not yet, but soon more signs we’re headed in the right direction · 2020-06-23 · right...

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Not Yet, But Soon The world will get past this virus— that’s a certainty. But it’s going to take a while. And as we move into the next flu season, the risks of COVID-19 may well increase. But for now, the US economic data shows a way back to normal. The jobs report for May showed a remarkable surge of over 2.5 million new jobs. And with a rising participation rate, it also meant that the unemployment rate dropped to 13.3%. That’s huge but far better than expectations. Wages are up significantly for the second month in a row, running at a gain of 6.7%. And this good employment news showed up in a 17.7% surge in retail sales for May, providing a building block for recovery. The household savings rate also hit a peak of 33%, which means there’s plenty of disposable income for more consumption and investment. The forward-looking Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is also rebounding, indicating that households are more confident now and looking to the future. Businesses are also turning around their outlook. The New York Fed’s Business Leaders Index for current conditions is now back above the multi-year average. And the survey for expected conditions in six months is strongly above the dramatic low at the end of April. All of this is good news. But COVID- 19 cases are surging again throughout the US to a level exceeding 2.2 million, with little signs of slowing down. And some localities are relocking their economies and businesses. This will bring the coronavirus back to front- page news and will have impacts on the economic recovery and the markets. Yet, the status of the companies in our model portfolios remains positive, our bond investments remain secure and there are still plenty of opportunities for further growth and income—even with growing virus threats and an uncertain earnings season upon us. July 2020 VOL. 31, NO. 7 More Signs We’re Headed in the Right Direction Dear friend, The US continues to transition out of the economic shutdowns that put businesses into limbo and millions into stay-at-home mode. But there is still no vaccine or treatment for COVID-19. Cases of the virus are skyrocketing again, this time across the country, not just in a couple of major cities. The news cycle moved on to other issues, but I continue to have concerns that the financial markets aren’t out of the woods and are at risk of downdrafts in the coming weeks. At the same time, economic data is increasingly encouraging. The economic tune rose with the dramatic crescendo of booming retail sales gains. And the follow through of industrial production gains and declining business inventories kept the positive tune playing. The second verse may well continue that theme, with consumers and C-suite executives showing growing optimism. The S&P 500 continues to climb from the March 23 low along with the major US bond market indexes. This gives the appearance that the all-clear signal is here. But COVID-19 cases and deaths are back on the rise, and some companies and organizations are reclosing stores and suspending operations. A pause or a drop in that economic recovery can’t be ruled out. Nonetheless, there are still plenty of investments to buy for further growth and income. In this issue, I’ll outline two major areas I’m focused on right now—ESG (Environmental, Social & Governance) and the highly dependable segment of the market that deals with government contracts. I’ll present my focused recommendations as well as my ongoing analysis of the economy, the markets and the holdings already in our model portfolios. Growth Strategies So Much Improvement, So Much Continued Risk Looking at the stock market, it appears that all is quickly getting back to better for the US economy. The S&P 500 Index has returned nearly 40% since March 23 on the back of massive Federal Reserve buying of nearly everything in the credit markets as well as parts of the stock market. Of course, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act along with additional aid from the administration via the US Treasury only added to the bullish sentiment. The S&P 500 is now positive for the trailing year by about 8%, proving that having a plan to work through even the most dire challenges has its rewards. The US bond market also has been performing exceedingly well. With the Fed buying just about every sort of bond, loan and credit security as well as bond ETFs, the overall market as tracked by the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index has a 4.8% return since March 23. That might not sound like much, but on an annual basis it amounts to a return of 21.6%, which is absolutely huge. And it gets even better for the types of bonds that I’ve been recommending. US Corporate bonds have returned 16.6%, for an annualized return of 89%, and US Municipal bonds have returned 10.3%, or 50.1% annualized. (continued)

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Page 1: Not Yet, But Soon More Signs We’re Headed in the Right Direction · 2020-06-23 · Right Direction Dear friend, The US continues to transition out of the economic shutdowns that

Not Yet, But SoonThe world will get past this virus—

that’s a certainty. But it’s going to take a while. And as we move into the next flu season, the risks of COVID-19 may well increase. But for now, the US economic data shows a way back to normal.

The jobs report for May showed a remarkable surge of over 2.5 million new jobs. And with a rising participation rate, it also meant that the unemployment rate dropped to 13.3%. That’s huge but far better than expectations. Wages are up significantly for the second month in a row, running at a gain of 6.7%.

And this good employment news showed up in a 17.7% surge in retail sales for May, providing a building block for recovery. The household savings rate also hit a peak of 33%, which means there’s plenty of disposable income for more consumption and investment. The forward-looking Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is also rebounding, indicating that households are more confident now and looking to the future.

Businesses are also turning around their outlook. The New York Fed’s Business Leaders Index for current conditions is now back above the multi-year average. And the survey for expected conditions in six months is strongly above the dramatic low at the end of April.

All of this is good news. But COVID-19 cases are surging again throughout the US to a level exceeding 2.2 million, with little signs of slowing down. And some localities are relocking their economies and businesses. This will bring the coronavirus back to front-page news and will have impacts on the economic recovery and the markets.

Yet, the status of the companies in our model portfolios remains positive, our bond investments remain secure and there are still plenty of opportunities for further growth and income—even with growing virus threats and an uncertain earnings season upon us.

July 2020

Vol. 31, No. 7

More Signs We’re Headed in the Right DirectionDear friend,

The US continues to transition out of the economic shutdowns that put businesses into limbo and millions into stay-at-home mode.

But there is still no vaccine or treatment for COVID-19. Cases of the virus are skyrocketing again, this time across the country, not just in a couple of major cities. The news cycle moved on to other issues, but I continue to have concerns that the financial markets aren’t out of the woods and are at risk of downdrafts in the coming weeks.

At the same time, economic data is increasingly encouraging. The economic tune rose with the dramatic crescendo of booming retail sales gains. And the follow through of industrial production gains and declining business inventories kept the positive tune playing. The second verse may well continue that theme, with consumers and C-suite executives showing growing optimism.

The S&P 500 continues to climb from the March 23 low along with the major US bond market indexes. This gives the appearance that the all-clear signal is here. But COVID-19 cases and deaths are back on the rise, and some companies and organizations are reclosing stores and suspending operations. A pause or a drop in that economic recovery can’t be ruled out.

Nonetheless, there are still plenty of investments to buy for further growth and income. In this issue, I’ll outline two major areas I’m focused on right now—ESG (Environmental, Social & Governance) and the highly dependable segment of the market that deals with government contracts.

I’ll present my focused recommendations as well as my ongoing analysis of the economy, the markets and the holdings already in our model portfolios.

Growth StrategiesSo Much Improvement, So Much Continued Risk

Looking at the stock market, it appears that all is quickly getting back to better for the US economy. The S&P 500 Index has returned nearly 40% since March 23 on the back of massive Federal Reserve buying of nearly everything in the credit markets as well as parts of the stock market.

Of course, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act along with additional aid from the administration via the US Treasury only added to the bullish sentiment. The S&P 500 is now positive for the trailing year by about 8%, proving that having a plan to work through even the most dire challenges has its rewards.

The US bond market also has been performing exceedingly well. With the Fed buying just about every sort of bond, loan and credit security as well as bond ETFs, the overall market as tracked by the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index has a 4.8% return since March 23. That might not sound like much, but on an annual basis it amounts to a return of 21.6%, which is absolutely huge.

