november 9, 2021 research crypto top 20 analytics, 11/9/21

Please see slide 35 for important disclosures.

Sam Doctorac

Chief Strategy Officer | Head of [email protected] @CryptoSamDoctor | @Sam_Doc

Mark Chin | [email protected]

LTC, up 13.2%, leads daily returns in the top20 tokens of the crypto market, and AXS fallslast, down 4.0%. On average, the top 20tokens have gained 6.8% over the past 24hours, and 11.2% over the past 7 days.

Bitcoin currently exhibits a trailing 30-dayannualized realized volatility of 58.1%, whileEthereum's is 64.8%. Historically, the twovolatilities show a 70.6% correlation, whilethe current correlation is higher at 87.8%.

Excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, theremaining top 18 tokens consist of 19.4%($596.4B) of the total crypto ecosystemwhich currently holds a market cap of $3.1trillion. Bitcoin represents 41.5%($1,278.8B) of this capitalization, Ethereumrepresents 18.6% ($571.7B), and the tokensoutside of the top 20 by market capcomprise of just 20.5% ($631.3B).

Over the past 30 days, a $100 investment inthe top 20 tokens would be worth $130.0,outpacing the $106.7 value of a $100investment in the S&P 500. The $100 wouldbe worth $122.7 if it had been invested inBitcoin, $134.2 in ETH, $205.3 in SHIB (thetop performing ticker), but just $93.7 in ADA(the worst of the top 20).

Our trend & turbulence metrics examine thefrequency and relative magnitude of positivedays for each token over the past quarter(90 days). Bitcoin was positive 54.9% of days,with an average return of 0.5%, and an 0.0%spread between upside and downsidevolatility. The S&P 500 has been positive

42.9% of the time, while the top 20 tokenson average were positive 57.1% of the time.

Summing the two metrics, SHIB was thestrongest token, while BCH lagged.

The average pairwise correlation within thetop 20 is now 47.5%, compared with a longterm average of 52.6%. Correlations withinthe crypto ecosystem have generally beenfalling.

• The highest pairwise correlation in thecrypto space is LTC and BCH at 88.8%.

• The weakest pairwise correlation in thecrypto space is SOL and SHIB at -21.6%.

• Historically, the weakest pairwisecorrelation has averaged -1.73%, withthe pairs changing over time.

• The highest correlation between acryptocurrency asset and other assetclasses is 29.0% between VET and DowJones Indus. Avg.

• The weakest correlation between acryptocurrency asset and other assetclasses is -24.7% between BTC and UsAgg Bond.

• A rising average and minimumcorrelation indicate a market that isincreasingly trading together, whilefalling correlations suggest a risingdispersion of performance.

We have long believed that correlationsincrease in risk-off markets, meaning thatcrypto assets are less of a diversifier than

commonly assumed.

• Over the past two years, the correlationof Bitcoin to the S&P 500 on the S&P500's 30 worst days is 0.9%.

• On these days, the top 20 tokens have anaverage correlation of 5.1% to the S&P500, with AVAX (42.3%) showing thehighest correlation and AXS (-64.1%)showing the weakest correlation.

Finally, we examine the top 20 tokens from atechnical perspective.

• BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOT, LUNA,AVAX, LINK, LTC, UNI, ALGO, VET, andAXS are above all of their 15, 50, 100,and 200 day moving averages.

• No tokens are below all of their 15, 50,100, and 200 day moving averages.

• BNB and AVAX are in overboughtterritory, with RSIs greater than 70.

• None are in oversold territory, and haveRSIs under 30.

Bottom line:

Over the past 24 hours, 85% of the top 20tokens outperformed the S&P 500. Theaverage return across all of the top 20tokens was 6.8%, compared to a 0.3% lossin the S&P 500. There are 2 tokens inoverbought territory and 0 in oversoldterritory.

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Research

Crypto Top 20 Analytics, 11/9/21LTC leads, 85% of tokens outperforming S&P 500; correlations falling generally

November 9, 2021

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© 2021 BitOoda Holdings Inc.2

Table of ContentsDaily Change and WoW / At a Glance Slide 3 Cardano / ADA / $2.13 / Mkt Cap $68.5b Slide 19

Bitcoin and Ethereum / Realized Volatility Slide 4 XRP / XRP / $1.29 / Mkt Cap $60.9b Slide 20

Crypto Market Cap / Total and Share by Group Slide 5 Polkadot / DOT / $53.39 / Mkt Cap $56.1b Slide 21

Bitcoin and Ethereum / Dominance within Asset Class Slide 6 Dogecoin / DOGE / $0.28 / Mkt Cap $37.3b Slide 22

