november 2007
DESCRIPTION
November 2007. Overview of Collateralized Loan Obligations. Table of Contents. The CDO Market The CDO Structure Current Opportunities. The CDO Market 2004-2006. Where are we now?. Where are we now?. Overview of CDOs. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
November 2007
Overview of Collateralized Loan Obligations
2
Table of Contents
I. The CDO Market
II. The CDO Structure
III.Current Opportunities
3
The CDO Market 2004-2006
4
Where are we now?
5
Where are we now?
6
Overview of CDOs
• Collateralized Debt Obligations (“CDOs”) are securities issued to finance a diversified pool of credits.
• The portfolio of securitized assets in a CDO is typically financed by a credit-tiered capital structure, consisting of both investment grade and non-investment grade tranches of debt, supported by an equity tranche.
• The majority of the financing for a CDO is usually provided by a large AAA rated tranche of debt, thereby making the weighted average cost of capital significantly cheaper than the return on the portfolio of assets.
• Below the rated debt tranches in the structure of a CDO is a tranche of Equity. This tranche is the beneficiary of the spread differential between the returns on the portfolio of assets and the weighted average cost of financing.
What are CDOs?
7
Source: Bear Stearns CDO Research; as of September 2007.Issuance figures are as of closing date, and are subject to change as more information becomes available.
The CDO Market
449
49
98 96 97 106 107122
189
273
544
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD 07
Global issuance since 1997 has totaled $2.68 trillion
Growth of the Global CDO Market ($Billions)
8
Source: Bear Stearns CDO Research; funded issuance.* As of August 31, 2007.
The CDO Market
CDO Issuance by Sector – U.S. (MM)
Asset Class 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Bank Loans 15,072$ 14,031$ 20,526$ 30,496$ 53,364$ 101,721$ 79,469$
ABS/ MBS 14,752$ 16,205$ 21,368$ 52,456$ 83,289$ 166,516$ 140,074$
CMBS 2,695$ 13,464$ 5,514$ 4,438$ 5,347$ 21,797$ 14,943$
Bank Trust Preferred Securities 3,742$ 4,416$ 7,574$ 8,002$ 6,610$ 12,056$ 5,719$
REIT Trust Preferred Securities -$ -$ -$ -$ 3,225$ 2,824$ 4,353$
ABS Synthetic 1,085$ 2,090$ 502$ 987$ 11,376$ 29,446$ 8,880$
Investment Grade Bond 6,250$ 3,398$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 100$
Investment Grade Bond Synthetic 3,738$ 11,948$ 17,398$ 11,973$ 4,703$ 18,336$ 19,110$
CDO of CDOs 3,275$ 1,667$ 2,307$ 10,440$ 6,059$ 12,288$ 15,272$
High Yield Bond 14,863$ 1,618$ 766$ 73$ -$ 238$ -$
Other 15,706$ 10,622$ 6,020$ 8,952$ 13,805$ 26,605$ 48,391$
Grand Total 81,177$ 79,460$ 81,974$ 127,816$ 187,778$ 391,827$ 336,311$
Asset Class 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Bank Loans
$15,072
$14,031
$20,526
$30,496
$53,364
$103,733
$79,4
69
9
Not All CDOs Are Created Equal
Lodging & casinos5.4%
Retailers (except food & drug)5.4%
Industrial equipment1.2%
Food products1.9%
Food/ drug retailers1.8%
Automotive1.0%
Equipment leasing0.5%
Chemical & Plastics2.3%
Utilities2.4%
Oil & gas4.2%
Conglomerates3.9%
Clothing/ textiles1.0%
Nonferrous metals/ minerals0.4%
Ecological services & equipment
1.4%
Containers & glass products1.3%
Financial intermediaries0.3%
Surface transport1.9%
Cable & satellite television3.4%
Forest products2.6%
Building & Development3.7%
Food service2.6%
Aerospace & Defense2.6%
Telecommunications/ cellular6.2%
Electronics/ electrical6.2%
Publishing6.7%
Health care8.1%
Radio & Television7.6%
Business equipment & Services7.3%
