northwest power and conservation councilprocost version 2.2 rtf july 2007
TRANSCRIPT
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
ProCostProCost
Version 2.2Version 2.2
RTF July 2007RTF July 2007
slide 2
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
ProCostProCost
Spread sheet toolSpread sheet tool Compare costs & benefits of conservationCompare costs & benefits of conservation
– Equal footing with generationEqual footing with generation– Life cycle analysisLife cycle analysis– All costs and benefitsAll costs and benefits– Multiple ‘sponsor’ points of viewMultiple ‘sponsor’ points of view– 85 output metrics85 output metrics– Generates supply curvesGenerates supply curves
slide 3
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
UsesUses CouncilCouncil
– Used in Power Plan conservation assessmentUsed in Power Plan conservation assessment– Builds supply curves for conservationBuilds supply curves for conservation
RTFRTF– Cost-effectiveness of programs & measuresCost-effectiveness of programs & measures
Utilities & ETO & othersUtilities & ETO & others– Used as screening tool for programsUsed as screening tool for programs– Used to develop conservation supply curvesUsed to develop conservation supply curves
slide 4
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
InputsInputs
Measure costs & savingsMeasure costs & savings When savings occurWhen savings occur Load factor of savingsLoad factor of savings Coincidence of savings with peakCoincidence of savings with peak Avoided costsAvoided costs Financial parameters of sponsorsFinancial parameters of sponsors Discount rateDiscount rate Program parametersProgram parameters
slide 5
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
OutputsOutputs Life cycle costs & benefitsLife cycle costs & benefits By measureBy measure Measures combined into categories (programs)Measures combined into categories (programs) Four points of viewFour points of view
– Wholesale electric utility (BPA)Wholesale electric utility (BPA)– Retail electric utilityRetail electric utility– Natural gas utilityNatural gas utility– Total Resource Cost (TRC)Total Resource Cost (TRC)– Customer (limited)Customer (limited)
Supply curves with shaped savingsSupply curves with shaped savings
slide 6
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
MethodologyMethodology
Time value of quantifiable cost & benefit Time value of quantifiable cost & benefit streamsstreams
Use Present Value (PV) estimatesUse Present Value (PV) estimates ProCostGas\ProCost Value ProCostGas\ProCost Value Stream.xlsStream.xls
slide 7
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Time-Based Value of SavingsTime-Based Value of Savings
Consider when the savings occurConsider when the savings occur– Time of Day and Day of Week (4 time blocks)Time of Day and Day of Week (4 time blocks)– Month (12 months)Month (12 months)– Year (20 years of avoided costs) or moreYear (20 years of avoided costs) or more– Matrix of Savings & Prices: 4 by 12 by 20Matrix of Savings & Prices: 4 by 12 by 20
slide 8
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Monthly Wholesale Prices at Mid-ColumbiaMonthly Wholesale Prices at Mid-ColumbiaDraft 5Draft 5thth Power Plan, Current Trends Baseline Power Plan, Current Trends Baseline
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Mo
nth
ly W
ho
les
ale
Pri
ce
$/M
Wh
(Ye
ar
20
00
$)
On-peak prices
Off-peak prices
slide 9
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Monthly Wholesale Prices at Mid-C in 2012 Monthly Wholesale Prices at Mid-C in 2012 On-Peak and Off-Peak ($/MWh in Year 2000$)On-Peak and Off-Peak ($/MWh in Year 2000$)
Monthly Average Wholesale Prices at Mid-ColumbiaYear 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Ja
nuar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Apr
il
May
June
July
Aug
ust
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Wh
ole
sale
Pri
ce $
/MW
h
(Yea
r 20
00$)
On PeakOff Peak
slide 10
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Typical “On-Peak” Savings ProfilesTypical “On-Peak” Savings Profiles
Shape of Savings - On Peak
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Per
cen
t o
f An
nu
al M
easu
re S
avin
gs
Occ
uri
ng
in M
on
th
Commercial AirConditioning
Street Lighting
SF ResidentialWeatherization
ResidentialLighting
slide 11
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Typical “Off-Peak” Savings ProfilesTypical “Off-Peak” Savings ProfilesShape of Savings - Off Peak
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Per
cen
t o
f An
nu
al M
easu
re S
avin
gs
Occ
uri
ng
in M
on
th
Commercial AirConditioning
Street Lighting
SF ResidentialWeatherization
Residential Lighting
slide 12
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Timing-Based ValueTiming-Based Value
ShapeShape of Savingsof Savings
Value of Wholesale Value of Wholesale Power Power
Value of kWh SavedValue of kWh Saved
++
