nse - national stock exchange of india ltd. - the west ...q4fy11 result analysis • west coast’s...

© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.

The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd

Enhancing investment decisions

Q4FY11 Result Update


Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –

Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental

grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The

valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to

grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL Fundamental Grade

Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade

Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

Analyst Disclosure Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest

that can bias the grading recommendation of the company.

Additional Disclosure This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT).

Disclaimer: This Exchange-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL

(Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for

any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without

any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes

investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold

any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this

Report. This Report is for the personal information only of the authorized recipient in India only. This Report should not be

reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person – especially outside India or

published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.

© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL EQUITIES | 1

The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd High material cost and breakdown of turbine affect margins

Fundamental Grade 3/5 (Good fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside)

Industry Papers & Forest Products

Fair Value Rs 113 CMP Rs 86

May 26, 2011

The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd’s (West Coast’s) Q4FY11 revenues were higher

than CRISIL Equities’ expectations because of firm paper prices. However,

EBITDA was disappointing due to high power costs - resulting from a break

down in power turbine - and higher raw material prices. We lower our FY12

earnings estimate due to: (a) the spill over effect of the turbine break down,

(b) high raw material prices, and (c) slow progress of captive plantations;

however, we maintain our FY13 estimates. Considering West Coast’s

established market position and our stable outlook on the paper industry, we

maintain a fundamental grade of 3/5.

Q4FY11 result analysis

• West Coast’s Q4 revenues increased 101% y-o-y on the back of increased

production (new capacities added in Q1FY11), higher price realisation (due

to increased raw material prices) and better product mix.

• The company’s new capacity operated at ~94% due to robust demand

environment. The company sold 84,229 MT paper in Q4FY11, an increase

of 91% compared to 44,099 MT sold in Q4FY10. Average realisation

increased by 6% y-o-y to Rs 44.8 per kg compared to Rs 42.0 per kg in

Q4FY10 owing to a better product mix and increase in overall paper prices.

• EBITDA margin increased 48 bps y-o-y but declined 643 bps q-o-q to

17.8% in Q4FY11. It was lower than our expectations due to high raw

material costs and higher power costs (due to the turbine break down).

• Adjusted PAT was Rs 226 mn compared to a loss of Rs 11 mn in Q4FY10

mainly on account of higher deferred tax provisioning during Q4FY10. EPS

was Rs 3.6 per share compared to Rs (0.2) in Q4FY10.

Industry operating rates, realisations and EBITDA/tonne to firm up

With the rise in operating rates and firm global pulp and wastepaper prices,

CRISIL Research expects paper and paperboard prices to increase 5% and

13% in FY12 (y-o-y) and further by 2% and 3% in FY13 (y-o-y), respectively.

While we expect rising input costs could affect margins, EBITDA/tonne is likely

to increase. Accordingly, we factor in EBITDA/tonne of ~Rs 10k for FY13

compared to ~Rs 9k earned in FY11.

Valuations: Current market price has strong upside

We continue to use the price-to-earnings method and value West Coast at Rs

113. At the current market price of Rs 86, the stock merits a valuation grade

of 5/5.

KEY FORECAST

(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E

Operating income 6,231 6,295 10,722 13,348 14,670

EBITDA 1,254 1,163 2,402 2,703 3,314

Adj PAT 905 549 901 891 1,338

Adj EPS-Rs 15.0 8.8 14.4 14.2 21.3

EPS growth (%) 2.8 (41.6) 64.0 (1.1) 50.3

Dividend yield 2.8 3.9 3.3 4.6 4.6

PE (x) 5.8 9.9 6.0 6.1 4.0

P/BV (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7

RoCE (%) 8.2 5.2 7.7 9.9 13.8

RoE (%) 20.0 10.6 15.8 14.0 18.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 11.8 14.8 7.3 5.9 4.3

CMP: Current Market Price. #FY11 numbers based on abridged financials

Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies est imate

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY 5349

NSE WSTCSTPAPR

Face Value (Rs per share) 2.0

Shares outstanding (mn) 62.7

Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 5,412/119

Enterprise value (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 17,429/384

52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 112/63

Beta 0.93

Free float (%) 48.1%

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 49,522

Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 4.5

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

West Coast -9% 11% -3% 42%

NIFTY -9% 1% -8% 10%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT Chetan Majithia (Head) [email protected]