Leisure goods/ activities/ movies
6.7%
US Mezz ABS CDO US CLORMBS
Subprime62%
RMBS Midprime
26%
ABS CDO8%
RMBS Prime4%
Diversity in CDOs
10
Not All CDOs Are Created Equal
RMBS Source: LPSLoan Source: S&P’s LCD
Subprime 60+ Delinquencies by Vintage Leveraged Loan Default Rates
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Dec-98
Sep-99
Jun-00
Mar-01
Dec-01
Sep-02
Jun-03
Mar-04
Dec-04
Sep-05
Jun-06
Mar-07
Def
ault
Rat
e (%
)
Leverage Loan Default Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 6 12 18 24 30 36
Loan Age
% D
elin
quen
t
2003
2004
2005
2006
RMBS vs Leveraged Loans
11
Debt ServiceLIBOR+0.50%
AndExpenses
0.60%-----------------
LIBOR+1.10%Total Costs =
Preferred Shares$40 mm 8.0
%
The CDO Structure
Assets
$500 mm
US Corporate Senior Secured
Bank Loans
Weighted AverageYield:
LIBOR+2.30%
CDOSpecial Purpose
Vehicle
Remaining Net
Spread1.20%
$372 mmAaa / AAA
LIBOR+0.26%
74.4%Of
TotalAsset
s
Liabilities
$33 mmAa2 / AA
LIBOR+0.40%6.6%
$31 mmA2 / A
LIBOR+0.70%6.2%
$20 mmBaa2 / BBB
LIBOR+1.65%4.0%
$20 mmBa2 / BB
LIBOR+3.75%4.0%
1. Capital structure modeled as of 7/2/2007
12
The CDO Structure
1. Defaults begin 2 periods after collateral is purchased, and are the indicated rate thereafter. The call rate of the loans is assumed to be 25% per annum, beginning after 1 period. Assumes a reinvestment spread of 2.40% in year 1, 2.50% in year 2 and 2.60% thereafter. Forward LIBOR used.
To MaturityImmediate Recovery at 75% upon Default
TrancheConstant Default Rate at
which First Loss of Principal occurs
>100%
>100%
(BB/ Ba2) 14%
37%
22%
(AAA/ Aaa)
(AA/ Aa2)
(A/ A2)
(BBB/ Baa2)
Illustrative Sensitivity Analysis of Rated Debt Tranches1
13
Immediate Recovery at 75% upon Default
Illustrative Preferred Share Returns1,2
1. Defaults begin 2 periods after collateral is purchased, and are the indicated rate thereafter. The call rate of the loans is assumed to be 25% per annum, beginning after 1 period. Assumes a reinvestment spread of 2.40% in year 1, 2.50% in year 2 and 2.60% thereafter. Forward LIBOR used.
2. Returns modeled as of 7/2/2007
Constant Default Rate 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
Preferred Share Returns
IRR 18.3% 16.7% 14.9% 12.9% 10.1% 6.6% 2.7% -1.6% -6.3% -12.1%
The CDO Structure
2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
14.9% 12.9% 10.1%
14
The CDO Structure
1. Assumes transaction is called after 8.2 years, 3% Annual CDR, and Immediate Recovery at 75% upon default.2. Defaults begin 2 periods after collateral is purchased, and are the indicated rate thereafter. The call rate of the
loans is assumed to be 25% per annum, beginning after 1 period. Assumes a reinvestment spread of 2.40% in year 1, 2.50% in year 2 and 2.60% thereafter. Forward LIBOR used.
Quarterly Annualized Cumulative Quarterly Annualized Cumulative Period Periodic Return Return Period Periodic Return Return
1 0.00% 0.00% 17 26.06% 88.79%2 7.07% 1.77% 18 20.81% 94.00%3 25.96% 8.26% 19 25.72% 100.43%4 18.62% 12.91% 20 20.49% 105.55%5 27.26% 19.73% 21 25.74% 111.98%6 20.81% 24.93% 22 20.67% 117.15%7 24.78% 31.12% 23 20.22% 122.21%8 18.87% 35.84% 24 13.40% 125.56%9 27.16% 42.63% 25 18.06% 130.07%10 21.10% 47.91% 26 19.55% 134.96%11 25.32% 54.24% 27 19.92% 139.94%12 19.77% 59.18% 28 16.28% 144.01%13 26.53% 65.81% 29 14.42% 147.62%14 20.86% 71.03% 30 12.56% 150.76%15 25.27% 77.34% 31 12.84% 153.97%16 19.75% 82.28% 32 54.40% 167.57%
Hypothetical CDO Equity Cash Flows ( expected IRR: 12-15%)
15
Source: Bear Stearns CDO Research. Simple average of monthly liability spreads for the given year.
