northwest power and conservation council oversupply issue and challenges ken dragoon august 31, 2011
TRANSCRIPT
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Oversupply Issue and Challenges
Ken Dragoon
August 31, 2011
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Issue Definition
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• Minimum generation levels on the Northwest power system can at
times exceed the ability to market the power.
• Negative market prices are an indicator of market saturation.
• Limiting factors acting to contribute to minimum generation requirements
include:
• Total Dissolved Gas (TDG) caps on the hydro system, limit hydro system ability to
spill energy.
• Costs incurred by thermal units associated with displacement.
• Cogeneration facilities.
• Increasing levels of low, or negative, variable cost resources– principally wind
generation.
• Factors affecting power marketability:
• Load growth rates and depressed economy.
• Transmission limits and outages.
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Challenges
3
• Events are relatively infrequent, likely lasting days or weeks,
and mainly during light load hours.
• Not likely to occur every year.
• Very limited amounts of energy on average annual basis.
• Spring 2011 event was on the order of 100,000 MWh in a relatively
extreme runoff year.
• Although energy content may be modest, the power
intensity can be very high– in the range of thousands of
megawatts.
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Solution Set Implications
4
• Stand-alone solutions cannot be heavily capital intensive, despite the high power intensity of events.– Cost of load banks is likely end point for
comparisons at ~$20-40/kW.
• Solutions likely to involve pairings with other uses or objectives to cost share with other purposes.
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
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Proposed Timeline
Establish Technical Oversight Committee (TOC) July 2011
TOC Brainstorming meeting July 2011
Categorize proposed solutions July 2011
Establish category workgroups August 2011
Category workgroup meetings August - October 2011
Workgroup Report to TOC November 2011
TOC recommendations for in-depth analysis November 2011
Analysis of Proposed Solutions (by subgroups/contractors) December 2011 - June 2012
Reports to TOC June 2012
TOC Summary Report to Wind Integration Forum Steering Committee
August 2012