And it gets even better for the types of bonds that I’ve been recommending. US Corporate bonds have returned 16.6%, for an annualized return of 89%, and US Municipal bonds have returned 10.3%, or 50.1% annualized.

(continued)

Page 2: Not Yet, But Soon More Signs We’re Headed in the Right Direction · 2020-06-23 · Right Direction Dear friend, The US continues to transition out of the economic shutdowns that

2 Profitable Investing | July 2020 | profitableinvesting.investorplace.com

Neil George’s Profitable Investing® (ISSN 2577-9311) is published monthly by InvestorPlace Media, LLC, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD, 21201. Please write or call if you have any questions. Phone: 800/211-8566. Email: [email protected]. Web site: profitableinvesting.investorplace.com

Editor: Neil George Chief Executive Officer: Brian Hunt Senior Managing Editor: David Tony Marketing Director: Katy Anadale Managing Editor: Gregg Early Chief Marketing Officer: Brad Hoppmann Managing Editor: Wola Odeniran Marketing Director: Mary Southard Editorial Director: Luis Hernandez Senior Designer: Marc Gagarin

Subscriptions: $249 per year. © 2019 by InvestorPlace Media, LLC, Founding Member of the Newsletter Publishers Association of America. Photocopying, reproduction or quotation strictly prohibited without the written permission of the publisher. While the information provided is based upon sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed, nor can the pub-lication be considered liable for the investment performance of any securities or strategies mentioned. Subscribers should review the full disclaimer and securities holdings disclosure policy at https://profitableinvesting.investorplace.com/disclaimers-and-disclosures or call 800/219-8592 for a mailed copy. Periodicals postage rates paid at Baltimore, MD, and at additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to Neil George’s Profitable Investing®, InvestorPlace Media, LLC, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD, 21201.

Not Just the FedAs you can see, the Fed has been

transformative for the US economy and markets. But the economy has been doing its best to draw investor and trader interest since March as well.

Let’s start with the big turn in jobs. The US Department of Labor saw the number of claims hit a high of 6.9 million on March 27 from the more usual level of 201,000 at the end of January. Since then, claims have been falling way down to the most recent level of 1.5 million. That is still a horrible number, but it shows that the bad news is improving rather than worsening.

The monthly jobs report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) started to show cracks in the March report with a loss of 1.4 million jobs, only to plunge horrifically to a loss of 20.7 million in April. But with the May report released at the beginning of June, it showed a gain of 2.5 million jobs.

This shows that as companies began to adapt to lockdown conditions, jobs began to come back. Simply put, the unemployment rate of 13.3% is way better than most were expecting.

But consumer spending is the core of the US economy and the prime driver for business revenues. It’s what underpins the US stock market. US retail sales began to quickly slide in February and March, only to plunge 14.7% in April on a monthly basis. Then, in May, retail sales soared 17.7%.

Unlike retail sales for prior months, May saw buying across all sorts of goods, including clothing and other discretionary goods. This shows that there’s pent up consumer demand that may well continue. And as I discussed in the June issue, while millions tragically lost jobs, the vast majority of the US workforce was able to keep their jobs, and wages continue to rise strongly. This provides the means to spend.

Also, savings have been soaring in the US. The average US personal savings rate as a percentage of

disposable income has gone from the multi-year average of 7.8% to a current level of 33%. That savings has built up in bank balances, which now represent a massive amount of dry powder for further potential spending.

And there’s more promise of consumer participation backed up by improving job market conditions, wages and savings. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is not just about how households are feeling now but also how they view their prospects and those of the overall US economy. This is a very important forward-looking index.

The Comfy Index plunged from all-time highs to a low of 34.7 in mid-May. But from May 17 through last week, it has recovered to 40.2.

Businesses Getting Back to Business

It’s not all about consumers, though. Businesses need to produce and sell more products and services. That’s improving as well. Monthly US Industrial Production, which had cratered from February through April, has begun to bounce back for May—a huge recovery move for US businesses.

This means factories as well as distribution centers all the way through to vendors and retailers, including Amazon (AMZN) in the Niche

Investments, are moving more stuff and generating more revenues.

But my favorite business gauge is the New York Fed’s Business Leaders Survey of C-suite executives. This reading hit a low in April at -94.3 only to climb in both May and June to a level of -82.3. This is still terrible, but it does show the beginnings of a turnaround.

What is more important is the outlook for six months out. Here, the index again hit a low in April at -30.7 only to climb into June to a positive level of 24.8. This means businesses are expecting better times and will be budgeting for more demand of their products and services.

Now, it’s way too early to begin to make any sort of evidence-heavy forecast of sales and earnings for the companies inside the S&P 500. The current second-quarter results will begin to roll in during July and August, and they will be messy for many companies.

But the key will be to look at the companies that have enough confidence to begin to offer more guidance for the second half of the year. That is what will begin to impact the markets.

Not Done YetThe big threat is still the COVID-19

virus. Openings have been underway

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Page 3: Not Yet, But Soon More Signs We’re Headed in the Right Direction · 2020-06-23 · Right Direction Dear friend, The US continues to transition out of the economic shutdowns that

Profitable Investing | July 2020 | profitableinvesting.investorplace.com 3

around the entire US to varying degrees. But virus cases are again rapidly increasing. US cases of the virus have surged to a current level of 2.3 million. But the really troubling data is the net change rate on a daily basis, which shows that new cases are growing by 33,900 a day. This is now near the record highs of new daily cases seen in March and April.

Relocking of state and local econo-mies is a serious risk for the economy and the markets, with many local authorities modifying lockdown proto-cols. Some companies are independently closing stores again in some areas of the US, including Apple (AAPL).

And sports events are now being questioned. Major League Baseball has suspended training and practice facilities after a swift rise in tested cases. And even my favorite sport,

golf, has seen its first player identified with the virus at the Heritage in Hilton Head, South Carolina.

I have done a lot of work on the status of the companies inside our model port-folios. Simply put, I looked at how well they could get through the virus mess and beyond, including their creditworthiness. I still believe that they remain in good shape overall, even if lockdowns reiniti-ate. However, the potential for relocking the economy means we could see some heavy down trading days in the US stock market in the coming weeks.

Focus on Key SectorsSince the March lows, the primary

sectors represented in our portfolios are all up, much more than for the S&P 500. The S&P Utilities Index has returned 28%, since many power markets are safe havens and are actually faring better than expected.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) have also delivered, with a return of 40.4%. More investors have parsed through REITs to discover the quality ones beyond the retail sector that are doing very well, with ample revenue.

Healthcare companies are also per-forming, with more focus on drug and vaccine developments now and in the future as well as delayed procedures and treatments now taking place. The S&P Healthcare Index has returned 35%, which shows the role of this important sector in the market and the economy.

But the sector that continues to win big is technology. Remote work and stay at home orders all point to the higher future value of technology in the US. The S&P Information Technology Index reflects this, with a return of 45.2%.

There are some sectors that I really want you to focus on right now that span various industries and companies. Environmental, social & governance (ESG) focused companies have been gaining for some time and rapidly rising over the trailing year. It isn’t just about being green, though. It’s about profits.

We’ve been in this space for a while, although I’ve not used the ESG tags for them much. But the demand by institutional investors’ clients and beneficiaries for ESG investment is pushing a wall of money towards ESG companies.

