notes - springer978-0-230-50353... · 2017-08-27 · notes 1 introduction 1. world bank (1993);...

52
Notes 1 Introduction 1. World Bank (1993); Lucas (1993). It will be clear from the argument devel- oped in the subsequent chapters that the treatment of technology in these widely cited pieces leaves much to be desired. Innovation requires a base of physical and human capital; but it also requires an institutional set up, knowledge creation and application on a sustained basis. The concept of a POLIS is meant to capture these complex processes in a systemic manner. 2.The reader may note that the literature on the endogenous growth theory with interactions between human capital and R&D also offers prospects of sustained growth. Of course, critics in the past have pointed out that any theory that allows growth without limits ignores the second law of thermo- dynamics. See for example Georgescu-Roegen (1971), Daly and Cobb (1989) and Boulding (1966) among others. Therefore, the energy and environmen- tal constraints that might apply should be kept in mind. But for any such set of constraints the above conditions mentioned in the text are assumed to apply when a POLIS exists. 3 The Myth of an Asian Miracle? 1. Indeed after repeating the exercise for a cross-section of Asian economies separately, I could not reject this hypothesis either. 2. Unless one were to assume, in addition, that the ‘true’ depreciation rate is higher in the developing countries than in the developed countries, because of various factors such as the mix of outputs. However, we may also note that Japan, which is supposed to have a high ‘depreciation’ rate, also has a high estimated rate of capital augmentation. In any case, given the magni- tudes of the estimated capital augmentation rates of the developed countries, the implied ‘true’ depreciation rates would have to be implausibly high. 3. Another way in which there may be little or no net increase in value added, even with the adoption of new equipment and technology, is if critical com- ponents that are needed as intermediate inputs can be imported only at high monopolistic prices. Thus, the benefits of the new technology are appropri- ated by the foreign manufacturers and suppliers of the critical components. Examples of such critical components include microprocessors, liquid crystal displays, and MS-DOS and Microsoft Windows softwares for notebook computers; plastic lenses for cameras; and recording heads for video-camera recorders. 4 Making a Miracle: A New Approach 1. It seems to me that theories of both types engage in conceptualization and the exploration of logical relations among concepts. However, appreciative theory proceeds without the help of a formal mathematical apparatus most of the time. 130

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Page 1: Notes - Springer978-0-230-50353... · 2017-08-27 · Notes 1 Introduction 1. World Bank (1993); Lucas (1993). It will be clear from the argument devel-oped in the subsequent chapters

Notes

1 Introduction1. World Bank (1993); Lucas (1993). It will be clear from the argument devel-

oped in the subsequent chapters that the treatment of technology in thesewidely cited pieces leaves much to be desired. Innovation requires a base ofphysical and human capital; but it also requires an institutional set up,knowledge creation and application on a sustained basis. The concept of aPOLIS is meant to capture these complex processes in a systemic manner.

2. The reader may note that the literature on the endogenous growth theorywith interactions between human capital and R&D also offers prospects ofsustained growth. Of course, critics in the past have pointed out that anytheory that allows growth without limits ignores the second law of thermo-dynamics. See for example Georgescu-Roegen (1971), Daly and Cobb (1989)and Boulding (1966) among others. Therefore, the energy and environmen-tal constraints that might apply should be kept in mind. But for any such setof constraints the above conditions mentioned in the text are assumed toapply when a POLIS exists.

3 The Myth of an Asian Miracle?1. Indeed after repeating the exercise for a cross-section of Asian economies

separately, I could not reject this hypothesis either.2. Unless one were to assume, in addition, that the ‘true’ depreciation rate is

higher in the developing countries than in the developed countries, becauseof various factors such as the mix of outputs. However, we may also notethat Japan, which is supposed to have a high ‘depreciation’ rate, also has ahigh estimated rate of capital augmentation. In any case, given the magni-tudes of the estimated capital augmentation rates of the developed countries,the implied ‘true’ depreciation rates would have to be implausibly high.

3. Another way in which there may be little or no net increase in value added,even with the adoption of new equipment and technology, is if critical com-ponents that are needed as intermediate inputs can be imported only at highmonopolistic prices. Thus, the benefits of the new technology are appropri-ated by the foreign manufacturers and suppliers of the critical components.Examples of such critical components include microprocessors, liquid crystaldisplays, and MS-DOS and Microsoft Windows softwares for notebookcomputers; plastic lenses for cameras; and recording heads for video-camerarecorders.

