northwest deyr 2010/11 january 26, 2011 information for better livelihoods food security and...
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Northwest
Deyr 2010/11
January 26, 2011
Information for Better Livelihoods
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit
Somalia
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC
Normal access to all livelihoods of the
Northwest regions for Deyr 2010/11 Assessment
Post Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment
Coverage Field Access and Field
Data Locations
Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income
• 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Togdheer and Northwest Agropastoral) Togdheer AgroPastoral are more pastoral, however there is an increasing
dependency on crop and fodder production. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment and fodder sales. Main source of food: Own crop and food purchase
Northwest Agropastoral are more agriculturists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; Main sources of food: own crop production and purchase.
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income
• 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugaal Valley, and Golis/Guban Pastoralists) Primary sources of income of poor: sale of
livestock & livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase
and own production Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel,
sheep/goat
• Start of Season: Started early - in 2nd dekad of Sep ’10 - in most parts of the Northwest zone
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Duration and distribution of the rainfall was poor in Nugaal valley, Sool Plateau and Hawd (Togdheer and Sool). A long dry spell in Nov-Dec ‘10 in the regions of Sool, Sanaag and Togdheer
• Normal to above normal rains: Hawd of Hargeisa, West-Golis/Guban, and Agropastoral (100-125 mm of cumulative rainfall)
• Below normal rains: Sool Plateau, Nugal valley and Hawd of Togdheer (10-25mm of cumulative Oct-Dec ’10)
ClimatePerformance of the Deyr 2010/11
Rainfall
July NDVI difference from long term average
ClimatePerformance of the Deyr 2010/11
Season
Civil Security Situation:
Overall the security situation in the Northwest remains stable.
Resource conflict in grazing land in Kalshaale area of Buhoodle district, resulted in human death(9) and injuries(2). However, efforts from both elders and house of parliament, promoted peace in the area. The recent declaration of the President had further strengthened the peace resolution in the area.
The conflict over the disputed agricultural land of El-bardaale in Gebiley district was agreed to be resolved through dialogue from clans with the government assistance.
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:
Limited movement of transport to Buhodle area.Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Civil Insecurity
Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow
Agriculture
AgricultureNorthwest Cereal Production
Agriculture Trends in Gu/Karan 2010 Crop Harvest Estimates
Regional Distribution of Gu/Karan 2010 Crop Estimates (Harvested)
Long Term Trends in Gu-Karan Crop Production (1998-2010)
Regional Trend in
Cereal Prices
(Sorghum)
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor
(kg of sorghum/daily wage)
AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Burao
Regional Trend in
Cereal Prices
(White Sorghum)
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor (Kg of White Sorghum/
Daily Wage)
AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Northwest
Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration
Livestock
• Good performance of Deyr ’10/11 season in Awdal, W. Galbeed and Golis LZ of Togdheer resulted in normal pasture and water.
• Below normal Deyr rains in most of Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions with negative impact on both pasture/ browse and water conditions.
• Average to poor livestock body conditions, however below average milk production due to low camel calving and limited pasture and water availability.
• Abnormal livestock migration in Eastern Part of NW regions.
Livestock Livestock Body Conditions & Trends in Production
RegionConception (Deyr ’10/11)
Calving/kidding (Deyr ’10/11)
Milk production (Deyr ’10/11)
Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ‘11
Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11)
Livelihoods Livestock species
NW HawdCamel: Low to NoneSheep/goats: Low to Medium
Nugaal valley:Camel: Low to NoneSheep/goats: Low to Medium
Sool plateauCamel: None Sheep/goats: Low to Medium
Golis/Guban:Camel: Medium Sheep/goats: Medium to High
HawdCamel: Medium in Sool region but Low to none in togdheer and W. Galbeed Sheep/goats: Low to Medium
Nugaal ValleyCamel: Medium in Sool and Low to none in Togdheer and SanaagSheep/goat: High to Medium
Sool PlateauCamel: None Sheep/goats: High to Medium
Golis/GubanCamel: Low to None Sheep/goats: Medium to High
All Species:
Below Average
Below Average
Below Average
Below Average
Hawd: Camel: MediumSh/goats: Low to Medium
Nugaal valley: Camel: MediumSh/goats: Low to Medium
Sool plateau: Camel: Low Sheep/Goats: Low to Medium
Golis/Guban: Camel: MediumSh/Goat:Medium to High
