nts update

NTS Update

Gas Customer Forum

25th September 2006

Area updates

NTS Charging Winter 2006/7 Consultation Report GBA notification service 006 Implementation Introduction of new forecasting incentive NTS exit reform

NTS Charging Proposal for April 2007

Pricing Consultation Document shortly

Changes to NTS Capacity charge methodology

Proposal key changes

Replace Transcost with a Transportation Model

Move from ten years of forward looking supply/demand projections to a single year model

NTS Capacity Charging Proposal Implementation

Exit

Implementation for 1st April 2007

Entry

Implementation for 1st April 2007 – revised reserve prices would apply for all auctions held on or after 1st April 2007

Charging Model

The combined Transport and Tariff model would be made available to Users once S&D data could be made available

UNC modification may be necessary to address data confidentiality issues

Contact Paul Roberts 01926 656369 [email protected]

Winter 2006/7 Consultation Report - Summary

Gas demand; forecasts materially lower than those produced in 2005 Gas supply; positive developments have been reported in relation to

new infrastructure projects, however, uncertainty remains regarding utilisation rates

Electricity market; less uncertain. Coal generation expected to operate at baseload with gas providing marginal capacity

Weather remains key determinant Little / no demand-side response required in an average / mild winter Sufficient gas to maintain supplies to NDM market in a 1 in 50 cold winter

Information available throughout the winter via our website

Contact Simon Griew 01926 656314 [email protected]

http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/TYS/outlook/

GBA Notification Service

New subscription service Active GBA notification Text message and/or e-mail notifications Free service

Contact: Paul Gallagher, 01926 654109 [email protected]

To register use the National Gas Operational Data website:

http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/

Mod Raised 3rd Nov

‘04

Information Provision: 006 Timescales

DMR9th Feb ‘04

Final FMR3rd Apr ‘06

RIA (1) Issued 27th May ‘05

Effective Consultation Period

IS Development

Initial FMR1st Nov ‘05

Ofgem Defer Decision July ‘05

RIA (1) Close26th Jun ‘05

Go-Live 3rd Oct

’06RIA (2) Issued

3rd Feb ‘06

RIA (2) Close 17th Mar ‘06

Ofgem Decision

5th May ‘06

006 “Publication of near real time info at UK sub-terminals”

- implementation

NTS input flow data from terminals, sub-terminal, storage 2 min resolution of data Updates every 12 minutes Supply updates effectively containing 6 sets of 2 min data

Contact Development Chris Logue 01926 656733 [email protected]

Operational 01926 654639 [email protected]

Internet functionality to publish

Approximately another £1.5m investment

Delivers another world first?

Information Location

Available from the National Grid websitewww.nationalgrid .com

Located with other market data provided by National Grid within the Operational Data area of the site

www.nationalgrid.com/uk/gas/data Situated on a new button entitled

Energy – Flow Data, or at URL

www.nationalgrid.com/uk/gas/data/EFD Information made available in 3 complimentary ways across 3 pages

Data Access

Page 1 (Instantaneous Flows Latest 12 minute data in tabular and graphical form Always shows the most currently available data

Page 2 (Entry Zone Graphs) Up to last 24hrs data in graphical form by terminal / type Can be used to monitor trends Period selectable by user

Page 3 (User Defined downloads) Provides flexible data download facility Allows user to define download period, and Any combination of sub–terminals/terminals

API interface too …..

Example of Screen Layout – Page 1

6 snapshots of dataat 2 minute intervalsupdated every 12 minutes

Graph of latest flowdata by subterminal

Data issues highlighted

Feedback Form Telephone Helpline: 01926 65 4639

Latest relevant note

Historical notes

Example of Screen Layout – Page 1 (Cont)

Latest total daily flowinto NTS

Graph of latest flowsfor terminal

Example of Screen Layout – Page 2 (last 24 hours)


Selectable time period – last 24 hours selected

Example of Screen Layout – Page 3


Selectable time period

Select original or amended data

Select sites of interest

Selected data displayed graphically

006 Implementation Philosophy

Data as seen by Control Room “warts and all” “no guarantees”

Users can View Download Access via APIs

Data users will need to interprete data

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New SO Gas Incentives

NTS Gas demand forecasting accuracy Performance measure based on the accuracy of day ahead 1400

UNC gas demand forecast NTS Market info website performance

Performance measures based on: The availability of the National Grid Web information web pages (24/7) The timeliness of publication of information reports on the website, fore

example NTSAFF, NTSAPF, SISR03 etc

In both cases, performance improvement to be delivered through IS changes, training, and process/analytical changes.

Day Ahead Demand Forecast Incentive

Option 2 risk/reward DF incentive chosen:

Demand forecasting error(%)

Value of incentivepayment (£)

Benchmark demand forecastingerror (3.6%)

£5.2m

0

Option 2

£9.2m

-£1.6m

5%50%

% reduction in demand forecastingerror

£1.6m

-5%

Winter only incentive

“13:00” Day ahead demand forecast

Benchmark set at last years performance

3.6% = 11.4 mcm average error

Circulatory issue critical?

NTS Exit Reform

UNC Mod Proposal 0116 “Reform of NTS Offtake Arrangements” Points of clarification sought by Wednesday 27th September Mod Panel to consider potential consultation on 12th Oct

NTS advocate that this Modification Proposal should proceed to consultation and that it be considered in conjunction with

Ofgem’s price control proposals

envisaged ExCR (Exit Capacity Release) statement

envisaged NTS Enduring Exit Pricing Methodology

An alternate proposal has also been submitted by E.On

Contact Paul Roberts 01926 656369 [email protected]

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