Suhel Kapur [email protected]

Suresh Guruprasad [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

Fundam

enta

l G

rade

Poor Fundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

Str

ong

Dow

nsid

e

Str

ong

Upsi

de

51.8% 51.8% 51.8% 51.9%

0.1% 0.1% 0.1%6.2% 6.7% 7.0% 7.1%

42.0% 41.4% 41.1% 40.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11

Promoter FII DII Others



Q4FY11 Result Summary West Coast (Rs mn) Q4FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY10 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) FY11 FY10 y-o-y (%)

Operating income 3,441 2,958 1,714 16.3 100.8 10,686 6,289 69.9

Raw materials cost 1,471 1,055 618 39.4 138.0 3,707 2,288 62.0

Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 42.7% 35.7% 36.1% 708bps 667 bps 34.7% 36.4% -169bps

Employees cost 145 162 122 (10.9) 18.3 617 552 11.7

Other expenses 1,212 1,023 676 18.5 79.3 3,996 2,289 74.6

EBITDA 614 718 298 (14.5) 106.4 2,366 1,160 103.9

EBITDA margin 17.8% 24.3% 17.4% -643 bps 48 bps 22.1% 18.5% 369bps

Depreciation 258 254 93 1.5 176.0 961 238 304.3

EBIT 356 464 204 (23.2) 74.6 1,405 923 52.3

Interest and finance charges 129 143 41 (9.7) 245.3 510 111 357.6

Operating PBT 227 321 163 (29.2) 97.4 895 811 10.4

Other Income 12 2 1 684.8 96.7 36 4 890.5

Extraordinary Income/(expense) - - - n.m. n.m. - - n.m.

PBT 240 323 164 (25.7) 46.6 931 815 14.3

Tax 14 38 175 n.m. (91.9) 30 268 (88.8)

PAT 226 285 (11) (20.8) n.m. 901 547 64.7

Adj PAT 226 285 (11) (20.8) n.m. 901 547 64.7

Adj PAT margin 6.6% 9.6% -0.7% -308 bps 722 bps 8.4% 8.7% -27bps

No of equity shares (Mn) 62.8 62.8 62.8 - - 62.8 62.8 -

Adj EPS (Rs) 3.6 4.5 (0.2) (20.8) n.m. 14.4 8.7 64.7

Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies

For the full year, West Coast’s sales volume increased 53% to ~267,994 MT,

thanks to the capacity additions. FY11 sales revenue and PAT were Rs 10,686

mn and Rs 901 mn, - up ~41% and ~39% - respectively, over FY10.

New capacity boosts production Paper realisations continue to be firm

Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies

43 44 44 44 44 43 42 40

7 25 33

32

18%

54%

69%

41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Q1FY10

Q2FY10

Q3FY10

Q4FY10

Q1FY11

Q2FY11

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

('000 MT)

Production from Old Facility

Production from New Facility

Increase in total production (y-o-y) (RHS)

33.0

33.331.2

42.1

36.8

38.239.2

44.8

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Q1FY10

Q2FY10

Q3FY10

Q4FY10

Q1FY11

Q2FY11

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

(Rs/Kg)



Higher material and power costs affect margins Lower EBITDA results in lower PAT margins

Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies

Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Equ ities Source: NSE, CRISIL Equ ities

1,475

1,705

1,394

1,714

1,891

2,396

2,958

3,441

20.8% 19.8%

15.6%17.4%

21.1%

26.5% 24.3%

17.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

(Rs mn)

Revenue EBITDA margin(RHS)

206 232 121

-12

150 240 285 226

13.9% 13.6%

8.7%

-0.7%

7.9%

10.0%9.6%

6.6%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

(Rs mn)

PAT PAT margin(RHS)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Apr-07

Jun-07

Aug-07

Oct-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

West Coast NIFTY

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

30-Jul-10

13-Aug-10

27-Aug-10

10-Sep-10

24-Sep-10

08-Oct-10

22-Oct-10

05-Nov-10

19-Nov-10

03-Dec-10

17-Dec-10

31-Dec-10

14-Jan-11

28-Jan-11

11-Feb-11

25-Feb-11

11-Mar-11

25-Mar-11

08-Apr-11

22-Apr-11

06-May-11

20-May-11

('000)(Rs)

Total Traded Quantity CRISIL Fair Value Share Price



EARNINGS ESTIMATES REVISED

With the rise in operating rates and firm global pulp and wastepaper prices,

CRISIL Research expects domestic paper prices to exceed our earlier estimates.