Hawd Camel : Above Baseline. Increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ‘10 and is expected to increase by 15% till Jun. ‘11 Sheep/goats: Above Baseline. Increased by 14% between Jun – Dec ‘10, but expected to be same till Jun. ‘11
Nugaal Valley
Sheep/Goats: Same as Baseline. Increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to Decline by 43% till Jun ‘11
Sool Plateau Sheep/Goat: Same as Baseline. Slightly increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ‘10 but expected to decrease by 22% till Jun. ‘11
Golis guban Camel: Above Baseline. Increased by 35% between Jan – Jun ‘10 and further increase of 19% is expected till Dec. ‘10
Sheep/goats: Near Baseline. Sustained unchanged between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to increase by 11% of Baseline till Jun. ‘11
Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade - Burao
Livestock
Regional Trends in Goat Local Quality Price and Terms of
Trade: Cereal to Goat Local Quality
LivestockRegional Trends in Livestock Prices & Terms of Trade - Erigavo
Regional Trends in Goat Local Quality Price and Terms of
Trade: Cereal to Goat Local Quality
LivestockTrends in Livestock Exports – Berbera Port
Deyr 2010/11 Assessment PhotosLivestock
Good body condition Hawd, Hargeisa, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Early water trucking Hawd L/Anod, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Poor Pasture Condition. Nugal Valley, Taleh, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Early water trucking in Sool plateau, Badhan, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices:
•Appreciation of SlSh
•Increased price of rice and sugar at international markets
Markets
NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings
Region Nutrition Surveys (Oct-Dec’10)
Rapid MUAC Screening (%
<12.5cm)
Health Information System Info(Source: HIS data R=3)
TFC/OTP/SFC
Other relevant information – Key driving factors
Summary of analysis and change from Gu
10
Pastoral –
Agro-Pastoral
West Golis/Guban
GAM:10.4% (7.6-13.9)
SAM: 1.6% (0.9-2.9)
Hawd
GAM: 10.1% (8.0-12.7)
SAM: 1.8% (1.0-3.5)
East Golis of Sanaag and Gebbi Valley
GAM:11.1% (8.0-15.1)
SAM: 2.1% (1.2-3.9)
Sool Plateau
GAM:8.3% (6.0-11.4)
SAM: 1.6% (0.8-3.1)
Nugal Valley
GAM:10.3% (7.0- 14.8)
SAM: 1.0% (0.4 – 2.3)
Agro-pastoral of Galbeed/Awdal and Togdheer
GAM:10.4% (7.6- 14.1)
SAM: 0.8% (0.3 – 1.91)
4.1 (2.4-7.2)
3.1 (1.9-4.8)
5.8 (3.8-8.6)
2.9 (1.7-5.0)
4.2 (2.5-6.0)
1.5 (0.6-2.5)
HIS TRENDS: Low <5% and stable number of acutely malnourished children
HIS nutrition trend: Low and stable no. of acutely malnourished children
HIS nutrition trend: High and fluctuating no. of acutely malnourished children
HIS nutrition trend: 10-15% and stable no. of acutely malnourished children
HIS nutrition trend: high and fluctuating trend. of acutely malnourished children
HIS nutrition trend: Low and stable numbers of malnourished children
Targeted feeding in MCH by WFP
N/A
High and stable trends
N/A
Targeted feeding in MCH by WFP
N/A
N/A
MORBIDITY: 26.1%
No disease outbreaks.
MORBIDITY: 21.1%
No disease outbreaks.
MORBIDITY: 43.1
No disease outbreaks, poor milk availability
MORBIDITY: 48.9
No disease outbreaks,
MORBIDITY: 40.4
No disease outbreaks,
MORBIDITY: 28.7
No disease outbreaks.
Overall Aggravating Factors: •Limited milk availability in the pastoral LHZs •High morbidity (increased incidences of diarrhea following the water shortages in the area•Inappropriate child feeding and care practices •Poor access to sanitation facilities and safe water in rural LHZs Overall Mitigating Factors: •Increased humanitarian programmes in the region (health, feeding, WASH)•Child Health Days conducted in the area in the months of December/ January 2011
West Golis/Guban Serious- Stable , no change
HawdSerious- Stable , no change
East Golis of Sanaag/GebbiDeterioration from Alert to Serious
Sool PlateauAlert – Stable no change
Nugal ValleyDeterioration from Alert to Serious
Agro- PastoralDeterioration from Alert to Serious
Somalia Estimated Nutrition Situation July 2010
Somalia Estimated Nutrition
Situation January 2011
Nutrition Nutrition Situation Maps
IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
Key IPC Reference Outcomes: •Pastoral of Sool-Sanag Plateau HE: 50% P HE and 50% P AFLC•East Golis/Gebi of Sanag region: Lasqoray district – AFLC Moderate Risk: 75% P; Other districts - BFI High Risk to AFLC (25%P in AFLC); Hawd and Nugal valley of Togdheer, Sanag and Sool - BFI High Risk to AFLC (25% of poor in AFLC); Livelihoods of W. Galbeed and Awdal are BFI with Watch
• Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2100 kcal ppp day• Water Access: Poor water availability , trucked water of high price than the normal., in Sool Plateau, Hawd and Nugal valley• Destitution/Displacement: pastoral destitution from rural diffused• Coping: distress strategies increasing• Livelihood Assets: increased, but below baseline
Main Contributing Factors: Decreasing asset holding due to high off-take during Jilaal season Lack of milk production (camel) Reduced household income from own production (livestock/ milk sales) High indebtedness (loans) Increased expenditure on water for both livestock and human.
MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONESMAP 1: IPC, Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC, Deyr 2010/11
IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts
NW Regions Affected Districts
UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 10 Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Awdal Baki 16,923 0 0 0 0 Borama 132,695 0 0 0 0 Lughaye 22,094 0 0 0 0 Zeylac 22,801 0 0 0 0
Sub-total 194,513 0 0 0 0 Woqooyi Galbeed Berbera 18,683 0 0 0 0 Gebiley 53,717 0 0 0 0 Hargeysa 137,513 0 0 0 0
Sub-total 209,913 0 0 0 0 Togdheer Burco 191,748 0 0 12,000 0 Buuhoodle 28,821 0 0 2,000 0 Owdweyne 30,924 0 0 2,000 0 Sheikh 27,400 0 0 0 0
Sub-total 278,893 0 0 16,000 0 Sanaag Ceel Afweyn 53,638 1,000 1,000 5,000 1,000 Ceerigaabo 83,748 3,000 3,000 6,000 4,000 Laasqoray/Badhan 76,902 12,000 11,000 14,000 11,000
Sub-total 214,288 16,000 15,000 25,000 16,000 Sool Caynabo 24,026 0 0 2,000 0 Laas Caanood 50,606 0 0 4,000 0 Taleex 20,983 1,000 1,000 2,000 1,000 Xudun 15,528 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Sub-total 111,143 2,000 2,000 9,000 2,000 Grand Total 1,008,750 18,000 17,000 50,000 18,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 35,000 68,000
IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones
NW Region Affected Livelihood Zones
Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HEGU 10 Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
AwdalNW Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle 76,159 0 0 0 0Fishing 1,149 0 0 0 0Golis Pastoral 74,592 0 0 0 0Guban Pastoral 42,612 0 0 0 0
Sub-total 194,513 0 0 0 0Woqooyi GalbeedFishing 1,437 0 0 0 0Golis Pastoral 67,455 0 0 0 0Hawd Pastoral 70,830 0 0 0 0NWAgro-past: Sorghum, cattle 70,191 0 0 0 0
Sub-total 209,913 0 0 0 0Togdheer
Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel 23,698 0 0 0 0
Hawd Pastoral 223,347 0 0 14,000 0Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 11,984 0 0 2,000 0
Togdheer Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle 19,864 0 0 0 0
Sub-total 278,893 0 0 16,000 0SanaagFishing 15,193 0 0 0 0
Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel 56,596 4,000 0 8,000 0
Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats 30,415 3,000 0 4,000 0Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 37,396 0 0 3,000 0
Potato Zone & Vegetables 7,052 0 0 0 0Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 61,347 9,000 9,000 10,000 10,000Destitute pastoralists 6,289 0 6,000 0 6,000
Sub-total 214,288 16,000 15,000 25,000 16,000SoolHawd Pastoral 30,108 0 0 2,000 0Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel 72,608 0 0 5,000 0
Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 7,697 2,000 1,000 2,000 1,000Destitute pastoralists 730 0 1,000 0 1,000
Sub-total 111,143 2,000 2,000 9,000 2,000GRAND TOTAL 1,008,750 18,000 17,000 50,000 18,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 35,000 68,000
District UNDP 2005 Urban Population
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Deyr ‘10/11
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Deyr ‘10/11
Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population
Deyr ‘10/11
Awdal Baki 8,577 0 0 0Borama 82,921 0 0 0Lughaye 14,010 0 0 0Zeylac 5,434 0 0 0
Sub-Total 110,942 0 0 0Woqooyi Galbeed Berbera 42,070 0 0 0Gebiley 25,847 0 0 0Hargeysa 422,515 0 0 0
Sub-Total 490,432 0 0 0Togdheer Burco 96,463 0 0 0Buuhoodle 9,607 0 0 0Owdweyne 11,107 0 0 0Sheikh 6,225 0 0 0
Sub-Total 123,402 0 0 0Sanaag Badhan 7,322 2,000 2,000 55Ceel Afweyn 12,159 4,000 3,000 58Ceerigaabo 31,098 10,000 7,000 55Laasqoray 5,500 2,000 1,000 55
Sub-Total 56,079 18,000 13,000 55Sool Caynabo 6,676 3,000 0 45Laas Caanood 24,830 12,000 0 48Taleex 4,371 2,000 0 46Xudun 3,257 2,000 0 61
Sub-Total 39,134 19,000 0 49
IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District
The End