North West Youth Unemployment

Dave SimmondsCentre for Economic & Social Inclusion

Almost the worst ...

Young people hit the hardest

(UK percentage point change)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Recession 16-24 (left axis) 25-64 (left axis)

Hit over 18s the hardest

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24Age

Unemployed Change in number of unemployed since Apr 2007-Mar 2008

Long-term unemployment

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jul-

05

Oct

-05

Jan

-06

Apr-

06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan

-07

Apr-

07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Apr-

08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Apr-

09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Apr-

10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Apr-

11

Jul-

11

Up to 6 months Over 6 and up to 12 months Over 12 months Recession

North West young people in education and the labour force, Spring 2011Labour market participation

Ed

uc

ati

on

pa

rtic

ipa

tio

nN

ot

en

rolle

dIn

Le

arn

ing

In employment ILO unemployed Inactive

NEET147,000

LearningParticipation47%UK 48%

Not inLearning53%UK 52%

76,0009%

71,0008%

40,0005%

How is the North West different from the UK?

Only 25% NEET not claiming benefits

NW Youth Claimants

NW Youth claimant count doubled now back to recession level

24% of North West young JSA are long-term

15,000

Employer demand: A gloomy picture, but some occupations are

doing better Analysed JCP vacancies and new claims for

26 occupational groups Half of them are either good or not bad For example:

– Elementary: administration, cleaning, security– Operatives: Process, plant & machine,

assemblers, construction, drivers, mobile machine

– Sales related– Skilled: metal, textile etc– Caring personal services

Apprenticeships in GM(% of young people starting)

14.6%

10.5%

7.3%

11.5%10.6%

14.3% 13.9%14.9%

11.6%11.1%

9.1%

North West, 12.2%

National, 9.9%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Bolto

n

Bury

Manchester

Oldh

am

Rochdale

Salfo

rd

Stockport

Tameside

Trafford

Wiga

n GM

Challenges for NW

Increase ‘learning participation’ 16/17 NEETs – learning + workEmployer demand for young people,

especially new ApprenticeshipsAccess to support for non-JSA claimantsPre-Work Programme - helping Jobcentre

PlusWork Programme – maximise performance

A million reasons to act Wage subsidies to create temporary

jobs for Work Programme young people

Preparing school leavers for world of work:• Delivering high quality careers

advice Increasing recruitment of young

people:• Increase apprenticeships for

unemployed A single 16-24 Youth Employment and

Skills service

The Work Programme Challenge

Performance expectations: high in a difficult labour market

Finance: recognition of economy and local economies

Capacity and capability: skilled staff and stimulating innovation, especially in-work support

Supply chain: difficult period, now need to invest Partnership and co-operation: local authorities,

skills, health, housing etc + Primes working together Scrutiny and transparency: the more the better Customers: coping with fears and meeting

expectations A high performing Work Programme means

fewer long-term unemployed