Then there’s the US government. The economic calamity in the US has demonstrated the importance and reliability of companies that have major contracts and guarantees by the US government. Government contracts are hard-won, but also hard to lose. And they’re reliable for companies to budget around for sustained revenues and profits.

As for ESG, we’re in plenty of companies with ample government contracts that can prove out during both tough times and flush times. Throughout this issue, I’ll present several companies—both new and existing holdings—that are best positioned to profit from both the ESG movement as well as government contracts.

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Business Leaders Current Business Conditions (Black) & Expected Conditions in Six Months (Blue)

Source:NY Fed & Bloomberg

Page 4: Not Yet, But Soon More Signs We’re Headed in the Right Direction · 2020-06-23 · Right Direction Dear friend, The US continues to transition out of the economic shutdowns that

4 Profitable Investing | July 2020 | profitableinvesting.investorplace.com

Proven Growth & IncomeESG for Soaring Growth (Yes, Seriously)

I’m sure some of you are onboard with ESG investing. And I’m sure some of you might think it’s bunk. For me, it’s not about a political view but rather what works in the stock and bond markets.

I had the tremendous privilege of meeting Dr. Milton Friedman, the Nobel Prize Laureate economist that was at the University of Chicago. He was an ardent supporter of the free market. And while ESG was not yet a common investment phrase, he was critical of companies that took efforts towards causes other than shareholders’ returns. He thought that by doing so, it made companies less productive and profitable and, in turn, restricted economic growth.

Today, ESG is a both a category of companies as well as a scoring mechanism for companies. The basic nature of ESG is that it is a means of investing that will not only provide growth and income, but it will do so in a manner that has a lighter environmental footprint, a greater positive contribution to society and is managed in a more transparent way while at the same time remaining focused on shareholders as well as other stakeholders.

Environmentally friendly means greater use or production of renewable or cleaner energy along with less impact in waste and material use. This is not a drag on most companies that continue to drive growth and more income from renewable and cleaner energy production.

Social concerns bring in the practice of involving more stakeholders in the decisions of companies. It means that companies are more aware of their impacts on communities as well as consumers. It can be a grab bag for lots of other causes, but at its core social responsibility should result in more favorable views of companies and treat-ments by governments and customers.

Governance includes better recognition of shareholders’ rights. This means

independent boards of directors, more transparency in executive compensation and greater disclosure of company activities and financial conditions. I’ve always been in favor of all of this, including separate CEO and Chairman of the Board positions, greater disclosure throughout the year and more information in the quarterly reports of business activities and finances, with less reliance on the very small print in the footnotes.

ESG is Rising in Demand & Performance

Individual investors are a small part of the stock and bond market. Institutional investors continue to dominate. And while many institutions are run privately for the benefit of their founders, more are run for the benefit of many different cohorts, like pension funds or endowments, which make up a large portion of the capital markets.

The beneficiaries of these funds are demanding that fund management invest more in ESG-compliant or ESG-focused companies. And historically, beneficiaries have had a large sway on fund management when it comes to targeted issues or agendas.

This is bringing the concept of ESG further into the boardrooms and C-suites of companies as well as fund managers directing more capital to ESG companies. And major fund managers are getting onboard.

BlackRock (BLK), in the Incredible Dividend Machine, continues to push further into ESG-focused investments. Larry Fink, the founder and CEO of the company, is a big proponent of

ESG and has led the asset management company to roll out a series of funds, including a major initiative in its dominating ETF product line up.

Perhaps that’s because the ESG market has been showing good performance. The S&P ESG Index has returned 192.8% over the trailing 10 years.

And over the past year, the ESG index has outperformed the S&P 500 by 38.4%. This shows that ESG can provide reliable returns and may well attract more capital for better returns than the general stock market going forward.

Now, ESG compliance is a squiggly bit of analysis. On my Bloomberg terminal, there is a function that takes a lot of compiled data and comes up with all sorts of embedded ESG criteria. This means that even Viper Energy (VNOM), the landlord of the Permian Basin inside the Total Return Portfolio, is not negatively rated in its ESG analysis.

So, compliance can be achieved across industries at some level. But I want to direct your attention principally to the environmental sector where I see some of the best opportunities right now.

Environmental Growth & Income

I’ll start in the utility sector. Renewable energy is now a big part of the business for the more successful companies. Government incentives have led many utilities to enter and expand in renewable energy. And state and local governments are mandating increased use of renewable energy as a percentage of power generation. This has led the poster child of the ESG utility market,

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Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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Profitable Investing | July 2020 | profitableinvesting.investorplace.com 5

NextEra Energy (NEE) in the Total Return Portfolio, to really perform.

NextEra is the largest wind and solar power company in the world. It has renewables deployed in its regulated South Florida utility business and has used its unregulated business to sell clean energy across the US. The stock has generated a return since added to the portfolio of 541.1%, and it has returned 21.6% for the trailing year, which is well above the return of the S&P 500. Yielding 2.3%, NEE remains an ESG buy under $264.50, ideally for a tax-free account.

Following the playbook of NextEra is Xcel Energy (XEL) in the Incredible Dividend Machine, which was brought up from the Niche Investments not long ago. It’s deploying renewable energy generation in its regulated markets and more so for its national unregulated business that serves nearly four million customers.

Over the past five years, it has gen-erated a return for shareholders of 132.8%, which is more than double the return of the S&P 500. And this past year, it has a positive return that’s also outpacing the S&P. Yielding 2.6% with its affirmed dividend, XEL remains an ESG buy under $68.50, ideally for a tax-free account.

But one of the best ESG opportunities right now is Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (HASI) in the Total Return Portfolio. Hannon Armstrong provides financing for renewable energy and related projects. It’s set up as a REIT, which allows it to avoid corporate income tax. That means more cash for dividends. And thanks to the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), the dividends come with a 20% deduction at tax time.

But what makes the company even better as a shareholder isn’t just the renewable energy projects or the tax reductions or the dividend income. Its financed projects come with government guarantees. This provides a backstop for the company and shareholders, which in the current economy is all the more attractive, if not vital.

It’s off about 9% since we added it at the end of 2019. But since the general stock market low in March to date, the shares are powering up for a very green

return of 59%. And with more ESG-seeking investors, I see this company gaining more notice. It’s still a value, as the stock is trading at a mere 1.85 times its intrinsic book value, which is cheap for a REIT and more so for a government-guarantee-wielding financial. Yielding 4.7%, HASI remains a buy under $32.25, ideally for a taxable account.

More Proven Growth & IncomeThe Helping Hand of Government

The US government has never gotten smaller. It just keeps expanding. And while plenty of politicos may complain, it’s near impossible to see the govern-ment shrinking. It has and always shall be a large, if not the largest, component of the economy as measured by its spending as a percentage of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The Federal government alone spends over $3.7 trillion in the official budget, and that doesn’t count the additional trillions of dollars in additional military activities or the trillions more deployed as part of the CARES Act and related economic recovery efforts. Nor does it count the trillions more that are in the portfolio of the Federal Reserve, which may reach $10 trillion on its balance sheet as part of the past and current financial support for the credit markets.

All of this means that companies that can tap the government for contracts and support can profit and are more resilient during economic and market downturns. I keep an eye on this and track government contracts and support that are part of many of the companies in our model portfolios. And it is enlightening.

