nuclear deterrence and the superpower arms race war and global conflict in the contemporary era

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Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

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Page 1: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race

War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Page 2: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

The nuclear peace?

Massive nuclear arsenals: 70,000 nukes by late 1980s

End of civilisation w/ over one billion dead

No nuclear use since 1945

Page 3: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Key themes

Explaining the build-up

Civil-military differences

Nuclear strategy

Page 4: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Reaction to the bomb

Mixture of “awe and apprehension.”

Hiroshima and Nagasaki blown off the map killing up to 140,000

Press censorship of destruction

Prompt surrender of Japan

Page 5: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Hiroshima: clinical destruction

Page 6: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Hiroshima: clinical destruction

Page 7: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Hiroshima: the hidden suffering

Page 8: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Reaction to the bomb

Mixture of “awe and apprehension.”

Hiroshima and Nagasaki blown off the map killing up to 140,000

Press censorship of destruction

Prompt surrender of Japan

Page 9: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Race from the start

US atomic bomb: 1945 Soviet A-bomb: 1949

US hydrogen bomb: 1952 Soviet H-bomb: 1955

Page 10: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Mike test

10 megaton = 500 Hiroshimas

Cloud: 30 x 27 miles

Crater: mile wide and 200 ft deep

End of “Duck and Cover”

Page 11: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Superpower nuclear arsenals

Massive size

Complexity

Overkill

Page 12: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Explaining the arms build-up

External: arms race

Internal: domestic politics

Page 13: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Arms racing

Explains ‘why’ but not ‘how’

Tit-for-tat dynamics

Origins of Soviet programme

Failure of 1946 Baruch Plan

Limitations?

Page 14: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Domestic politics

Bureaucratic interests, election politics, and the MIC

Origins of the US build-up

Undermining alternatives

Windows of vulnerability

Page 15: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Civilian perspectives

Special weapons of last resort

Nuclear taboo: public opinion and personal conviction

Truman and AEC

Eisenhower and Korea

LBJ and Vietnam

Page 16: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Can war be left to the generals?

Page 17: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Mr. Atom Bomb

Page 18: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Military perspectives

WWII bombing campaigns & SAC

Emergency War Plan 1-49

“smoking radiating ruin at the end of two hours.”

Circumventing civilian control

Page 19: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Nuclear nutters

Page 20: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Peace through strength

Page 21: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Golden age of nuclear strategy

MAD v nuclear war-fighting

Can nuclear war be fought?

How easy is deterrence?

Objective: denial or punishment?

(Gray v Howard)

Page 22: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era
Page 23: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Cuban Missile Crisis

Page 24: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

United Nations Security Council

Page 25: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

CMC: Soviet motives

Deter US invasion

Redress strategic imbalance

Counter Turkey deployment

Page 26: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

EXCOMM

Page 27: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

CMC: US options

Naval quarantine

Air strike

Invasion

Page 28: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Public alarm

Page 29: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Enforcing the blockade

Page 30: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Clashes in the Caribbean

Page 31: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Shooting down US spy-plane

Page 32: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Crisis resolution

Trollope Ploy

Secret trade

Page 33: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Back channel

Page 34: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Credit for Kennedy?

Necessity for crisis

Firm resolve

Cold War record

Page 35: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

Threat of nuclear war

Deliberate war- Soviet fears- JFK measures

Accidental war- “Falling leaves” EWS- SAC provocation

Page 36: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

The Deterrence Paradigm

Central v extended deterrence

Immediate v general deterrence

Longevity- robust w/out reckless- best of a bad job- reflected institutional inertia

Page 37: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

US nuclear strategy

Declaratory policy (MAD v NWF)

Employment policy (more choice)

War plan (SIOP)

Page 38: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

NSTDB

1960: 4,100 1974: 25,000 1980: 40,000 1982: 50,000

Page 39: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

The nuclear peace: a close call

Imperative: sufficient damage to target base

US early warning system failures: 1962, 1968, 1973, 1979, 1980

LOW: pre-delegating launch authority

Page 40: Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era