DHS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

FEMA-DHS S&T Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) Fire Requirement Findings

November 13, 2019 FEMA Executive Briefing

FEMA Administrator’s Request

2

In December of 2017, the FEMA Administrator requested that DHS S&T investigate life-saving technologies for WUI fire incidents, given the horrific loss of life that occurred in California during the fall of 2017.

WUI zone is where development meets or intermingles with wildland fuels− WUI fires are a growing threat to lives and property with an annual loss of $14 billion− Over 46 million homes in 70,000 communities in the US are at risk

S&T in partnership with representatives of California and Tennessee fire services, emergency managers, fire science and surveillance experts hosted four facilitated table top exercises to identify available technologies and to prioritize investment decisions that can save lives in response to WUI wildfires.

1. The time criticality of a WUI fire requires immediate protective and response actions.2. There are available, affordable, usable, and impactful technologies that can

improve detection, tracking, evacuation, and responder safety.3. Infrastructure, public education and preparedness are vital in reducing lives lost

and property damage

Summary of Findings

Project Scope

Stakeholders

The WUI Fire Initiative has engaged the following senior leaders:

• Dr. Daniel Kaniewski, Deputy Administrator for Resilience• Attending the March Command Staff Table Top Exercise (TTX) #3

• Mr. Robert Fenton, Regional Administrator for FEMA Region IX• Attended the December 2018 WUI Fire TTX #1• Attending March Command Staff TTX #3

• Chief Keith Bryant, U.S. Fire Administrator• Participated in pre-TTX planning meetings• Briefed project updates to the FEMA Administrator

Mr. Mark Ghilarducci, Director California Operations Emergency Service (CalOES)• Attended the December 2018 WUI Fire TTX #1• Attended the March Command Staff TTX #3

Report: https://www.dhs.gov/publication/st-wui-fire-operational-requirements-and-capability-analysis-report-findings

Throughout the course of the WUI Initiative, DHS S&T and U.S. Fire Administration (USFA) have engaged senior leadership from FEMA and

CalOES to ensure project objectives align with strategic intent and priorities.

3

Analytical Methodology

Tasks for tracking the current status of WUI fires

Tasks for projecting potential fire spread and impacts

Tasks for disseminating actionable information to at-risk populations

Tasks for moving at-risk populations out of harm’s way through organized or self-movement

Tasks for providing situational awareness for WUI fire responders

Tasks for hardening or adapting critical infrastructure during WUI fires

Tasks for detecting WUI-risk ignitions

Tasks undertaken pre-incidentPreparedness

DHS S&T and USFA developed an analytical framework to investigate WUI Fire capability requirements and gaps across eight elements of the WUI fire

mission, emphasizing capabilities most important for lifesaving.

Detection

Tracking

Forecasting

Public Information & Warning

Evacuation

Responder Safety

Critical Infrastructure

Through literature review and modified Delphi technique used during TTXs, the study team identified information requirements (i.e. needs) for each mission element

USFA and S&T SMEs examined requirements and identified related capability gaps

Gaps are the delta between requirements and current capability

Step 1: Define Mission Elements Step 2: Elicit Requirements and Identify Gaps

Efforts are ongoing to validate, prioritize gaps and describe findings.

Criteria used to prioritize gaps include:− Feasibility (Available, Adaptable, Developable) − Affordability (Low cost, Moderate, Expensive)− Usability (Easy, Moderate, Difficult)− Impact (Low, Medium, High)

Step 3: Prioritize Gaps and Describe Findings

4

Wildfire Timeline

Tasks for hardening or adapting critical infrastructure during WUI fires

Tasks undertaken pre-incident

Preparedness

Detection

Tracking

Forecasting

Public Information & Warning

Evacuation

Responder Safety

Critical Infrastructure

Wildfire Mission Elements Before Ignition

Assurance of critical infrastructure resilience is a complex, unsolved challenge of national urgency

5

Preparedness revolves around changes in zoning which is proven beneficial but limited impact on tomorrow risks

Wildfire Mission Elements After Ignition

Tasks for projecting potential fire spread and impacts

Forecasting Multiple natural and man-made ignitions for many seasonal weather and vegetation scenarios

Non-Technology Gaps1) Support efforts to educate the public on WUI fire risks and integrate existing

education programs into broader disaster education efforts.2) Support a systematic approach to address the needs of the AFN population

to include tailored information, warning, and evacuation support before and during WUI fire incidents by sharing practices, establishing standards, creating regulation, etc. in conjunction with Key Finding #2.