Take Easterly Government Properties (DEA) in the Incredible Dividend Machine, for example. It’s a REIT that calls the US government its prime tenant. During this year’s lock-downs, DEA kept getting rent checks like clockwork. DEA remains a buy under $26.75, ideally for a taxable account.

Then there’s BlackRock (BLK), also in the Incredible Dividend Machine. BLK is a prime contractor to the

US government for running Federal employees’ retirement accounts and picking bonds and credit products for the Fed to buy.

There are also major technology contractors, such as Amazon (AMZN) in the Niche Investments and Microsoft (MSFT) in the Total Return Portfolio. From cloud computing to other products and services, both of these companies benefit hugely from the helping hand of government.

But there is one company that is really raking it in when it comes to the government as it spends a massive and rapidly rising sum on healthcare for older as well as economically challenged citizens.

Center of the Country & Profits

I have known Centene (CNC) for many years and have gotten to know its CEO, Michael Neidorff, in my town of St. Louis. It has been expanding by leaps and bounds around the nation through its own growth as well as through numerous consolidating acquisitions.

The company is focused on managed healthcare and healthcare insurance and execution. It is the largest provider of Medicaid services and is one of the largest providers of Medicare services in the nation. It also has the major contract for civilians that are employed by or are part of the US military. And it also taps the government coffers for its operations in the Affordable Care Act (ACA). In addition, Centene also has private company and organization contracts to manage or provide healthcare services.

The Federal government alone spends a massive and aggressively increasing amount on Medicaid, which over the past 30 years has soared by close to 1,200%. And that is followed by similar huge spending on the state level.

And for Medicare, the Federal government’s budget has soared by over 730% since 1985 through May of this year. That doesn’t even count the taxed contributions in payroll taxes and corporate and business taxes. These alone are massive and expanding pools of government cash that Centene is all the happier to scoop up via its government contracts.

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6 Profitable Investing | July 2020 | profitableinvesting.investorplace.com

Whether Recession or Recovery

All of this government cash for healthcare spending and more keeps coming whether the US economy is in recession or recovery, boom or bust. This make Centene one of the more dependable companies feeding at the trough of government.

Revenue for the past year has grown by 24.2%. And over just the past 10 years, Centene has been ramping up revenues from the government and beyond, resulting in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.6%.

That is a powerful confirmation of the power of government contracts for healthcare. And while there may well be talk of reforming costs, Centene is arguably part of any solution, as it has been mastering cost controls on executing healthcare contracts.

Now, margins are thin in this business, as are returns on equity. But the real power of Centene is the constant and rapidly rising revenues from its healthcare operations around the nation. And with so much cash flowing into the company, it has a glut of cash and less debt at only 35.4% of assets.

Proven GrowthThere is some bad news, though.

The company and CEO like to retain earnings for more growth and for acquisitions. It recognizes that growing revenues with a bigger and consolidated footprint in the government healthcare market provides real capability, and cash fuels the growth.

The dividend is not there. But I am recommending it because it has what I call proven growth. There are many companies that pay lower or no dividends. But if they can deliver not just financial returns but also recognized stock market returns over and over again through economic ups and downs, that’s proven growth.

Centene has returned just over 5,300% for shareholders in the stock market from 2001 to date, which equates to an average annual equivalent return of 24% per year. That’s many, many multiples of the returns of the S&P 500 and S&P Health Care Indexes.

But the stock is not just a value—it’s cheap. The shares are currently valued at a 70% discount to trailing

sales. Think about that. You can buy the government contract behemoth that keeps pumping cash into its coffers at a huge discount to what it sells.

Furthermore, management likes the stock, as 23 individuals in the C-suite and board room have shares and have been adding to their positions over the past six months alone by about 8%. The CEO owns 7,383,502 shares. And he takes his pay primarily in stock, not in cash, so he is highly focused on the return to shareholders in the market.

CNC is a new buy in the Niche Investments portfolio under $70.00, ideally for a tax-free account.

Total Return Portfolio

A lot is working again in the US economy. While millions are newly unemployed, the majority of the

workforce is still at work. And in a dramatic turn, millions have been brought back to work.

Ample household savings and pent-up demand for not just essential goods and discretionary goods is bringing a surge to consumer spending again.

Consumer comfort is better. That’s why businesses’ outlooks have also turned up. But we’re not all done with the virus. Outbreaks are spiking around the nation again, as unlockings and a lack of safety protocols are putting local populations at risk.

This remains a big risk for the stock market as well. Volatility has edged higher after significantly declining since the peak on March 16. That reflects the uncertainty of stocks over the near term.

But the stocks and stock funds inside the Total Return Portfolio continue to fare well. Each reflect their underlying positive status that has been carrying

(continued on p. 8)

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'05'03'02 '17'15'13 '19'11'09'07'06'04 '18'16'14 '20'12'10'08

■ Centene Corp■ S&P 500 Index■ S&P 500 Health Care Sector GICS Level 1 Index

25B

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20122011 201820172016 2019201520142013

26.03BCNC US Equity 26.03B

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Mid Price■ NYBLCNBA Index -82.30■ NYBL6NBA Index 24.80

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Last Price 1508.0High on 01/24/18 6867.0Average 2005.8Low on 03/18/20 201.0

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CNC Revenue

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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■ Centene Corp■ S&P 500 Index■ S&P 500 Health Care Sector GICS Level 1 Index

25B

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20122011 201820172016 2019201520142013

26.03BCNC US Equity 26.03B

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Last Price 114.76High on 01/24/18 157.02Average 81.28Low on 03/18/20 34.61

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CNC Total Return

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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Profitable Investing | July 2020 | profitableinvesting.investorplace.com 7

TOTAL RETURN PORTFOLIOStocks (56%)Indexed Equities (18%) Symbol T/TF

Entry Date

Fwd. Yield

Buy Under Comments

Vanguard Healthcare ETF VHT TF 3/16/16 1.57% $197.00 US healthcare spending is surging and getting more government support

Vanguard High Dividend ETF VYM TF 6/21/16 4.21% $85.00 Core S&P 500 investment with dividend focused allocation

Vanguard Info Tech ETF VGT TF 8/20/18 0.97% $278.00 Technology is now the value sector for both a locked down & unlocking economy

Vanguard Real Estate ETF VNQ TF 10/28/19 3.24% $82.75 The indexed way to gain access to the US REIT sector

Vanguard Utilities ETF VPU TF 9/24/18 3.99% $133.25 US utilities gaining renewed attention for yield with more certainty & power demand is rising

Growth & Income Plays (24%)Alliance Bernstein AB T 11/19/18 9.62% $28.50 This asset management company continues to work for shareholders including strong dividend

Compass Diversified Holdings CODI T 5/21/18 8.02% $19.00 This is like a smaller Berkshire Hathaway with lots of cash and cashflows

FMC Corporation FMC TF 4/25/19 1.75% $102.50 Food demand around the world is increasing; need for crop protection and farm-yield enhancement

Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV T 6/26/19 0.76% $150.00 Gold is gaining on lower US interest rates and negative real Treasury yields

Hercules Capital HTGC T 6/25/18 11.99% $12.25 Buy this stock and you get an impressive tech stock portfolio inside

Hormel HRL TF 4/17/17 1.92% $52.50 Packaged foods and meats remain in heavy demand