4 Making a Miracle: A New Approach1. It seems to me that theories of both types engage in conceptualization and

the exploration of logical relations among concepts. However, appreciativetheory proceeds without the help of a formal mathematical apparatus mostof the time.

130

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2. Solow (1994) is an attempt to assess the achievements and the short-comings of the new growth theoretical models, as discussed later in thischapter.

3. Khan (1997a) presents some preliminary thoughts and a model (in Chapter2) emphasizing this point.

4. The recent debate on convergence can also be viewed in this context ascountries moving through different paths and different equilibria forming acomplex of dynamic trajectories.

5. As the subsequent discussion shows, complementarities between R&D andhuman capital may be far more important than has been thought previ-ously. This is a major aspect of the positive feedback loop innovationsystems discussed later.

6. Both types of specifications are possible in principle. In practice, as in thecase of South Korea in Chapter 5, the availability of data will often deter-mine what type of specification will be used.

7. If SAMs are available at regular intervals (Indonesia is one such country),then models with flexible prices, different closure rules, etc., can be con-structed over time.

8. This does not imply that these relationships are fixed. The reasonable inter-pretation is that for distinct two technology systems the range of co-variations among the different variables will show distinct and regularpatterns in each case. These covariational differences will then establish thedifferences between the two technology systems.

9. For a description of SAM as a data gathering device, see Pyatt andThorbecke (1976).

10. In Walrasian general equilibrium models the flexible price vector deter-mines the equilibrium. In a Keynesian (dis)equilibrium model in the shortrun the quantities vary while the price vector remains fixed. It is, of course,possible to build more complex models of CGE variety based on bothorthodox and heterodox economic theories.

11. See Khan and Thorbecke (1976) ch. III; the presentations here follow thecited work closely.

12. Ibid.13. See Pyatt and Round (1979).

5 Korea: The Making of a POLIS?1. As emphasized earlier, the evolutionary approach to technology followed

here is definitely not a mechanical theory. Even in the economic realm,complexities and uncertainties in economic interaction will take the analysisfurther from standard practice. The challenge is to do this in a rigorous and(if possible) formal framework.

2. The SAM-TECH built by Thorbecke can be found in Svejnar and Thorbecke(1980, 1982).

6 Taiwan: Builing a POLIS1. Of course, it is not being claimed that having an apparently self-sustaining

innovation structure in one sector is sufficient for a POLIS. For this we mustexamine the economy-wide linkages.

Notes 131

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Conclusions1. World Bank (1993) and Fishlow et al. (1994) present two divergent

approaches and conclusions on this.2. See also the discussion by Crocker (1995) and Khan (2001b).

132 Notes

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ACER 81, 85 ,86, 87Alam, Shahid 3Amann’s fixed point theorems 6Amsden, Alice 3Arrow, K.J. 33, 35, 61Arthur, Brian 35, 36Asian Development Bank 145

backward linkages 47, 49, 51Banach space 6, 43, 45bank 10, 11, 12, 66, 67, 75, 90, 95,

98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104,106, 107

Bank of Taiwan 121Bardhan, P. 62

capabilities 6, 48, 67, 73, 138, 140,157, 164

capital augmentation rate 20capital market 99, 106, 107, 108,

109, 110, 133Central Trust of China 57Chandlerian economies of scale 126compact 45, 46complexity 6, 35, 40, 41, 171consumption 15

diffusion channels 84diffusion of technology 66diffusion technology 134, 137, 141,

143, 144, 146, 147, 171, 172, 175disequilibrium 42, 52, 151, 159

East Asian miracle 14, 17, 30, 39employment 48, 49, 50, 51, 76, 151,

153, 156, 157, 170endogenous accounts 43, 53, 54exogenous accounts 43, 53, 54

FDI (foreign direct investment)42–3, 65, 69

financial liberalization 96, 97, 98,117, 121, 127

financial structures 95, 105financial system 95, 103, 104, 105,

106, 107, 110, 114, 118, 119, 120,121

Friedman, Milton 123

GDP 9, 12, 21, 23, 29

Hanbo group 8Hobday, Michael 81, 82, 83, 85, 86,

87, 88, 150, 169HPAEs (high-performing Asian

economies) 8, 9, 10, 31human capital 3, 5, 6, 9, 10, 13, 14,

16, 19, 20, 23, 24, 34, 37, 38, 39,49, 60, 64, 71, 77, 82

imitative 83, 92, 122increasing returns 6, 22, 30, 35, 42,

43, 60, 61, 62, 75, 76, 91, 135,156, 161, 168

innovation system 1, 5, 17, 32, 37,39, 40, 41, 42, 46, 47, 56, 60, 61,64, 68, 69, 75, 77, 91, 140, 150,153, 154, 163

