northwest power and conservation council residential conservation resource assessment overview of...

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Residential Conservation Residential Conservation Resource AssessmentResource Assessment

Overview of Analytical Process Overview of Analytical Process and Major Assumptionsand Major Assumptions

April 21, 2009April 21, 2009


OrganizationOrganization

Sector Summary WorkbookSector Summary Workbook– Linked to Three Procost “Roll-Up” WorkbooksLinked to Three Procost “Roll-Up” Workbooks– Space ConditioningSpace Conditioning– Lighting, Appliances and Water HeatingLighting, Appliances and Water Heating– Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics

““Roll-Up” Workbooks are Linked to “SCinput” tabs in individual Roll-Up” Workbooks are Linked to “SCinput” tabs in individual measure level workbooksmeasure level workbooks– Changes made in “SCInput” tabs in individual measure workbooks will be Changes made in “SCInput” tabs in individual measure workbooks will be

reflected in “roll-ups” reflected in “roll-ups” Roll-Up Procost Workbooks ContainRoll-Up Procost Workbooks Contain

– Applicable Units Applicable Units – Baseline Market ShareBaseline Market Share– Ramp Rate AssumptionsRamp Rate Assumptions– ““Redundant Measure” parsingRedundant Measure” parsing– Supply Curve by year and “TRC Levelized Cost” binSupply Curve by year and “TRC Levelized Cost” bin


What’s Covered – What’s Covered – Space Conditioning Space Conditioning

Three Building TypesThree Building Types– Single Family (up to & including 4-plex)Single Family (up to & including 4-plex)– Multifamily (5-plex & above)Multifamily (5-plex & above)– Manufactured/Mobile HomesManufactured/Mobile Homes

Four VintagesFour Vintages– Pre-1980 Pre-1980 – 1980 – 19921980 – 1992– Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction)Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction)– Post-2002Post-2002


What’s Covered (cont)What’s Covered (cont)

Thermal Shell Improvements, including air sealing Thermal Shell Improvements, including air sealing with heat recovery ventilationwith heat recovery ventilation

Duct Sealing/Interior HVAC & DuctsDuct Sealing/Interior HVAC & Ducts Forced-Air Electric Furnace Heating System Forced-Air Electric Furnace Heating System

Conversions to Air-Source Heat PumpsConversions to Air-Source Heat Pumps Zonal Heating System Conversions to Ductless Zonal Heating System Conversions to Ductless

Heat PumpsHeat Pumps Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning System Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning System

Efficiency UpgradesEfficiency Upgrades Room Air Conditioner Efficiency UpgradesRoom Air Conditioner Efficiency Upgrades


Analytical Process – Measure Analytical Process – Measure Cost-EffectivenessCost-Effectiveness

Baseline Characteristics

•CRC & ETO Reports•Current Codes•Market Surveys•Federal Standards

Prototype Simulations

• Twelve Buildings • Five locations• Adjusted for “system” efficiency• Nine Climate Zone Combinations

• 3 Heating• 3 Cooling

PROCOST

•Market Price Forecast•Load Shapes•T&D Losses & Value•Non-Energy Benefits

Unit Level Results

• “Optimized” Measure Order• Cost-Effectiveness Determination


Analytical Process – Analytical Process – Interactive MeasuresInteractive Measures

Building Thermal Shells

Insulated to Cost-Effectiveness Limit

Heat Pump Conversions/Upgrades to Cost-Effectiveness Limit w/ Duct Sealing (Existing) and/or Interior HVAC (New)

Internal Gains Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Appliance and Lighting Efficiency Improvements

Post-Retrofit/Upgrade Use


Analytical Process – Analytical Process – “Applicable Units”“Applicable Units”

Measure & Housing StockMeasure & Housing Stock– ResWxResWx = Built Pre-1980, surviving in 2029 = Built Pre-1980, surviving in 2029– New Shell & HVACNew Shell & HVAC = Built between 2010 – 2029 = Built between 2010 – 2029– Duct Systems Sealing & Space Conditioning Equipment Duct Systems Sealing & Space Conditioning Equipment

ConversionsConversions = All SF & MH units built prior to 2010, existing in = All SF & MH units built prior to 2010, existing in 20292029

– Interior HVAC and Space Conditioning Systgem UpgradesInterior HVAC and Space Conditioning Systgem Upgrades = All = All SF and MH stock build from 2010 -2029SF and MH stock build from 2010 -2029

– Heating & Cooling Equipment Conversions Replaced “on burn Heating & Cooling Equipment Conversions Replaced “on burn out”out”

– Heating & Cooling Equipment Upgrades Replaced “on burn out” Heating & Cooling Equipment Upgrades Replaced “on burn out” for pre-2010 units and at time of construction for 2010 – 2029 for pre-2010 units and at time of construction for 2010 – 2029 units.units.