Considering our firm outlook on paper prices, we expect West Coast’s average

realisation to be ~Rs 43 per kg and ~Rs 44 per kg in FY12 and FY13,

respectively, higher than our earlier estimates of ~Rs 37 per kg and ~Rs 39 per

kg. However, because of the spill over effect due to the power turbine break

down, high raw materials cost and the captive plantation program going slower

than expected, we have lowered our earnings estimate for FY12; however, we

are maintaining that for FY13.

FY12E FY13E

Particulars Unit Old New %change Old New %change

Operating income (Rs mn) 11,731 13,348 14% 12,905 14,670 14%

EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,897 2,703 -7% 3,315 3,314 0%

EBITDA margin % 24.7 20.3 -445bps 25.7 22.6 -310bps

Adj PAT (Rs mn) 1,031 891 -14% 1,352 1,338 -1%

Adj PAT margin % 8.8 6.7 -212bps 10.5 9.1 -135bps

EPS Rs 16.4 14.2 -14% 21.6 21.3 -1%

Source: CRISIL Equ it ies estimate



VALUATION We value West Coast based on the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) method. We

continue to assign a PER of 5x to our FY13 EPS of ~Rs 22 to arrive at a fair

value of Rs 108 per share. Also, West Coast holds a 36.3% stake in Rama

Newsprint. Based on Rama Newsprint’s current market price of Rs 15 and a

holding company discount of 25%, it translates to Rs 5 per West Coast’s

outstanding share. Therefore, our fair value estimate for West Coast is Rs 113

per share.

One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band


P/E – premium/discount to NIFTY P/E movement


CRISIL IER reports released on The West Coast Paper Mills Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)

30-July-10 Initiating coverage* 3/5 Rs 97 3/5 Rs 90

22-Nov-10 Q2FY11 result update 3/5 Rs 107 4/5 Rs 90

24-Feb-11 Q3FY11 result update 3/5 Rs 113 5/5 Rs 77

26-May-11 Q4FY11 result update 3/5 Rs 113 5/5 Rs 86

* For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

(Rs)

West Coast 3x 5x 7x

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

(Rs mn)

EV 5x 7x 9x

-85%

-80%

-75%

-70%

-65%

-60%

-55%

-50%

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Premium/Discount to NIFTY Median

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

(x)

1yr Fwd PE Median PE

-1 std dev

+1 std dev



FINANCIALS

#FY11 numbers based on the abridged financials

Source: Company, CRISIL Equ it ies est imate

Income statement Balance Sheet

(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E

Operating income 6,231 6,295 10,722 13,348 14,670 Liabilities

EBITDA 1,254 1,163 2,402 2,703 3,314 Equity share capital 121 125 125 125 125

EBITDA margin 20.1% 18.5% 22.4% 20.3% 22.6% Reserves 4,907 5,238 5,929 6,526 7,571

Depreciation 210 238 961 900 914 Minorities - - - - -

EBIT 1,043 926 1,441 1,804 2,400 Net worth 5,028 5,363 6,055 6,652 7,697

Interest 79 122 510 505 437 Convertible debt - - - - -

Operating PBT 964 804 931 1,299 1,963 Other debt 12,387 12,997 12,775 11,075 9,475

Other income 41 13 - 28 30 Total debt 12,387 12,997 12,775 11,075 9,475

Exceptional inc/(exp) 0 (2) - - - Deferred tax liability (net) 400 665 686 883 1,179

PBT 1,005 815 931 1,327 1,994 Total liabilities 17,814 19,025 19,515 18,609 18,350

Tax provision 99 268 30 436 655 Assets

Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 2,068 8,056 15,284 14,684 14,070

PAT (reported) 905 547 901 891 1,338 Capital WIP 11,200 7,469 - - -

Less: Exceptionals 0 (2) - - - Total fixed assets 13,269 15,525 15,284 14,684 14,070