Microsoft MSFT TF 11/30/12 1.02% $199.00 One of the best technology stocks for work and leisure

Nestle NSRGY T 12/17/08 2.46% $114.50 Company is feeding households and pets along with livestock

NextEra Energy NEE TF 9/8/08 2.27% $264.50 Utilities are working & wind and solar are still favored by regulators and ESG investors

Procter & Gamble PG TF 12/17/08 2.69% $125.00 Leading consumer and household goods company

Viper Energy VNOM TF 7/23/18 3.51% $12.00 Market is catching on to company's assets and cashflows

Waste Management WM TF 10/30/18 2.10% $110.75 Lots of trash and recycling piling up; energy from waste (EFW) also makes for great ESG stock

Zoetis Incorporated ZTS TF 5/28/19 0.58% $141.50 Problem-solution company for global livestock protection including viruses and healthier pets

Real Estate Investment Trusts (8%)Digital Realty Trust DLR T 2/9/18 3.15% $150.45 Remote work & stay at home require cloud computing and data centers even with

unlockingsHannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure HASI T 12/31/19 4.73% $32.25 This ESG renewable energy finance company with gov. support structured as a REIT is working

Life Storage LSI T 12/26/18 4.50% $99.50 Self-storage & localized warehousing like Amazon works well for new economy

Medical Properties Trust MPW T 2/26/19 5.67% $21.25 Healthcare company tenants continue to improve fiscal conditions

W.P. Carey Inc. WPC T 1/3/14 6.05% $69.00 Company raised dividend yet again; also entering into creative equity funding program

Toll Takers (6%)Enterprise Products Partners EPD T 2/22/05 9.18% $20.50 Company proving its experience in dealing with market upheavals

Kinder Morgan Inc. KMI TF 11/28/14 6.73% $17.25 Proven history of succeeding in bull and bear markets

Fixed Income (44%)Cash (11%)Synchrony Bank high-yield savings account 7/31/15 1.05% Market 1.05% yield—call 866/226-5638 to order; watch FDIC limits

Multisector Bonds (15%)BlackRock Credit Allocation Trust BTZ TF 7/26/19 7.33% $14.00 Corporate bonds are great buys and BlackRock is the Fed's gatekeeper

DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund DLTNX TF 7/22/14 3.29% $10.95 Non-leveraged open-end fund with government-guaranteed mortgages continues to workVanguard Interm-Term Corporate Bond ETF VCIT TF 10/28/19 2.87% $95.50 Corporate bonds are delivering growth and not just income

Preferred Shares (7%)Atlas Corp. 7.875% Series H ATCO.PH TF 1/22/19 8.86% $22.75 CUSIP# 81254U304

Teekay LNG Partners 9.00% Series A TGP.PA TF 1/22/19 9.04% $25.00 ISIN# MHY8564M1131

iShares US Preferred Stock ETF PFF TF 3/9/17 5.82% $35.80 Preferred stocks remain good for defensive income

Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred Opp. Fund PFO TF 7/23/18 6.80% $10.82 Preferred stocks are working but watch buy under price

Minibonds (3%)JMP Group 7.25% 11/15/27 JMPNL TF 1/22/19 8.72% $21.50 CUSIP# 466273109

Cowen Inc. 7.75% 06/15/33 COWNL TF 1/22/19 7.62% $25.75 CUSIP# 223622804

US Cellular 6.95% 05/15/60 UZA TF 1/22/19 6.94% $25.00 CUSIP# 911684405

Municipal Bonds (4%)BlackRock Taxable Muni Bond BBN TF 2/26/20 5.40% $24.10 Taxable muni bonds are buys now; fund works for IRAs

BlackRock Municipal Income BLE T 4/23/18 7.54%* $14.47 BlackRock is a great muni manager in attractive market right now

Nuveen AMT-Free Credit NVG T 4/23/18 7.80%* $16.00 Munis should be bought now; fund at discount to NAV with AMT-free income

Nuveen Municipal Credit NZF T 4/23/18 7.77%* $15.60 Munis are great buys right now and fund is at discount to NAV

Treasury Bonds (4%)Two-year Treasury Bond T 12/24/18 0.20% Hold Hold if you own at a higher yield, but do not buy more

At least 10% below buy-below price as of the publication of this issue T: Buy in taxable account for best results TF: Buy in tax-advantaged account (IRA, etc.) for best results*Taxable-equivalent yield Bold indicates revised price

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8 Profitable Investing | July 2020 | profitableinvesting.investorplace.com

them through the mess and shows their ability to reemerge after the virus passes.

Technology stocks inside the S&P 500 have become more highly weighted in the index. And with the sector deemed to be a haven during the lockdowns, they should continue to deliver whether the economy continues to improve or if relocking provides a pause.

And while the S&P 500 is still slightly down year to date, the S&P Information Technology Index is quite positive.

Microsoft (MSFT) is the weighted leader in the technology index and has an ideal mix of products and services. Its cloud services as well as its ubiquitous software and computing services are all generating ample rising revenues.

And as discussed in the June issue, electronic gaming has been surging in popularity. Microsoft is the second largest console gaming operator, so it’s also reaping more cash and profits from this division, with newer offerings in the wings.

The stock has delivered a year to date return of 24.4%, and I see more to follow. I’m raising MSFT’s buy under price to $199.00, ideally for a tax-free account.

This inspires me to raise the buy under price for the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT), which has generated an 11.7% return year to date. VGT is now a buy under $278.00, ideally for a tax-free account.

Viper Energy (VNOM) was severely oversold during the massive market drop this year. But with ample cash, limited debt and no capital expenditures for operations, its status has been positive.

In addition, the price hedging that the company deployed before the virus and the hissy-fit from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries + Russia (OPEC+) means that revenue drops from royalties will be partially offset by the transactions in the petroleum market.

At a current value flat to its intrinsic book value, it’s a value even with its reduced dividend distribution. VNOM is now a buy under a raised price of $12.00, ideally for a tax-free account.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) looked like a doomed sector for a while, with the lockdowns raising concerns about rent payments. But as more REITs disclose rising rent collections and differentiations in tenant sectors

away from retail and leisure properties, REITs as measured by the Bloomberg US REITs Index have generated a 40.4% return since March 23. Of course, the sector is vulnerable to general market volatility, but I see value in our select portfolio holdings.

Medical Properties Trust (MPW) has been reporting excellent rent collection from its healthcare properties. And with patients now moving to take care of delayed procedures, its tenants should be in better status themselves. MPW has returned 50% since March 23, and it is still a value at only 1.42 times book. I’m raising the buy-under price for MPW to $21.25, ideally for a taxable account.

W.P. Carey (WPC) is a large and diversified REIT focused on the triple-net leasing market. This means that it acquires properties and leases them back to tenants, who are responsible for general upkeep, insurance and taxes. That reduces risk for the REIT and provides for more certainty in revenues. WPC has announced that the next dividend distribution will be raised again, as it has done quarter after quarter for many years. That brings its yield to 6.1%.

It has also made a deal with JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) to sell 4,705,000 shares, with further options for an additional 712,500 shares on a forward settlement basis. The transaction will be set 18 months in the future.

The settlement will be in either shares or the cash equivalent. This provides W.P. Carey partial cash for the transaction and at the expiration the entire amount less transaction costs, if

settled in cash. The proceeds will be used to pay or redeem debt, which is now 46.9% of assets. The price range for the forward deal is set between $69.55 to $72.50.

