nox impact on air quality, human health and ecosystems in tier ii iii ship emission scenarios for...

8/6/2019 NOx Impact on Air Quality, Human Health and Ecosystems in TIER II III Ship Emission Scenarios for Baltic Sea

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NOx impact on Air Quality,

Human Health and EcosystemsinTIER II / III Ship Emission

Scenarios for Baltic Sea

J.Soares, M. Sofiev, J.-P.Jalkanen


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Outlook

Introduction

Goal of the study

Methodology of the analysis Main outcome

Summary


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Goal of the study

Goal: to evaluate the impact of NOx ship emissionreduction measures in the Baltic Sea Area

Health impact: NOx concentrations

Health impact: NOx exposure

Ecosystem impact: NOx deposition


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Methodology: input data and modelling tool

A modelling study analysing three main emissionscenarious:

3 emission scenarios:

current emissions (2007)

NOx, SOx, CO & NH3

Anthropogenic in-land and ship traffic

Tier II: 10% NOx reduction of 2045 ship emission in the BSA, the reststays the same

Tier III: 80% NOx reduction of 2045 ship emission in the BSA, the rest

stays the same

Working tool: SILAM dispersion model with embedded

inorganic chemistry scheme

Model output: concentrations & depositions over Europe(20km grid size)


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Methodology: processing the model output

Aggregation of the concentration and deposition maps

Lower and upper percentiles for all species

Directive 2008/50/EC: 200 g/m3 for 1 hour-average should not be

exceeded more than 18 times a calendar year: 99.8%

Ratios, absolute and relative differences in concentrations and

depositions between the three emission cases

Average over the computed period

Exposure estimation: E = n * t * C [gs/m3]

n = the number of people (source: Gridded Population of

the World, http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw.)

t = time [s]

C = concentration [g/m3] (source: SILAM)
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpwhttp://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw


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Tool: Chemical Transport Model SILAM


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Model simulations outcome: air quality

impact

Tier II/Tier III , NO2 cnc ave June-

August(gN/m3)

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

currentemissions TIER II TIER III

NO2concentra

tions[g/m3)

NO2annualaverageconcentrationovertheBSA


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Model simulations outcome: ecosystemsimpact

Tier II/Tier III, NTotal annual ave dep (gN/m2.h)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

currentemissions TIER II TIER III

NO2deposition[g/m2.h

)

NTotalannualaveragedepositionovertheBSA

Tier II / Tier III deposition, average whole period

NTotal N-SIA,


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

TIER II TIER III

NO2

exposure(gs/m3)

NO2annualaverageexposureovertheBSA

Exposure: Tier II vs Tier III


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Summary of modelling results

NOx emission by 2045 if the traffic doubles :Tier II - 80% increase, Tier III - 60% reduction.Tier II III impact:

2-3 times decrease of NOx concentrations over the sea area

Minor impact over land

Moderate impact on deposition (tens of %)

Substantial impact on chemical processes over sea: growth of zero-ammonium nitrate area

Reduction of N-SIA production, down to zero over central part of BalticProper

NOx near coastal areas are and will be dominated by theautomobile traffic and energy sector emission

Current NO2 limit values stated in the EU Legislation are not and willnot be exceeded in the Baltic Sea area (at regional scale)

Vegetation: 30 g/m3 at annual level

Human health: 200 g/m3, 99.8th percentile

Human health: 40 g/m3 at annual level


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Summary of exposure estimates

Estimated using the in-land population map and SILAMcomputed concentrations

People at the ferries are ignored

Main changes in NO2 concentrations are over sea area rather than

inland

Harbour emission is largely missing in the present EMEP

ship emission

These two factors resulted in limited difference between

the exposure estimates within Tier II and Tier III

Estimates made for NO2 show some 10%-15% difference

nox impact on air quality, human health and ecosystems in tier ii iii ship emission scenarios for...

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