Adjusted PAT 905 549 901 891 1,338 Investments 460 467 467 467 467

Current assets

Ratios Inventory 1,437 1,791 2,010 2,560 2,813

FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 434 342 732 726 798

Growth Loans and advances 1,433 1,833 2,275 2,475 2,675

Operating income (%) 5.6 1.0 70.3 24.5 9.9 Cash & bank balance 2,844 1,166 758 526 545

EBITDA (%) 8.8 (7.2) 106.5 12.6 22.6 Marketable securities - - - - -

Adj PAT (%) 8.2 (39.3) 64.0 (1.1) 50.3 Total current assets 6,148 5,132 5,774 6,287 6,831

Adj EPS (%) 2.8 (41.6) 64.0 (1.1) 50.3 Total current liabilities 2,062 2,099 2,010 2,829 3,018

Net current assets 4,085 3,033 3,764 3,458 3,813

Profitability Intangibles/misc. expenditure - - - - -

EBITDA margin (%) 20.1 18.5 22.4 20.3 22.6 Total assets 17,814 19,025 19,515 18,609 18,350

Adj PAT Margin (%) 14.5 8.7 8.4 6.7 9.1

RoE (%) 20.0 10.6 15.8 14.0 18.7 Cash flow

RoCE (%) 8.2 5.2 7.7 9.9 13.8 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E

RoIC (%) 10.3 4.4 8.2 8.3 11.0 Pre-tax profit 1,004 817 931 1,327 1,994

Total tax paid (115) (3) (9) (239) (359)

Valuations Depreciation 210 238 961 900 914

Price-earnings (x) 5.8 9.9 6.0 6.1 4.0 Working capital changes (470) (626) (1,139) 74 (336)

Price-book (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Net cash from operations 630 426 744 2,062 2,212

EV/EBITDA (x) 11.8 14.8 7.3 5.9 4.3 Cash from investments

EV/Sales (x) 2.4 2.8 1.6 1.2 1.0 Capital expenditure (8,167) (2,494) (720) (300) (300)

Dividend payout ratio (%) 16.3 38.7 20.1 28.2 18.8 Investments and others 90 (7) - - -

Dividend yield (%) 2.8 3.9 3.3 4.6 4.6 Net cash from investments (8,077) (2,501) (720) (300) (300)

Cash from financing

B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 135 115 - - -

Inventory days 108 131 88 90 93 Debt raised/(repaid) 8,325 611 (223) (1,700) (1,600)

Creditors days 134 130 78 78 78 Dividend (incl. tax) (147) (211) (209) (294) (294)

Debtor days 24 19 25 19 19 Others (incl extraordinaries) 115 (117) - - -

Working capital days 59 90 83 81 77 Net cash from financing 8,428 397 (432) (1,994) (1,894)

Gross asset turnover (x) 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 Change in cash position 981 (1,678) (408) (232) 19

Net asset turnover (x) 2.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 C losing cash 2,844 1,166 758 526 545

Sales/operating assets (x) 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0

Current ratio (x) 3.0 2.4 2.9 2.2 2.3 Quarterly financials

Debt-equity (x) 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.2 (Rs mn) Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11

Net debt/equity (x) 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.2 Net sales 1,714 1,891 2,396 2,958 3,441

Interest coverage 13.1 7.6 2.8 3.6 5.5 Change (q-o-q) 23% 10% 27% 23% 16%

EBITDA 298 399 635 718 614

Per share Change (q-o-q) 36% 34% 59% 13% -14%

FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 17.4% 21.1% 26.5% 24.3% 17.8%

Adj EPS (Rs) 15.0 8.8 14.4 14.2 21.3 PAT (11) 150 240 285 226

CEPS 18.5 12.5 29.7 28.5 35.9 Adj PAT (11) 150 240 285 226

Book value 83.3 85.5 96.5 106.0 122.7 Change (q-o-q) -110% n.m. 60% 19% -21%

Dividend (Rs) 2.4 3.4 2.9 4.0 4.0 Adj PAT margin -0.7% 7.9% 10.0% 9.6% 6.6%

Actual o/s shares (mn) 60.4 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.7 Adj EPS (0.2) 2.4 3.8 4.5 3.6


CRISIL Independent Equity Research Team

Mukesh Agarwal Senior Director +91 (22) 3342 3035 [email protected]

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