I see this as further evidence of the innovative management of the company. I’m now raising WPC’s buy-under price to $69.00, ideally for a taxable account.

Petrol pipelines and related infrastructure have continued to operate through the lockdowns and unlocking. And there has already been a large increase in fuel demand from aircraft to automobiles and trucks.

INRIX (private) provides traffic information services and has recently reported that US traffic flows are returning to or exceeding levels seen prior to lockdowns in and around major cities.

I winnowed our petrol infrastructure companies to just Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Kinder Morgan (KMI). EPD has kept its dividend yielding 9.2%, and I’m raising the buy-under price to $20.50, ideally for a taxable account.

KMI increased its dividend, which now yields 6.7%. I’m raising the buy under price for KMI to $17.25, ideally for a tax-free account.

Gold has been doing well this year, trading in a range between $1,682 and $1,743. And I continue to see the underlying fundamentals supporting demand. They include a lower US dollar and the near-zero near-term US interest rates.

In addition, the government bond markets of the major economies have enormous negative-yielding bonds,

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■ Centene Corp■ S&P 500 Index■ S&P 500 Health Care Sector GICS Level 1 Index

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Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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Profitable Investing | July 2020 | profitableinvesting.investorplace.com 9

making gold a better viable option to store value. While US Treasury yields are positive, at such low levels even with low inflation, the real yield (nominal rate less inflation) for most US Treasuries is negative to barely positive. This makes gold even more of a good store of value for US investors.

Franco-Nevada (FNV) has taken a pause recently but should be reflecting the stronger market for gold. FNV remains a buy under $150.00, ideally for a taxable account.

Meanwhile, the corporate and munici-pal bond markets continue to gain ground with Fed support as well as overall inves-tor demand. Continue to buy and own the individual holdings and closed-end and ETF bond and muni funds in the Total Return Portfolio.

Incredible Dividend Machine

The Incredible Dividend Machine continues to provide monthly income from three cycles of dividend distributions. And with the stock market reflecting the improving/recovering US economy, stock prices are reflecting both the positive status of the companies during and through the virus mess as well as the income opportunities.

Cycle AIn Cycle A, BCE Inc. (BCE)

continues to be a dependable telecom utility in the Canadian market. Revenues should continue from both its voice and data, with Canadians like their US peers continuing to remote work and stay at home.

The shares are a value at only 2.2 times book and 2.73 times trailing sales. Margins are fat at 23.3%, and with lots of cashflow and controlled debt at only 43.7% of assets, the company continues to work for shareholders.

The dividend yields an attractive 5.9%, and the shares have returned 34.9% since March 23. BCE is a buy under a raised price of $45.00, ideally for a taxable account.

Corporate Office Properties (OFC) has been outpacing the Bloomberg US REIT Index since March 23, returning 48.3%. REITs are showing that there are differentiated sectors and

companies. OFC remains attractive for its overall portfolio, and the stock is valued at 1.76 times book.

But it isn’t getting enough credit for its large collection of data center properties, including the collection that are run specifically for Amazon (AMZN) and its web services division. This is reflected in its cheaper valuation on a book and sales basis compared to Digital Realty Trust (DLR) in the Total Return Portfolio. Yielding 4.3%, OFC remains a good buy right now under $27.00, ideally for a taxable account.

Xcel Energy (XEL) is showcased earlier in this issue for its building capabilities in ESG via its renewable energy capabilities in the US. The dividend has been affirmed last month, with the next payout on July 20 for a yield of 2.6%. XEL remains a great buy for income now and growth over time under $68.50, ideally for a tax-free account.

Cycle BCycle B has the dependable utilities

in power as well as communications with Alliant Energy (LNT), AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ). And the dependable and reformed consumer goods company Colgate-Palmolive (CL) continues to deliver, with shares returning 21.7% since March 23, including the 2.4% yield. CL remains a buy under $74.90, ideally for a tax-free account.

But for more income, Verizon with its yield of 4.4% and AT&T with an even bigger 6.9% yield are even more attractive. AT&T remains a buy under $32.50, and Verizon remains a buy under $59.00, both for tax-free accounts.

Cycle CCycle C has a collection

of stocks with a lot of positive developments underway. BlackRock (BLK) is highlighted earlier in this issue for two major advantages for shareholders. It is a major leader in the ESG space, with CEO Larry Fink remaining a big proponent of this investing fashion.

And with its developments in the ESG ETF offerings, I see more assets under management coming into the company.

Then, of course, it is a big contractor for the US and other governments. In the US, it is the primary fund manager for the retirement accounts of the millions of Federal workers. And it has been tapped again by the government to serve the Fed in its bond and other credit buying programs. It also manages assets for a collection of non-US governments and sovereign investment funds.

The shares are not just positive since March 23. Year to date, the stock has returned 12.3%, including its dividend yielding 2.6%. I am raising the buy under price for BLK to $576.00, ideally for a tax-free account.

Then, as I wrote in a recent Journal, Dominion Energy (D) and Duke Energy (DUK) scored a major win at the Supreme Court of the US (SCOTUS) to further their coop in the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. SCOTUS overturned lower court objections that the US Department of Agriculture and its US Forest Service does indeed have the authority to grant the easement through Federal land for the pipeline.

The pipe will bring needed natural gas from the Marcellus Shale in West Virginia through to the mid-Atlantic for needed cleaner power as well as for LNG exports.

In particular, Virginia—which is a

The Incredible Dividend MachineCycle A (January, April, July, October) T/TF Buy UnderBCE Inc. (BCE, 5.9%) T $45.00 Corporate Office Properties (OFC, 4.3%) T $27.00 Merck (MRK, 3.2%) TF $85.00 Mondelez International (MDLZ, 2.2%) TF $55.50PPL Corp. (PPL, 6.3%) TF $27.00 Xcel Energy (XEL, 2.6%) TF $68.50TPG Specialty Lending (TSLX, 9.0%)** TF $19.00

Cycle B (February, May, August, November)AT&T (T, 6.9%) TF $32.50 Colgate-Palmolive (CL, 2.4%) TF $74.90Alliant Energy (LNT, 3.1%) TF $48.75Verizon (VZ, 4.4%) TF $59.00

Cycle C (March, June, September, December)BlackRock (BLK, 2.6%) TF $576.00 Dominion Energy (D, 4.5%) TF $83.00Duke Energy (DUK, 4.6%) TF $93.00Easterly Gov’t Properties (DEA, 4.4%) T $26.75 Eversource Energy (ES, 2.7%) TF $90.20 Main Street Capital (MAIN, 7.6%)** T $33.75 Public Svc. Enterprise Group (PEG, 4.0%) TF $52.75 *Monthly dividend payer, **Annual Yield

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10 Profitable Investing | July 2020 | profitableinvesting.investorplace.com

primary market for Dominion—has seen power demand firmly rising even during the lockdowns, as government and residential users as well as server farms and data centers (such as those owned by Corporate Office Properties) are humming along. D remains a buy under $83.00, and DUK remains a buy under $93.00, both for tax-free accounts.

Also in Cycle C, Main Street Capital (MAIN) continues to advance firmly since March 23, returning 108.7%. While still a bit lower year to date, the performance of its loan portfolio is doing well, and the actions by the Fed to support the business loan market are adding security to the company.