3) Design and socialize standards to create uniform national evacuation doctrine to propagate consistent evacuation terminology, authorities, and thresholds.

4) Expand training and exercise programs to improve interagency and cross-disciplinary coordination in support of wildfire operations.

5) Encourage broader adoption of physical mitigation measures (e.g., building codes) through grant investment, continued education of best practices and risks, and retrofitting.

6) Increase infrastructure resilience, especially critical infrastructure lifelines and support functions.

7) Disseminate best management practices on utilizing new technologies by sponsoring conferences and workshops and issuing best practice guidance and lessons learned from pilot programs, successful case studies, and proven implementations across various jurisdictions and agencies.

6

AHP Investment Decision MethodologyThe analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a multi-attribute value analysis technique for organizing and analyzing complex decisions, based on mathematics and subjective judgement.

7

Saving Lives

Gaps / Requirements

Technologies

Criteria Weighing Process

8

Criteria Weight

Impactful 47.91%

Adaptability 20.58%

Alignment 12.10%

Usability 9.98%

Affordability 9.44%

Overlapping Diagram of Top 4 Prioritized Technologies for Different Investment Perspectives (Budget, Leadership, Operations, Programmatic, Strategic Alignment)

High Impact

CompositeTechnologyScore

Mission Segmentation

Diagram shows those technologies supporting for four different investment perspectives or decision lens.

IPAWS

Technology Efficiency

WIFIREGOES WAZE ATAK

InterraCAWFELanceDunamiLexisNexssIrwinWFRAS

FASMEETeam ConnectFire Family PlusLANDFIRECO-FPSPathfinder

ArcGIS

18

Seven (7) Key Technology Findings

10

Mission Element Focus Findings

Preparedness & Forecasting

Support fire modeling

Support broader use of existing fire modeling and forecasting tools for pre-incident planning; while also advancing efforts to create high-confidence, timely WUI fire-specific models that can be used to inform response tactics during extreme conditions.

Fire Detection & Tracking

Utilize Remote Sensing

Implement and scale the use of state-of-the-art remote sensing assets to provide state and local stakeholders real-time, accurate, low-cost ignition detection and tracking information—especially fire perimeter using a mix of in situ, aerial, and space-based systems.

Critical Infrastructure

Improve interoperability & resilience

Increase infrastructure resilience, especially critical infrastructure lifelines and support functions for wildland fire response—e.g., improve the resilience, interoperability, and reliability of communications, power utilities, digital links, and data center infrastructure.

Evacuation Use social media Improve use of key public and private social media and internet resources and capabilities to appropriately share data and adapt existing applications to enable more efficient and effective evacuation—e.g., expand and accelerate public-private partnerships through Integrated Public Alert and Warnings System (IPAWS) to include WUI incident-related evacuations, warning, and alerting.

Public Alert & Warning

Targeted Alerts Improve the ability of available and adaptable public alert and warning technologies to deliver more targeted and effective message across the whole community, particularly to individuals with disabilities and others with access and functional needs (AFN).

Public Information

Improve public safety situational awareness

Integrate private, open, and crowdsourced data, resources, and capabilities to improve public safety situational awareness of WUI fire ignition detection and tracking.

Responder Safety

Interoperable data & image exchange

Support wide-scale adoption of interoperable, low-cost blue-force tracking technologies that feed near real-time situational awareness across key stakeholders, missions, and operations

Key Technology Quick Wins

11

WAZE - Helping people help themselves get out of harm’s way

GOES - Early detection often leads to early extinguishment saving lives and property.

ATAK - Enabling all responders to communicate with voice and data to each other

WIFIRE - Forecasting enables effective preparedness & infrastructure resilience

Evolving R&D OpportunitiesAddressing the big problems of infrastructure, public education and preparedness that are vital in reducing lives lost and property damage

• Mitigation revolves around changes in building ordinances, design guidelines, and zoning which are proven but may have limited effectiveness for tomorrow risks

• Assurance of critical infrastructure (transportation, power, and communications) resilience is a big, unsolved challenge of national urgency

• Enhanced solutions for fire deterrence and suppression using smart technologies and adaptive materials are opportunities for fortified structures and critical infrastructure

12

Morning Break!