Thermal Shell Measure Cost & Thermal Shell Measure Cost & SavingsSavings

Weatherization Cost Data SourceWeatherization Cost Data Source– ETO and PSE Program Cost DataETO and PSE Program Cost Data– Window Cost – ETO Single family & Multifamily Cost Window Cost – ETO Single family & Multifamily Cost

Data (Used MF).Data (Used MF). New Construction Cost Data SourceNew Construction Cost Data Source

– 55thth Plan estimates from 4 Plan estimates from 4thth Plan estimates Plan estimates– Except windows and R-10 full slab insulationExcept windows and R-10 full slab insulation

» Used ETO cost data from ResWx for windowsUsed ETO cost data from ResWx for windows» Used data submitted by Mission Valley Power to RTFUsed data submitted by Mission Valley Power to RTF

Savings based on SEEM Simulation Model Savings based on SEEM Simulation Model estimates (results embedded in workbooks)estimates (results embedded in workbooks)


Heat Pump and PTCS Duct Sealing, Heat Pump and PTCS Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls Cost Commissioning and Controls Cost

EstimatesEstimates Four Sources:Four Sources:

– Existing RTF cost estimate contractor bidsExisting RTF cost estimate contractor bids– STAC – Survey of regional HVAC contractors STAC – Survey of regional HVAC contractors

(preliminary returns from 23 contractors(preliminary returns from 23 contractors– Online HVAC equipment sales sites (“box Online HVAC equipment sales sites (“box

cost” only)cost” only)– Energy Trust of Oregon program dataEnergy Trust of Oregon program data


Cost to Consumers of HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 Three Ton Heat PumpThree Ton Heat Pump

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

Low Mid-Point High

RTF

ETO

STAC

Online ("Box Only")



$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000$9,000

$10,000

Low Mid-Point High

RTFETOSTACOnline ("Box Only")



$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

Low Mid-Point High

RTF

ETO

STAC

Online ("Box Only")


Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat Pump8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat Pump

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

Low Mid-Point High

RTF

ETO

STAC

Online


Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF 9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat Pump9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat Pump

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

Low Mid-Point High

RTF

ETO

STAC

Online


Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS System Duct Sealing and Interior System Duct Sealing and Interior

HVAC/DuctsHVAC/Ducts

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

PTCS - Sealing PTCS - Interior


Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS System CommissioningSystem Commissioning

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

Low Mid-Point High

RTF

STAC


What’s Covered – Water HeatingWhat’s Covered – Water Heating

High Efficiency TanksHigh Efficiency Tanks Heat Pump and Solar Water HeatersHeat Pump and Solar Water Heaters 2.0 GPM Showerheads2.0 GPM Showerheads GFX Wastewater Heat RecoveryGFX Wastewater Heat Recovery


Analytical Process – Analytical Process – Interactive MeasuresInteractive Measures

Standby Loss Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Efficiency Improvements

Heat Pump and Solar Water Heating Cost-Effectiveness Determined

Waste Water Heat Recovery Cost-Effectiveness Determined

Water Use Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Appliance and Water Fixture Efficiency Improvements

Post-Retrofit/Upgrade Use


Retail Cost Assumptions –Retail Cost Assumptions – Electric Water Heaters Electric Water Heaters

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

0.90 0.92 0.94 2.20

Water Heater Energy Factor

Reta

il In

stalle

d C

ost

(2006$) Low

AverageHigh

Source: US Department of Energy Technical Support Document

Solar Hot Water System Savings Solar Hot Water System Savings AssumptionsAssumptions

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5

An

nu

al S

avin

gs

(kW

h)

System Cost Assumed = $4,500 for 50-60 sq.ft. collector system. Source: Cost ODOE tax credit data, savings from FSEC simulations for RTF


Residential Appliances – What’s Residential Appliances – What’s CoveredCovered

RefrigeratorsRefrigerators FreezersFreezers Clothes WashersClothes Washers DryersDryers DishwashersDishwashers Microwaves & OvensMicrowaves & Ovens


Major InputsMajor Inputs

Cost Data SourcesCost Data Sources– Oregon State Residential Energy Tax CreditOregon State Residential Energy Tax Credit

– DOE Appliance Standards (Refrigerators, Ovens and DOE Appliance Standards (Refrigerators, Ovens and Microwaves)Microwaves)

– Online (Dryers and Room AC)Online (Dryers and Room AC)

Baseline EfficiencyBaseline Efficiency– AHAM’s Annual Report on Sales Weighted Average AHAM’s Annual Report on Sales Weighted Average

Product EfficiencyProduct Efficiency

Savings – Engineering models based on DOE test Savings – Engineering models based on DOE test data and proceduresdata and procedures


AHAM Baseline – Room ACAHAM Baseline – Room AC

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Year

Sale

s W

eig

hte

d E

ffici

ency

(EER

)