The dividend was affirmed in May for the monthly distributions through September for a yield of 7.6%. MAIN is now a buy under a raised price of $33.75, ideally for a taxable account.

Niche InvestmentsThe Niche Investments portfolio is

the “farm team” for the Total Return Portfolio and Incredible Dividend Machine. If these holdings pan out as I expect, they will move into the main portfolios. And of course, if a stock in the main portfolios is weakening but is still attractive, it may be moved down to Niche Investments to prove it has what it takes to stick around.

Recommendations made in the Niche Investments portfolio should be purchased in smaller sums than Total Return Portfolio or Incredible Dividend Machine recommendations.

Since it’s IPO, Amazon (AMZN) has returned close to 180,000%. It’s a combination of businesses that include its retail platform and branded goods to digital content as well as its web services and cloud computing. I have followed the company since it came to the market and have been a customer of all of its businesses. But I have been reticent to buy, as it appeared to be all about growth at any cost rather than being managed for shareholders. I finally added it to the Niche Investments following my realization that it isn’t just a company—it’s an index of what the economy has become.

Cloud computing and data are mission No. 1 and Amazon’s key profit center. Online shopping is its most powerful consumer-facing tool. And

from streaming video and music to reading material, the world wants more of the company’s offerings. The add-ons, including Alexa, make life all the easier and more productive.

The stock has returned 46.1% year to date, and I see more to follow. And as I’ve noted, the new bond issuance will add to its cash hoard and M&A capabilities. I’m raising the buy under price for AMZN to $2,831.50, ideally for a tax-free account.

We also have B. Riley (RILY) in the Niche Investments, which is a very impressive company with a collection of businesses that include company and asset appraisals, store and business liquidations, asset management and higher-level brokerage operations and targeted business lending.

Founder and CEO Bryant Riley is a large shareholder and just added another 20,000 shares in a buy on June 10. Other insiders have also added to their holdings.

This is one of my “heads-you-win, tails-you-win” stocks. In good economic times, the company has lots of operations for rising revenues. And in troubled or challenging times, bankruptcies and company shutdowns and closures bring plenty of additional revenues and profits.

And yet, the stock is barely valued above its trailing sales, making it a bargain right now. Yielding 4.7%, RILY is a buy under a raised price of $23.00, ideally for a tax-free account.

Elsewhere in the portfolio, Ericsson (ERIC) is a very undervalued and under-appreciated company. This is one of the primary equipment companies for the rollout of fifth-generation (5G) wireless. In particular, the company has patents on transmission gear known as Massive Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO). 5G is different than the prior generations, including Long-Term Evolution (LTE) wireless.

The signals need to be highly concentrated, and antennas need to be deployed in a lot more locations both inside and outside of buildings. LTE uses broad signals that go far and

wide but are limited in data speed and amounts. MIMO uses precisely targeted signals that allow for greater speed and capacity.

Huawei (private) has some of the MIMO-like gear under questionable and potentially contestable patent infringements. And it’s not welcome in many markets for various political or economic reasons. But Ericsson is getting deals, including the recent one with BCE Inc. (BCE) in the Incredible Dividend Machine.

I see this stock gaining more attention. The shares are valued at only 1.4 times sales. Add in sales gains, and the share price should be much higher. I’m raising ERIC’s buy-under price to $10.00, ideally for a taxable account. I expect I’ll be raising it again soon.

Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) is another technology company that, like Ericsson, isn’t being fully valued. It’s processing and memory chips and components are ubiquitous in nearly anything electronic.

And its eponymous products are some of the highest quality in markets around the globe. Yet, the shares are only valued at 1.3 times sales and 1.2 times book. Yielding 2.6%, SSNLF is a buy under a raised price of $45.75, ideally for a taxable account.

Then, there’s Gray Television (GTN), which owns and operates a vast network of local television stations that are affiliates of the big national networks. November 3 is coming into focus, and with political rallies not really going to work with the virus mess, television and web advertising and messaging is the primary way for all sides of the political aisle.

Niche InvestmentsName (Ticker, Yield) T/TF Buy UnderActivision Blizzard (ATVI, 0.5%) TF $79.50Amazon.com (AMZN, 0.0%) TF $2,831.50B. Riley Financial (RILY, 4.7%) TF $23.00Centene (CNC, 0.0%) TF $70.00Ericsson (ERIC, 0.8%) T $10.00Gray Televison (GTN, 0.0%) TF $16.25KAR Auction Services (KAR, 4.9%) TF $16.00Marine Products Corp. (MPX, 2.4%) TF $14.50Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers (RBA, 2.0%) T $44.00Samsung Electronics (SSNLF, 2.6%) T $45.75Thor Industries (THO, 1.4%) TF $118.50**Annual Yield

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Profitable Investing | July 2020 | profitableinvesting.investorplace.com 11

Gray is already collecting checks for television ads and will also be getting them for their frequently viewed websites. I’m raising the buy-under price for GTN to $16.25, ideally for a tax-free account.

In the June issue, I highlighted my way to capitalize on the demand for safe travel and recreation in the era of the virus mess. Rather than betting on airlines and hotels complete with enormous risks and uncertainty, I suggested buying into RV and boat companies.

Thor Industries (THO) is a leading maker of RVs for many different consumers. RVs provide a safe means of travel and accommodation, like driving your house or condo. The stock has been soaring since it was added to the portfolio, and I’ve been raising the buy under price.

But it’s still a bargain, as it is valued at only 80% of trailing sales, and current-quarter sales and those to follow should be much higher.

As you can see in the longer-term price chart, the stock is not as high as it’s been even before the current market

environment. If you haven’t bought THO yet, don’t feel like you’ve missed out. THO is now a buy under a raised price of $118.50, ideally for a tax-free account.

Marine Products (MPX) is like Thor, but for boats. Like RVs, boating is a way to travel safely and stay comfortably. And even for just a day out, boats provide activities that are well-distanced from others. MPX remains a buy under $14.50, ideally for a tax-free account.

Model Mutual Fund Portfolios

The Model Mutual Fund Portfolios continue to provide thematic matches to the overall strategies of the Total Return Portfolio using targeted or indexed ETFs and funds.

In the Growth Strategies section of this issue, I outlined how the primary stock indexes are faring, with all five performing well since the low on March 23 and the technology sector generating

a positive return on a year-to-date basis.

I continue to see that the sector mix for the Fund Portfolio and the Fidelity & Vanguard Portfolios should swiftly navigate the improving economic and market conditions in the US, while being able to sustain potential future volatility. This includes the general dividend-focused stock ETFs, which are further goosed with the specific

information technology sector funds and ETFs.

Healthcare remains well supported with the virus, and with more patients returning to take care of postponed maintenance and procedures, this sector will see more revenue growth and investment.

Then, the traditionally defensive sectors for income and growth, utilities and REITs, are gaining positive attention again. They’re great bargains to buy right now through the recommended ETFs.

On the fixed-income front, there are three segments to buy right now. With the improving or recovering economy, corporations are gaining credibility, aiding bonds and preferred shares. Municipals are also gaining with much better state and local economic conditions that should continue even with some near-term risks.