==
Shape of Savings - On Peak
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Per
cen
t o
f An
nu
al M
easu
re S
avi
ng
s O
ccu
rin
g in
Mo
nth
Commercial AirConditioning
Street Lighting
SF ResidentialWeatherization
ResidentialLighting
Monthly Average Wholesale Prices at Mid-ColumbiaYear 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Janu
ary
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Apr
il
May
June
July
Aug
ust
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Wh
ole
sale
Pri
ce $
/MW
h
(Yea
r 20
00$)
On PeakOff Peak
$
slide 13
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Value Depends on Shape of SavingsValue Depends on Shape of SavingsPresent Value of One kWh Energy Saved Present Value of One kWh Energy Saved
Assuming a 20-Year Measure LifeAssuming a 20-Year Measure Life
Present Value of Measure BenefitsAssume 20-year Measeure Life - Energy Value Only
$-
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
Sm
all
Co
mm
erci
al A
irC
on
dit
ion
ing
En
erg
y S
tar
Clo
thes
Was
her
-E
lect
ric
DH
W &
Dry
er
Res
iden
tial
CF
L
Res
iden
tial
Wea
ther
izat
ion
Eff
icie
nt
Str
eet
Lig
ht
PV
Ben
efit
$/k
Wh
Sav
ed
(Y
ear
2000
$)
slide 14
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
But … But … Longer-Lived Measures Have More ValueLonger-Lived Measures Have More Value
Present Value of One kWh SavedPresent Value of One kWh SavedFor Life of Measure - Energy Value OnlyFor Life of Measure - Energy Value Only
Present Value of Measure Energy Benefits PV One kWh of Energy For Measure Life
$-
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
Re
sid
en
tia
lW
ea
the
riza
tio
n
Sm
all
Co
mm
erc
ial A
irC
on
dit
ion
ing
En
erg
y S
tar
Clo
the
sW
as
he
r
Eff
icie
nt
Str
ee
tL
igh
t
Re
sid
en
tia
lC
FL
Measure
PV
Ben
efit
$/k
Wh
En
erg
y S
aved
(Yea
r 20
00$)
45 Year
18 Year
14 Year
15 Year
6 Year
slide 15
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Hour Monday Tuesday WednesdayThursday Friday Saturday Sunday HolidayDay of Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 42 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 43 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 44 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 45 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 46 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 37 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 38 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 39 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
10 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 211 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 212 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 213 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 214 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 215 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 216 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 217 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 218 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 219 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 320 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 321 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 322 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 423 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 424 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
ProCost Time-Segment MapProCost Time-Segment Map
slide 16
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Plus …Plus …Other Values of ConservationOther Values of Conservation
Quantifiable Non-Energy Benefits Quantifiable Non-Energy Benefits – Water savings, maintenance laborWater savings, maintenance labor
Distribution system expansion deferral Distribution system expansion deferral – Poles, wires, transformers, substationsPoles, wires, transformers, substations
Transmission system expansion deferral Transmission system expansion deferral – Bigger poles & wires Bigger poles & wires
Externalities: CO2Externalities: CO2 Regional Act Credit of 10% to conservationRegional Act Credit of 10% to conservation Risk-mitigation value of conservationRisk-mitigation value of conservation
slide 17
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Present Value of One KWh Saved Present Value of One KWh Saved Considering All BenefitsConsidering All Benefits
Present Value of Measure Benefits for Measure Life
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
Resid
en
tial
Weath
eri
zati
on
Sm
all
Co
mm
erc
ial
Air
Co
nd
itio
nin
g
En
erg
y S
tar
Clo
thes W
ash
er
Eff
icie
nt
Str
eet
Lig
ht
Resid
en
tial
CF
L
PV
Measu
re B
en
efi
t $/k
Wh
(Year
2000$) Distribution Deferral
Transmission Deferral
Non-Energy Benefits
CO2 Externality
Regional Act Credit
Wholesale kWh & LIneLoses
slide 18
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
