Nov.29,2012

About ACES §  The Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy

(ACES) affiliated to China University of Petroleum at Beijing is an independent school level research and teaching unit.

§  The newly established ACES is a multidisciplinary institute which covers resources, economics, finance, management and political science.

§  Dean ZHANG Guobao is the former Minister of National Energy Administration.

§  Overview of Oil and Gas in China

§  The Reality of pricing mechanism

§  Influences and the future of pricing reform

Outline

3

2000

Coal, 70.9

Oil, 16.5

Gas, 4.3

Non-fossil fuel, 8.3

2010

4

Coal,

67.8

Oil, 23.2

Gas, 2.4

Non-fossil fuel, 6.7

1.3 Bt 3.3 Bt standard coal equivalent

China Energy Consumption Mix

•  China’s SPRs program is mainly to reduce the impact of crude supply disruption.

•  Phase I : 16.4 million m3 or 103 million bbl (approximately 31 days of net imports or 15 days of total consumption) in four sites

•  Target for Phase II: Another 26.8 million m3 or 169 million bbl, totaling 272 million bbl (approximately 60 days of net imports or 33 days of total consumption).

•  Target for Phase III: To establish 500 million bbl of SPRs.

SPRs in China

6

Oil and gas pipeline infrastructure construction - 2015 TARGET: natural gas 130Bcm, CBM 10Bcm, shale gas 10Bcm - 2020 TARGET: natural gas 230Bcm, CBM 24Bcm, shale gas 20Bcm

LNG receiving terminal

Overseas Oil Investment Ø In 2011, Oil production in terms of equity:51.7 MT，Oil production in terms of equity:22.88 MT，Oil production in terms of equity: 10.00MT

China’s Overseas Oil Equity Production, 2000-2010

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CNPC/PetroChina CNOOC Sinopec Sinochem Otherskb/d

7  

8 8

Unit 2010

2015 （Target）

2020 （Target）

Primary energy supply 100Mt standard coal 29.9 35 38

Primary energy consumption

100Mt standard coal 32.5 41 48

Non-fossil fuel share in the energy mix % 8.3 11.4 15

Crude oil strategic reserve 100Mt 0.12 >0.4 >0.6

Natural gas strategic reserve 100Mcm 0 >30 >60

Energy intensity improvement (vs. 2005) % 19.1 32 40

China’s energy target

§  Overview of Oil and Gas in China

§  The Reality of pricing mechanism

§  Influences and the future of pricing reform

Outline

9

Oil and Gas Pricing Mechanism

Pricing Mechanism

Crude oil，Kerosene Quasi Market Price

Diesel, Gasoline Regulated Market Price

Fuel oil Market Oriented Price

Natural Gas Regulated Price (Guangdong and Guang Xi Test)

Refined Oil Pricing Reform

§  1998-2003, linked to International refined oil price;

Ø Reference to Singapore, Rotterdam, NY

§  2003-2008,Regualted by NDRC according to International Crude Oil Price;

§  2009- linked to International Crude oil price

Ø Reference to Dubai, Brent and Cinta

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Refined Oil Price Adjustment since 2008

12

Current natural gas pricing mechanism in China

Natural gas pricing reform in Guangdong and Guangxi

§  Overview of Oil and Gas in China

§  The Reality of pricing mechanism and Test

§  Influences and the future of pricing reform

Outline

15

Refined Oil Pricing Reform

§  Benchmark change: Cinta to WTI?

§  Adjustment periods:22 days-10days?

§  Volatility change:4%-lower?

§  Finally, market oriented pricing mechanism.

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Natural Gas Pricing

§  The performance of Guangdong-Guangxi reform; §  The strategic importance of natural gas in China

energy consumption mix in the near future; §  The natural gas pricing will change to more

market oriented than cost plus model. §  This possible change may stimulate gas

production as well as import in the future.

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Any Comments are welcome!