Past 30 Days Performance / SHIB Best, ADA Worst Performing Slide 7 Shiba Inu / SHIB / $0.000055 / Mkt Cap $30.4b Slide 23

Last 90 Days Metrics / Trend and Turbulence Slide 8 Terra / LUNA / $54.40 / Mkt Cap $21.7b Slide 24

60D Correlation / Across Markets Slide 9 Avalanche / AVAX / $91.17 / Mkt Cap $20.1b Slide 25

Pairwise Correlations / When the S&P is Positive Over the Past 60 Days Slide 10 Chainlink / LINK / $34.53 / Mkt Cap $16.0b Slide 26

Pairwise Correlations / When the S&P is Negative Over the Past 60 Days Slide 11 Litecoin / LTC / $229 / Mkt Cap $15.8b Slide 27

Correlations on the 30 Worst S&P Days / Over the Past Two Years Slide 12 Uniswap / UNI / $26.26 / Mkt Cap $13.7b Slide 28

60D Top 20 / Average Correlation Slide 13 Polygon / MATIC / $1.89 / Mkt Cap $13.0b Slide 29

Summary Technicals / Tokens Relative to Moving Averages Slide 14 Algorand / ALGO / $2.05 / Mkt Cap $12.8b Slide 30

Bitcoin / BTC / $67,617 / Mkt Cap $1,278.8b Slide 15 Bitcoin Cash / BCH / $640 / Mkt Cap $12.1b Slide 31

Ethereum / ETH / $4,815 / Mkt Cap $571.7b Slide 16 VeChain / VET / $0.18 / Mkt Cap $11.7b Slide 32

Binance Coin / BNB / $655 / Mkt Cap $110.4b Slide 17 Cosmos / ATOM / $36.61 / Mkt Cap $10.3b Slide 33

Solana / SOL / $249 / Mkt Cap $75.4b Slide 18 Axie Infinity / AXS / $153 / Mkt Cap $10.1b Slide 34

Compared with Yesterday Compared with Week Ago

Added AXS AXS

Deleted CRO XLM

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3 November 9, 2021

Daily Change and WoWAt a Glance

Figure: Top 20 week-over-week and daily change

• The top 20 tokens by market cap gained an average of 11.2% over the past 7 days

• Top gainer week-over-week was AVAX with a 40.5% rise• Worst performer of the week was SHIB, falling 23.0%• LTC leads 1-day returns at 13.2%• AXS trails as the worst 1-day performer, seeing a -4.0% change

Source: BitOoda, CoinGecko, CoinMetrics, Bloomberg


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4 November 9, 2021

Bitcoin and EthereumRealized Volatility

Figure: Annualized rolling 30-day volatility of daily returns trailing two years

• Bitcoin currently exhibits a trailing 30-day annualized realized volatility of 58.1%, while Ethereum's is 64.8%

• Historically, the two volatilities show a 70.6% correlation, while the current correlation is higher at 87.8%



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5 November 9, 2021

Crypto Market CapTotal and Share by Group

Figure: Global crypto market cap

• The top 20 tokens have a combined market cap of $2.4 trillion, or 79.5% of the total market cap

• Excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, the rest of the top 18 have a market cap of $0.6 trillion, or 19.4% of the total crypto market

• The total market cap of the rest of the tokens outside the top 20 is $631.3 billion, or 20.5% of the asset class (vs. an average of 20.1% share over the past two years)



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6 November 9, 2021

Bitcoin and Ethereum Dominance within Asset Class

Figure: Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance

• Bitcoin dominance of 41.5% fell 0.6% over the past week• Over the past two years, Bitcoin dominance (share of asset class

market cap) has averaged 55.3%• Ethereum dominance of 18.6% gained 0.2% over the past week• Over the past two years, Ethereum averaged a 12.2% share of the

asset class



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7 November 9, 2021

Past 30 Days PerformanceSHIB Best, ADA Worst Performing

Figure: Top 20 tokens and the S&P 500 over the past 30 days, rebased to 100 at start

• Over the past 30 days, SHIB is the best performing of the top 20 tokens• A $100 investment would have become $107 in the S&P 500, while

with BTC it would be $122.7 and $134.2 with an ETH investment• On average across the top 20, a $100 investment would now be worth

$130.0, but just $93.7 for ADA, the weakest performer, and $205.3 with the strongest performer, SHIB



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8 November 9, 2021

Last 90 Days MetricsTrend and Turbulence

Figure: Trend and turbulence - percentage positive days and volatility spreads

• Price gains for a token can be sustained when it is up more often than it is down, or when the magnitude of up moves is greater than the magnitude of down moves

• Over the past 90 days, the S&P 500 has been positive 42.9% of the time, while the top 20 tokens on average were positive 57.1% of the time

