notes on bargaining 1.what is bargaining 2.bargaining power 3.issue of communication
TRANSCRIPT
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Notes on bargaining
1. What is bargaining
2. Bargaining power
3. Issue of communication
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Conflict and bargaining• In conflict situations:
– Pure conflict: zero-sum game– Pure cooperation: common goals and interests: a coordination game– Most cases: mixed actors want to coordinate but over different
outcomes: thus, both of a bargaining and coordination game• Actors are willing to coordinate• Actors prefer different outcomes• Thus, actors need to bargain over the distribution of costs and benefits
– Bargaining is the process through which actors coordinate their positions or expectations over possible outcomes
• Transferring of information• Signalling commitment• e.g. rules of an IGO; agreement over the outcome of a civil war
– Bargaining theory: explains how rational actors try to influence each other’s expectations (and positions) to resolve a conflict.
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Bargaining power
• Bargaining power: the ability of a rational actor to influence other actors to modify their expectations and positions.
• Elements of bargaining power:– It is relative not absolute (e.g. depends on the issue
area that is negotiated)– It should be strategic
• Brute force is not always an option; bargaining power is based on potential use of power rather than its application
– Commitment• Use of threats and promises to affect other actors• Threats and promises must be credible• Showing commitment is a way to signal credibility
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A few bargaining tips to consider
• An effective threat is one that hurts you more than the opponent (e.g. burning bridges, ships, etc.): signalling commitment
• Sometimes fewer options can be a strategic advantage: reduce freedom of action
• Sometimes it is better to relinquish initiative: e.g. US blockade in Cuban Missile Crisis.
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Communicating incentives and commitment
• Signalling intentions– Audience costs
• Domestic and international
– For signalling to work it must be costly, cheap talk does not work in bargaining.
• Types of bargaining given the nature of communication
• explicit (actors communicate with words)– Official and unofficial diplomacy (track one and two
respectively)
• tacit (actors communicate through actions)– E.g. prior behaviour, audience costs