Energy Star Minimum


AHAM Baseline - DishwashersAHAM Baseline - Dishwashers

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.701981

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Energ

y Fa

ctor

(cyl

es/

kWh)

Energy Star Minimum


Room AC Use AssumptionsRoom AC Use Assumptions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1 2 3 PNW

Cooling Zone

Annual U

se (

kWh)

BaselineEnergy Star


AHAM Baseline – Clothes AHAM Baseline – Clothes WashersWashers

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2005 2006 2007

Year

Energ

y Fa

ctor

(cyl

es/

kWh) Energy Star Minimum


Clothes Washer Use Clothes Washer Use AssumptionsAssumptions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

6th Plan 2010Baseline ( AHAMSales Weighted

Average MEF 2007)

Energy Star - Tier 1(MEF 2.0 - 2.19)

Energy Star - Tier 2(MEF 2.2 - 2.45)

Energy Star - Tier 3(MEF 2.46 or

higher) Top 10% ofEnergy Star Model

Annual U

se (

kWh)


AHAM Baseline – AHAM Baseline – Refrigerators and FreezersRefrigerators and Freezers

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Energ

y U

se (

kWh/y

r)

Refrigerator

Freezer


Dishwasher Use AssumptionsDishwasher Use Assumptions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Existing FederalStandard - EF46

Old Energy Star- EF58

CEE Tier 1 -EF62

Energy Star -EF65 (6th Plan

Baseline)

CEE Tier 2 -EF68

Dishwasher -EF72

Dishwasher -EF83 or higher

(Top 10%)

An

nu

al U

se (

kWh

)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

En

erg

y F

acto

r (c

ycle

s/kW

h)


Refrigerator Use AssumptionsRefrigerator Use Assumptions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

BottomFreezer -No I ce

BottomFreezer -

I ce

Side-by-Side - No

Ice

Side-by-Side - I ce

TopFreezer -No I ce

TopFreezer -

I ce

WeightedAverage

Annual

Use (

kW

h)

Energy Star

Current Practice

Federal Standard


Freezer Use AssumptionsFreezer Use Assumptions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Energy Star Upright-Manual Defrost

Freezer w/ averagecapacity

Energy Star Upright-Auto Defrost Freezerw/ average capacity

Energy Star ChestFreezer w/ average

capacity

Energy Star Freezer- Any Type &

Capacity

Annual

Use (

kW

h)

Federal Standard/Current Practice

Energy Star


Ramp Rate Assumptions – Lost Ramp Rate Assumptions – Lost OpportunityOpportunity

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

Maxim

um

Annual

Share

of

Tota

l A

chie

vable

P

ote

nti

al

LostOp_10yr

LostOp_12yr

LostOp_15yr

LostOp_20yr


Ramp Rate Assumptions – Ramp Rate Assumptions – Emerging Technology and Emerging Technology and

Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

Maxim

um

Annual

Share

of

Tota

l A

chie

vable

P

ote

nti

al

LostOp_EmergTech

LostOp_ResTV

LostOp_ResSTB

LostOp_ResComputer

LostOp_ResMonitor

LostOp_ComComputer

LostOp_ComMonitor


Ramp Rate Assumptions – Non-Ramp Rate Assumptions – Non-Lost Opportunity ResourcesLost Opportunity Resources

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

Maxim

um

Annual

Share

of

Tota

l A

chie

vable

P

ote

nti

al

NonLostOp_10yr

NonLostOp_15yr

NonLostOp_20yr

NonLostOp_5yr


Residential Lighting, Appliance Residential Lighting, Appliance and Water Heating Supply Curveand Water Heating Supply Curve

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

< 0

<20

<40

<60

<80

<10

0

<12

0

<14

0

<16

0

<18

0

<20

0

Ach

ieva

ble

Pote

nti

al b

y 2030

Solar PV

Solar DHW

Microwaves & Ovens

Dishwasher

Freezer

Refrigerator

Clothes Dryer

Clothes Washer

Lighting

Showerheads

GFX

HPWH

Efficient DHW Tanks


Summary of 6Summary of 6thth Plan Residential Space Plan Residential Space Conditioning Conservation Resource Conditioning Conservation Resource

Potential by Major MeasurePotential by Major Measure

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

< 0

<1

0

<2

0

<3

0

<4

0

<5

0

<6

0

<7

0

<8

0

<9

0

<1

00

<1

10

<1

20

<1

30

<1

40

<1

50

<1

60

<1

70

<1

80

<1

90

<2

00

>2

00

Avera

ge M

egaw

att

s by 2

03

0

HVAC Supplement (DHP)

HVAC HP Upgrade

HVAC HP Conversion

Shell Upgrade - New MH

Shell Upgrade - New MF

Shell Upgrade - New SF

ResWX MH

ResWX MF

ResWX SF

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