What’s New in Version 2.2What’s New in Version 2.21.1. Time-based value of savings for Natural GasTime-based value of savings for Natural Gas2.2. Time-based value for CO2 (tons & $$) Time-based value for CO2 (tons & $$) 3.3. More perspectives: sponsors & societyMore perspectives: sponsors & society4.4. More output metrics More output metrics 5.5. Supply curve report with shape of savingsSupply curve report with shape of savings6.6. More input parameter choicesMore input parameter choices7.7. Risk-mitigation value of conservationRisk-mitigation value of conservation8.8. Revised B/C ratios to handle negative B & CRevised B/C ratios to handle negative B & C9.9. Works for Natural Gas (unitized per therm)Works for Natural Gas (unitized per therm)10.10. Fixed some errorsFixed some errors
slide 19
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Wholesale Electric PerspectiveWholesale Electric Perspective BenefitsBenefits
– Electric Energy include transmission losses (kWh)Electric Energy include transmission losses (kWh)
– Transmission capacity deferralTransmission capacity deferral
– Regional Act credit (10% OF first-two items)Regional Act credit (10% OF first-two items)
– Risk-mitigation creditRisk-mitigation credit
Share of costs assigned by userShare of costs assigned by user– CapitalCapital
– O&MO&M
– Period ReplacementPeriod Replacement
– Other non-energyOther non-energy
– Program AdminProgram Admin
slide 20
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Retail Electric PerspectiveRetail Electric Perspective
BenefitsBenefits– Electric Energy including TElectric Energy including T&D&D losses losses– Transmission capacity deferralTransmission capacity deferral– Local Distribution capacity deferralLocal Distribution capacity deferral– Regional Act credit (10% of first 3)Regional Act credit (10% of first 3)– Electric Risk-mitigation creditElectric Risk-mitigation credit
Share of costs assigned by userShare of costs assigned by user– Capital, O&M, Period Replacement, Program AdminCapital, O&M, Period Replacement, Program Admin
slide 21
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Retail Gas PerspectiveRetail Gas Perspective
BenefitsBenefits– GasGas Energy including T&D losses Energy including T&D losses– GasGas Transmission capacity deferral Transmission capacity deferral– GasGas Local Distribution capacity deferral Local Distribution capacity deferral– GasGas Risk-mitigation benefit Risk-mitigation benefit
Share of costs assigned by userShare of costs assigned by user– Capital, O&M, Period Replacement, Program AdminCapital, O&M, Period Replacement, Program Admin
slide 22
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
TRC PerspectiveTRC Perspective BenefitsBenefits
– Electric energy including T&D lossesElectric energy including T&D losses– Electric Transmission capacity deferralElectric Transmission capacity deferral– Electric Local Distribution capacity deferralElectric Local Distribution capacity deferral– Regional Act creditRegional Act credit– Electric Risk-mitigation creditElectric Risk-mitigation credit– Electric CO2 cost or benefitElectric CO2 cost or benefit– Gas energy including T&D lossesGas energy including T&D losses– Gas Transmission capacity deferralGas Transmission capacity deferral– Gas Local Distribution capacity deferralGas Local Distribution capacity deferral– Gas Risk-mitigation benefit Gas Risk-mitigation benefit – Gas CO2 cost or benefitGas CO2 cost or benefit– Other Non-energy benefitOther Non-energy benefit
All costs regardless of who paysAll costs regardless of who pays
slide 23
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Metrics Reported Metrics Reported SavingsSavings
– KWh, kW, therms, therms/dayKWh, kW, therms, therms/day From each perspective From each perspective
– Present Value (PV) costs & benefitsPresent Value (PV) costs & benefits– Levelized costs (per kWh or therm saved)Levelized costs (per kWh or therm saved)
» TraditionalTraditional
» Net of T&D deferral benefits (for supply curve)Net of T&D deferral benefits (for supply curve)
– B/C ratiosB/C ratios
slide 24
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Customer PerspectiveCustomer Perspective
BenefitsBenefits– None reportedNone reported
Costs (based on share assigned to customer)Costs (based on share assigned to customer)– CapitalCapital– O&MO&M– Periodic ReplacementPeriodic Replacement
slide 25
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
StatusStatus Testing Build 253Testing Build 253 Still finding some bugsStill finding some bugs Looking for interested testersLooking for interested testers
– Report Bugs, Recommend ImprovementsReport Bugs, Recommend Improvements Download from Council drop box:Download from Council drop box:
– http://www.nwcouncil.org/dropbox/http://www.nwcouncil.org/dropbox/– Two files: Two files:
» prodraft-253-alpha test.xlsprodraft-253-alpha test.xls» MC_AND_LOADSHAPE_cg.XLSMC_AND_LOADSHAPE_cg.XLS
Schedule a workshop or web-demoSchedule a workshop or web-demo