• Bitcoin was positive 54.9% of days, with an average return of 0.5%, and an 0.0% spread between upside and downside volatility

• Summing the two metrics, SHIB was the strongest token, while BCH lagged

Source: BitOoda, CoinGecko, CoinMetrics, CoinMetrics, Bloomberg


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9 November 9, 2021

60D CorrelationAcross Markets

Figure: 60-day correlation of top 20 tokens and Bloomberg indices

• The highest pairwise correlation in the crypto space is LTC and BCH at 88.8%

• The weakest pairwise correlation in the crypto space is SOL and SHIB at -21.6%

• The highest correlation between a cryptocurrency asset and other asset classes is 29.0% between VET and Dow Jones Indus. Avg

• The weakest correlation between a cryptocurrency asset and other asset classes is -24.7% between BTC and Us Agg Bond


Crypto to Crypto Correlations

Crypto to Other Assets Correlations Other Asset Class

Correlations


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10 November 9, 2021

Pairwise CorrelationsWhen the S&P is Positive Over the Past 60 Days

Figure: 60-trading day pairwise correlations when the S&P 500 is positive

• On the days that the S&P 500 was positive over the past 60 trading days, the highest pairwise correlation in the crypto space is LINK and UNI at 90.3%

• The weakest pairwise correlation in the crypto space is SHIB and AVAX at -37.5%

• The highest correlation between a crypto asset and other asset classes is 33.2% between DOGE and Dollar Index

• The weakest correlation between a crypto asset and other asset classes is -36.5% between SHIB and Us Agg Bond




Correlations


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11 November 9, 2021

Pairwise Correlations When the S&P is Negative Over the Past 60 Days

Figure: 60-trading day pairwise correlations when the S&P 500 is negative

• On the days that the S&P 500 was negative over the past 60 trading days, the highest pairwise correlation in the crypto space is DOGE and BCH at 95.1%

• The weakest pairwise correlation in the crypto space is SOL and SHIB at -8.32%

• The highest correlation between a crypto asset and other asset classes is 26.4% between SOL and S&P 500

• The weakest correlation between a crypto asset and other asset classes is -42.0% between AXS and S&P 500




Correlations


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12 November 9, 2021

Correlations on the 30 Worst S&P DaysOver the Past Two Years

Figure: Pairwise correlations for the 30 days with the worst S&P 500 performance, over the past two years

• During Risk-Off periods – the 30 worst days for the S&P 500 in the past two years – we find that correlations can increase

• Thus, the crypto asset class may be less of a hedge than investors expect on the days they most need a hedge




Correlations


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13 November 9, 2021

60D Top 20Average Correlation

Figure: 60-day average correlation and market cap of top 20 tokens

• The current average pairwise correlation among the top 20 tokens is 47.5%, in the 76th percentile of the two year history

• The minimum pairwise correlation is -21.6% for SOL-SHIB, lower than the long-term average minimum of -1.73%



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14 November 9, 2021

Summary TechnicalsTokens Relative to Moving Averages

Figure: Token prices relative to their moving averages

• BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOT, LUNA, AVAX, LINK, LTC, UNI, ALGO, VET, and AXS are above all of their 15, 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages

• No tokens are below all of their 15, 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages



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15 November 9, 2021

Bitcoin / BTC$67,617 / Mkt Cap $1,278.8b

Figure: 2-year Bitcoin metrics

• BTC gained 10.6% week-over-week and is now trading at 108.9% of 15-DMA and 148.4% of 200-DMA

• The RSI of 61 rose in the last 7 days



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16 November 9, 2021

Ethereum / ETH$4,815 / Mkt Cap $571.7b

Figure: 2-year Ethereum metrics

• ETH gained 11.2% week-over-week and is now trading at 109.1% of 15-DMA and 159.0% of 200-DMA




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17 November 9, 2021

Binance Coin / BNB$655 / Mkt Cap $110.4b

Figure: 2-year Binance Coin metrics

• BNB gained 18.7% week-over-week and is now trading at 118.7% of 15-DMA and 156.4% of 200-DMA

• The RSI of 81 rose in the last 7 days (and is in overbought territory)



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18 November 9, 2021

Solana / SOL$249 / Mkt Cap $75.4b

Figure: 2-year Solana metrics

• SOL gained 22.1% week-over-week and is now trading at 113.2% of 15-DMA and 288.0% of 200-DMA

• The RSI of 62 fell in the last 7 days

Source: BitOoda, CoinGecko, CoinMetrics, CoinMetrics, Bloomberg


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19 November 9, 2021

Cardano / ADA$2.13 / Mkt Cap $68.5b

Figure: 2-year Cardano metrics

• ADA gained 9.0% week-over-week and is now trading at 105.4% of 15-DMA and 116.0% of 200-DMA