13

WUI Scenario Snapshot

14

Module I. IgnitionDay 1, 1000 PST

Flames reported in areas across Chelan, Kittitas, and Okanogan Counties.

Module II. Localized ImpactsDay 1, 1100 – 1600 PST

Fire rapidly grows and pushes downhill towards city resulting in evacuation orders. Fire progresses, pushes into several neighborhoods, jumping highway, grounds

small aircraft, and reducing visibility.

Module III. Multi-Jurisdiction FireDay 2, 0800 – 1700 PST

Spot fires have been reported across the state. The fire rapidly grows and has completely destroyed one town

and threatens additional communities. Fiber-optic cables are melted and cell towers knocked out. Multiple

fires across several jurisdictions threaten at-risk and AFN populations. Power outages complicate response efforts. The Governor requests a FMAG declaration.

A scenario consisted of a series of ignitions, which quickly expand into increasingly large fires threatening populated areas

Requirement Outcomes from Three Table Top Exercises (TTX)

Outcomes Number

Total Technology & Non-Technology Gaps Identified 47

Technology Gaps Identified 29

Technology Requirements Identified 37

Technologies Identified 51

15

Classification Categories Examples

Technology Hardware, Software, Organizational protocolsNon-Technology Policy, Public Education, Standards, Training

Terms DefinitionsRequirements The information needed to make life-saving decisions Gaps The delta between requirements and current capability

AHP Application to Wildfire Technology Requirements

Goal: Rank solution investment decisions to maximize benefits / impact / save livesCriteria: Feasibility, Affordability, Usability, and Impact. The intent is to characterize orders of magnitude for alternative solutions.

Alternative solutions as identified by Tech Scouting

Metric Definition Value

Feasibility

Available: (COTS / GOTS < 1 year) 1

Adaptable: (1 -2 years) 2

Developable: (> 2 years) 3

Affordability

Low: Discretionary funds or within existing program resources 1

Medium: Resources available through application of current funding mechanisms 2

Major (Investment available through legislation or establishment of new programs) 3

Usability

Low within existing program resources) 1

Modest ( several hurtles, significant resources required) 2

High (major hurtles and regulatory restrictions) 3

Impact

Low (incremental effect on decreasing lives lost) 3

Modest (continuous evolutionary effect on decreasing lives lost) 2

High (transformational capability that will significantly decrease lives lost) 1

16

Mission Elements

This bar chart shows the number of scored technologies by mission element. Note that this chart counts all identified technologies which fulfill requirements; not just

unique technologies.

11

Top High Impact Technologies For Each Mission

18

Mission Element

Technology

Preparedness WIFIRE Predicts where and how fast a wildfire will spread. It develops real-time forecast using a robust array of sensor data.

Detection GOES Provides real-time and continuous identification of heat sources to detect ignition location

Tracking GOES Provides real-time and continuous identification of heat sources to display fire spread

Forecasting WIFIRE Predicts where and how fast a wildfire will spread. It develops real-time forecast using a robust array of sensor data.

Public Information

IPAWS Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) is the nation’s alert and warning infrastructure to provide the public with life-saving information quickly.

Evacuation WAZE WAZE is a popular mobile traffic routing app when combined with fire department interface combined data will greatly improve the chances of a quick and safe evacuation from an area.

Responder Safety

ATAK Android Team Awareness Kit (ATAK) is a communications system that enables the user to communicate in a secure environment with other approved users

Critical Infrastructure

ArcGIS ArcGIS enables sharing of maps, data, and applications for use by other federal agencies as well as the public.