Add in the backstop of the Federal Reserve for corporate bonds, loans, indexed investments and funds as well as municipal lending and bond support, and these two credit markets are providing higher yields now and gains to follow. Continue to buy and own

The Fund PortfolioStocks (56%)Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ)Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT)Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT)Fixed Income (44%)Intermed.-Trm Corporate ETF (VCIT)iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF (PFF)SPDR Nuveen Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond ETF (TFI)Cash (11%)

The Fidelity and Vanguard Portfolios

Fidelity (800/544-8888)Stocks (56%)Fidelity High Dividend ETF (FDVV)Fidelity MSCI Real Estate ETF (FREL)Fidelity US Utilities ETF (FUTY)Fidelity Health Care ETF (FHLC)Select Software & IT Svcs (FSCSX)

Fixed Income (44%)High Income (SPHIX)Principal Preferred Securities (PRFCX)Intermediate Municipal Income (FLTMX)Cash (11%)

Vanguard (800/662-2739)Stocks (56%)High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)Real Estate ETF (VNQ)Utilities ETF (VPU)Information Technology ETF (VGT)Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT)

Fixed Income (44%)Intermed.-Trm Corporate ETF (VCIT)iShares Pref. and Income Secs. ETF (PFF)Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEB)Cash (11%)

6000

5000

4000

2000

1000

3000

0

'05'03'02 '17'15'13 '19'11'09'07'06'04 '18'16'14 '20'12'10'08

■ Centene Corp■ S&P 500 Index■ S&P 500 Health Care Sector GICS Level 1 Index

25B

20B

15B

5B

10B

0

20122011 201820172016 2019201520142013

26.03BCNC US Equity 26.03B

160

140

120

100

60

80

40

20162015 2019 202020182017

114.76

Last Price 114.76High on 01/24/18 157.02Average 81.28Low on 03/18/20 34.61

10

0

-10

-20

-30

May JunAprMar2020

Jan Feb

■ S&P 500 Index■ S&P 500 Information Technology Sector GICS Level 1 Index

50

150

200

100

0

2017 2018 20192010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020

S&P 500 ESG Index (USD)

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

2020MarFebJan Apr May Jun

Mid Price■ NYBLCNBA Index -82.30■ NYBL6NBA Index 24.80

-82.30

24.80

Last Price 40.2High on 01/26/20 67.3Average 50.8Low on 05/17/20 34.7

70

65

45

35

40

60

55

50

40.2

May JunApr 2020Feb Mar

20

5

-15

-10

-5

0

15

10

MayMar Apr2020Jan Feb

17.7Last Price 17.7High on 03/31/20 17.7Average -0.8Low on 09/30/19 -14.7

-5000

-10000

0

-15000

-20000

2509

Last Price 2509High on 01/24/18 2509Average -3150Low on 03/18/20 -20687

MayApr2020FebJan Mar

7000

6000

5000

4000

2000

3000

1000

0

1508

Last Price 1508.0High on 01/24/18 6867.0Average 2005.8Low on 03/18/20 201.0

JunMayApr2020FebJan Mar

Thor Industries

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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the corporate bond, preferred stock and municipal bond ETFs and funds.Now, a word on the two major themes that I discussed earlier in this issue.

ESG is already drawing more individual and institutional investment, and I’m reviewing the ESG funds and ETFs for potential inclusion in the model mutual fund portfolios. For now, each of the stock funds have plenty of the ESG-compliant companies. And for green energy, the utilities funds have direct exposure.

For the power and reliability of investments with government support, the stock funds and ETFs include plenty of companies with government contracts. And for fixed-income funds, the CARES Act and the Federal Reserve will help corporate bonds and credit products as well as municipal bonds enormously.

Final ThoughtEconomy Starting to Work Again

The stock and bond markets in the US found their footing and began to work again largely on March 23. The Fed’s actions and disclosed plans, aided by the US Treasury, flipped the switch that the US financial markets weren’t going down the tube. And the CARES Act only furthered the recovery and repair story that US consumers and businesses were going to get lots of support to stop the bleeding and get back to healing.

But the actual economy was delayed in the recovery. That had me quite concerned that the stock and bond markets weren’t necessarily fully justifying the green light to buy. But thankfully, job losses keep falling week by week. And actual job creation or recreation has come at a hefty first pass in May and hopefully will show up for June.

And with wages higher and households sitting on a suddenly huge pile of savings, the capability to spend is way up now. Improving consumer comfort levels are now off of historic lows, so the recent surge in retail sales may well continue.

Subsequently, businesses started to become more confident. Initially, the remote work and stay at home companies were doing better. But now we’re seeing broader confidence in both current and, more importantly, forward expectations by business leaders in the C-suites around the nation.

Stocks are reflecting more and more of this, and with the Fed backstopping the bond, loan and credit markets along with ample demand for yield, bonds are being bought and bought some more.

But the virus isn’t done. There are currently no broadly deployed treatments or vaccines. And unlocking has led to flare-ups in cases and deaths, which is leading some areas to relock. This will cause some market pauses, drops and volatility that we should be mindful of.

I’ve kept you up to date with the status of the companies behind our stocks. They remain strong. And the bonds are also secure for income and further growth. With that in mind, I’ve revised some of the buy-under prices for our holdings higher. And more and more companies continue to reaffirm or even raise their dividends.

In addition, I’ve presented two major themes that I see continuing to thrive in the stock and bond markets. ESG isn’t just about politics. It’s about profits. And checks and guarantees from the US government provide a whole lot more credibility and sustainability now and a platform for growth moving forward.

If you have questions, concerns or comments, please reach out to me and my team at [email protected] or give us a call at 800-211-8566.

Thank you very much for reading and subscribing.

Neil George

NEIL GEORGE began his financial services career in 1987 with Merrill Lynch International Bank in Vienna, Austria and subsequently held senior positions at what are now US Bank and globally-

based Investec PLC. Neil’s long career has included stints as a bond trader and the manager of a fixed-income fund worth over $1 billion. An income hunter at heart, he’s also the former editor of several successful investment advisories dedicated to finding Wall Street’s best yields. Neil earned an MBA in international finance from Webster University in Europe and a bachelor’s degree in economics from King’s College. His market commentary and insights have been featured in the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Bloomberg, CNN and NBC.

Actions to Take This Month

1. In the Total Return Portfolio:• Buy NEE under $264.50 (TF)• Buy HASI under $32.25 (TF)• Buy MSFT under $199.00 (TF)• Buy VGT under $278.00 (TF)• Buy VNOM under $12.00 (TF)• Buy MPW under $21.25 (T)• Buy WPC under $69.00 (T)• Buy EPD under $20.50 (T)• Buy KMI under $17.25 (TF)• Buy FNV under $150.00 (T)

2. In the Incredible Dividend Machine:

• Buy BCE under $45.00 (T)• Buy OFC under $27.00 (T)• Buy XEL under $68.50 (TF)• Buy CL under $74.90 (TF)• Buy T under $32.50 (TF)• Buy VZ under $59.00 (TF)• Buy BLK under $576.00 (TF)• Buy D under $83.00 (TF)• Buy DUK under $93.00 (TF)• Buy MAIN under $33.75 (T)• Buy DEA under $26.75 (T)

3. In the Niche Investments:• Buy CNC under $70.00 (TF)• Buy AMZN under $2,831.50 (TF)• Buy RILY under $23.00 (TF)• Buy ERIC under $10.00 (T)• Buy SSNLF under $45.75 (T)• Buy GTN under $16.25 (TF)• Buy THO under $118.50 (TF)• Buy MPX under $14.50 (TF)

SUMMARY