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20 November 9, 2021

XRP / XRP$1.29 / Mkt Cap $60.9b

Figure: 2-year XRP metrics

• XRP gained 17.7% week-over-week and is now trading at 113.6% of 15-DMA and 127.7% of 200-DMA




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21 November 9, 2021

Polkadot / DOT$53.39 / Mkt Cap $56.1b

Figure: 2-year Polkadot metrics

• DOT gained 6.6% week-over-week and is now trading at 111.1% of 15-DMA and 189.4% of 200-DMA




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22 November 9, 2021

Dogecoin / DOGE$0.28 / Mkt Cap $37.3b

Figure: 2-year Dogecoin metrics

• DOGE gained 3.7% week-over-week and is now trading at 104.5% of 15-DMA and 98.9% of 200-DMA




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23 November 9, 2021

Shiba Inu / SHIB$0.000055 / Mkt Cap $30.4b

Figure: 2-year Shiba Inu metrics

• SHIB fell 23.0% week-over-week and is now trading at 89.0% of 15-DMA and 395.2% of 200-DMA




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24 November 9, 2021

Terra / LUNA$54.40 / Mkt Cap $21.7b

Figure: 2-year Terra metrics

• LUNA gained 23.3% week-over-week and is now trading at 117.0% of 15-DMA and 251.0% of 200-DMA




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25 November 9, 2021

Avalanche / AVAX$91.17 / Mkt Cap $20.1b

Figure: 2-year Avalanche metrics

• AVAX gained 40.5% week-over-week and is now trading at 127.2% of 15-DMA and 259.3% of 200-DMA

• The RSI of 70 rose in the last 7 days (and is in overbought territory)



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26 November 9, 2021

Chainlink / LINK$34.53 / Mkt Cap $16.0b

Figure: 2-year Chainlink metrics

• LINK gained 9.1% week-over-week and is now trading at 109.3% of 15-DMA and 127.6% of 200-DMA




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27 November 9, 2021

Litecoin / LTC$229 / Mkt Cap $15.8b

Figure: 2-year Litecoin metrics

• LTC gained 15.4% week-over-week and is now trading at 115.0% of 15-DMA and 124.5% of 200-DMA




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28 November 9, 2021

Uniswap / UNI$26.26 / Mkt Cap $13.7b

Figure: 2-year Uniswap metrics

• UNI gained 2.3% week-over-week and is now trading at 102.4% of 15-DMA and 102.5% of 200-DMA




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29 November 9, 2021

Polygon / MATIC$1.89 / Mkt Cap $13.0b

Figure: 2-year Polygon metrics

• MATIC fell 0.7% week-over-week and is now trading at 99.6% of 15-DMA and 144.5% of 200-DMA




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30 November 9, 2021

Algorand / ALGO$2.05 / Mkt Cap $12.8b

Figure: 2-year Algorand metrics

• ALGO gained 11.9% week-over-week and is now trading at 108.7% of 15-DMA and 160.0% of 200-DMA




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31 November 9, 2021

Bitcoin Cash / BCH$640 / Mkt Cap $12.1b

Figure: 2-year Bitcoin Cash metrics

• BCH gained 8.9% week-over-week and is now trading at 107.2% of 15-DMA and 97.4% of 200-DMA




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32 November 9, 2021

VeChain / VET$0.18 / Mkt Cap $11.7b

Figure: 2-year VeChain metrics

• VET gained 27.7% week-over-week and is now trading at 121.8% of 15-DMA and 145.8% of 200-DMA




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33 November 9, 2021

Cosmos / ATOM$36.61 / Mkt Cap $10.3b

Figure: 2-year Cosmos metrics

• ATOM fell 2.3% week-over-week and is now trading at 97.4% of 15-DMA and 165.1% of 200-DMA




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34 November 9, 2021

Axie Infinity / AXS$153 / Mkt Cap $10.1b

Figure: 2-year Axie Infinity metrics

• AXS gained 11.6% week-over-week and is now trading at 108.0% of 15-DMA and 299.8% of 200-DMA




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35

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda.This research is not intended to constitute anoffer, solicitation, or invitation for any securitiesand may not be distributed into jurisdictionswhere it is unlawful to do so. For additionaldisclosures and information, please contact aBitOoda representative at [email protected].

Analyst Certification

Sam Doctor, the research analyst denoted by an“AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifiesthat all of the views expressed in this reportaccurately reflect his personal views, which havenot been influenced by considerations of thefirm’s business or client relationships.

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, andrecommendations of BitOoda. This report isintended for research and educational purposesonly. We are not compensated in any way basedupon any specific view or recommendation.

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november 9, 2021 research crypto top 20 analytics, 11/9/21

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