Top 10 Technologies

Rank Solution NameTechnology

ScoreRequirement Addressed

1 WIFIRE 5 R17

2 ATAK 5.4 R25

3 FASMEE 5.7 R27

4 Team Connect 6 R255 Fire Family Plus 6.2 R29

6 LANDFIRE 6.2 R29

7 WAZE 6.2 R46

8 Hawkeye / GOES 6.3 R15

9 CO-FPS 6.6 R28

10 Pathfinder 6.6 R52

19

Top Scoring Technologies for Mission – Requirement Mapping

20

Mission Segmentation

High Impact

Technology Alignment

Technology Score

WIFIRE WIFIRE WIFIRE WIFIRE

GOES ATAK Intterra ATAK

IPAWS Waze ATAK FASMEE

WAZE ArcGIS CAWFE Team Connect

ATAK GOES LANCE Fire Family Plus

Tanka Dunami LANDFIRE

CAWFE LexisNexis WAZE

IRWIN IRWIN GOES

LANDFIRE GOES CO-FPS

IPAWS WFRAS Pathfinder

Investment Strategy – Two Way Assessment

Ope

ratio

nal A

sses

smen

t

Low

Hig

h

High Operational, Low Alignment *High Operational, High Alignment*

Low Operational, Low Alignment Low Operational, High Alignment

Low High

Alignment to Mission Areas

A

C

B

D

16

Detection – NOAA GOES Satellites Gap: Detection of WUI fire ignitions is not fast enough. Description: The sooner fire services can detect an ignition, the sooner they can

adopt appropriate mitigation and response actions for the fire. − If an ignition is detected immediately, it can be extinguished with little expended

resources or loss of life. − Responders with crowdsourced detection systems—such as high population

areas in Southern California—worry less about hastening ignition detection. Potential Solution: Advance state of the art for automated, seamless, rapid

remote sensing for early fire detection, imaging, tracking, and modeling.

The early ignition that lead to the 2018 Camp Fire

This satellite image displays 24/7 possible fire ignitions across North America

Preparedness

Detection

Tracking

Forecasting

Public Information &

Warning

Evacuation

Responder Safety

Critical Infrastructure

22

Evacuation – Waze Interface Gap: Insufficient public-private

partnerships with crowdsourced routing technology applications.

Description: Fire services recommend leveraging social media data to inform the common operating picture and explore how popular navigation applications can provide up-to-date information on escape routes and refuge areas.

Potential Solution: Develop guidance to social media applications (e.g., Waze) to improve emergency evacuation.

− Social media platforms, such as Facebook, use a check-in feature which allows people to share when they have successfully escaped the danger-area of an incident. In California, there were reported instances of Waze directing evacuees through the active fire area.

Example of Waze real-time routing around obstructed/closed roads

Preparedness

Detection

Tracking

Forecasting

Public Information &

Warning

Evacuation

Responder Safety

Critical Infrastructure

23

ATAK – Blue Force Tracking Gap: Lack inventory of available

resources from response partners hinders operations.

Description: Insufficient information sharing with all disciplines and jurisdictions to create a common operating picture. Fire services lack precise "blue-force" or GPS-enabled personnel tracking capabilities

Potential Solution: ATAK with Team Connect is a cloud-native server application that facilitates exchange of situational awareness (SA) data. The Team Connect solution brokers communication and collaboration of information to multiple end user clients. As an information broker, the Team Connect application does not perform Situational Awareness (SA) information processing but does provide bridging adapters to inject and export SA data securely in real time. Team Connect uses a commercially available database to store the SA information that flows through it.

Example of ATAK’s real-time resource tracking

Preparedness

Detection

Tracking

Forecasting

Public Information &

Warning

Evacuation

Responder Safety

Critical Infrastructure

24

WIFRE– Forecasting Infrastructure Risks Gap: Forecasting accurately

wildfire spread is often very difficult due to limited vegetation data, wind anomalies and complexity of fire dynamics .

Description: Decision-making about priorities (e.g., life, property, wildland) can greatly benefit from extensive simulations

LANDSAT fire imagery overlaid with streets of Chico, CA on 11/8/2018.

Preparedness

Detection

Tracking

Forecasting

Public Information &

Warning

Evacuation

Responder Safety

Critical Infrastructure

Potential Solution: Advance state of the art satellites for automated, rapid remote imaging analysis for early fire detection, imaging, and tracking essential for building the underlying databases and validating the models.

25

Quick Win Action Plans• USFA is working with S&T on options to assist SLTT organizations

to acquire, operationally integrate, train and maintain high impact technologies such as ATAK.

• S&T ‘s Center for Innovative Technology (CIT) In conjunction with our partners Smart City Works, LLC and TechNexus (SCITI Labs team) is soliciting proposals from innovators with capabilities in Ground-Based Wildfire Sensors at the Urban Interface to support our focus on critical structure.

• NOAA is in the process of establishing a new initiative to alert SLTT organizations in the vicinity of highly likely wildfire ignitions using is GOES satellites with a pilot test in California.

• FEMA is working with Google/WAZE to allow input from SLTT organizations to enter guidance for safe evacuation in light of predicted wildfire spread.

26