosionsinthisenvironmentiftheycause"radioactivedebristobepresentoutsidetheterritoriallimitsoftheStateunderwhosejurisdictionorcontrol"theexplosionswereconducted.Thetreatyisofunlimitedduration.Foradditionalinformation,seethePTBT.

FissileMaterialCutoffTreaty(FMCT)

TreatycurrentlyunderdiscussionintheConferenceonDisarmament(CD)toendtheproductionofweaponsusablefissilematerial(highlyenricheduraniumandplutonium)fornuclearweapons.Foradditionalinformation,seetheFMCT.

NonAlignedMovement(NAM)

TheNonAlignedMovementwasformedduringtheColdWarasanorganizationofstatesthatdidnotseektoformallyalignthemselveswitheithertheUnitedStatesortheSovietUnion,butsoughttoremainindependentorneutral.NAMidentifiestherightofindependentjudgment,thestruggleagainstimperialismandneocolonialism,andtheuseofmoderationinrelationswithallbigpowersasthethreebasicelementsthathaveinfluenceditsapproach.Foradditionalinformation,seetheNAM.

ComprehensiveNuclearTestBanTreaty(CTBT)

Openedforsignaturein1996attheUNGeneralAssembly,theCTBTprohibitsallnucleartestingifitentersintoforce.ThetreatyestablishestheComprehensiveTestBanTreatyOrganization(CTBTO)toensuretheimplementationofitsprovisionsandverifycompliancethroughaglobalmonitoringsystemuponentryintoforce.Pendingthetreatysentryintoforce,thePreparatoryCommissionoftheCTBTOischargedwithestablishingtheInternationalMonitoringSystem(IMS)andpromotingtreatyratifications.CTBTentryintoforceiscontingentonratificationby44AnnexIIstates.Foradditionalinformation,seetheCTBT.

Disarmament

Thoughthereisnoagreeduponlegaldefinitionofwhatdisarmamententailswithinthecontextofinternationalagreements,ageneraldefinitionistheprocessofreducingthequantityand/orcapabilitiesofmilitaryweaponsand/ormilitaryforces.

ThismaterialisproducedindependentlyforNTIbytheJamesMartinCenterforNonproliferationStudiesattheMontereyInstituteofInternationalStudiesanddoesnot

necessarilyreflecttheopinionsofandhasnotbeenindependentlyverifiedbyNTIoritsdirectors,officers,employees,oragents.