Inter-American Development Bank174

interest rate 67

James, Jeffrey 3, 49, 50, 51, 140, 151

Kaldor, Nicholus 35, 61, 62Kaldor–Mirrlees model 61Khan, Haides A. 3, 5, 37, 38, 49, 50,

51, 52, 53, 54, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68,74, 75, 125

Kim, Euysung 3, 75King, Gregory 51Korean Development Bank 101, 155Krugman, Pane 3, 4, 5, 18, 19, 24,

35, 36, 39, 59

lattice 6

179

Index

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Lau, Lawrence J. 3, 19, 20, 21, 22,23, 24, 29, 30, 59, 89, 137, 154,157, 158

Lucas, R.E. 3, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17,33, 37, 61, 130, 159

marginal expenditure propensity 55marginal productivity 23, 31Ministry of Finance (MOF) 11Ministry of Science and Technology

(MOST) 73Ministry of Trade and Industry (MITI)

11modern systems of technology 3modern technology 1, 48, 49, 50,

51, 52, 55, 64, 65, 68, 73, 76, 79,80, 89, 125, 173

modSAM-Tech 75, 76, 90, 91money market 106, 107, 108, 109,

110multiple equllibria 5, 6, 35, 36, 37,

38, 40, 41, 43, 44, 45, 48, 60

Nelson, Richard 1, 2, 3, 30, 31neoclassical growth model 3neoclassical growth theory 29new growth theory 32, 35, 36, 37,

61, 62, 131newly industrializing economics

(NIEs) 8, 12, 24, 29, 37non-linear 36, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44,

46, 52, 60non-linearities 42, 47, 52, 60Nussbaum, Martha 129, 140, 164,

171

OECD 34OEM (original equipment

manufacturing) 85, 86, 87, 88,150

Pack, Howard 2, 3, 30, 31Page, John D 31POLIS 5, 6, 7, 19, 24, 41, 42, 46, 47,

53, 59, 60, 61, 62, 64, 65, 67, 68,69, 70

productive activity 5, 42, 43productivity growth 2, 4, 14, 15, 17,

24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 37, 62, 64

productivity miracles 13Pyatt, Graham 51

QWERTY 36

R&D 6, 21, 22, 23, 30, 71, 73, 80,82, 85, 88, 89, 91, 95, 126, 130,131, 133, 137, 140, 148, 155, 159,160, 162

R&D link 56Robinson, Joan 35Robinson, Sherman 12Rodrik, Dani 126Romer, Paul M. 32, 33, 34, 37, 61

SAMs (social accounting matrices)6, 41, 42, 43, 46, 47, 49, 50, 51,52, 53, 54, 55, 73

SAM-Tech 67, 73, 74, 75, 76, 81, 89,90, 131

Schumpeter, Joseph A. 2Schumpeterian 47Sen, A.K. 61, 129, 164, 170, 171small and medium business 144Smith, Adam 35, 39Solow, Robert 4, 32state v. market debate 4, 6Stewart, Frances 47, 48, 172, 173Stone, Richard 51strategic complementarity 23, 37,

39, 60, 167strategic industry 120strategy 12, 13, 15, 17, 52, 53, 57,

59, 60, 66, 68, 69, 70, 75, 78, 80,83, 89, 91, 92, 137, 138, 140, 141,150, 157, 165, 168

Tarski’s fixed-point theorem 6, 45,63

Tatung 81, 83, 85TDPA (Technology Development

Promotion Act) 65technological spillovers 34technology 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 13, 14,

17, 19, 20, 21, 22, 27, 30, 32, 33,35, 36, 37, 39

technology systems 36, 40, 41, 42,43, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 55,56, 57, 58, 60, 62

180 Index

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Thorbecke, Erik 38, 51, 52, 53, 54, 74,131, 134, 141, 153, 166, 174, 175

technology imports 65total factor productivity (TFP) 4, 17,

24, 25, 26, 27, 30, 34, 39, 58, 60,89, 139, 144, 145, 150

unemployment 91, 146United Fiber Optic Communications

Inc. (UFOC) 88

venture capital 67

Washington Consensus 127Weitzman, Martin 11World Bank 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12,

133, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141,152, 156, 157, 158

Young, Alwyn 3, 14, 19, 24, 25, 27,29, 31, 89, 165, 178

Index 181