The CDO Structure
Tranche
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1H07
Current
AAA 50 44 44 47 54 37 26 25 24 70
AA 65 72 73 79 95 68 43 40 37 150
A148
135135
153 161 122 77 70 68 225
BBB240
219233
269 307 238 183 158 135 400
BB602
599661
747 811 650 481 395 335 700
New Issue Liability Spreads
1H07Curren
t
24 70
37 150
68 225
135 400
335 700
16
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
J an-99 J an-00 J an-01 J an-02 J an-03 J an-04 J an-05 J an-06 J an-07
Def
ault
Rat
e
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Spread Over Libor (bps)
Loan Default Rate AAA (Spread Over LIBOR)
Current Opportunities
Loan Source: S&P/LCD CLO Liability Spread Source: Bear Stearns CDO Research1. 12-month lagging leveraged loan default rate by number of issuers.2. S&P occasionally revises its published historical default rate data, and so the values shown are subject to change. 3. Source: Leveraged Loan Index 12-month lagging leveraged loan default rate by number of issuers.
Opportunities for AAA investors
AAA CLO Liability Spreads and Leveraged Loan Default Rate through September 20071,2,3
• CLO spreads have moved with defaults in previous credit cycles. Because of the current market dislocation, spreads have increased significantly while defaults have remained low
17
Current Opportunities
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Jan-99
Jul-9
9
Jan-00
Jul-0
0
Jan-01
Jul-0
1
Jan-02
Jul-0
2
Jan-03
Jul-0
3
Jan-04
Jul-0
4
Jan-05
Jul-0
5
Jan-06
Jul-0
6
Jan-07
Jul-0
7
Def
ault
Rat
e
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Spread Over Libor (bps)
Loan Default Rate BBB (Spread Over LIBOR) BB (Spread Over LIBOR)Loan Source: S&P/LCD CLO Liability Spread Source: Bear Stearns CDO Research1. 12-month lagging leveraged loan default rate by number of issuers.2. S&P occasionally revises its published historical default rate data, and so the values shown are subject to change. 3. Source: Leveraged Loan Index 12-month lagging leveraged loan default rate by number of issuers.
Opportunities for BBB & BB investors• CLO spreads have moved with defaults in previous credit cycles.
Because of the current market dislocation, spreads have increased significantly while defaults have remained lowBBB and BB CLO Liability Spreads and Leveraged Loan Default Rate
through September 20071,2,3
18
Rating CLO Corporates1
Aaa 0.10% 3.50%
Aa2 1.50% 7.10%
Baa2 1.20% 12.00%
Ba2 2.40% 18.10%
Comparison of 1 Year Average Rating Transition, 1996-2006
Risk: Historical Average One Year Downgrade Risk• CLO liabilities have experienced significantly less downgrades than
comparably rated corporates
Current Opportunities
Downgrade Source: Moody’s Investor Services, “Credit Migration of CDO Notes, 1996 - 2006, for US and European Transactions” February 28, 2007
1. Baa3 and Ba3 ratings are deemphasized as debt rated at these levels is no longer commonly issued. Additionally, there were only 194 and 212 observations at the Baa3 and Ba3 levels, respectively, while there were 1230, 417, 684, and 363 observations for the Aaa, Aa2, Baa2, and Ba2 ratings, respectively.
2. Figures are from "theoretical" corporate transition matrix. Moody’s weighted each year’s one-year corporate transition rates by the number of CDO ratings outstanding at each rating level at the beginning of the year.
19
Current Opportunities
• CLOs allow investors to access the corporate credit markets
• CLO performance is not directly tied to Residential Mortgage Backed Securities
• The CLO structure allows investors to participate across the capital structure based on their preference for risk
• Uncertainty in the credit markets have caused CLO spreads to widen significantly
In Conclusion